INS Vikrant (IAC1) & INS Vikramaditya - News & Discussions

[randomradio]

We neither have the funds, infrastructure nor intention to match the PLAN ship for ship. If we attempt to do that, we will bankrupt ourselves. Leave that to the USN & JMSDF to worry about.

We don't need to. But we need to match their presence in the IOR, and that's 3-4 carriers at the minimum. They will end up with anywhere between 12 and 24 by the time we get Vikrant II and III.

In the IOR, the PLAN is an out-of-area power. The way to deal with such a power is through Sea Denial, not Sea Control. Their ability to fight & resupply a naval battle in the IOR will depend on whether or not we manage to lock down the various chokepoints like Malacca, Sunda etc.

I doubt India will be able to do that effectively.

That's why IN still only plans for a 3-carrier fleet. They know we cannot compete with the Chinese on mass. If we build 4 carriers, PLAN will build 10. If they want, they can launch construction on 4-5 Shandong-class carriers right now, and before we even finish the keel-laying of Vikrant-II, all of them will already be in sea trials. We cannot compete.

IN wants 6 carriers. Even when the ADS was first thought of, the navy expected 4 ships apart from Vikramaditya.

Here's an interesting article:

'India needs 6 carriers like the Vikrant'

'... To ensure that the vast Indian Ocean Region remain peaceful.'

www.rediff.com

"India needs to have a total of 6 carriers like the Vikrant to ensure that the vast areas of the Indian Ocean Region remain peaceful -- two each on the eastern and western seaboards while two can be at rest in the docks or on maintenance," says Rear Admiral Mohanan.

Depends what they want from it. By the way, from the recent DEFEXPO:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582314359703089153

Just a few months back, Rajnath Singh was saying that the US is transferring a major technology to India. Wonder what that could be?

Too early for EMALS. I'm guessing F414 or UAVs.

 

[Parthu]

We don't need to. But we need to match their presence in the IOR, and that's 3-4 carriers at the minimum. They will end up with anywhere between 12 and 24 by the time we get Vikrant II and III.

If our Sea Denial strategy fails and it comes down to fighting PLAN ship for ship, we've already lost.

Because if 3-4 PLAN carriers engage us inside IOR proper, it would also mean about 30-40 large surface combatants each packing 100+ missiles & a dozen PLAN SSNs have also made it through. We cannot fight those odds.

I doubt India will be able to do that effectively.

If we have SSNs in hand, along with infrastructure like Fish Hook IUSS/SOSUS on our side, we can. The geography favours our defence, and we'd be fools if we don't take advantage of that.

Not to mention, choking these straits is the only way to cut off China's energy supply. If we don't do that, over a long enough period, the Chinese industrial machine will out-produce everybody combined. We cannot win that war.

IN wants 6 carriers. Even when the ADS was first thought of, the navy expected 4 ships apart from Vikramaditya.

Here's an interesting article:

'India needs 6 carriers like the Vikrant'

'... To ensure that the vast Indian Ocean Region remain peaceful.'

www.rediff.com

"India needs to have a total of 6 carriers like the Vikrant to ensure that the vast areas of the Indian Ocean Region remain peaceful -- two each on the eastern and western seaboards while two can be at rest in the docks or on maintenance," says Rear Admiral Mohanan.

There are several viewpoints within Navy leadership, current & former. Some say 6 carriers, others say we don't need any more carriers at all, we need SSNs instead. There's several different schools of thought within IN, as is the case with any sizeable Navy.

The official requirement in modern times is for a 3-carrier fleet, and actually even achieving that over a sustained period will not happen till post 2045.

Anything beyond that is too far in the future to say anything. It's possible the Chinese threat completely dissipates by that point - hard to estimate what the mindset and requirement will be.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Another reason why 2030 is assumed to be the date from where the Chinese are expected to launch their countdown for their campaign against Taiwan & India followed by the other ones is their dependence on Fossil fuels.

By 2030 , they're expected to make their transition to EVs by > 75% . You may be surprised to learn that China has substantial oil & gas reserves & began importing only in the 1990s . Till date their domestic production caters to 20-22% of their total needs.

By 2030 they'd need Malacca only for exports of their finished goods & imports of raw materials not fossil fuels.

Another point which comes to mind is their AC fleet . They may well field 6 by 2030 or more but we've no idea how effective their carrier based fighters or indeed their CBGs are . Initial reports indicate sub optimal performance of both their fighters & pilots which'd no doubt pick up but to train a whole corpus of troops & expect them to gain proficiency in such a vital arm of ones offensive strategy with no long standing tradition of it , hence no institutional memories & then to expect them to achieve their targets on which other goals / end goals depend in a strict time bound schedule is a tall ask indeed.

