Indian supersonic missile reached Mian Channu in Pakistan : ISPR

This is my assessment, I think it was a sabotage.
Difference between a sabotage and an accident is that of intent. Even modern courts find establishing intent very hard and often it is the reason why many guilty people walk free. With so little information, it is hard to know if it was an accident or a sabotage.
 
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But why would GOI authorize a strike inside Pakistan now?
If there was some HVT then Pakistan would have retaliated, like in Balakot.

testing Pakistan's reediness could be one reason
testing world's response is other , due to Russia Ukraine conflict.

No clue. Could be to send a message. Test their new capabilities. Who knows?

Maybe the PA was doing something we didn't like.

This is my assessment, I think it was a sabotage.

I don't believe it is, because someone on the base would notice. To launch a missile, a lot of personnel are needed.
 
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My take is, it is not known if this was a genuine mistake or a deliberate action.
Obviously a missile control failure, India has no reason to launch such a probe against Pakistan at this point in time,
Once you remove the warhead, you have to replace it with dead weight to keep the CG limits in control. IMHO, in this missile, they had filled up the warhead section with some other kind of liquid explosive.
It's not that troublesome, just change the missile flight control
 
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The range of Brahmos from the very begining was over 700kms. intial announcement for 290kms was to avoid MTCR which restricted range to below 300kms.
No, the range of Brahmos should be around 300-450KM, India tested 450KM Brahmos last year, but it failed,
 
We have conflict with Chinese but we both are dealing in a mature way and we hope we can reach a solution with Chinese .
The only answer is that China is stronger than India, so India does not want the conflict to escalate, India is stronger than Pakistan, so India can escalate the conflict recklessly
 
The only answer is that China is stronger than India, so India does not want the conflict to escalate, India is stronger than Pakistan, so India can escalate the conflict recklessly
Neither is China strong enough to prevail over India nor is India strong enough to prevail over Pakistan. That's the reason why you have the present situation which can well be described as a stalemate.
 
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This wasn't a screw-up. It was a deliberate launch.

Missiles don't just get into launch positions and accidentally launch. The fact that the missile itself flew all that way says even a target was selected before the launch. Without a target, it's unlikely for it to launch either. Even the trajectory has to be pre-decided.

Missiles aren't like guns, you can't accidentally press the trigger and make it go off.
But one of the most important questions is why Brahmos flew in India for a while and then turned to Pakistan, which not only lost the energy of the missile, but also increased the warning time of Pakistan.
I think it's a malfunction. BrahMos uses a ramjet with air intake on the nose, which makes it impossible to install a large synthetic aperture radar and has no terrain matching ability.
I usually read official reports. I have seen this channel. There are many specious things in it. There are many mistakes and it is not rigorous.
 
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I usually read official reports. I have seen this channel. There are many specious things in it. There are many mistakes and it is not rigorous.
There are a couple of things you need to factor in before you arrive at a decision not only on Brahmos but other missiles of India , especially Brahmos.

To begin with India signed a JV with Russia for production of Brahmos way back in 1998 - 99 when India was not yet a member of MTCR but Russia was , which meant that any missile exported by a member nation to a non member nation or manufactured under ToT must necessarily be under 300 kms of range .

As you may be aware the Brahmos is based on the Onyx missile of Russia which has variants ranging from 300-800 kms ( 800 kms version was inducted by Russia in 2018-19 IIRC ) . After India was made a member of the MTCR in 2019 ( which China is not ) , we immediately started work on expanding the envelope of the range .

Almost overnight we had the 400 kms , 450 kms etc being tested successfully & inducted. We'd be testing the 800 kms version shortly. Please note that the overall dimensions of the missile remains the same . What does that tell you ? Moreover even when we declared the range as 300 kms officially , pls tell me which nation , leave alone India actually makes an honest declaration about these details. What does that tell you ?

THe fact of the matter is that these very missiles with ranges as described above were always available with us but we couldn't declare them openly due to restrictions of the MTCR which would've landed Russia in a spot . Ever since India's been accepted into the MTCR no such restrictions apply.

Unlike you , I don't think China was ever under any illusions then & now as to the true range & capabilities of the Brahmos as with other missiles in our inventory which they've pretty much called out whenever they wanted to .

Furthermore , as of now under the JV only the ramjet & the guidance system comes from Russia with the rest having been successfully indigenized. The ramjet & guidance system too could've been replaced by Indian ones except under the provisions of the JV we can't do so & the Russians have refused to oblige us. That's also why we haven't developed a similar platform as that would go against the letter & spirit of our agreement with Russia.

