Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

There is every possibility that the 15 June violence will prevent any further conflict

Your assessment is the only valid scenario which is preventing any further skirmish, I presume. So either it is no more or all out!

They are on their side of LAC in these areas

Our build up us to prevent them from coming forward

Basically as I understand the terrain
There is no point in trying to occupy every inch

Some choke points will be identified
By either side

In Kargil , PA wanted to cut off Siachen by bombarding NH 1 A

Here the 255 km new DBO road is in their sights

If they try.to.stop our convoys to cut off DBO , then it is war

They will not cut only DBO they will also raid DBO in that case.
 
I was thinking and please dont kill me for that ; that Right now only Finger 4 to Finger 8 is blocked for Indian patrols

That is around 40 Sq KM of land

That is as good as occupied by China

Now if wait for just One year and let 18 RAFALES become fully Operational
And then start a conflict , what is the harm

We can also get 18 more Sukhois in this period , some more Mig 29s , Brahmos
Pinakas and Mirage upgrade will also be completed

What do you guys think

18 Rafales won't do anything, need 36 in order to use them completely. If you have given the army one year, then we need to modernise the infantry during that time.
 
They will not cut only DBO they will also raid DBO in that case.

They will be cut down by MMG fire

The terrain is just too difficult

Raiding and Occupying DBO
Is one thing , Holding territory is just another thing

Same is true.for us

We can move forward till Finger 8

But how will you hold it for long
18 Rafales won't do anything, need 36 in order to use them completely. If you have given the army one year, then we need to modernise the infantry during that time.

All 18 in Kashmir.sector so they can turn both east and west

Along with 200 meteors
 
They will be cut down by MMG fire

How, the PLA is sitting on the peaks around Galwan, have they vacated it? That's why the assault was mounted and many PLA and IA men fell from heights into river. Setting up posts at the same level is required. I think IA has done that and only after setting up posts now the agreement of not to use arms becomes null and void, otherwise Chinese would have stopped IA troops.

The terrain is just too difficult

Raiding and Occupying DBO
Is one thing , Holding territory is just another thing

I was talking about PLAAF air raid on DBO
Same is true.for us

We can move forward till Finger 8

But how will you hold it for long

You have to vacate the PLA from the ridges and heights they are at, height is not much but it won't be like Kargil that PLAAF and other mechanized and artillery brigade won't be involved they will be involved.

Men and machine you lost in 9 months of Kargil war will happen within hours, I repeat not days but hours, same is for PLA.
 
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How, the PLA is sitting on the peaks around Galwan, have they vacated it? That's why the assault was mounted and many PLA and IA men fell from heights into river. Setting up posts at the same level is required. I think IA has done that and only after setting up posts now the agreement of not to use arms becomes null and void, otherwise Chinese would have stopped IA troops.

The whole area is mountainous

Galwan valley has peaks everywhere

We can also climb somewhere if necessary

By the way Colonel Dinny said that occupying peaks is meaningless given the logistics requirements

You can keep an eye on the enemy through Drones , Helicopter and satellites

By the way YOU cannot Teach Mountain
Warfare to Indian Army
 
Yeah but PAF wasn't involved in Kargil, PLAAF will be involved in Ladakh along with PAF.
So how will that stop arty barrages and infantry when our own IAF will also be involved with attack hepters?

Your assessment is the only valid scenario which is preventing any further skirmish, I presume. So either it is no more or all out!
They will not cut only DBO they will also raid DBO in that case.
You are correct here. After what happened on 15-16th night, PLA will not fight in valleys and will choose to attack us in open where their arty can have better effect. The landslide and the charging up the hills by IA has shown them that they are sitting ducks in Galwan in case of a full fight. IMHO, they will withdraw from Galwan valley the moment the game starts. DBO and Depsang plains are ideal for them to launch deep strikes but then we have our armour their. I seriously think that IA will probably encircle them in the south and cutoff that highway first using mountain strike corps elements and than finish them off.

