Israel-Hamas Conflict: Updates & Discussions

[screambowl]

dont think so , whats the benefit for them. Israel has been killing iranian backed proxies & generals

May be they were double agents/moles. Or this gave Iran a reason to give jitters and launch a strike on Israel without being an aggressor. Launching a strike on a consulate is a big thing.

on the contrary russians would be happy as most of the western attention would be diverted towards israel. Israel is more dearer than ukraine, former is family , latter is just useful idiots in geopolitics.

Russians have told Iran to maintain restrains now. The Russians know Iran is the target, not Gaza. And Russia wants to keep the attrition war going on. US has already spent 1 billion dollars within 3 months for air defense in West Asia.

Russia’s Putin urges restraint in call with Iran’s Raisi

Russian president makes comments as Israel weighs its response to Iranian missile and drone attack.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[randomradio]

They do. But even if you take western costs and divide by them by 5 for Russia and 10 for Iran, an MRBM still costs several million dollars. China's DF-21s cost around $10m. Current LRHW cost is around $41m but that will likely fall when production ramps up. That's a very small missile relative to Iran MRBMs though. Still, divide that by 10 you end up with $4.1m. So we've allowed for local costs but the numbers are still BS. I think Iran just has poor accountancy, they probably only include labour costs or something.

It doesn't really even make since to use MRBMs for attack unless they're nuclear-tipped or aimed at very high value assets like carriers or destroyers. End of the day, Iran used 50 BMs and didn't hit a single Israeli F-35I or any fighter, that's a failure.

Iran's missiles are not sophisticated enough to carry such a price tag, and their currency strength has fallen a lot, so any conversion favors the price tag.

 

[randomradio]

Flying with 8222s is SOP for any large package going airborne. Maneuvering alone wouldn't have been enough to deal with AIM-120C-5s. At least not all of them. And we know multiple were launched.

No reason to assume ECM wasn't involved. It's evident from the fact that the only plane to get hit was the one that went far away from the rest of the friendly aircraft.

CAP and scrambled jets do not need podded ECM, they need performance.

Iranian BM tech is unlikely to be as good as our latest.

And remember that CEP only deals with assured accuracy of half of the missiles launched. The other half may or may not hit within that circle.

That time's gone. INS is available to all and sundry. And the range isn't all that great as well.

If Iran has the sophistication to develop SAMs, then making an accurate BM is easy-peasy.

Our relative weakness vis-a-vis China isn't a case of perception, it's a fact. Any Chinese aggression (and I'm not talking about local area commanders going crazy with spiked clubs, I'm talking about directive to invade coming down from Central Military Commission) is done after assessment of what we are capable of doing, not whether we are willing to go to war over small provocations or not.

We had already been demonstrating that we weren't ready to go to war for decades. A real effort to change that equation only began after 2014. In reality only after 2017 and getting serious only after 2020.

Going to war against Pakistan wouldn't have changed any of our real capabilities on the ground at the LAC. In fact it would have weakened our posture further.

We were ready to go to war in 2019. Already mentioned by the IA.

You should know by now that Pakistan doesn't even have the finances to exist. Yet it does.

As of material requirements, China would've taken care of all that in the case of a war with India.

Nope, it can't be done. Simply because there's no land bridge like the one between Poland and Romania to Ukraine. PoK isn't a land bridge. Sea would be blockaded. And the war itself would be limited, so it wouldn't last long enough for allies to step in.

Wars don't work like that. Once you invade, you will receive a counterattack into Rajasthan & Punjab. Pakistan has sizeable numbers of MBTs with hunter-killer capability (which most of our tanks actually lack). So far we just managed to achieve superiority through certain strategic investments like building up a fleet of Rudra armed helos to support the armoured thrusts & deploying BrahMos GLCMs. It's just enough to prevent Pakistan from thinking they can get away with carrying out conventional attacks on India like in '65 or '71. But it's not yet enough to achieve total & complete tactical superiority against Pak.

Granted, unless China steps in to provide resupply (which they likely will as it would be a cheap method to wear us out), Pakistan cannot keep up the war against India for very long, however, any such large scale conflict with Pak in 2019 would have restricted our collective strategic focus firmly on the Western front for decades to come, to the detriment & neglect of the Northern & Eastern fronts - which has been the problem since 1947.

It would have derailed our shift in focus to the Chinese threat.

Taking the long view, it would have hurt our preparedness against PRC. It's simply not a wise move to engage in large scale hostilities with Pak when the Chinese threat is still present. However, if & when the Chinese were to be engaged in a major war in the Pacific with Taiwan/US/Japan...that would indeed create a golden opportunity for us to make moves on PoK without fear of either China or the West getting in the way.