Could well be their Achilles heel . This video is somewhat instructive in that regard .

 

[Bali78]

Another reason why 2030 is assumed to be the date from where the Chinese are expected to launch their countdown for their campaign against Taiwan & India followed by the other ones is their dependence on Fossil fuels.

By 2030 , they're expected to make their transition to EVs by > 75% . You may be surprised to learn that China has substantial oil & gas reserves & began importing only in the 1990s . Till date their domestic production caters to 20-22% of their total needs.

By 2030 they'd need Malacca only for exports of their finished goods & imports of raw materials not fossil fuels.

Another point which comes to mind is their AC fleet . They may well field 6 by 2030 or more but we've no idea how effective their carrier based fighters or indeed their CBGs are . Initial reports indicate sub optimal performance of both their fighters & pilots which'd no doubt pick up but to train a whole corpus of troops & expect them to gain proficiency in such a vital arm of ones offensive strategy with no long standing tradition of it , hence no institutional memories & then to expect them to achieve their targets on which other goals / end goals depend in a strict time bound schedule is a tall ask indeed.

Could well be their Achilles heel . This video is somewhat instructive in that regard .

If they wait till 2030, they would have lost most of their advantages by then. By that time US and Europe would have have arranged for alternate supply chains including TSMC. India would have been in relatively stronger position, both militarily and economically.

Question is can they survive without their exports and sanctions by US? If oil is the only issue, they can always get as much oil as they want from Russia in case Malaca straits is choked. Gwadar is another option.

 

[_Anonymous_]

If they wait till 2030, they would have lost most of their advantages by then. By that time US and Europe would have have arranged for alternate supply chains including TSMC. India would have been in relatively stronger position, both militarily and economically.

They can potentially attack even now but are they in a position to achieve their goals? I think not. What Russia's facing in the Ukraine would've driven home that point even more.

That's the reason why irrespective of the advantages they lose like say in the shift of the SMC to the West principally to the US by TSMC would be taken down as a bitter pill.

Question is can they survive without their exports and sanctions by US?

This is why I wrote they'll have to shore up for the time when universal sanctions will be imposed for their attempted invasion of Taiwan & they prepare for a world of semi isolation if not complete isolation .

That can only happen once they're self sufficient in every sense of the word including food, energy, cutting edge tech like SMC & a self sustaining economy driven on consumption.

They'd take at least a decade to get there give or take a few yrs.

If oil is the only issue, they can always get as much oil as they want from Russia in case Malaca straits is choked. Gwadar is another option.

They can do that now as well yet what's the quantum of oil & gas they're getting from Russia? China's still heavily dependant on supplies from the Gulf.

Gwadar is pretty much ruled out. It was never meant to be so except as a naval base like Hambantota to threaten western interests if access to Malacca was blocked by the Chinese.

It was couched in such a language to misguide observers / OSINT, though I'm guessing India & the Quad figured out it's true purpose pretty early , in fact I'd argue practically everyone across the world did so, except for the clueless inbreds.

If anything CPEC was China's plan to completely inveigle Paxtan into it's sphere of influence which backfired spectacularly. It could've been worse for either parties but as things stand it's bad poised to do worse with the deterioration & diminishing of the Paxtani economy.

 

[Bali78]

They can potentially attack even now but are they in a position to achieve their goals? I think not. What Russia's facing in the Ukraine would've driven home that point even more.

That's the reason why irrespective of the advantages they lose like say in the shift of the SMC to the West principally to the US by TSMC would be taken down as a bitter pill.


This is why I wrote they'll have to shore up for the time when universal sanctions will be imposed for their attempted invasion of Taiwan & they prepare for a world of semi isolation if not complete isolation .

That can only happen once they're self sufficient in every sense of the word including food, energy, cutting edge tech like SMC & a self sustaining economy driven on consumption.

They'd take at least a decade to get there give or take a few yrs.


They can do that now as well yet what's the quantum of oil & gas they're getting from Russia? China's still heavily dependant on supplies from the Gulf.

Gwadar is pretty much ruled out. It was never meant to be so except as a naval base like Hambantota to threaten western interests if access to Malacca was blocked by the Chinese.

It was couched in such a language to misguide observers / OSINT, though I'm guessing India & the Quad figured out it's true purpose pretty early , in fact I'd argue practically everyone across the world did so, except for the clueless inbreds.

If anything CPEC was China's plan to completely inveigle Paxtan into it's sphere of influence which backfired spectacularly. It could've been worse for either parties but as things stand it's bad poised to do worse with the deterioration & diminishing of the Paxtani economy.

