Potential export customer for the Vikrant I guess.
INS Vikrant (IAC1) & INS Vikramaditya - News & Discussions
- Thread starter Ashwin
- Start date
-
- Tags
- aircraft carrier csl iac1 mig-29k
Potential export customer for the Vikrant I guess.
What does Indonesia need a carrier for? Their islands are so spread out east-west that they can fly from land and be able to reach any target they are likely to be interested in.
The onboarding of MILAN delegations (which included many others besides Indonesians) is to impress upon them the notion that we are the resident power & net security provider in the IOR.
What does Indonesia need a carrier for? Their islands are so spread out east-west that they can fly from land and be able to reach any target they are likely to be interested in.
The onboarding of MILAN delegations (which included many others besides Indonesians) is to impress upon them the notion that we are the resident power & net security provider in the IOR.
Carriers are necessary for force projection. Even if their country is large, their interests go beyond their shores, like the South Pacific and the African coast. And with an estimated population of 300 million by 2050, they will be able to afford a sizable military force.
In any case, rumor mill indicates the Indonesian delegation consists of some important people. And they have a plan of building a 300-ship navy. Most of it being frigates and corvettes, but they only need 10-12 bigger ships for a functional CBG.
So big plans require quite a bit of scouting.
Indonesia's $125B air, naval splurge may mean '50 warships' at sea in next 2 years - Breaking Defense
Amidst incursions by China into Indonesia's Extended Economic Zone, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto is looking for a major investment in military gear.
Their aim is to become a blue water navy by 2045. So a cheap Vikrant will meet their goal.
I agree that Indonesia will eventually go for better force projection but I would be surprised if they went with a VIkrant class or any Indian option really. I would expect them to go with one of the South Korean CVX designs.Carriers are necessary for force projection. Even if their country is large, their interests go beyond their shores, like the South Pacific and the African coast. And with an estimated population of 300 million by 2050, they will be able to afford a sizable military force.
In any case, rumor mill indicates the Indonesian delegation consists of some important people. And they have a plan of building a 300-ship navy. Most of it being frigates and corvettes, but they only need 10-12 bigger ships for a functional CBG.
So big plans require quite a bit of scouting.
Indonesia's $125B air, naval splurge may mean '50 warships' at sea in next 2 years - Breaking Defense
Amidst incursions by China into Indonesia's Extended Economic Zone, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto is looking for a major investment in military gear.breakingdefense.com
Their aim is to become a blue water navy by 2045. So a cheap Vikrant will meet their goal.
They are free to choose an alternative. Ours will be more China-ready than the Korean one while also being cheaper.
Anyway, I think China will lean on the Koreans. Plus the Koreans plan to develop it for the F-35B. It's not a suitable carrier aircraft for a large country. There's the question about supply from America too. Ours will be Rafale and TEDBF. Furthermore, they can't put all their eggs in the Korean basket. They are already investing in the KF-21.
An IAC-3 class upgrade is also possible. Possibly a new aircraft to boot.
It's of national importance for us to sell them carriers, destroyers and other air surveillance systems alongside a NATO-style real-time intelligence sharing agreement. It's about time we cultivate such assets.
Philippines and Vietnam are options too. They may not operate carriers, but other ships and surveillance systems are possible.
What about Vikrant makes it more "China ready"? It is just a medium sized stobar carrier...
As long as the US retains a strong presence in the region the Koreans will do business as they please. The Koreans are also developing their carrier for a future navalized KF-21, might make more sense for the Indonesians to adopt the platform if they're already getting land based KF-21s.
It would be in India's best interest to develop and sell assets. There's a lot of work to compete with the Koreans, Japanese and Chinese in the sector though. Indian shipyards and industry at large really pales in comparison.
I guess it's all a moot point for the foreseeable future. None of these potential nations can afford these capabilities and how they will weather future global economic shocks is yet to be seen.
