Kalvari Class Submarines - Updates & Discussions

[Ankit Kumar]

I believe MDL has signed the order of unmanned submarine already, not much is disclosed in public domain. So it's not like production line is going to get idle. 2nd there is ongoing Discussion on next SSk series along with 3 additional boats of Scorpion class. Whether that discussion converts into concrete order is yet to be seen.

Aside, I haven't seen enough push from MDL for submarine exports till now despite it being the most experienced conventional submarine builder in India. Let's hope they at least make some attempt earnestly.

Unlike Karachi Shipyard when dealing with France for Agosta 90B , MDL did not obtain the licence to export the submarine from MDL.

Today Karachi Shipyard has leagal rights granted by then DCNS to market the Agosta 90B throught the world.

We instead chose to have a ToT of production of the submarine in India and that too failed very badly.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

The Scorpene is too old by IN's standards. It's like pushing for more MKIs instead of buying new Rafales. Or Arjuns instead of FRCV.

It is a cost effective Submarine to replace Type 209 and Kilo class. And over the time it's batteries, it's AIP , it's weapons suite and it's CMS along with Sonar can be fully localised.

And if we are looking to operate Kilo 877 boats, not the new 636 in 2035, Scorpene is a minimum 1.5 generation ahead.

We need both though. We need P-75I for the technologies it will bring (Rafale). And we need P-76 in order to achieve self-sufficiency (AMCA). Scorpene is like the MKI, it delivers neither.

1 billion USD SSN vs 1 billion USD SSK. That's the choice we need to make.

 

[randomradio]

There are only two ways to buy Scorpene for production at MDL. Either buy more of today's version quickly and then build it within 7-10 years, which will become outdated by then, or start a new procurement process for an upgraded version, which will take longer than P-75I anyway. The MKI suffered through the first process, which is why upgrades were possible only during overhauls. MoD doesn't allow the forces to tag a previous order with a new one unless it's for the exact same model with the exact same specifications, only upgrades are allowed wherever Indian tech is involved.

A third process is an emergency purchase, but that has to be from foreign shipyards, like the case of Rafale and S-400.

Due to these reasons, Scorpene production is not possible. Throwing money at P-75I gives us better returns.

The Russians provide an alternative, where they will sell us 3 used Kilos for a very cheap price. The 3 new Kilos would be much more modern than the Scorpene that was configured before 2005 because it will use quite a bit of the technologies we have developed for the SSBN program. This is exactly like the IAF trying to go for a squadron of old Mig-29s. The Russians will sell us all 3 subs for Rs 1 each, and we have to pay for the upgrade, which is $250+M each. It would add 3 new submarines to the fleet with 10+ years of service life for just $800M or so. All 3 subs would be delivered within 5 years of contract. The decision was delayed due to Covid, but should be taken this year, 'cause it's 2022.

 

[randomradio]

It is a cost effective Submarine to replace Type 209 and Kilo class. And over the time it's batteries, it's AIP , it's weapons suite and it's CMS along with Sonar can be fully localised.

It's too late though. Any upgrade for the Scorpene, followed by negotiations and delivery will be way too far in the future, to the point where we will get these 3 subs only after P-75I and P-75A begin deliveries.

And if we are looking to operate Kilo 877 boats, not the new 636 in 2035, Scorpene is a minimum 1.5 generation ahead.

Today's Kilo, yeah, but not the newly upgraded ones. So we have 1 upgraded Kilo, and it's apparently way more advanced with all the new Indian tech. 2 more are under upgrade, 1 more will join in after the two are delivered. Then a decision for 3 more are pending, which will be taken alongside Russia's offer of 3 used Kilos. So each successive sub is seeing more upgrades. The 2nd and 3rd Kilos will even see the addition of Li-ion with an underwater endurance of 8-9 days, which will push it significantly past the Scorpene's 3 days, until the Scorpene is upgraded too.

In terms of generation, there's not gonna be much difference. I'd say the upgraded Kilo would be ahead in some areas, the Scorpene in some.

1 billion USD SSN vs 1 billion USD SSK. That's the choice we need to make.

Nah, mate. SSNs are way more expensive. We plan on spending upwards of $13B for 6 SSNs vs about $6-7B for 6 P-75I. They are not even in the same class, let alone capability.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Storyteller is back with a bang . I was deeply upset by the realism on display a few days earlier . Course correction was not only overdue but welcome.