China would be too occupied to dedicate any forces or supplies to prevent us from taking over PoK, while the West would be more amenable to look the other way as they might yet need us to supply their war effort or threaten Chinese SLoCs in the IOR/Malacca.

Pak can't even fight a defensive war, and you expect them to launch an offensive into Rajasthan? Which even the IA wouldn't dare to do?

Taking Pak out would make it easier for us to deal with China. But we are talking about a limited war and negotiations.

Anyway, the IA was ready to invade Pak.

You are again running around in circles. In 2008, the IA wasn't ready to invade Pak. In 2019, the IA was ready to invade Pak. So the decision-making was different both times round.

It was spread over a literal month.

That doesn't matter. It was all a single event. None of these actions were isolated, it was all planned.

How is a handful of PGMs landing in open spaces supposed to be intention of serious damage? Also, the fact that not a single one out of the six PGMs having struck anything of value is too much to be a coincidence or case of targeting failure. More than likely they were intentionally aimed so as to have the least chance at killing or injuring anyone.

Once you account for all the differences in geography, prior understandings to manage escalation & capabilities of each side - the intention of Swift Retort was largely the same as the Iranian strike: To put on a show of force to demonstrate the capability to attack, but causing as little actual damage as possible to the intended targets.

If it wasn't for Abhinandan getting carried away chasing the PAF jets (and better SOPs surrounding IFF usage ensuring we didn't shoot down our own Mi-17), the whole affair would've been extremely forgettable.

Ah, so you are in the Balakot bombings failed club? Didn't know. Or are you referring to "6" bombs thrown at us by the PAF? Lemme tell ya, it was more than a dozen bombs. And most of them missed by a mile, exactly how EW works against PGMs.

When you demonstrate a show of force, you don't do what the PAF did. You do it with the least risk to all your primary assets. The PAF not only put all their assets at risk of getting shot down, but their "show of force" also came at the cost of nullifying most of the electronic capabilities they had. Things went so bad for them that they are now replacing their entire air force prematurely, including purchasing new AEW and EW assets.

 

[screambowl]

That time's gone. INS is available to all and sundry. And the range isn't all that great as well.

If Iran has the sophistication to develop SAMs, then making an accurate BM is easy-peasy.

The low sophisticated missiles if fired in numbers will really increase the air defense cost for NATO. This strategy is working in both Ukraine and Gaza. Russia is fighting through proxy countries like Iran. And they have been able to hurt business world wide. Now airspace is blocked and this has increased the travel cost too.

They might star a major conflict in central Asia ( like Armenia and Azerbaijan ) and almost whole Asia will have to rearrange its flight plans. Massive economic shutdown. This will be very dangerous.

 

[Parthu]

CAP and scrambled jets do not need podded ECM, they need performance.

This isn't 1950. Planes are too expensive to replace quickly. All jets need ECM. Ideally, it should be internal like on Rafale. But where that's not possible because designers didn't think of it from the start (or lack of internal space), you need a podded solution. If you're not carrying the pod yourself, you have to stay close to a jet that has it.

You cannot afford to lose a $50 mil jet to $<1 mil missile.

We were ready to go to war in 2019. Already mentioned by the IA.

Of course - otherwise we wouldn't have carried out Balakot.

We knew we had the capability to go to war against Pakistan. The question is, would that have been a good idea?

There's a reason we didn't.

Nope, it can't be done. Simply because there's no land bridge like the one between Poland and Romania to Ukraine. PoK isn't a land bridge. Sea would be blockaded. And the war itself would be limited, so it wouldn't last long enough for allies to step in.

There's the Karakoram Highway through PoK. And then there's Iran which is friendly to China. They might not have supplied Pak themselves but being a go-between for Chinese supplies was possible.

Pak can't even fight a defensive war, and you expect them to launch an offensive into Rajasthan? Which even the IA wouldn't dare to do?

Taking Pak out would make it easier for us to deal with China. But we are talking about a limited war and negotiations.

Anyway, the IA was ready to invade Pak.

You are again running around in circles. In 2008, the IA wasn't ready to invade Pak. In 2019, the IA was ready to invade Pak. So the decision-making was different both times round.

Initiating a war is one thing, launching a counteroffensive is another. Pak has enough assets by way of MBTs, SPHs & MLRS to launch counteroffensives.

Once we start a war, how long we fight it will be dependent on whether China decides to get involved or not. It won't be up to us.

Even if they don't get involved & it ends in a short while, the fact that we just fought another war with Pak would cloud our strategic focus & restrict our thought process to the Western sector for another 20 years.