IAC was expensive.. but the QE class isn't on the table for export. Out of curiosity are projected operating costs of the Vikrant available? If so, how do they compare to the QE class operating costs?
Realistically, if a nation needs a fixed wing aircraft carrier but doesn't have the domestic ship building industry to construct one, who would they go to nowadays? The last case of this was India buying the refurbished Vikramaditya from Russia and before that Thailand buying their royal yacht from Spain.
That's what I'm asking - what geostrategic interests do they have outside SE Asia?
And do what?
The Indonesians' biggest regional headache is likely to be RAN's upcoming SSNs & expanded Surface fleet. And that too only if they want to revive old animosities (it's mostly water under the bridge at this point). But those are not problems that a Carrier can solve.
There's literally nothing they could possibly need a Carrier for. Unless someone in their MoD really wants to waste money.
In any case, rumor mill indicates the Indonesian delegation consists of some important people. And they have a plan of building a 300-ship navy. Most of it being frigates and corvettes, but they only need 10-12 bigger ships for a functional CBG.
So big plans require quite a bit of scouting.
Indonesia's $125B air, naval splurge may mean '50 warships' at sea in next 2 years - Breaking Defense
Amidst incursions by China into Indonesia's Extended Economic Zone, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto is looking for a major investment in military gear.
Their aim is to become a blue water navy by 2045. So a cheap Vikrant will meet their goal.
Big talk but let's see how much of it materializes.
They have like a $20-25 bn defence budget. I'm not hopeful of a 300-ship Navy anytime soon from that (unless they're counting every 20-ton PT Boat as a ship).
The IN only aims for a 175-ship Navy - and we actually plan on taking on both PN & PLAN in IOR. Hard to imagine IDN having a 300-ship Navy...or why they would even want to.
Unless they have dreams of taking over the SCS & the Pacific, while also invading the Andamans at the same time or something.
Its air defenses and aviation component are China-specific.
It's an option, unless China doesn't lean into the Koreans. Nothing's stopping Indonesia from buying Korean than the Chinese.
Even Australia is a potential export customer, not just Indonesia.
It's gonna be a 300 million pop economy. They will have the same strategic interests as the US, Russia, Japan etc.
Half of India's GDP and twice our per capita.
Big talk but let's see how much of it materializes.
They have like a $20-25 bn defence budget. I'm not hopeful of a 300-ship Navy anytime soon from that (unless they're counting every 20-ton PT Boat as a ship).
The IN only aims for a 175-ship Navy - and we actually plan on taking on both PN & PLAN in IOR. Hard to imagine IDN having a 300-ship Navy...or why they would even want to.
Unless they have dreams of taking over the SCS & the Pacific, while also invading the Andamans at the same time or something.
Most of it's small ships, like corvettes. And maybe not even what we call corvettes, so probably <1000T ships. It's a green water navy.
But they hope to transition to a blue water navy over the next 20 years. And for an island state, a CBG is an obvious option.
Money, they will have. They will be as big as Japan by then. It also doesn't help that they will eventually radicalize.
IAC-1 bhai
Why would they go for non existent IAC-2. Do less dreaming.
IAC-2 is expected to be a second Vikrant instead of a new design.
Whatever the case, any Indian design will be cheaper than anyone else's, save for the Russians and Chinese, whether it's a second Vikrant or a new 65k DWT flat-top.
In the near term (say, the next 10-15 years) It would be more likely for Indonesia to acquire LHAs with limited fixed-wing capability. Something similar to Izumo-, or America-class, or LHD Trieste. If that is the case, why they would come to India, a country with no experience in manufacturing such ships? Especially so when in Asia itself, they could go to South Korea and Japan, countries that can build their ships faster, cheaper, and better. Even more so since both Korea and Japan have experience in building amphibious assault ships.
Coming to carriers, you need an escort fleet first. Which Indonesia doesn't have. And if we were to assume that they would get one, again, why would they come to India?
1. If they need an experienced partner, India's built only one carrier so far (and Fincantieri helped with the design). Italy, France, and the UK have more experience.