How, the PLA is sitting on the peaks around Galwan, have they vacated it? That's why the assault was mounted and many PLA and IA men fell from heights into river. Setting up posts at the same level is required. I think IA has done that and only after setting up posts now the agreement of not to use arms becomes null and void, otherwise Chinese would have stopped IA troops.
Chinese better not sit on any high ground which is exposed to permafrost. If they do, they know what is in store. Few days back I had posted that the battle will be fought to the east of Karakoram and not in the valleys of Karakoram.
That landslide which sent PLA toppling down on 15th night is an eye opened even for IA. I spoke to a very senior serving guy and told him about permafrost. Can you believe even IA had not taken that into account. They too were wondering as to why all these chinese came toppling down and what caused the landslide. Outside polar regions, only Tibet has this permafrost condition near snowline. The landslide occured close to 14.5k feet altitude.
 
So how will that stop arty barrages and infantry when our own IAF will also be involved with attack hepters?


You are correct here. After what happened on 15-16th night, PLA will not fight in valleys and will choose to attack us in open where their arty can have better effect. The landslide and the charging up the hills by IA has shown them that they are sitting ducks in Galwan in case of a full fight. IMHO, they will withdraw from Galwan valley the moment the game starts. DBO and Depsang plains are ideal for them to launch deep strikes but then we have our armour their. I seriously think that IA will probably encircle them in the south and cutoff that highway first using mountain strike corps elements and than finish them off.


Chinese better not sit on any high ground which is exposed to permafrost. If they do, they know what is in store. Few days back I had posted that the battle will be fought to the east of Karakoram and not in the valleys of Karakoram.
That landslide which sent PLA toppling down on 15th night is an eye opened even for IA. I spoke to a very senior serving guy and told him about permafrost. Can you believe even IA had not taken that into account. They too were wondering as to why all these chinese came toppling down and what caused the landslide. Outside polar regions, only Tibet has this permafrost condition near snowline. The landslide occured close to 14.5k feet altitude.

Sir ,captives in the PLA was Ghatak or was some regular force only .
Heard that 18 of PLA was brutally killed by Ghatak and rest of them was chased caused the capture .
So the landslide or chasing which wasthe reason for their capture?
 
PM Modi said that because he is an eternal optimist....

We are Biding our time

We need not rush into anything

___________________________________________________

This Rouge General is responsible for this standoff


 
All 18 in Kashmir.sector so they can turn both east and west

Along with 200 meteors

That's all they can do right now. But we don't need 18 for it. Even 8 will do. Not to mention, all 18 jets are supposed to be delivered by Feb 2021. But we may not necessarily have enough hours on the pilots to make full use of the jet even in air defence.

If the pilots are up for it, then even the 4 jets we are getting in July will be enough to take care of the Ladakh sector, as long as they survive. A group of 2 can manage a 4-hour sortie and they can alternate, 3 sorties a day. The only problem is 3 of the Batch 1 will be twin seat, and we have only 7 pilots in all. So we have to consider if it's worth the risk, we definitely cannot lose even 1 jet. The next batch will hopefully come in quickly. 8 is a comfortable number. But training of pilots has been delayed.

They will have to fly from Srinagar or Awantipore instead of Leh since the ISE have not been done.

I doubt we are going to get 200 Meteors in a year.
 
We are Biding our time

We need not rush into anything

___________________________________________________

This Rouge General is responsible for this standoff



Lets hope its true, but chances are it will all be forgotten soon. Once the noise and din of domestic politics gathers pace post-covid, PM Modi will be consumed by other less challenging objectives....
 
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We are Biding our time

We need not rush into anything

___________________________________________________

This Rouge General is responsible for this standoff


Veteran Indian diplomats are of the opinion that the CCP has never lost political control of the PLA , even during the most difficult of times. This article itself points out to 1 such dichotomy. OTOH it claims close ties between Xi & Gen Zhao for years given that both are children of prominent revolutionaries from Shaanxi province & both are close to each other. OTOH it goes to show that he acted independently & has landed the CCP & Xi himself into a spot.
 
South of Pangong Tso., A lot of territory.
Can be captured opposite Chushul
Demchok and Chumar

Even Sirijap is.within Artillery range
Yes and China never thought that India will fight back. They believed in what they did for last 58 years. No response from India to salami slicing.
18 Rafales won't do anything, need 36 in order to use them completely. If you have given the army one year, then we need to modernise the infantry during that time.
Maybe Rafale are already flying within Indian airspace. The training time was expedited and MAYBE the aircraft are already in India. But the biggest problem is that to save cost we trained very few pilots and therefore we can't exploit the limited numbers optimally. But Rafale can help us generate a library of enemy radars and counter measures which can be fed to the threat library of other fighters.