New improved kilos whether 877 sub class or 636.3 sub class of EKM Kilo class submarines don't come with AIP or Li ion battery packs from Russia . If they do with the former , it's not an in service version & will be rejected by the IN .

MKIs was a different story altogether as they were inducted with a good amount of Israeli & French avionics given traditional Russian obsolescence in this respect compounded by the fact that post the collapse of the USSR , their entire defence industrial complex was in a dire shape . What didn't happen on time were the upgrades & the fact that aviation electronics & avionics have themselves undergone a sea change in that time with improvements over the preceding generation happening almost every 5 yrs. For perspective our MKIs which we now operate were first delivered from Russia custom built to our specifications with aforementioned avionics around 2003-04 .

Since then whatever upgrades happened was mostly import substitution & on a piece meal superficial basis unlike the deep modernization / upgradation that the F-15 has undergone & which the MKIs are crying out for since probably a decade now .

What storyteller also conveniently conceals is that MoD came up with said stipulations on follow up orders being of the same class & not upgraded versions which in MoD's frame of reference would be equivalent to a new model requiring new procurement procedures to be initiated is that it's a self inflicted wound to curb desi corruption & not something that foreign OEMs have imposed on us . Left unsaid is the fact that we can always issue an one time exception to this contract , if required.

I believe the problem to be deeper. For some reason ( not the obsolescence line being peddled here ) the IN is extremely reluctant to proceed with additional Scorpenes which includes new the upgraded version. Why ? I don't quite know . Part of the reasons can be gleaned from the fact that the Project 75 (I) is itself nearly 15 yrs old with the RFI first having been issued in 2008 . The Project 75 is definitely of an older vintage which took that much longer to fructify impinging greatly on the T/L of the Project 75(I) .

The IN probably planned for the 6 (+3) Scorpenes to patrol the littorals of India serving as the 2nd line of offense but primarily charged with defense of the littorals , with the lead being taken by the more capable Project 75(I). The reason IN seems reluctant to exercise it's options for 3 more could be the usual resource crunch cum skullduggery that MoD indulges in where in if the IN exercises it's option for 3 more Scorpenes , the Project 75(I) will go back into the cold storage with MoD conveniently pointing out that 6+3 & the forthcoming SSNs being more than enough to cater to the IN's requirements for the time being given the budget constraints thus further upsetting the INs plans which as far as submarines go is already interminably delayed.

We've seen something similar happen to the MRFA tender with the IAF being jolted out of it's slumber only in Dec 2021 to draft the AFSQRs for the MRFA after being fast asleep for 6+ yrs or more likely being led by the nose by MoD who may have asked IAF to go ahead with placing the order for the 2nd tranche of Rafales & forget about the MRFA. This is precisely why if & when we see IAF exercise it's option for the 2nd tranche , it will follow the issuance of the RFP for the MRFA or on receipt of the offers for the same . Ditto for the IN wet to the Scorpenes & Project 75 (I) . Of course I could be totally wrong in my reading of the situation. Just my 2 cents .

Explained: India’s submarine strength

The CBI has chargesheeted naval officers and others for allegedly sharing details of India’s submarine modernisation project. How many subs does India have, what is being upgraded, and what’s the timeline?

indianexpress.com

 

[Ankit Kumar]

It's too late though. Any upgrade for the Scorpene, followed by negotiations and delivery will be way too far in the future, to the point where we will get these 3 subs only after P-75I and P-75A begin deliveries.

The plan should be to induct additional boats without any upfront updates. Anyways our AIP is still not ready, what will we update ?

Upgrades will happen only during their first refit.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

Today's Kilo, yeah, but not the newly upgraded ones. So we have 1 upgraded Kilo, and it's apparently way more advanced with all the new Indian tech. 2 more are under upgrade, 1 more will join in after the two are delivered. Then a decision for 3 more are pending, which will be taken alongside Russia's offer of 3 used Kilos. So each successive sub is seeing more upgrades. The 2nd and 3rd Kilos will even see the addition of Li-ion with an underwater endurance of 8-9 days, which will push it significantly past the Scorpene's 3 days, until the Scorpene is upgraded too.