We can't afford that. There's a reason we are pursuing peace with Pak for the time being instead of making moves on PoK.

That doesn't matter. It was all a single event. None of these actions were isolated, it was all planned.

Er...

Ah, so you are in the Balakot bombings failed club? Didn't know. Or are you referring to "6" bombs thrown at us by the PAF? Lemme tell ya, it was more than a dozen bombs.

I'm talking about the H-4 SOWs that PAF dropped. Not a single one struck anything of value.

And most of them missed by a mile, exactly how EW works against PGMs.

How is EW supposed to spoof a IR-guided PGM like the H-4?

The IR seeker by virtue of its very nature is designed to simply lock on to whatever is the hottest object within its view. The fact that they went toward an open space instead of the heat signature of a built-up area implies that the seekers were probably pre-deactivated.

If even half of them missed their mark I would have said it was failure, but all of them? That shows a pattern.

When you demonstrate a show of force, you don't do what the PAF did. You do it with the least risk to all your primary assets. The PAF not only put all their assets at risk of getting shot down, but their "show of force" also came at the cost of nullifying most of the electronic capabilities they had. Things went so bad for them that they are now replacing their entire air force prematurely, including purchasing new AEW and EW assets.

IAF attacked Balakot with airpower. They had to respond with commensurate means to ensure that the show of force succeeds in its objective.

It's the same thing we do on the LoC flare-ups.

 

[randomradio]

The low sophisticated missiles if fired in numbers will really increase the air defense cost for NATO. This strategy is working in both Ukraine and Gaza. Russia is fighting through proxy countries like Iran. And they have been able to hurt business world wide. Now airspace is blocked and this has increased the travel cost too.

It's not like Iran's weapons are not expensive to them. What makes them cheap is no different from what happened in Russia. Normally a falling exchange rate is troublesome, but because their main earnings come from a trade surplus, it becomes a huge advantage to the indigenous industry. Russia's exchange rate has dropped by 3 times since 2014, but since 1992, Iran's exchange rate has dropped by nearly 650 times. Since 2000, it's dropped by 24 times. And since 2010, it's dropped by 4 times.

They might star a major conflict in central Asia ( like Armenia and Azerbaijan ) and almost whole Asia will have to rearrange its flight plans. Massive economic shutdown. This will be very dangerous.

More importantly, the Iranians can shut down the Persian Gulf. That's where 25% of the world's oil comes from.

 

[BMD]

Iran's missiles are not sophisticated enough to carry such a price tag, and their currency strength has fallen a lot, so any conversion favors the price tag.

The Kheibar Shekan, Emad-1, Fateh-313, and Fattah-1 are precision guided and were all used during the strike. Iran also makes lots of different missiles in small quantity, which is not production efficient and tends to increase costs. $3-4m is the bare minimum for an Iranian MRBM.

 

[BMD]

EU to impose new sanctions on Iran drone, missile producers

Brussels, Belgium (AFP) April 17, 2024 - European Union leaders agreed Wednesday to impose new sanctions on Iran's drone and missile producers over Tehran's unprecedented weekend attack on Israel, EU chief Charles Michel said.

www.spacewar.com

 

[randomradio]

The Kheibar Shekan, Emad-1, Fateh-313, and Fattah-1 are precision guided and were all used during the strike. Iran also makes lots of different missiles in small quantity, which is not production efficient and tends to increase costs. $3-4m is the bare minimum for an Iranian MRBM.

$3M is 126B rials. Whereas an Iranian SRBM is something like 4B IRR.

So for $3M, the Iranians can build 30 SRBMs.

 

[BMD]

$3M is 126B rials. Whereas an Iranian SRBM is something like 4B IRR.

So for $3M, the Iranians can build 30 SRBMs.

Iranian accountancy is poor. Iskander-M is $3m, so Iranian SRBMs likely cost about half that, but at least $1m.

I don't see Iran in a hurry to launch more given that they're so cheap and achieved absolutely jack shit.

 

[jetray]

Iranian accountancy is poor.

, are they still using roman numerals.

 

[Ginvincible]

Israel-Gaza live updates: Israeli missiles hit a site in Iran​

A U.S. official confirmed to ABC News Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran. The official could not confirm whether Syria and Iraq sites were hit as well.

-ABC News' Martha Raddatz | April 18 9:27 PM

Source: MSN live udpates

 

[Ginvincible]

Israel launches missile strikes into Iran in response to Tehran's attack Sunday​

Updated April 18, 202410:44 PM ET | Tom Bowman

Demonstrators wave a huge Iranian flag in their anti-Israeli gathering in front of an anti-Israeli banner on the wall of a building at the Felestin (Palestine) Sq. in Tehran, Iran, Monday, April 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi) Vahid Salemi/AP ​

The Israeli military has conducted missile strikes against Iran, a senior U.S. military official told NPR on Thursday. There are also reports of explosions in Iraq and Syria.

