Yep. It's a pretty big failure. The only saving grace is we are getting a new Akula this decade. I hope to see a contract for a second Akula too, if possible.
Yep. It's a pretty big failure. The only saving grace is we are getting a new Akula this decade. I hope to see a contract for a second Akula too, if possible.
Bureaucratic failure. They have been waiting for the finalisation of SPM since 2015, and the RFP came out a few months after DAP-2020. The IN also had to wait for some technologies to catch up. Like the indigenous development of the electric motor and Li-ion batteries that will go on future submarines. The IN also prioritised the SSN over P-75I.
We paid pretty steep price for the Akula that has returned. That was a newer hull. New built actually. We should aim to lease back that vessel again.
The IN chose technology over saving time. So the Nerpa is done, it will be pushed into service in the Russian navy after a refit. Otoh, we are very likely looking at leasing the unfinished Irbis, which came after Nerpa. So it's practically a new hull too. Plus a lot of the new submarine's internals will be Indian systems, stuff that's meant to go into the Indian SSN program.
So both the Kilo class upgrades and the leased SSN will have a lot of Indian tech.
Iribis will take lots of work. Atleast 36 months. Guys on Russian defence forum were talking about 2 Akulas of Russian Navy in dry dock. That was just when we had signed the 3 billion deal.
But if indeed it's iribis, we should get it. Buy it at the end of 10 year lease. 35 years easily it will serve.
Might serve as a blueprint when we decide for bigger SSN.
That doesn't explain lack of follow on orders for scorpion class. Which should have placed at least 5 years back. Now it's too late. Same goes for SSN development.
Waiting for tech to mature is not a reason. It's not an option.
The deal was signed in 2019 for delivery in 2026. So there's plenty of time to rebuild the sub.
We can only buy it if we replace their reactor with ours, and that's not on the horizon. But we should be able to renew the lease.
For bigger subs, a better idea is to just "lease" a Yasen class for 25 years. It doesn't require refuelling for 25-30 years, so it's effectively like buying it. The Russians can then operate it for a year or two and decommission it to complete the "lease" process. Overall, it will be cheaper than the Akula lease and naturally comes with better tech.
Come to the other thread. I just found out the the subs we inspected in 2018, are found unfit for modernisation in 2022.
The IN wants bigger subs to deal with China, which pretty much signalled the end for Scorpenes. There's also the question of introducing more modern tech. The Scorpene has to wait until MLUs begin sometime in the 2030s.
The SSN timeline is fine. We didn't really have all the tech we needed back in 2017. We could import some from France and Russia, but the indigenisation goal is apparently 95% for the first 3 and more than that for the following 3. The new SSBN could also see similar or better numbers.
Waiting for fundamental technologies to mature has always been the most important part of development.
The Kalvari class was supposed to undergo a major refit once the last of the subs of this class was commissioned beginning with one sub to be outfitted with indigenous AIP which was to be trialled before being declared successful for others to follow suit.
With Li ion battery packs being trialled now one doesn't quite know if Plan A would be pursued . Alternatively we could follow in South Korea's footsteps.
Besides the Project 75 I subs being expected to deal with Chinese subs is just that - a tall tale . Although the Yuan class has exhibited endurance to traverse past the Malacca / Lombok Straits to dock in SL a few years ago , it's not expected to be part of their war time plans should they decide on the IOR as a battle theatre in any forthcoming war with India. Their SSNs would be expected to do the heavy lifting. Ditto for us.
With Li ion battery packs being trialled now one doesn't quite know if Plan A would be pursued . Alternatively we could follow in South Korea's footsteps.
Besides the Project 75 I subs being expected to deal with Chinese subs is just that - a tall tale . Although the Yuan class has exhibited endurance to traverse past the Malacca / Lombok Straits to dock in SL a few years ago , it's not expected to be part of their war time plans should they decide on the IOR as a battle theatre in any forthcoming war with India. Their SSNs would be expected to do the heavy lifting. Ditto for us.
