If US has deployed forces there why it needs Indians then? India should concentrate on Tajikistan than Afghanistan.
Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates
- Thread starter Shashank
- Start date
If US has deployed forces there why it needs Indians then? India should concentrate on Tajikistan than Afghanistan.
That's 'cause you didn't have a strategic transport and/or helicopters to help you out. How do you think we have over 200,000 troops in the mountains? It's not just trucks and mules. A military is a well-oiled machine.
A detachment of 4 Flankers can be supported by just 1 heavy transport. It's even easier for a J-10. The Americans can move a detachment half way across the world in less than 24 hours. But from just a few hundred kilometers away, you can say that the heavy transport can likely handle 8 jets. Add three or four such transports, and you get a full regiment's worth doing detachment duties. And that's just day 1. In the 2nd day, you can follow it up with about enough warfighting materials that can last a week. And so on...
Easier said than done.
And now that they have divulged their plan, its all the more impossible (sarcasm)
In case of a war with china in Aksai Hind, I will use Brahmos fired by Su-30ki to take out S-400 units by sending in loitering drones. If the PLAAF switches on its radars, we will get a lock on the position and fire the Brahmos, alternatively, we can use satellite feed to locate them and target the launchers and radars. QUAD is in play as I had stated few days back. Our satellite assets with QUAD and Israel are far superior to what is available with China. In the initial stage IAF will have to do surge operations by putting in about 4k sorties within two days to take out Ngari airbase, major rail/road bridges and S-400 systems. Air superiority is of two types, complete superiority and in theatre superiority for extended period or limited period. The first two days should be used to create in theatre dominance to render Ngari base useless and prevent operations of AWACs from Hotan. we must at the same time take out all major fuel dumps all across WTC using missiles/fighters. Once we take out Ngari, we will be able to control the airspace in southern Tibet from mid sector till Demchok/Chusul and allow us to use our airborne forces to rapidly encircle and cutoff G219 highway and PLA in southern sector. This will allow us to rapidly fold up the offensive of PLA in middle sector and SSN. The highway will get blocked all the way to Lhasa. Once we are able to take out S400, all other AD systems of PLAAF are easy to be taken out which will allow us complete airdominance of the Aksai Hind area.
One of the major advantage which IAF has is the bowl effect. If you put a radar on your roof, you will not be able to detect any aircraft approaching you till they reach your roof height. But a radar kept at ground level will always be able to pick up an aircraft taking off from the roof. All our bases are at lower altitude than that of PLAAF. This gives a massive advantage to IAF plus most of our aircraft especially M2K have the ability to fly terrain hugging flights on autopilot. They can fly thru the valleys to strike PLAAF bases or do pull up attacks and also do toss bombing attacks. Toss bombing will expose our aircraft minimum to SAMs while we will be able to hit target with precision. SPICE family with Brahmos is the deadliest combination any country can have. Once we are able to take out Ngari, even Hawk trainers can be used in CAS role and our attack helos will be able to operate without any problem with just few SU-30MKI/Jammer aircraft in support role. The main assests will be required only to provide support and AD cover to these CAS assets. Our main fleet can then be used elsewhere. Once we cut off G219, there will be panic in PLA and even Hotan airbase will become unoperational.
One of the biggest problems for airdrop of troops are the SAMs and enemy fighters. Once we take out Ngari, we will be able to dominate all the rear areas of PLA in Aksai Hind and force them to surrender or wipe them out. Even a ten hour window is sufficient to take out all the armour of PLA using sensor fused bombs. This ten hour window can be in package of 3-4 hrs each or in one single time once S-400 has been taken care of. The other major base is Hotan which is situated to the north and can interfere in battle along SSN/DBO. We have the massive advantage of height and the distance from battle area is such that they will not be able to create a large sortie rate given the transient time from the base to battle area and turn around time of aircraft. IAF will have twice the advantage in terms of sortie rate and distance to intercept the incoming strikes. We can engage them much farther away from the battle zone and save our troops from air attacks. I completely rule out use of Attack helos by PLA to support its troops in the area for reasons which you all know. Once we are able to take out Ngari, the aircraft operating from Hotan will have lesser number of sorties to fly and that will diminish with each passing day. Use of airpower is escalatory and also supportive as we have seen in Kargil but use of NAVY is decisive. You all know how Pakistan surrendered when IN moved in strength in Arabian Sea during Kargil. Chinese are in for a massive surprise if IN goes in attack mode.