China is in a far better position compared to Russia, both militarily as well as economically. So Russia vs Ukraine scenario can't be applied. I'm not even bringing in the terrible mismanagement by the stupid Russian generals.

As far as their economy is concerned, they are getting more and more dependent on the manufacturing sector ( big chunk of their manufacturing is for exports). Their real estate and infrastructure sectors contributed almost 60% of the GDP and now both these sectors are in terrible condition and unlikely become meaningful drivers anytime soon. Yes, they can choose to build high speed train lines in spite of $900 billion debt. But it will only inflate the debt bubble while adding unproductive assets. Currently many of their high speed rails are running at 5% of the installed capacity and with only few dozen passengers.

BRI is a big flop and 25% of the loans are already being discussed for re-structring. So the scope for the steel and cement sector of China doesn't look very bright apart from the companies involved in the construction.

The shifting of TSMC is strategically extremely important. But it's direct economic impact is not much. The real issue will be when every product is moved out in certain capacity to some other country. And the primary reason for this is Covid and not the US vs China relationship. During Covid, we couldn't get even basic stuff like curtain rods, refrigerators, washing machines, flower pots etc. Waiting time varied from few months to more than a year. This exposed the severity of having just one source and that pushed the strategy of China + One. Emperor Xi's chest thumping is just accelerating.
Apple is moving out iPhone and iPad assembly. This itself will cause 10s of billions worth direct loss and there is no reason why others will not follow.

With so many things working against China's economy, there is no way the internal market can sustain. It will just collapse.

Regarding energy, they are still buying a big chunk from Gulf. But in case push coms to shove, Russia has the capacity to support them. Please note in long term, Russia needs China more than China needs Russia. I agree with you regarding Gwadar. However, it can still be used to supply a tiny portion of the requirement. After all how much oil can be transported without train.

Basically Xi phucked up big time. He should have waited till 2030 before showing his intentions.

 

[randomradio]

Regarding energy, they are still buying a big chunk from Gulf. But in case push coms to shove, Russia has the capacity to support them. Please note in long term, Russia needs China more than China needs Russia. I agree with you regarding Gwadar. However, it can still be used to supply a tiny portion of the requirement. After all how much oil can be transported without train.

China needs 9 million barrels a day in imports, Russia can't provide that without massive expansion of production, but will come with significant depreciation in oil prices due to a supply glut elsewhere. So their only way out is to tap their more expensive reserves until they can replace oil.

Basically Xi phucked up big time. He should have waited till 2030 before showing his intentions.

I don't think he had time until 2030. India and ASEAN would become more powerful challengers by then.

Anyway, it's not a problem for the Chinese, they have all the time in the world right now. The US is completely unprepared, which is why top American generals have been speaking nonsense recently. And the Chinese now have the ability to invade Taiwan.

 

[_Anonymous_]

China is in a far better position compared to Russia, both militarily as well as economically.

Agreed. So are it's adversaries.

So Russia vs Ukraine scenario can't be applied. I'm not even bringing in the terrible mismanagement by the stupid Russian generals.

Less mismanagement by the generals more a bad call by the leadership.

For all the western attempts at equivalence to Hitler , Stalin , Mao & what have you , if any of the latter would've faced what they did a few weeks within the war the leading generals would've been tried & executed by this time or languishing in jails serving long terms now , they would've tested another Tsar Bomba or a lesser equivalent , loaded SSBNs in full view & announced to the world that support for Ukraine would be construed as war on Russia before proceeding to launch the better part of the RuAF & RuA on Ukraine. That'd have been enough to send Europe & US into a tizzy.

Instead Putin goes on the defensive , keeps his best troops in reserve in anticipation of a NATO offensive relying on conscripts to do the heavy lifting in Ukraine with the result Russia is where it is today. It's quite evident that no preparations or war gaming was done . They just went in on somebody's whim & are now stuck there . In fact this war serves as a cautionary tale as to how not to wage a war .

China'd be in the same situation if they would've launched an offensive against India in 2020 . Ditto against Taiwan.

As far as their economy is concerned, they are getting more and more dependent on the manufacturing sector ( big chunk of their manufacturing is for exports). Their real estate and infrastructure sectors contributed almost 60% of the GDP and now both these sectors are in terrible condition and unlikely become meaningful drivers anytime soon. Yes, they can choose to build high speed train lines in spite of $900 billion debt. But it will only inflate the debt bubble while adding unproductive assets. Currently many of their high speed rails are running at 5% of the installed capacity and with only few dozen passengers.