Why do I get that sinking feeling when I think of GTRE co operating with SAFRAN for the 125 KN turnofan engine to power AMCA?
Perhaps we ought to consider the RR offer too & sign up with them as well, especially since storyteller thinks India has a FA program huge enough to accommodate both requirements.
Money's also not a problem as per storyteller. It's a case of the IAF is flush with funds yet not flush with funds. In any case we are going to be a 5 trillion USD economy in a few years so we can afford it. If only for the love of God, MoD personnel frequented this site more frequently.
When procurement is delayed, obsolescence issues creep up. There's nothing more to it. The IN has moved on to targeting much greater capability. When the IN wants to transition to the Rafale+AMCA phase, people still want to bring them down to the MKI phase.
Ignorants as usual starts bringing up irrelevant stuff and relates it to irrelevant stuff. It's like his mind stops working when he starts thinking about me.
Ignorants as usual starts bringing up irrelevant stuff and relates it to irrelevant stuff. It's like his mind stops working when he starts thinking about me.
You have a commander of the IN state something in the public domain that was largely unknown & only hinted at previously about the Scorpenes yet storyteller insists he's right & everyone else including those who've served in the IN with something to do with the project, wrong .
Not a word about obsolescence from the good commander. Just about escalating costs, failed deadlines, etc which is one of the reasons why IN doesn't want to have anything to do with Naval Group.
That's the beauty of being a storyteller. Total fact free aka post 8 PM analysis. Plus it's 2022.
On the contrary, my mind works extra sharp when I read such fact free declarations & analysis. Which brings me to the nub of the issue - there's one story teller PKS with a strike rate of 7/10 or 8/10 in terms of his analysis & predictions & then there's his cheap counterfeit copy with a glorious strike rate of 0/10 since 2016 & counting.
The best part about this record is just 1 prediction coming true improves the counterfeit's strike rate by 100% . We're awaiting that 100% strike rate since 2016 with bated breath. I'm sure it'd come this year. After all it's 2022. I'm a believer.
Not a word about obsolescence from the good commander. Just about escalating costs, failed deadlines, etc which is one of the reasons why IN doesn't want to have anything to do with Naval Group.
That's the beauty of being a storyteller. Total fact free aka post 8 PM analysis. Plus it's 2022.
On the contrary, my mind works extra sharp when I read such fact free declarations & analysis. Which brings me to the nub of the issue - there's one story teller PKS with a strike rate of 7/10 or 8/10 in terms of his analysis & predictions & then there's his cheap counterfeit copy with a glorious strike rate of 0/10 since 2016 & counting.
The best part about this record is just 1 prediction coming true improves the counterfeit's strike rate by 100% . We're awaiting that 100% strike rate since 2016 with bated breath. I'm sure it'd come this year. After all it's 2022. I'm a believer.
Ignorants becoming more and more Ignorants as time passes.
Escalating costs, failed deadlines etc also results in obsolescence. It's because it's taken too much time that it's become old. What it means is Scorpene is okay for today, but a follow-on order with the same configuration today will be outdated in 2030, when it's delivered. It increasingly looks like common sense has become a luxury.
Escalating costs, failed deadlines etc also results in obsolescence. It's because it's taken too much time that it's become old. What it means is Scorpene is okay for today, but a follow-on order with the same configuration today will be outdated in 2030, when it's delivered. It increasingly looks like common sense has become a luxury.
All this drivel when we're modernizing our existing HDW & Kilo subs & plan to run them all the way up to the mid 2030's , that'd be on an average a full 40 yrs of service life then. Granted we've no choice in the matter & the situation's bad but if obsolescence was a criteria , the IN could well have retired some of them ( which they have & plan to do for some of the subs in the next few yrs) given they did so for the entire minesweeping fleet.