Next I will tell you about the options which PLAAF/PLA have to neutralise this advantage. They seem to have found a solution which again may not work.
One of the major advantage which IAF has is the bowl effect. If you put a radar on your roof, you will not be able to detect any aircraft approaching you till they reach your roof height. But a radar kept at ground level will always be able to pick up an aircraft taking off from the roof. All our bases are at lower altitude than that of PLAAF. This gives a massive advantage to IAF plus most of our aircraft especially M2K have the ability to fly terrain hugging flights on autopilot. They can fly thru the valleys to strike PLAAF bases or do pull up attacks and also do toss bombing attacks. Toss bombing will expose our aircraft minimum to SAMs while we will be able to hit target with precision. SPICE family with Brahmos is the deadliest combination any country can have. Once we are able to take out Ngari, even Hawk trainers can be used in CAS role and our attack helos will be able to operate without any problem with just few SU-30MKI/Jammer aircraft in support role. The main assests will be required only to provide support and AD cover to these CAS assets. Our main fleet can then be used elsewhere. Once we cut off G219, there will be panic in PLA and even Hotan airbase will become unoperational.
One of the biggest problems for airdrop of troops are the SAMs and enemy fighters. Once we take out Ngari, we will be able to dominate all the rear areas of PLA in Aksai Hind and force them to surrender or wipe them out. Even a ten hour window is sufficient to take out all the armour of PLA using sensor fused bombs. This ten hour window can be in package of 3-4 hrs each or in one single time once S-400 has been taken care of. The other major base is Hotan which is situated to the north and can interfere in battle along SSN/DBO. We have the massive advantage of height and the distance from battle area is such that they will not be able to create a large sortie rate given the transient time from the base to battle area and turn around time of aircraft. IAF will have twice the advantage in terms of sortie rate and distance to intercept the incoming strikes. We can engage them much farther away from the battle zone and save our troops from air attacks. I completely rule out use of Attack helos by PLA to support its troops in the area for reasons which you all know. Once we are able to take out Ngari, the aircraft operating from Hotan will have lesser number of sorties to fly and that will diminish with each passing day. Use of airpower is escalatory and also supportive as we have seen in Kargil but use of NAVY is decisive. You all know how Pakistan surrendered when IN moved in strength in Arabian Sea during Kargil. Chinese are in for a massive surprise if IN goes in attack mode.
Next I will tell you about the options which PLAAF/PLA have to neutralise this advantage. They seem to have found a solution which again may not work.
Mig-29 over Leh in Ladakh on Friday. Photo: AFP/SCMP
Prepare for India border row to escalate, Chinese strategists warn Beijing
Ladakh standoff: Clear view of why China isn't budging emerges
A senior Army source said the disengagement process had kicked off, but it could take time for the Chinese to actually pull back military vehicles and camps massed close to the LAC. Satellite imagery from Sunday (June 28) confirm that there has been no backward movement of Chinese positions...
Mig-29 over Leh in Ladakh on Friday. Photo: AFP/SCMP
Prepare for India border row to escalate, Chinese strategists warn Beijing
Any one else feel China is running a high stakes game of bluff? Its a series of moves to make India blink and suck it up. China does not want a fight?
If you read this thread. I had very clearly stated that the aim of China was to safeguard CPEC, Humiliate India and Modi to emerge as undisputed leader of Asia. They planned it for a longtime including those clubs with nails and MMA fighters. But they got hit very badly in return. Now there is complete disarray in CCP. they do not know what to do next as the things have gone well beyond what they had planned. They thought that they will be able to surprise India but situation is reverse of it. What now?
Reverse of what chinese planned to achieve. Libration of Aksai Hind and possibly Tibet also if QUAD supports us all the way.