A reset is coming for the real estate sector whereas for infrastructure projects ,they'd have to be scaled down . What shape it'd take is difficult to tell ? In any case the glory days of double digit growth rate yrs of China are over . I don't think anyone in China including the ordinary man is under any illusions about it .

The shift to EV also is a huge game changer. Think of the savings they make on account of expenditure otherwise incurred on fossil fuels. I don't think people are taking as much notice of this development as they ought to be doing.

BRI is a big flop and 25% of the loans are already being discussed for re-structring. So the scope for the steel and cement sector of China doesn't look very bright apart from the companies involved in the construction.

The risk was always there . Up until 2020 they thought they could afford it . They, probably calculated , 15-20% of it going bad would result in them gaining a strategic foothold like in Hambantota. Even these losses would've been accounted for given the high interest rates & other accompanying risks . Evidently they bit off more than they can chew.

The shifting of TSMC is strategically extremely important. But it's direct economic impact is not much. The real issue will be when every product is moved out in certain capacity to some other country. And the primary reason for this is Covid and not the US vs China relationship. During Covid, we couldn't get even basic stuff like curtain rods, refrigerators, washing machines, flower pots etc. Waiting time varied from few months to more than a year. This exposed the severity of having just one source and that pushed the strategy of China + One. Emperor Xi's chest thumping is just accelerating.

In any case TSMC moving out or not hardly matters for the Chinese today as they're out of the loop . What matters for them is how fast they can catch up with the latest state of the art tech in this sector . China moving on Taiwan today merely disrupts the entire SMC industry without them profiting from it in any way .

Apple is moving out iPhone and iPad assembly. This itself will cause 10s of billions worth direct loss and there is no reason why others will not follow.

Would be true of a lot of sectors going ahead . But for the next 5-6 yrs , China'd pull through on the basis of exports only.

With so many things working against China's economy, there is no way the internal market can sustain. It will just collapse.

I wouldn't be so sanguine on that .

Regarding energy, they are still buying a big chunk from Gulf. But in case push coms to shove, Russia has the capacity to support them. Please note in long term, Russia needs China more than China needs Russia.

If China goes into a conflict like it does being dependant on Russia for fuel supplies they'd have already lost the war . Think of the leverage it'd give Russia .

I agree with you regarding Gwadar. However, it can still be used to supply a tiny portion of the requirement. After all how much oil can be transported without train.

There's no construction of pipeline happening whatsoever . All this nearly a decade after CPEC was first announced . The portion in PoK where the pipeline is expected to pass is an extremely volatile seismic zone. Apparently the Wakhan corridor is the ideal place for such a pipeline to pass thru . You know what the situation there is like .

Basically Xi phucked up big time. He should have waited till 2030 before showing his intentions.

Basically their original plan of 2049 was ideal . What they're undertaking today should've been undertaken in 2040 . The world would've been a much more different place then with greed hollowing out the Europeans & the Americans & essentially their will to fight . The rest would've been easy .

 

[_Anonymous_]

In addition to the above , a few additional points.

China is still in the process of building up its amphibious assault group including the paraphernalia required for such an assault. It's slated to come thru by 2028 as per various reports I've read online over the yrs.

Ditto for it's AC fleet.

It's theatreization + modernization plan is also scheduled to be over by 2028 .

More or less the same time schedule is assigned for it's entire transportation sector to get into EV mode. The target being > 75% by 2030.

Add to that contingencies due to recent events like gaining parity or coming near state of art tech in SMC production. Ditto for food production.

Then there's stabilization of the economy moving away from an export oriented model to one driven by internal consumption.

All these will fructify to a great deal by 2028-30 timelines. Hence I believe that's when they'd be in a comfortable position to launch their assault on Taiwan. Comfortable being the key word here after the requisite transition / adjustment.

While your arguments over capitalizing on the existing confusion in the world at the moment is well taken, I'd argue that it's of no use essentially if one can't attain ones goals which I believe China is not in a position to do so now. Moreover with Russia facing what it is & the massive uproar cum backlash against it courtesy the US led alliance would surely not be lost on the Chinese.

Does that preclude any action before 2028-30 by the Chinese ? Certainly not. But the above facts I've listed with an explanation definitely points out to a stronger possibility of China initiating what it does around 2030 taking a couple of yrs as margin for 2028.

@Bali78

 

[Bali78]

Agreed. So are it's adversaries.

Less mismanagement by the generals more a bad call by the leadership.