Plus not a single ex service personnel, defence analyst, defense correspondent or any of the amateur defense experts on any platform - MSM or SM has ever raised obsolescence as the reason why we aren't going in for further Scorpenes.
Damn! I never knew 8 pm analysis is so potent. It lasts for nearly 24 hrs. Guess I need to try it at least once, if for nothing else than just the experience especially since it's 2022.
Plus not a single ex service personnel, defence analyst, defense correspondent or any of the amateur defense experts on any platform - MSM or SM has ever raised obsolescence as the reason why we aren't going in for further Scorpenes.
Damn! I never knew 8 pm analysis is so potent. It lasts for nearly 24 hrs. Guess I need to try it at least once, if for nothing else than just the experience especially since it's 2022.
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Obsolescense is not apparent with a cursory look. It requires analysis. And nobody bothers to tell mortals such things, you have to analyse on your own. A minimum application of common sense is enough. A configuration in 2005 will be outdated in 2030. It's also why MKI is facing obsolescence issues and needs upgrades, but unlike the Scorpene, the MKI's a program done right, and unlike the Scorpene, we have more control over the MKI.
Delays are not the reason for Scorpene's end simply because it's an irrelevant issue. Wouldn't be a problem if the Scorpene was built in two batches with different technologies, like the Koreans are doing.
The IN is going for batch-wise induction of future subs. This way induction is faster and the process of obsolescence is much slower. Hence 3+3 SSNs and P-75I production for 6 being split between L&T and MDL to reduce induction time. It's basically the same method used for surface ships.
Delays are not the reason for Scorpene's end simply because it's an irrelevant issue. Wouldn't be a problem if the Scorpene was built in two batches with different technologies, like the Koreans are doing.
The IN is going for batch-wise induction of future subs. This way induction is faster and the process of obsolescence is much slower. Hence 3+3 SSNs and P-75I production for 6 being split between L&T and MDL to reduce induction time. It's basically the same method used for surface ships.
In case we were trying follow on with next scorpene order, won't we ask for the current version / upgrade with Xyz?
Definitely we are NOT satisfied with Scorpene program. If it's Cristal clear. We should have got the Next diesel sub contract to continue with production.
However we are nowhere..
Next sub deal may take long time to re establish flow of production.
What will be our options?
Scorpene ruled out.
Barracuda?, South Korean ? Russian?
Which is a whole new procurement program. Assuming a 12-year half-life, the Scorpene would need MLU in 12 years. So an induction in 2012 would have seen the Scorpene going into MLU in 2024. Now, we are looking at 2029. Assuming a 3-4 year process, we are looking at 2033, possibly around the time the P-75I completes deliveries.
Now, if we are to start a whole new process for an upgraded Scorpene, we are looking at inducting it even beyond 2033. So it wouldn't make sense to chase after something that's no longer needed when better subs are gonna become available through P-75I.
The IN is looking at leasing 3 upgraded Kilos as stopgap.
Yes. But the IN was defeated by MoD bureucracy. It's a battle that cannot be won anyway.
IN wanted to sign the deal this year, but it looks like it will get pushed to the next FY. I believe it's 'cause this FY will see a contract for MRCBF.
Scorpene's not even in the competition. The only ones left are Korea's DSME3000, France's SMX 3.0 and Spain's S-80 Plus. Russia and Germany withdrew. Russia's Amur won't meet requirements, and Germany wanted a year to design a new sub for IN. Sweden complained about ToT demands and didn't bother.
Out of those 3, Korea's is the most mature, but they are not willing to provide a VLS. It may require redesign to add an Indian VLS. Or IN will have to accept it without one.
Spain's option is pretty decent. It's still WIP, but at least it exists. It has questionable AIP tech.
France's option is the least mature, but should come with everything the IN wants 'cause it's been designed for India. Its AIP tech is untested.
Basically, without VLS, all three are viable candidates. And the VLS can be added in during the first 6-year refit. If the IN does this, then the Korean sub will be the frontrunner.
