This is ready-made evidence. But also by measuring along the line of sight, the results were very close. I measured Sirsa to Mian Channu, with a right aligned dog-leg.
Ooh, steady up.
Indian supersonic missile reached Mian Channu in Pakistan : ISPR
- Thread starter Tatvamasi
- Start date
True, it has never been tested. Nuclear capable is the correct definition.
However, that also puts some responsibility on decision-makers on the other side. They have to figure out what missile it is; in that situation, that is a matter of minutes and seconds.
There's no way to know if that was indeed the trajectory the missile took though.
The timestamps are explained by @Hellfire's hints- It's accurate, it's nuclear, you can't react as fast.
The speed of the missile ensures that any decision they make in response will only happen after the missile's done its job.
Anyway, regardless of whether we make a counterforce or countervalue strike, it's gonna be massive.
Even if we fire a nuke Brahmos and the Pakistanis decide to wait for impact before they make their decision, it's only 1 nuke and does not degrade their own first strike capabilities. If we launch merely 1 nuke and wait for their response, then we are the stupid ones. So any nuclear strike's gonna have to be massive or nothing, there won't be any space in between. Now what "massive" means in the subcontinent's context, that's anybody's guess, but it's definitely gonna be more than 1 nuke.
I will say that only "evidence" provided is from Pakistan... We do not know if it is truth or a lie or a mistake. The verified facts are these :
1. Missile landed or crashed in Mian Chunnu
2. Missile was not having a warhead judging by the extent of damage
3. Missile was Brahmos
Rest, are all allegations of Pakistan which may or may not be correct. Rajnath and MoD's statements lack any facts.
My take is, it is not known if this was a genuine mistake or a deliberate action.
That being said, even if it were an accident, it has reduced the threshold of missile exchange (nuclear or conventional) among two countries.
It is very much possible to make a Premier Padmini self-driving using same kits that which Waymo uses to make Lexus RX 350 self driving.
It tells us the crux of your stupidity. You have seen a Lexus RX 350 being retrofitted to be a self-driving car and you are arguing Premier Padmini cannot be made such. Funny!
Learn basic of probablity before making such stupid arguments. Especially Bayesian reasoning. LOL!
Lastly, learn to know difference between "possible" and "capable". They are not same.
"Accidental launch is impossible." (This is indeed a stupid statement)
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It is a manual process so it cannot go wrong. ..... Said no one ever!
I mean those who have lived in 70s or 80s India can probably attest to it: How many accidents used to happen due to manual signaling in railways?
I agree completely, but am not sure why you are reacting to my post.
That post was only to illustrate the point that there was very little time to react, on the part of the Pakistanis, and that such a reaction time in the face of an unknown threat would be a real danger. That, funnily enough, is exactly the same as your opinion.
None of your three points above is contradicted by this.
If you believe that the timeframes are incorrect in the Pakistani graph, and that it took a different route, and a different trajectory, and therefore a different flight duration, we can talk about it.
Is that what it is?
I am merely commenting and not reacting.
I find pakistan's version a little hard to swallow though.
Here is why
They say that missile was in their airspace for some 3 minutes and 44 seconds. Total distance it covered in Pakistan's territory was 124 KM. This is roughly 1.6 mach on ground speed.. Unless it was manuvering like hell which makes no sense. Ramjets give optimal performance in 2-4 mach number range of speed. While this may explain the why the missile never reached any military target, as it ran out of fuel due to inefficient flight speed; it also makes us wonder if this data is correct or not? Missiles are expected to operate optimally.
Why will they give incorrect data? I do not know. May be to put the flight trajectory closer to airplanes than it actually was? So that they can make a diplomatic hue and cry? There is one upcoming OIC event, I guess they will love to make hue and cry about how India put Saudi Arabia and Qatar's airlines in danger by brining missile's trajectory closer to airlines than it actually was..
PS : Its all speculation... Which is another way of saying, I am not at all sure.
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PPS : I am not implying that this incidence was done by pakistan itself in any capacity.
Yep I agree....if they detect, they see its one and (assuming no hotline msg arrived) will wait to see what that is.
If they dont detect (say ground hug sneak attack and no aerial assets on their end airborne looking at that particuar sector, which is very likely)...then the whole thing is redundant as they only have the after-effect to respond to.
But in larger analysis above this kind of thing:
In worst case salvo situation (for them), even then its not hair trigger stuff at all.....as keeping stuff on hair trigger makes it magnitudes more detectable and vulnerable to a first strike.
If you want survivability and deterrence of own warheads....they need to be kept de-mated and off hair trigger status as far as possible.
i.e components stored separately (with relevant organisation of decoys etc as well) like the bean and eggshell game made larger to hedge the most against the opponents detection capability and probability analysis.
Simply put Pakistan does not have the strategic depth or warhead stockpile that US or Russia have. (In fact no country does outside those 2).
Those are the only two countries that can afford to keep land based systems on some level of hair trigger, mostly precipitated by those (apparently ~ 1k on each side) warheads exposure and vulnerability to begin with...and the inertia from cold war of having these to begin with.
....i.e a use or lose equation concerning those specific warheads, thus largely they are tasked with non-strategic targets (mostly tasked with counterforce on the likely opponent stockpiles) as well.
Changing this equation somewhat (from a status quo) was largely basis of one pressure lever the US elected for under Reagan in the 80s...in Europe...that the US earlier denied itself under larger detente reached post-SALT.
But it was a full strategic decision, rather than response to any more relative fly swat incident.
Yeah I'm talking land based stuff only (even regarding US and USSR case for what is vulnerable and thus hair trigger above water)
SSBNs are sweet spot of hair trigger + survivability basically...whole different thing to get into.
.....Pakistan has 20 billion USD in total savings (stuck as it is for 20 years too) for a population and socio-economic complex it has...
....its not getting SSBNs and SLBMs any time soon.
Road mobile TELs and trains etc...with warhead kept mated and hair trigger alert....like maybe they have a certain % of those....but again they know that (hair trigger) makes them lot more detectable by all kind of intel assets....given all kind of things that spread around a control system's human and non-human factors.
It is fine balance on keeping stuff spread and hedged....but close enough for assembly and delivery if the bluff is called.....but they wont have the 10 - 20% (however many of these are SSBN vs land ) ratio of hair trigger that US and Russia employ from inertia of cold war stockpile. They don't have the budget either to mitigate strategic problems of that.
That is hilarious .... how did you bring alive the Dinosaur and set it on Super Cruise?
Yes, you have a point. 124 kms in 3 minutes 44 doesn't compute.
Again, it is difficult to disagree. Why the data doesn't match what should have been is curious.
I suspect things will be much clearer once more data is available.
If they had actually tracked it, they would have shot it down. They didn't. The time is a random number given for domestic consumption.
Once you remove the warhead, you have to replace it with dead weight to keep the CG limits in control. IMHO, in this missile, they had filled up the warhead section with some other kind of liquid explosive.
But why would GOI authorize a strike inside Pakistan now?
If there was some HVT then Pakistan would have retaliated, like in Balakot.
testing Pakistan's reediness could be one reason
testing world's response is other , due to Russia Ukraine conflict.
This is my assessment, I think it was a sabotage.