You do not keep using the Rajput class hulls by say refitting it's propulsion with GE ones. Hull has its age.

China has scarpped it's 25 year old EKMs.

Russia has retired 5 boats in recent years which has age similar to our initial boats.

It's simply not good enough. And a disaster in making.
35 years are already over. How much more are we looking to get from them? Be the next Taiwan in operating oldest SSKs?

 

[Ankit Kumar]

$13B

A lot of that is for creating infrastructure, supply chains , development and certification of its propulsion, funds for its preliminary and detailed design, funds for creating a scaled down model for testing, upgrading the Navy's and DRDOs capabilities to do the required R&D.

SSKs will always be handicapped in comparison to SSNs. And when we have funds crunch, we should decide wisely.

 

[randomradio]

The plan should be to induct additional boats without any upfront updates. Anyways our AIP is still not ready, what will we update ?

Are you referring to the Scorpene? The sub was configured in the early 2000s, for service entry in 2012. It was expected to go through a major refit sometime in 2024. So today, it's way behind schedule. And any new purchase, the fastest route, will have to be the same old config, which will be obsolete in 2030s, when it's actually delivered, even if we start negotiations today.

Any new order is a minimum of 7 years. So any configuration you want will be X+7 years. X is the time it will take to approve and create new upgrades + negotiations for a contract. That's GTG approvals + technical negotiations + reconfiguration + financial negotiations + 7 years. P-75I already has a headstart over this, since it's already deep within the tender stage. A choice will likely be made this year, with potential for a contract next year.

So Scorpene is out.

Upgrades will happen only during their first refit.

The delivery of any upgraded Scorpene will happen only in the 2030s, pretty much around the time it will take to begin deliveries of P-75I and A.

As for the Kilos, the upgrades are happening now. They are all naturally more advanced than what's on the Scorpene today. Furthermore, the IN has enough numbers. They want around 18 subs always operational. With 6 Kilos, 4 209s and 6 Scorpenes, they will have 16 subs in 2030. If the IN goes for those 3 additional Kilos, we will have 19. Between 2030-35, we will see a rapid exit of 10 subs and induction of 12 subs. This will be followed by 6 P-76 subs that will replace the 3 Kilos and get us to 24 subs. Post that, we can replace the Scorpenes with 6 more P-76 or SSNs or both.

 

[randomradio]

Ignorants living up to his name as usual. Applying irrelevant stuff to irrelevant stuff.

In the end, stuff I say ends up happening.

 

[_Anonymous_]

One of the shortest stories ever told by epic storyteller. Ran out of content it seems .

Stuff that I say ends up happening it seems . Happy hours have begun & how !

It's 2022 after all. I wonder what other surprises are in store for us before the year ends .

 

[randomradio]

You do not keep using the Rajput class hulls by say refitting it's propulsion with GE ones. Hull has its age.

China has scarpped it's 25 year old EKMs.

Russia has retired 5 boats in recent years which has age similar to our initial boats.

It's simply not good enough. And a disaster in making.
35 years are already over. How much more are we looking to get from them? Be the next Taiwan in operating oldest SSKs?

Many of our Kilos are going through a second refit.

Of the 10 we have, 1 sank and 1 was decommissioned. 1 was upgraded and delivered to Myanmar. Of the 7 left, scheduled for a second refit, 1 has been upgraded, 2 are being upgraded and 1 is going to be upgraded (AFAIK, it has already left to Russia). So the oldest of the upgraded boats is from 2019 + 10 years = 2029. They will be upgraded between now and 2025 or so. This will allow the last of our 4 newly upgraded Kilos to exit service by 2035. These 4 subs were commissioned in 1986, 1987, 1988 and 1989.

Then there are 3 Kilos pending decision for either decommissioning or upgrades, it's unclear what the IN will choose. But these will also have to be upgraded if no new subs are coming. These boats were commissioned in 1990, 1991 and 2000, so should see upgrades between 2025 and 2035, with 10 years added. The last sub can be used until 2045 at this rate.

As for the 3 new Kilos, an order by 2023 will see deliveries from 2026-28, with decommissionings happening from 2036-38. These 3 subs are amongst the ones decommissioned by Russia. 10 more years can be added to the service life of these boats. In fact, more boats can be added as they are decommissioned in Russia.