2. If cost is the determining factor, it's South Korea and Japan any day. Their major surface combatants have been without a fault cheaper than their Indian counterparts for similar levels of capability. Not sure if there's any trend to suggest that this will not be the case 10 years down the line.
3. If they need it as fast as possible, again it's South Korea and Japan any day. For example, Korea takes 2.5-3 years from keel laying to commissioning a frigate/destroyer. India takes 6-8 years. Again, no reason to see that reversing for carriers in 10 years.
Coming to carriers, you need an escort fleet first. Which Indonesia doesn't have. And if we were to assume that they would get one, again, why would they come to India?
1. If they need an experienced partner, India's built only one carrier so far (and Fincantieri helped with the design). Italy, France, and the UK have more experience.
2. If cost is the determining factor, it's South Korea and Japan any day. Their major surface combatants have been without a fault cheaper than their Indian counterparts for similar levels of capability. Not sure if there's any trend to suggest that this will not be the case 10 years down the line.
3. If they need it as fast as possible, again it's South Korea and Japan any day. For example, Korea takes 2.5-3 years from keel laying to commissioning a frigate/destroyer. India takes 6-8 years. Again, no reason to see that reversing for carriers in 10 years.
LHAs need to come with F-35Bs, quite unlikely. Rejigging them for Rafales or equivalent will be a costly affair.
Korea is unlikely to sell anything important to anybody that China considers a warring neighbor. They backed out of P-75I due to Chinese pressure.
Japan won't build a carrier, just an LHA. Plus they are unlikely to export it.
Europe's expensive. And they are unlikely to export anything that will piss off China. Rafale or Tempest, yes. CBG, no.
So India's the only choice for imports.
India's shipbuilding speed will improve over time.
Anyway, I'm only talking about a carrier, not an LHA. No one except Russia or India will give Indonesia a carrier.
Except for the submarines they sold to Indonesia and the frigates and FA-50s they sold to the Philippines. And the KF-21s for Indonesia and the submarine offers to the Philippines.
Any credible citations?
Not sure.
Remains to be seen.
Well, the Russians can't build a carrier for themselves. As for India, lets see.
How on earth are you equating generic stuff with a CBG?
Even the Koreans backed out of their own LHA-based CBG 'cause it's a hot potato. The KF-21N is an excuse they pulled out of the hat in order to delay a carrier decision.
They will obviously not publicly reveal that. They withdrew without giving any public reasons.
They are being threatened through NoKo too.
Let's see if the Koreans get their small carrier first.
It's already seen an improvement with the new frigates compared to the ones before them. The next set will definitely see more improvements.
Both have the capability. India's already got the Vikrant, so I don't know why that's in question. The Russians are currently building 2 40k DWT LHDs. Both laid in 2020.
In any case Korea will only sell generic stuff to countries in SEA. Japan even exporting generic stuff remains to be seen. Europe's also going to limit themselves to generic stuff, they have publicly made known their position with regards to China. They are expensive anyway, so is the UK. Russia's been sanctioned. So that leaves only the US and India.
And they've been trying to get the Admiral Kuznetsov back in operation since 2018, and the Admiral Nakhimov overhauled since the early 2010s.
It's more about the extra capacity. Given CSL will most likely be occupied with LPDs/LHDs, IAC-2 and IAC-3, from where will they get the additional capacity for an Indonesian order? And CSL is the only shipyard with the ability to build carriers.
It's more to do with internal political and budgetary preferences than Chinese pressure. The liberals always prefer more autonomy, more defense spending, and the ROKN, while the conservatives always favor the alliance with the US and building up the army. A simple way to know - conservative admins (Yoon, Park, Lee) have always cut funds from the ROKN and appointed Defense Ministers from the Army.
Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun oversaw ROKN's initial naval buildup. Lee Myung Bak and Park Geun Hye focused on the Army (and to some extent, the ROKAF). Moon Jae In again focused on a larger naval buildup (CV-X, Arsenal Ship, missiles, KSS-3 Batch-2 etc.). Yoon now is reducing the focus on the ROKN.