This is also why Russia trusts us with their latest equipment unlike China which has a history of reverse engineering such stuff & selling it internationally by competing & undercutting the Russians. This is also why we export these missiles to other countries viz Philippines under the JV after clearance from Russia .

We expect to be testing the Hypersonic version of the Brahmos in a couple of years . This again is based on the Russian Hypersonic Missile Zircon / Tsirkon. Apart from that we're co operating with Russia on other fields as the SFDR , SLBM , SSBM / SSN , etc .

FInally that content creator is a pretty trusted source . I've rarely seen him exaggerate performance of Indian weapons or platforms . He can also be critical about our shortcomings which he has been on various occasions. Unless of course you're referring to his videos on Chinese or Pakistani weapons & platforms about which he doesn't have a high opinion.

Trust that clarifies.
 
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But one of the most important questions is why Brahmos flew in India for a while and then turned to Pakistan, which not only lost the energy of the missile, but also increased the warning time of Pakistan.
I think it's a malfunction.

Changing directions is a pretty standard behaviour for this missile. It can accelerate or decelerate as necessary to maintain speed. If you are basing your malfunction theory on direction, then that would be incorrect.

If it is an accidental launch, it's only possible from the IAF's side, because the pilot has full control over the missile. If it's a ground launch, it's impossible for it to be an accidental launch because of the number of people involved in the launch process, and the launch process itself has checks and balances.

I usually read official reports. I have seen this channel. There are many specious things in it. There are many mistakes and it is not rigorous.

We have currently achieved two standards, 400Km and 450Km. 400Km was the original range of the 290Km export version. All it needed was an extra fuel line into a sealed fuel tank, it's a field upgrade. To surpass those standards, we can now import Russian standards, 650+Km and 800+Km, which are non-export standards, but an exception is being made for India.

"The operational Oniks cruise missile has been used as the basis to develop a new version, the Oniks-M, with the 800km maximum range capability," one of the sources told TASS.
 
Changing directions is a pretty standard behaviour for this missile. It can accelerate or decelerate as necessary to maintain speed. If you are basing your malfunction theory on direction, then that would be incorrect.

If it is an accidental launch, it's only possible from the IAF's side, because the pilot has full control over the missile. If it's a ground launch, it's impossible for it to be an accidental launch because of the number of people involved in the launch process, and the launch process itself has checks and balances.
Generally speaking, the missile turns to avoid the enemy's air defense system or route planning, but I don't see the purpose of this missile's sharp turn in the Indian interior.
Secondly, you say that the missile can be controlled by ground personnel, what is the premise, provided that the missile is controlled and the steering gear of the missile is not damaged
But it's clear that the missile has gone out of control
We have currently achieved two standards, 400Km and 450Km. 400Km was the original range of the 290Km export version. All it needed was an extra fuel line into a sealed fuel tank, it's a field upgrade. To surpass those standards, we can now import Russian standards, 650+Km and 800+Km, which are non-export standards, but an exception is being made for India.
I haven't seen any official Indian reports, and I don't think it's accurate considering India's military transparency is quite high, otherwise India wouldn't be vigorously developing Dreadnought cruise missiles.
Secondly, the TASS report said that Russia has developed a range-extending version of the P800, reaching 800KM, without mentioning India.
 
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Generally speaking, the missile turns to avoid the enemy's air defense system or route planning, but I don't see the purpose of this missile's sharp turn in the Indian interior.

It's not necessarily correct information. The timestamps also indicate a subsonic cruise, not supersonic. Should be fake.

I wouldn't give too much importance to what Pakistan claims.

Secondly, you say that the missile can be controlled by ground personnel, what is the premise, provided that the missile is controlled and the steering gear of the missile is not damaged

The missile is not remotely piloted, it can only be reassigned to new targets in flight.

But I was referring to the launch sequence, which is manually controlled.

But it's clear that the missile has gone out of control

Why?

I haven't seen any official Indian reports, and I don't think it's accurate considering India's military transparency is quite high, otherwise India wouldn't be vigorously developing Dreadnought cruise missiles.


Secondly, the TASS report said that Russia has developed a range-extending version of the P800, reaching 800KM, without mentioning India.

It's their own version. There is no need to mention India in that report because Indian development is independent from the Russian one. It's like Su-27 and Su-30MKI. Once the Russians finish development of their version, then development of our version will begin.
 
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There are a couple of things you need to factor in before you arrive at a decision not only on Brahmos but other missiles of India , especially Brahmos.

To begin with India signed a JV with Russia for production of Brahmos way back in 1998 - 99 when India was not yet a member of MTCR but Russia was , which meant that any missile exported by a member nation to a non member nation or manufactured under ToT must necessarily be under 300 kms of range .