For all the western attempts at equivalence to Hitler , Stalin , Mao & what have you , if any of the latter would've faced what they did a few weeks within the war the leading generals would've been tried & executed by this time or languishing in jails serving long terms now , they would've tested another Tsar Bomba or a lesser equivalent , loaded SSBNs in full view & announced to the world that support for Ukraine would be construed as war on Russia before proceeding to launch the better part of the RuAF & RuA on Ukraine. That'd have been enough to send Europe & US into a tizzy.

Instead Putin goes on the defensive , keeps his best troops in reserve in anticipation of a NATO offensive relying on conscripts to do the heavy lifting in Ukraine with the result Russia is where it is today. It's quite evident that no preparations or war gaming was done . They just went in on somebody's whim & are now stuck there . In fact this war serves as a cautionary tale as to how not to wage a war .

Agreed.

China'd be in the same situation if they would've launched an offensive against India in 2020 . Ditto against Taiwan.

Not so sure about that.

Nobody ( I mean USA and Europe) cares about any war against India. They would be "keenly watching" while doing business as usual with China.

Regarding war with Taiwan, US and Europe have very few options to exercise. The level of dependency on China is so high, any meaningful sanction on China will be highly counter productive and not practical. So the only option is "Kadi Ninda" with some kind compromise.

A reset is coming for the real estate sector whereas for infrastructure projects ,they'd have to be scaled down . What shape it'd take is difficult to tell ? In any case the glory days of double digit growth rate yrs of China are over . I don't think anyone in China including the ordinary man is under any illusions about it .

You would be surprised how many highly educated Chinese ( I am talking about Stanford and MIT educated) believed that Chinese economic growth cannot slow down. The slowdown is not new and in spite of Chinese governments best efforts signs of slowdown were visible since 2017-18. Yet Chinese folks believed CCP can handle the situation and will be back to high single digit growth if not double digit. However, today the same guys laugh at the 2-3 % official growth rate. My coworkers strongly believe Chinese economy is in recession.

The shift to EV also is a huge game changer. Think of the savings they make on account of expenditure otherwise incurred on fossil fuels. I don't think people are taking as much notice of this development as they ought to be doing.

Agreed. China's electric and PHEV share is 30+%, where as US recently crossed 5% . In fact many countries in Europe have already crossed 10%. EV is a game changer, particularly for countries heavily dependent on imported oil. China identified it pretty quick and moved fast.

The risk was always there . Up until 2020 they thought they could afford it . They, probably calculated , 15-20% of it going bad would result in them gaining a strategic foothold like in Hambantota. Even these losses would've been accounted for given the high interest rates & other accompanying risks . Evidently they bit off more than they can chew.

China never intended to make these projects self sustainable. There were 2 objectives.
1. Create a market outside China to use the additional capacity in steel, cement and construction man power which can't be absorbed internally. Please note there was a huge construction frenzy for Olympics and there was a significant slowdown after that.
2. Sqeeze as much money as possible from these countries ( Pakistan is paying around 7% interest on the dollar loans for CPEC) and if/when they can't payback use the stressed assets for strategic leverage. All the projects were over priced and below par in quality.

Basically the whole plan was created with a win - loss strategy, so the client countries never stood a chance.

China's plan would have worked, if the countries were somewhat financially stable and would have absorbed the losses upto some extent. But in reality, the opposite happened. The 25% loan restructuring is just the tip of the ice berg. I would be very surprised if 20% of these projects turn out to be financially viable.

They didn't bite, they tried to swallow whole goat leg and result is evident .

Would be true of a lot of sectors going ahead . But for the next 5-6 yrs , China'd pull through on the basis of exports only.

Exactly. Instead of reducing dependency on exports, they are becoming more and more dependent on it. It's a vicious circle and their no easy or immediate way out of it. Attracting western sanctions (meaningful) will be death warrant for it's citizens. But the trillion dollar question is " Does Xi care"?

I wouldn't be so sanguine on that .

When I say collapse, I don't mean a collapse like Pakistan or Srilanka. My definition of collapse will be "real economic growth (not CCP growth numbers) below 3% for next 10 years". That will put China in the middle income trap for a very very long time.

If China goes into a conflict like it does being dependant on Russia for fuel supplies they'd have already lost the war . Think of the leverage it'd give Russia .

Everything comes with a price and Russsians will love that.

Basically their original plan of 2049 was ideal . What they're undertaking today should've been undertaken in 2040 . The world would've been a much more different place then with greed hollowing out the Europeans & the Americans & essentially their will to fight . The rest would've been easy .

Completely agree. If they had quietly waited till 2049 and had been prudent in their planning for financial growth, they would have been invincible in every aspect.

 

[Bali78]

In addition to the above , a few additional points.