So we can either keep 3 boats, add 3 more, or lose all 6. If we lose all 6, then we will only have 3+4+6 = 13 subs in 2030, which is unlikely to happen. It's gonna be 16 or 19 boats in 2030.

A new order for Scorpene is useless, it's a decision that should have been taken before 2015 in order to keep the line running smoothly. But a new order will only be delivered after P-75I and A, so there's no point in it anymore. The Kilo upgrades are far more capable, far more up to date and far more realistic.

 

[_Anonymous_]

• The Indonesian Navy was interested in purchasing two Kilo-class submarines. But in 2014 the Chief of Staff of the Indonesian Navy Laksamana Marsetio after a visit to Russia with the team from the Indonesian Navy to inspect the said submarines decided to cancel the plans. He said "The submarines look good on the outside, but the inside is filled with broken equipment, and the two submarines have been in storage for two years." Indonesia chose to buy six Improved Jang Bogo-class submarines later known as Nagapasa-class submarine instead including a transfer of technology, where Indonesia will eventually build four of six of the submarines with South Korea.[36]

Kilo-class submarine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Of course the Indonesian Navy isn't exactly as professional transparent & clean about it's procurement program as is desired plus they seem to have a running relationship in matters defence with South Korea. Having said that , the Russians are hardly the kind to refuse considerations to get Indonesia to buy it's submarines. So take it fwiw.

 

[randomradio]

A lot of that is for creating infrastructure, supply chains , development and certification of its propulsion, funds for its preliminary and detailed design, funds for creating a scaled down model for testing, upgrading the Navy's and DRDOs capabilities to do the required R&D.

That $13B is just an underestimated cost. It will scale up in time, especially with new technologies. Google says it's 1.2LC, that's $16B. Guessing the cost now is irrelevant, but it's definitely twice or more as much as SSKs.

SSKs will always be handicapped in comparison to SSNs. And when we have funds crunch, we should decide wisely.

Depends on the mission. But we need both at this time due to the funds crunch. Hence the need for upgrading the Kilos beyond their design life, and perhaps even buying 3 more Kilos.

3 Kilos + 3 upgrades = $1.5B
6 P-75I = $6-7B
6 P-75A = $13B/$16B/$20B?

 

[_Anonymous_]

Apparently the Kilos are due for double upgrades - one in Russia & the other at MDL wherein the latter , they'd be refitted with Li ion battery packs. It's either that or the one upgraded at MDL underwent the kind of deep upgrades that the kilos in Russia did too with the addition of Li ion battery packs.

I'm guessing the recently upgraded 3 Kilo class subs in Russia would then follow with an upgrade to Li ion battery packs in MDL following which the unupgraded 3 submarines left from the kilo class would then undergo the same procedure. Right now the kilo with the upgraded Li ion battery packs would be subject to user trials.

Once it's been declared to have completed the user trials successfully , would the exercise described above be completed.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1516686549936533504

 

[Ankit Kumar]

Most probably the last ssk induction before 2030 starts. Meanwhile within few months Pakistan will start adding 8 new SSKs.

It took us 2 decades to add 6 Scorpene, and in this they have added 3 Agosta 90B, failed the contract for 3 Type214 but then did the contract for 8 Chinese ssk.

6 vs 11.

Despite our budget.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1516677280978071554

 

[Ashwin]

Most probably the last ssk induction before 2030 starts. Meanwhile within few months Pakistan will start adding 8 new SSKs.

It took us 2 decades to add 6 Scorpene, and in this they have added 3 Agosta 90B, failed the contract for 3 Type214 but then did the contract for 8 Chinese ssk.

6 vs 11.

Despite our budget.

I think internally has a bias against submarine arm. Just a hunch.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

I think internally has a bias against submarine arm. Just a hunch.

Submarines are more or less cheaper way for sea denial. And with the coming of Submarine launched cruise missiles it's an added benefit.

Building 10+ capital warships so that 3-4 are available to blockade Pakistani Coast vs 4-5 SSKs , of which a single loose SSK will be enough for effective blockade.

Submarines are critical. Way more critical than Aircraft Carriers or LHDs.

Hopefully IN, MoD both find a way out of this problem. I can pray nothing more.