As you may be aware the Brahmos is based on the Onyx missile of Russia which has variants ranging from 300-800 kms ( 800 kms version was inducted by Russia in 2018-19 IIRC ) . After India was made a member of the MTCR in 2019 ( which China is not ) , we immediately started work on expanding the envelope of the range .

Almost overnight we had the 400 kms , 450 kms etc being tested successfully & inducted. We'd be testing the 800 kms version shortly. Please note that the overall dimensions of the missile remains the same . What does that tell you ? Moreover even when we declared the range as 300 kms officially , pls tell me which nation , leave alone India actually makes an honest declaration about these details. What does that tell you ?

THe fact of the matter is that these very missiles with ranges as described above were always available with us but we couldn't declare them openly due to restrictions of the MTCR which would've landed Russia in a spot . Ever since India's been accepted into the MTCR no such restrictions apply.

Unlike you , I don't think China was ever under any illusions then & now as to the true range & capabilities of the Brahmos as with other missiles in our inventory which they've pretty much called out whenever they wanted to .

Furthermore , as of now under the JV only the ramjet & the guidance system comes from Russia with the rest having been successfully indigenized. The ramjet & guidance system too could've been replaced by Indian ones except under the provisions of the JV we can't do so & the Russians have refused to oblige us. That's also why we haven't developed a similar platform as that would go against the letter & spirit of our agreement with Russia.

This is also why Russia trusts us with their latest equipment unlike China which has a history of reverse engineering such stuff & selling it internationally by competing & undercutting the Russians. This is also why we export these missiles to other countries viz Philippines under the JV after clearance from Russia .

We expect to be testing the Hypersonic version of the Brahmos in a couple of years . This again is based on the Russian Hypersonic Missile Zircon / Tsirkon. Apart from that we're co operating with Russia on other fields as the SFDR , SLBM , SSBM / SSN , etc .

FInally that content creator is a pretty trusted source . I've rarely seen him exaggerate performance of Indian weapons or platforms . He can also be critical about our shortcomings which he has been on various occasions. Unless of course you're referring to his videos on Chinese or Pakistani weapons & platforms about which he doesn't have a high opinion.

Trust that clarifies.
you're basically yelling,
Saying BrahMos is powerful, China should be afraid, India has many secret weapons,

My answer is that BrahMos is already behind the times. At the end of the Cold War, he was very powerful, but now, a person without synthetic aperture radar, without terrain matching ability, relying only on high speed, wants to penetrate the modern air defense network (with CEC capability), the probability is basically zero

It can be seen from the current Russian-Ukrainian war that Russia uses a large number of 3M54 and Iskander, but does not use the P800. Why, because the P800 itself is not suitable for land-based cruise missiles
 
you're basically yelling,
That's your interpretation. If informing you of the developments in Indian military is yelling , then you've no idea what yelling is.

Saying BrahMos is powerful, China should be afraid, India has many secret weapons,
Whether China should be afraid or not is upto China . Btw what secret weapons are you talking of ? All this information is in the public domain.

My answer is that BrahMos is already behind the times. At the end of the Cold War, he was very powerful, but now, a person without synthetic aperture radar, without terrain matching ability, relying only on high speed, wants to penetrate the modern air defense network (with CEC capability), the probability is basically zero
What makes you think Brahmos lacks TERCOM ? Besides what makes you also think that supersonic cruise missiles have a good anti missile defence ? Pls enlighten me .


It can be seen from the current Russian-Ukrainian war that Russia uses a large number of 3M54 and Iskander, but does not use the P800. Why, because the P800 itself is not suitable for land-based cruise missiles
It could also be because the job is accomplished using those missiles you've named & there's no reason to use supersonic CMs .

Besides the P-800 given it's costs would be used for HVTs . There's a reason why countries have subsonic CMs even when they have supersonic CMs.
 
Since the cruise missile had been launched from near Sirsa, it would have almost certainly been identified by Pakistan’s air defence network as a BrahMos air launched cruise missile (ALCM). That is because Sirsa is home to a major air force base, but not to any army BrahMos units, which are restricted to the strike corps.



Thirdly, the violation of Indian launch protocols is not a matter of grave concern in an accidental BrahMos ALCM launch. Unlike in the launch of a strategic, nuclear-tipped ballistic missile, where a two-person launch protocol is mandatory, this is not so in the case of a BrahMos ALCM launched from a Sukhoi-30MKI fighter.



In the latter case, once armament is loaded and activated, there is no requirement for a two-person protocol to protect its launch. Since there is always the possibility of one pilot being rendered casualty and, therefore, unable to play his role in triggering a launch sequence, a single-person firing protocol is regarded as sufficient for an ALCM.

Kahaani mein twist!!

With so much action, how can Shukla be left behind?