China is still in the process of building up its amphibious assault group including the paraphernalia required for such an assault. It's slated to come thru by 2028 as per various reports I've read online over the yrs.

Ditto for it's AC fleet.

It's theatreization + modernization plan is also scheduled to be over by 2028 .

More or less the same time schedule is assigned for it's entire transportation sector to get into EV mode. The target being > 75% by 2030.

Add to that contingencies due to recent events like gaining parity or coming near state of art tech in SMC production. Ditto for food production.

Then there's stabilization of the economy moving away from an export oriented model to one driven by internal consumption.

All these will fructify to a great deal by 2028-30 timelines. Hence I believe that's when they'd be in a comfortable position to launch their assault on Taiwan. Comfortable being the key word here after the requisite transition / adjustment.

While your arguments over capitalizing on the existing confusion in the world at the moment is well taken, I'd argue that it's of no use essentially if one can't attain ones goals which I believe China is not in a position to do so now. Moreover with Russia facing what it is & the massive uproar cum backlash against it courtesy the US led alliance would surely not be lost on the Chinese.

Does that preclude any action before 2028-30 by the Chinese ? Certainly not. But the above facts I've listed with an explanation definitely points out to a stronger possibility of China initiating what it does around 2030 taking a couple of yrs as margin for 2028.

@Bali78

Regarding the modernization plan, I don't think we can ever put a exact completion date since war requirements are pretty dynamic and ever changing. Invading Taiwan should not be very difficult considering the huge size of PLAN. Question is who will stop them and how? Can US and allies launch a D-Day type invasion? If yes from where and who will join? The nearest airbase is GUAM. How effective will be US's counterstrike? Will US put it's CBGs at risk? Can US military industrial complex sustain a long war? It has been in sleep mode for decades and has to be revived, which can't happen overnight.

And while the war is on, people all over the world will be queuing in front of stores to buy basic stuff. Will it allow US government to wage/sustain the war? I have seen how the initial public support for Ukraine vanished when the sustained gas price over $6+ was attributed to Ukraine war.

You might have heard about TSMC building two fabs in Arizona ($40 billion) and both phases will be completed by 2026. After that US doesn't give a rat's rear-side about Taiwan. Then China can comfortably invade Taiwan and US will apply all sorts of sanctions to kill Chinese economy without dropping a single bomb.

 

[Bali78]

I don't think he had time until 2030. India and ASEAN would become more powerful challengers by then.

He could have till 2030, if status quo was maintained. Since he prematurely showed his intentions, now everybody will work overtime and his leverage will diminish must faster than what would have happened in normal course.

 

[Fatalis]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602905506313490432

 

[_Anonymous_]

Agreed.

Not so sure about that.

It's very simple actually. Let's leave Taiwan out of the equation for now . Why didn't China go the whole hog in 2020 then ? Answer this question & you'd have the answer to how genuinely prepared they are vis a vis India at the LAC .

Nobody ( I mean USA and Europe) cares about any war against India. They would be "keenly watching" while doing business as usual with China.

Not so sure about Europe as of now , but the US definitely care. I'd draw your attention back to WW-2 & the role played by the former USSR & China in it & how it helped the allies emerge victorious.

The USSR acted like the proverbial sponge absorbing enormous quantities of German offensive before beginning the most spectacular counter attack ever in the history of warfare something for which they haven't received much public recognition in the west although the TTs , academia & military historians there know the truth - it's just that they don't publicise it much lest it eclipses their own performance..

Ditto for China on the Pacific front except they could never counter attack the way the USSR did in Europe but merely acted as a sponge to absorb the worst of the Japanese war Machine keeping a vast majority of them engaged . This made the task of the US that much more easier when it went about it's island hopping expedition.

That's precisely what the US Japan & Taiwan want India to do . Act as a sponge . If we can play the role of a China in WW-2 , before the Chinese launch themselves on Taiwan , there's nothing the US & it's allies would want more . If we can pull off an USSR it'd be the proverbial icing on the cake. Arguably in either scenarios , the Chinese invasion of Taiwan would've to be postponed indefinitely.

So the US has vested interests & is an invested party . Europe'd come around too. It doesn't have a choice. The way things are progressing for them , what with the US phucking the EU's economy & eroding Franco German influence on EU & NATO , it's a choice between the devil & the deep blue sea .

Regarding war with Taiwan, US and Europe have very few options to exercise. The level of dependency on China is so high, any meaningful sanction on China will be highly counter productive and not practical. So the only option is "Kadi Ninda" with some kind compromise.