If you look at it from Beijing's PoV, you'd see clarity only if they go ahead with their bluff which means taking in all those areas right upto the Karakorum Pass including DBO approaching the Saltoro ridge, the entire Fingers area & Pangong Tso lake. The element of surprise is lost, whether they proceed with their plan of action or not they've only served to awaken a sleeping giant which in time to come will further haunt them. So why not go the whole hog.
After all for them to go back with negligible returns by way of territorial gains & return in say 2-3 years from now will require massive mobilization , even more resistance from the IA not to mention one doesn't know what the global situation will be in 2-3 years from now.
They've chosen an ideal time to catch India napping just that India wasn't caught completely off guard. They'd have to make the best of what they can this time around for the future is too unpredictable. Just my 2 cents.
Very well put. Question is what now. Will they press their advantage now or will they slither back only to come out when its warm again?
Given the stregth of IAF in Tibet, what option does PLAAF has to save its stupid move?
First is to de-escalate from all areas and revert back to F8 in Pangong tso. But they seem least interested in it. They have taken a hit and that has ruined all their plans to become leader of Asia. Now we have even ASEAN speaking against them and QUAD has come into full force. Japs are looking to throw them out of senkaku islands. All of them are banking on Indian response to China and want India to fight this war. If you all may recall my posts from very longtime ago, I had always stated that China must never fight with India if it wants to dominate Asia. We have everything available without asking for it from fighters to ground forces to anyother support as may be needed from QUAD. PLAN has no chance in IOR and Indo Pacific. You can abuse Modi but you can't cheat him. Xi Jinping has done that. Now he is at par with Pakistan's Imran Khan irrespective of whatever he is in China. Modi is not Atal Chaarpayee who needs a lift to even climb to an aircraft. he knows how to turn an opportunity to his favour. War is imminent. Take it or leave it. If I had my way, I will attack china the day QUAD gives me a go ahead.
Let us now come to what options does PLA/PLAAF have?
First is to de-escalate from all areas and revert back to F8 in Pangong tso. But they seem least interested in it. They have taken a hit and that has ruined all their plans to become leader of Asia. Now we have even ASEAN speaking against them and QUAD has come into full force. Japs are looking to throw them out of senkaku islands. All of them are banking on Indian response to China and want India to fight this war. If you all may recall my posts from very longtime ago, I had always stated that China must never fight with India if it wants to dominate Asia. We have everything available without asking for it from fighters to ground forces to anyother support as may be needed from QUAD. PLAN has no chance in IOR and Indo Pacific. You can abuse Modi but you can't cheat him. Xi Jinping has done that. Now he is at par with Pakistan's Imran Khan irrespective of whatever he is in China. Modi is not Atal Chaarpayee who needs a lift to even climb to an aircraft. he knows how to turn an opportunity to his favour. War is imminent. Take it or leave it. If I had my way, I will attack china the day QUAD gives me a go ahead.
Let us now come to what options does PLA/PLAAF have?
- Stretch IAF across the frontiers to ensure that they are not able to concentrate their operation in a limited air sphere by striking bases across LAC. The Indian build up in Aksai Hind is only by Pivot corps till now. Three divisions deplyoyed and one in reserve. The strike element is still in hold off.
- Tie down IAF in multi front war extending from AP to Rajasthan to limit their ability to take on PLAAF using Pak armed forces.
- Use long range bombers to strike and threaten to strike areas of economic importance in India using H6 bombers which will force IAF to deploy large assets to just stop these bombers deep inside China.
- Use PAF to create diversions and concentration of forces in Aksai Hind even at the the cost of Pakistani lives.
- USE ANTI INDIA FORCES BASES TO AUGMENT THE STRIKE POTENTIAL OF PLAAF AND STRIKE INDIA FROM A DIFFERENT DIRECTION. The refuelers and other support aircraft can't take off from Tibet.
- The ability of HVTs will be greatly restricted in supporting own forces either as AWACS or refuelers.