How, the PLA is sitting on the peaks around Galwan, have they vacated it? That's why the assault was mounted and many PLA and IA men fell from heights into river. Setting up posts at the same level is required. I think IA has done that and only after setting up posts now the agreement of not to use arms becomes null and void, otherwise Chinese would have stopped IA troops.
Please show me one proof of what you have stated.

Sir ,captives in the PLA was Ghatak or was some regular force only .
Heard that 18 of PLA was brutally killed by Ghatak and rest of them was chased caused the capture .
So the landslide or chasing which wasthe reason for their capture?

IA went up from a differnent route which was south of Shyok-Galwan junction and surrounded PLA. That was done by Ghataks and Arty guys. Other part of revenge seekers were chasing PLA thru Galwan Valley. Many people had posted here that PLA flew drones to hunt IA and the so called death squads killed our guys. The truth is that PLA was searching for its own thru drones. There were no death squads. This term seems to have been taken from what PA is doing in Balouchistan. These Jaichands and Mir Jaffers tried to show IA in bad light and make it look macabre to humiliate Modi. Truth is very different. PLA was shocked and wanted to save its own thru drones. They even dug out bodies from the slush which came tumbling down due to the landslide and even asked IA to help them find their own. I have a reason to claim close to 80 dead for PLA for this reason alone. But I must bow to the YOs of 16th Bihar and the attached arty regiment for launching the most ferocious counter attack and for planning and executing such a game in extremely short time with devastating results. I am so happy that our officers have not lost the edge and they are top class even today. You may call me an idiot for finding happiness in death of our soldiers. But their spirit and valour is what gives me that happiness. I too mourn the martyrs. But should we celebrate our martyrs or mourn them? My sanatani ethics say- celebrate them and their martyrdom.

The reason for capture was being sandwiched. We sandwiched PLA and they did same to us. That is how we had their captives and they had ours.
 
Veteran Indian diplomats are of the opinion that the CCP has never lost political control of the PLA , even during the most difficult of times. This article itself points out to 1 such dichotomy. OTOH it claims close ties between Xi & Gen Zhao for years given that both are children of prominent revolutionaries from Shaanxi province & both are close to each other. OTOH it goes to show that he acted independently & has landed the CCP & Xi himself into a spot.

If anybody has watched death of Stalin, i would guess CCP cannot be much different. Xi has broken a consensus that existed post Deng on power and replacement, so there will be many who will be happy to see Xi dethroned due to a crisis. Its not farfetched to think the whole Wuhan virus was perhaps a Brutus dagger against XI.
 
I feel sorry for the govt. They know that they have spanked chinese quite nicely..... But they cannot disclose it due to the nature of actions...... Poor opposition supported by ajay shukla and gang is doing everything possible to criticise the govt to show them as weak........

Babuas have done what they are supposed to.......
 
If anybody has watched death of Stalin, i would guess CCP cannot be much different. Xi has broken a consensus that existed post Deng on power and replacement, so there will be many who will be happy to see Xi dethroned due to a crisis. Its not farfetched to think the whole Wuhan virus was perhaps a Brutus dagger against XI.
The thing with such totalitarian regimes is you never get to know what's happening when it's happening. It's always a few decades later.
 
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I feel sorry for the govt. They know that they have spanked chinese quite nicely..... But they cannot disclose it due to the nature of actions...... Poor opposition supported by ajay shukla and gang is doing everything possible to criticise the govt to show them as weak........

Babuas have done what they are supposed to.......
Ajay Shukla was surrounded & verbally assaulted at an India Today program hosted by Rahul Kanwal attended by participants like Col Bhat - your friend, Nitin Gokhale, Bharat Karnad, Col Dinny, Gaurav Sawant & Abhijit Mitra Iyer among others - the last of whom dug out articles & tweets of Shukla writing that we lost the entire Galwan valley in 2013 itself. That was the last straw. Shukla stormed out of the virtual discussion.
 
Govt needs to improve its communication on such important matters. In his entire speech, post APM, there was no reference to the Galwan. The PM may have rererred to Galwan in the actual meet, but how are people, like us, who were not in the meet to know that his reference to "no incursion, no occupation", was only with reference to Galwan. Maybe the entire APM was aboit the incident on Galwan and Pangong lake events were not discussed. PM Modi needs to get better inputs while preparing the speech on such sensitive matters.