This'd be true of the present & a few more yrs . With every nation persuing the China + 1 strategy , it's a matter of time before that dependency is vastly scaled down . It's a race against time for all parties concerned be it the US , Europe , the Quad , India , Taiwan or especially China.

You would be surprised how many highly educated Chinese ( I am talking about Stanford and MIT educated) believed that Chinese economic growth cannot slow down. The slowdown is not new and in spite of Chinese governments best efforts signs of slowdown were visible since 2017-18. Yet Chinese folks believed CCP can handle the situation and will be back to high single digit growth if not double digit. However, today the same guys laugh at the 2-3 % official growth rate. My coworkers strongly believe Chinese economy is in recession.

Now , they've only got to get used to it for a long long time . Easier said than done . It's like trying to catch a genie you've unleashed w.r.t a galloping economy , reasonable freedoms of expression , speech etc to now a return to the > 1970's era of political suspicion & repression . Xi has built up a solid internal security mechanism though . I suspect it'd be tested severely in the months & yrs ahead.

Agreed. China's electric and PHEV share is 30+%, where as US recently crossed 5% . In fact many countries in Europe have already crossed 10%. EV is a game changer, particularly for countries heavily dependent on imported oil. China identified it pretty quick and moved fast.

China never intended to make these projects self sustainable. There were 2 objectives.
1. Create a market outside China to use the additional capacity in steel, cement and construction man power which can't be absorbed internally. Please note there was a huge construction frenzy for Olympics and there was a significant slowdown after that.
2. Sqeeze as much money as possible from these countries ( Pakistan is paying around 7% interest on the dollar loans for CPEC) and if/when they can't payback use the stressed assets for strategic leverage. All the projects were over priced and below par in quality.

Basically the whole plan was created with a win - loss strategy, so the client countries never stood a chance.

China's plan would have worked, if the countries were somewhat financially stable and would have absorbed the losses upto some extent. But in reality, the opposite happened. The 25% loan restructuring is just the tip of the ice berg. I would be very surprised if 20% of these projects turn out to be financially viable.

They didn't bite, they tried to swallow whole goat leg and result is evident .

It's a bit of everything - to productively utilize excess capacities , deploy additional industrial resources overland to capture markets & get the local govt there to pick up the tabs at costs of interests so high it basically catered to write offs too . But yes , in a nutshell you've summed up their gameplan & how it unravelled. Not surprisingly there's been little to no mention of the BRI by Xi or the Chinese in the last 2 yrs.

Exactly. Instead of reducing dependency on exports, they are becoming more and more dependent on it. It's a vicious circle and their no easy or immediate way out of it. Attracting western sanctions (meaningful) will be death warrant for it's citizens. But the trillion dollar question is " Does Xi care"?

I'm guessing it's a tightrope walk for Xi . He'd try his best to make the transition away from an exports based economy to an internal consumption driven one . Let's hope for our sakes he succeeds at least modestly . Otherwise the LAC would go live that much sooner.

And even resident optimist isn't sounding that optimistic about our chances there as things stand . It's quite another matter youngsters raised on his overtly optimistic posts are now taking over where he left off .

When I say collapse, I don't mean a collapse like Pakistan or Srilanka. My definition of collapse will be "real economic growth (not CCP growth numbers) below 3% for next 10 years". That will put China in the middle income trap for a very very long time.

Agreed.

Everything comes with a price and Russsians will love that.

The Chinese aren't going to bite . You can be sure of that.

Completely agree. If they had quietly waited till 2049 and had been prudent in their planning for financial growth, they would have been invincible in every aspect.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Regarding the modernization plan, I don't think we can ever put a exact completion date since war requirements are pretty dynamic and ever changing. Invading Taiwan should not be very difficult considering the huge size of PLAN. Question is who will stop them and how? Can US and allies launch a D-Day type invasion? If yes from where and who will join? The nearest airbase is GUAM. How effective will be US's counterstrike? Will US put it's CBGs at risk? Can US military industrial complex sustain a long war? It has been in sleep mode for decades and has to be revived, which can't happen overnight.

Without getting into the nitty gritty / mechanics of the invasion & how's it going to be countered , let's pause to consider empirical truths - how does China want to be remembered in history ? As a nation which while claiming it was merely retaking a renegade province devastated it resulting in total destruction of it's infrastructure & innumerable casualties or was it a surgical operation with minimal damage in the least amount not time.

That's what China is faced with today especially after the Russo Ukrainian war .

And while the war is on, people all over the world will be queuing in front of stores to buy basic stuff. Will it allow US government to wage/sustain the war? I have seen how the initial public support for Ukraine vanished when the sustained gas price over $6+ was attributed to Ukraine war.

