"Worthless?" Let me list some potential targets that can be engaged for warfighting:
- Air/Army/Naval bases
- C&C nodes
- SFC facilities
- Naval vessels (>= FFGs)
Contrary to popular belief, Pakistan's doctrine focuses heavily on battlefield and CF targeting. The inventory may never be enough to engage all potential targets, but the technology, SOPs and therefore the options exist.
Most of those can be killed with conventional weapons more effectively. For example, a bunch of MKIs dropping 40+ SAAWs in a decapitation strike on an airbase.
The only area where nukes are useful is against targets deep underground, which is anyway the domain of strategic nukes. But what I'm referring to is basically against troops.
Besides, if TNWs were so worthless, Indian SFC would not have deployed them in Rajasthan.
All nuclear powers have tactical nukes. But it doesn't mean it's going to be especially useful, especially against the targets I'm specifically talking about.
That is interesting, because this redline has been breached on AT LEAST 3 occasions in the past.
Let's assume for the sake of argument that from now on, it is a redline. Then, India has to:
- identify the level of mobilization for itself (1? 10? 100?)
- clearly communicate the policy to Pakistan (via overt/covert channels)
- make sure that Pakistan sticks to its dispersed components policy during peacetime
- upgrade its ISR capabilities to be able to track the at least the majority of Pakistani inventory
- be able to differentiate between mock and real convoys/assembly processes
...and here I thought the NFU and massive retaliation policy was stupid.
There will obviously be certain criterias related to mobilisation.
Our nuclear doctrine specifically states that the threat of use is enough for us to strike first.
I'm not referring to the motivation behind retaliation. Both the capability and will are there, thats the whole point. Rawat sahb is totally welcome to "call the bluff".
Who knows? Maybe he will.
Wish I could hold up an echo-mirror for you.
Exactly why that list you created in your previous post is pointless.
For us, mobilisation is our red line. For you, you can make up all sorts of reasons to create an escalation ladder, but that's pointless.
That's the problem (for India), somehow the ball is more or less always in India's court and stays there until the bell rings.
Isn't it obvious? All terror attacks in India comes from Pakistan, so the onus is on us to escalate. The ball has more or less always been in India's court.
Or you can more specifically say that the conventional war ball is in India's court and the nuclear war ball is in Pakistan's court. Interestingly the IA wants the nuclear war ball to also move to India, with the removal of NFU (perhaps specifcally only for Pakistan).
Thats exactly what Pakistan's deterrence strategy hinges on: to always be able to give India a reason to blink.
Actually, it's all our fault. Nothing to do with Pakistan. Both in '02 and '08, the army was completely unprepared. No artillery, no air defence... Even the infantry was unprepared. The way I see it, Pak's strategy rests on hoping and praying that India doesn't escalate.
The main goal of the armed forces is to achieve overkill against Pakistan before any significant move is made. Whether that has been achieved or not only they know. But you have already seen how aggressive the IA has become over the last few years.
Like this one--
Will take action to reclaim PoK if ordered, says Army Chief General Naravane
Ah, yes. Of course, the Pakistani deep state, SPD and the people developing these systems have no clue of the ineffectiveness of TNWs against dispersed armored columns on a flat terrain.
Pakistani TNWs are not supposed to directly stop any offensive thrusts, that's the job of the PA. Thats all I can say.
It doesn't matter what you plan to use your TNWs for. You can drop it on all the static targets you want, we have more such targets than you have nukes anyway.
It's basically not going to stop an armoured force, is my point. And it looks like we agree on this anyway.
Literally EVERYONE prefers a comfortable life. No Pakistani military officer WANTS such an eventuality to become true. Its the same for the Americans, Russians, Chinese, French, British, Israelis, Indians, North Koreans...everyone. It is an absolutely misplaced belief that the people responsible for maintaining deterrence (irrespective of their country) will never go through with their plans. That is literally what they train for their entire careers, and what upholds deterrence.
From what I have seen (at home and elsewhere), when it comes to these "scenarios", they have a switch somewhere in their minds which just turns off all thoughts of a "comfortable" life. They willingly accept that they will most likely not see another morning ever again. Luckily for Pakistanis, due to the beliefs, it is a whole lot easier.
You are simply talking in general instead of considering the specifics related to Pakistan and the possible treatment of Pakistanis in a post-war world where Pakistan as a single country has likely ceased to exist.
Why did the Iraqis run away instead of fighting the Americans, ask yourself that.
If the PA actually cared about Pakistan itself, then they would have given up their administrative, religious and economic hold over Pakistan a long time ago, allowing Pakistan to become a rich country, and gain the effective means of stopping India conventionally.
Forget nukes, you should be worrying about whether the PA itself will actually fight the IA on the field. Nothing's stopping the top brass from running away to the ME, China and Europe within the small window before the IAF achieves air supremacy.
Not sure how you're making that point, but of course, no stones are better than 200 stones.
I meant Pakistan is never going to use nukes on India, even if Pakistan is nearing annihilation in a conventional war.
And not just that, India would have not invested in BM defence.
Against most TNWs, MRSAM will be effective enough. IA is buying 5 regiments of this SAM.
BMD is for strategic nukes launched by long range missiles that can reach very high altitudes.