I love the fact that storyteller is back eschewing reality busy spinning convoluted tales to justify whims explaining why we aren't going in for additional Scorpenes.
Let's examine his position.
Obsolescence is often cited as a reason by storyteller without explaining what exactly is obsolete about the Scorpenes or citing ready references or even linking them out here . I'd like to point out for the eleventh time ,that storyteller's the only one in SM or MSM taking such a stand . Source ? Here you go :
So delays is not the reason why the IN is wary where the first of the Scorpenes was supposed to have been commissioned by 2012 - 13 & ended up being commissioned by 2027-18 apart from cost overruns .
Read more at:
Scorpene project will cost Rs 2,000cr more | India News - Times of India
We're also given convoluted explanations about obsolescence by tying the Scorpenes being inducted in 1 go not in 2 separate tranches citing the South Korean example as if SK had a choice in the matter.
Their entire indigenous sub program is courtesy TKMS in the past 3 decades where they adopted the iterative method to indigenise knowledge & production to build enhanced capacities in their subs to meet their own requirements. So what's essentially a function of the learning curve is now being passed off as an attribute.
This is then linked to ( surprise surprise ) Project 75 I & Project 76 Alpha where batch wise induction is cited & breathtakingly in the same paragraph ( more surprise , surprise ) , it's mentioned that we'd be going in for simultaneous induction of all 6 subs courtesy their being distributed for production between MDL & L&T for faster induction in case of the former & in case of the latter the budget , in storyteller's view , as far as SSNs go , holds no such constraints whatsoever for the IN or the MoD but since batch wise induction is preferred , this particular project is apparently designed in 2 phases .
Man , this ought to be taken to Twitter by the Twitter team here , if for nothing else than to test the veracity & ingenuity of the claim . It's worth it's weight in gold . The reactions then would be worth it's weight in platinum & ought to be quoted here .
This is a classic example of how one destroys one's own reputation by indulging in fancy whims passing them off for informed opinions sans any reference or hard facts whatsoever for one has already decided what one wants to believe.
Let's examine his position.
Obsolescence is often cited as a reason by storyteller without explaining what exactly is obsolete about the Scorpenes or citing ready references or even linking them out here . I'd like to point out for the eleventh time ,that storyteller's the only one in SM or MSM taking such a stand . Source ? Here you go :
So delays is not the reason why the IN is wary where the first of the Scorpenes was supposed to have been commissioned by 2012 - 13 & ended up being commissioned by 2027-18 apart from cost overruns .
Read more at:
Scorpene project will cost Rs 2,000cr more | India News - Times of India
We're also given convoluted explanations about obsolescence by tying the Scorpenes being inducted in 1 go not in 2 separate tranches citing the South Korean example as if SK had a choice in the matter.
Their entire indigenous sub program is courtesy TKMS in the past 3 decades where they adopted the iterative method to indigenise knowledge & production to build enhanced capacities in their subs to meet their own requirements. So what's essentially a function of the learning curve is now being passed off as an attribute.
This is then linked to ( surprise surprise ) Project 75 I & Project 76 Alpha where batch wise induction is cited & breathtakingly in the same paragraph ( more surprise , surprise ) , it's mentioned that we'd be going in for simultaneous induction of all 6 subs courtesy their being distributed for production between MDL & L&T for faster induction in case of the former & in case of the latter the budget , in storyteller's view , as far as SSNs go , holds no such constraints whatsoever for the IN or the MoD but since batch wise induction is preferred , this particular project is apparently designed in 2 phases .
Man , this ought to be taken to Twitter by the Twitter team here , if for nothing else than to test the veracity & ingenuity of the claim . It's worth it's weight in gold . The reactions then would be worth it's weight in platinum & ought to be quoted here .
This is a classic example of how one destroys one's own reputation by indulging in fancy whims passing them off for informed opinions sans any reference or hard facts whatsoever for one has already decided what one wants to believe.