Yet that hasn't prevented the US from slacking in it's support to Ukraine. Politicians the world over react typically when it's bad news at the polls not otherwise.

Pls look at their propoganda machines unleashed during the current war , with generous helpings courtesy Paddy & the western contingent here & tell me do you expect things to be the same or 10 times worse in case of a China Taiwan conflict ?

Ofcourse it's to our benefit , so I'm not complaining. There'd be relative silence or sniggering only if the Chinese turn on India before their adventure in Taiwan , believing India got it's comeuppance for what it's stand was during the Ukraine war .

You might have heard about TSMC building two fabs in Arizona ($40 billion) and both phases will be completed by 2026. After that US doesn't give a rat's rear-side about Taiwan. Then China can comfortably invade Taiwan and US will apply all sorts of sanctions to kill Chinese economy without dropping a single bomb.

That's always a possibility but this is now no longer about Taiwan . It's about who rules the world. Could UK + France seek accomodation with Hitler ? Of course they could . They even tried to do so knowing full well he was buying time . We know how that one ended . This'd go the same way.

It's not so much China's take down I'm looking forward to , it's how the US burns itself to achieve this , much like how the UK + France were themselves devasted & dethroned from super power status by the challenger Germany that's to be considered.

There's as much happening behind the scenes as in front of it . We're only commenting on what we can see Or to be more precise - what's shown to us .

 

[randomradio]

Exactly. Instead of reducing dependency on exports, they are becoming more and more dependent on it. It's a vicious circle and their no easy or immediate way out of it. Attracting western sanctions (meaningful) will be death warrant for it's citizens. But the trillion dollar question is " Does Xi care"?

They will make the yuan a reserve currency by then. Both Russia and the Saudis are open to replace the USD with CNY. Most of the GCC should follow. It's time for the Americans to put the Middle East in their place. And China is already a net creditor, with $3T in external assets.

Completely agree. If they had quietly waited till 2049 and had been prudent in their planning for financial growth, they would have been invincible in every aspect.

Their 2049 date is for global economic, political and military domination.

What they are doing now is the right move. Had they waited, other countries would have risen up to act as deterrence, namely India, Indonesia and Vietnam, even Russia. It's not just Taiwan, they need to create new capabilities in the SCS too, which is less likely to happen after 2030, especially with the US, India and Russia militarising. By 2035, the Chinese will be surrounded by three extremely formidable enemies/frenemies. So whatever they wanted to happen needed to be done between 2015 and 2030, and that's playing out now. In fact, I'd say they are doing extremely well playing this game. Literally, no one is prepared, only they are.

As for their economy, it doesn't matter. Xi is basically the new owner of China. The CCP controls everything of note. So China's stepping into the realms of planned economy. It's unclear to what extent, but at least we know Xi intends to take control of food supply by centralising it once again. Meaning, it is very likely that Xi will be the single source for supply of food in China well before 2030.

Fun times:

China orders construction of state-run canteens in self-contained community hubs

Local one-stop shop services will boost state control over food supply, and could be linked to war planning.

www.rfa.org

Then there is the SMC, supply and marketing cooperatives, which is basically a govt-run supermarket.

Decades-old supply and marketing cooperatives get a new lease on life-- Beijing Review

www.bjreview.com

This is the biggest hint for China is going to war. And once these canteens and cooperatives have been fully established by 2025 or so, we can assume that they are now ready for war.

 

[randomradio]

You might have heard about TSMC building two fabs in Arizona ($40 billion) and both phases will be completed by 2026. After that US doesn't give a rat's rear-side about Taiwan. Then China can comfortably invade Taiwan and US will apply all sorts of sanctions to kill Chinese economy without dropping a single bomb.

Taiwan being free is necessary for the US to control the Western Pacific. If that control goes, then China takes over the Western Pacific. Right now, PLAN is bottled in, the US can't allow them to break free.

 

[Tatvamasi]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604330536922910720

 

[marich01]

I do not see much fault in navy's choice. Tradeoff for a bigger 70k ton carrier is time needed for a new plan, which will definitely be longer compared to IAC2 of same size. A catobar variant design will take even longer. To counter chinese cbg we need number up soon, ie time is the constraint here, not the quality. If fronted up with even a shorter cbg with good jets & weapons, china will have to back down. We have seen this against PLA. Their military policy shadow that of the usa without the actual engagement punch.
The only plan that can give the number is repeat order of Vikrant. New AC in 5 years time is a major positive for me. of course the MMRCA, if navy has chosen for 1 already, no problem with a repeat order.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

counter chinese cbg

And here am I, thinking SSNs are a counter to CBGs.