I beg to disagree. The current circumstances and geopolitics is not conducive to an extended stay of the US troops in Afghanistan. That said, they'd definitely maintain a presence there, however minimal, as long as the Northern Alliance (NA ) put up resistance in the event the Taliban swept through Afghanistan. In the interim, however, you'd see US troops replaced by contractors.
Frankly, even during the lifetime of Massoud, the Taliban were in control of Afghanistan, with Massoud confined to his stronghold in the Panjshir valley.
That said, I don't see why would India's credibility take a beating internationally or with the NA. Our relationship with the NA is mutually exclusive of the Taliban. Besides, engaging with the Taliban isn't the equivalent of recognizing their aims or ideology or even their methods. It's merely taking cognisance of ground realities and acting upon them.Besides, let's face it, without sharing a border with Afghanistan & with limited leverage over Iran, how influential are we in Afghanistan? Let's not overstate our influence or strength, However beneficial they are to the GoA and the non Talibani Afghans.
It seems we are well on the way to see a vivisection of Afghanistan into a southern half full of Pashtuns & a northern half with all the rest if the ethnicities comprising Afghanistan along with Pashtun elements opposed to the Taliban. This seems to be the beginning of the endgame. I'm sure Pakistan would be delighted with the outcome. Particularly, such Pakistans as the Pashtuns in KPK.
Before that, we may face mayhem in Kashmir just as Afghanistan will face the same courtesy the Taliban and PA, with greater ferocity and intensity.
There's a credible opposition to take on the Taliban and they comprise of many more than the two you've named. Our views on the Taliban are well known and our capacity to encourage an anti Taliban response or encourage & indulge in nation building out there is that much limited.
They've had nearly 2 decades to shore up their support base with aid pouring in from across the world leave aside India. I don't see how much more India could've done under the circumstances.
If they could not prevent the Taliban from gathering influence, in spite of international efforts which in itself left much to be desired by relying on Pakistan but which certainly was generous in building up institutions and shoring up the anti Taliban factions among those Pashtuns opposed to the Taliban apart from the other ethnicities, how much more hope, time, energy & money would one be expected to expend? The current administration in the US has made up its mind. Its only a matter of time before things begin to unfold or unravel in Afghanistan.
We all know what happened to Abdul Haq. Its time we recognize ground realities, keep our options open & the powder dry. We can't keep indulging in wish fulfillment forever. We've had nearly two decades of peace & security interspersed with terrorist activity in between since 2003. We should've used it to bolster our own capacities which we did. Unfortunately, it wasn't substantial. It's time to face the truth. Our hour of reckoning, while not upon us, isn't too far as well. If we have pretensions of great power, now's the time to stand up and be counted. Unless we're still in the ahinsak mode of our foreign policy and political establishment.
Iran's engagement with the Taliban is as much about responding to exigencies as of recognition of ground realities. Both the Iranians & Russians are probing the US underbelly in Afghanistan. Neither of the two have any illusions of a commonality of interests with the Taliban. India's position can't be different from these two Nations. The joker in the pack is the Chinese.
That's one of the multiple international fault lines where Pakistan is expected to trip. With an economy on oxygen, their room to manoeuvre being limited, watching the hunter becoming the hunter is indeed going to be cathartic and satisfying.