It is during Moon's admin that the CV-X project gathered team, and during Yoon's admin that it get delayed.
Maybe.
Well, their "small" STOVL carrier was more or less similar to the Vikrant and the De Gaulle in size (full displacement approx. 40,000 ton).
If that's the case (and this is a genuine question), what makes you think they withdrew due to Chinese pressure?
It could have also been due to the long gestation period, extensive ToT requirements, and unattractive commercial terms. And absent of anything from the Korean press, industry, or government, anyone's guess would be just that - a guess.
As for South Korea, if one studies their military buildup, one would find that a lot of what they're doing is aimed at China.
They are quite explicitly creating an A2/AD bubble, with their KF-21 launched supersonic anti-ship missiles, their Brahmos-NG type anti-ship missiles, a new anti-ship ballistic missile, and hypersonic cruise missiles aimed at China (and probably Japan)
Their new ballistic missiles (Hyunmoo-5 and a new SLBM) are rumored to have a range of above 3,000 kms. It's obvious what the target will be for 3,000 km range missiles launched from or near South Korea. Heck, they also have secret programs to develop SSNs (and if I were to speculate, nuclear weapons).
Not sure if a country afraid of irking China would go to such lengths with its military buildup, a lot of it specifically aimed at China, especially when its economy is struggling.
And finally, is the HMS Queen Elizabeth that much more expensive than the INS Vikrant? Aren't both carriers in the $3-4 billion range?
It's difficult to get old stuff working.
MDL is going to set up a carrier friendly dock. L&T has one as well. It doesn't have to be CSL alone. In any case, any potential order will only happen after Vikrant 2 is delivered.
One side is more China friendly than the other. This is always the case pretty much anywhere. One side prefers to deal with the immediate threat while placating China, the other side prefers to challenge China.
Sure. But it's been postponed indefinitely, whereas ours is operational.
Our next carrier has also been cleared.
Defence Procurement Board clears Indian Navy's proposal on second indigenous aircraft carrier
The mega procurement proposal will shortly be placed before the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC), the defence ministry's top body on procurement.
So, by the time the Indonesians decide, we will have 2 operational carriers, while planning or building a third larger one as well. We will be the obvious bet by then. Their blue water aspirations are for 2040+.
It met requirements, that's why negotiations began with MDL. Hell, if Germany is willing, then it's nothing from our side.
If it's not us, then it's them. And if it's them, then it's political.
Not just China, even Japan and Russia. But their defense posture is dominated by NoKo.
Protecting oneself is fine. But arming others with non-generic weapons is gonna be a problem.
The KF-21 is no threat to the Chinese from 2000 km away. But a KF-21N operating from 500 km away is a threat. Plus it's unpredictable and the air component is always upgradeable.
In any case, long range BMs doesn't necessarily mean long range, it can also mean higher apogee to generate different effects.
You need different trajectories in order to defeat BMD. So you need higher ranges to compensate for the drop in range when you change the angle for a higher apogee. And you need longer range systems for more speed as well.
Also, the 3000 km range is without full payload.
In any case, the Koreans are balancing their relations between China, Japan and the US. And one of their key goals is to not arm Chinese enemies with destabilizing weapons. Take their Korean-supplied Nagapasa submarines for example, they are overwhelmingly inadequate to deal with the Chinese, forcing them to look at other more advanced options, like the French Scorpene-Evolved.
So is it any surprise that they dropped Korea for future requirements?
Jakarta aims to spend big on French submarines - Asia Times
Indonesia is planning to spend big on building its submarine fleet with France’s help, potentially nixing its long-standing defense partnership with South
asiatimes.com
With today's exchange rate, it's $10B for 2 vs $2.8B for 1. But our ship has a full-fledged air defense system, while their best ADS is the Phalanx CIWS.