The strikes appear to be the response Israel vowed to carry out after an Iranian attack on Sunday, when Tehran fired hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel. Most of Iran's volleys were intercepted or caused little damage. The U.S. military official spoke on condition of anonymity Thursday.

Iran's Fars News Agency says explosions were heard in the central city of Isfahan, according to the Reuters News Agency.

The extent of Israel's strikes and the weapons used weren't clear.

The U.S. and other western allies had been urging Israel to forego a military strike to avoid a regional conflict springing out of the Israel-Hamas war.

Those concerns rose when an air strike – which Iran blamed on Israel – killed two Iranian military commanders in the country's consulate in Damascus, Syria, on April 1.

Iran said Sunday's attack on Israel was in response to that.

The region has been on the edge of wider conflict since Hamas attacked Israel Oct. 7, which Israel says killed 1,200 people, and Israel's subsequent invasion of Gaza, which has killed more than 30,000 people according to Gaza health officials.

Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have traded frequent fire over the northern Israel border. Houthi militants, also backed by Iran, have been going after international commercial vessels passing through the Red Sea in recent months. The group's leaders claim they're targeting ships with links to Israel in response to the country's ongoing invasion of Gaza.
========================================================================================================
Source: NPR

Definitely a developing situation. Heard rumors that the sites in Iraq and Syria were radar sites. Could be indicative of more strikes after weakening detection/defenses.

 

[jetray]

Israel launches missile strikes into Iran in response to Tehran's attack Sunday​

Updated April 18, 202410:44 PM ET | Tom Bowman

Demonstrators wave a huge Iranian flag in their anti-Israeli gathering in front of an anti-Israeli banner on the wall of a building at the Felestin (Palestine) Sq. in Tehran, Iran, Monday, April 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi) Vahid Salemi/AP ​

The Israeli military has conducted missile strikes against Iran, a senior U.S. military official told NPR on Thursday. There are also reports of explosions in Iraq and Syria.

The strikes appear to be the response Israel vowed to carry out after an Iranian attack on Sunday, when Tehran fired hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel. Most of Iran's volleys were intercepted or caused little damage. The U.S. military official spoke on condition of anonymity Thursday.

Iran's Fars News Agency says explosions were heard in the central city of Isfahan, according to the Reuters News Agency.

The extent of Israel's strikes and the weapons used weren't clear.

The U.S. and other western allies had been urging Israel to forego a military strike to avoid a regional conflict springing out of the Israel-Hamas war.

Those concerns rose when an air strike – which Iran blamed on Israel – killed two Iranian military commanders in the country's consulate in Damascus, Syria, on April 1.

Iran said Sunday's attack on Israel was in response to that.

The region has been on the edge of wider conflict since Hamas attacked Israel Oct. 7, which Israel says killed 1,200 people, and Israel's subsequent invasion of Gaza, which has killed more than 30,000 people according to Gaza health officials.

Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have traded frequent fire over the northern Israel border. Houthi militants, also backed by Iran, have been going after international commercial vessels passing through the Red Sea in recent months. The group's leaders claim they're targeting ships with links to Israel in response to the country's ongoing invasion of Gaza.
========================================================================================================
Source: NPR

Definitely a developing situation. Heard rumors that the sites in Iraq and Syria were radar sites. Could be indicative of more strikes after weakening detection/defenses.

israel sets oil on fire.

 

[Innominate]

That's it? This is no attack even Iran is laughing which means they aint retaliating likely letting this go.
NOOOOOOOO!

 

[BMD]

, are they still using roman numerals.

They count using goats.

 

[BMD]

 

[BMD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781731045580144837

 

[BMD]

@randomradio, @Innominate, @RASALGHUL, @Amarante, @Parthu, @Picdelamirand-oil

SA-21 Radar destroyed by Israeli attacks on Isfahan.

Exclusive: Detailed satellite images before and after the attack attributed to Israel on the defense systems at the 8th Shekari base in Isfahan.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781837684685549691

View: https://x.com/FardadFarahzad/status/1781837684685549691

 

[BMD]

Iran's supreme leader tacitly acknowledges that Tehran hit little in its attack on Israel

Iran's supreme leader on Sunday dismissed any discussion of whether Tehran's unprecedented drone-and-missile attack on Israel hit anything there, a tacit acknowledgment that despite launching a major assault, few projectiles actually made it through to their targets. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's...

us.yahoo.com