- Use assets of freindly forces to augment its own forces to create a force multiplier effect to prevent Indian forces from dominating G219 and WTC forces.
- Threaten to use or use nukes against India to prevent a loss of territory which they already have in their control.
- Attack Chinese in an all out offensive across LAC, right from Aksai Hind to AP and take out Ngari in the initial stages with blocking of G219 all across tibet.
- Force them to initiate two front war and provide only AD to our forces in Aksai Chin while we direct all our air assets to take out Pkastan including nuke strikes.
- After that divert all our forces to LAC to take out PLA from Tibet by declaring Tibet an Independent Nation and also remove political recognition of PRC and give recognition to Taiwan as real China.
- Every nation will follow us and derecognise China as real China and give recognition to Tibet as an independent nation and we can sign a border agreement with Tibet. We can win over entire Tibet without fighting a war for them and also settle our border disputes with them.
- The QUAD has the potential to do it especially in the aftermath of COVID19.
- That will force China out of UNO and pave the way for India to become the fifth nation replacing China in UNSC. This in turn will bring about disintegration of China.
I think they'd press their advantage. Just that they'd do so when we relax our guard. Part of their game plan is to give minor concessions like withdrawing a few kms away from areas not in their strategic purview by way of de escalation , wait & watch for an opening before swooping down all over again.
Arguably it's a game of diminishing returns as the incidents of 15th July proved. What that incident further demonstrated was that the Indians can't even trust the Chinese a wee bit. The Chinese are on the horns of a dilemma. No two opinions here. Short of a major war, they won't achieve their objectives & even then the outcome is far from certain as India could well turn this into a battle of attrition.
The Chinese have miscalculated. They may just choose to further their miscalculations by brazening it out.
Astute analysis this along with your previous 2 posts on the subject matter except you lay too much emphasis on the Quad ( which will play more of a supportive role than an offensive one) , use of the PLAAF including it's bombers ( where I think China would be better served by offensive deployment of its rocket forces , their cyber warfare forces & their AD in tandem or ahead of PLAAF in an offensive role) & enabling Paxtan to take up a much more offensive role thru the Kargil sector with an aim to detach Siachen & team up with the PLA in the vicinity of Karakorum Pass.
Further I don't think it's our aim to liberate Tibet or even to retake the whole of Aksai Chin except to hold our lines & perhaps throw them beyond the Karakorum range if possible.
Excellent, impressive, mind boggling analysis sir ji. Awaiting your next post. Your analysis should be posted separately in knowledge repository.
They are now in it neck deep. Withdrawing will have far reaching repercussions, especially with a trigger happy Indian Media and online population
Picture the cringe worthy headlines at Aaj Tak and Zee News.
Only way they can get out now is if India gives a concession on the negotiation table. If it comes to the battlefield, it could end badly for China especially if they keep the conflict limited which is my guess. Escalation might bring in other players and then control is all but lost.
India will start with limited goals, like restoring old status. Taking Aksai Chin or disrupting CPEC routes forces China to commit to a proper war. Aksai Chin does not hold any economic value. Maintaining our position there will be worse then Siachen in terms of costs and logistics.
At least Gigil Baltistan offers a chance to connect to Afghanistan. We will be better of investing our strength there. Offer the Chinks some deal to keep their road to Gwadar open by paying India transit fees (Which acknowledges India's right to GB ) and call it a day.
That's historically been the only weak link in India's security matrix - the negotiating table. Let's see if Modi walks the talk or is another version of the many paper tigers we've had.
China is least interested in public relations. Why do you think they'd be interested in what India TV or Aaj Tak has to say? Do we give credence to Pak TV channels? They've their own well oiled media machinery in place to cater to domestic propaganda.
If we secure PoK, I can assure you re starting the CPEC is not even on the agenda. The objective is to draw the equivalent of the Pope's line ( see Treaty of Tordesilas) & declare Chinese interests to the West of the Karakorum as untenable & point out to the east as their traditional playground.
If taking back Akssi hind was not in our agenda, it was on wish list of 1.3 billion people and present government. If we are able strengthen our position and get international support, we can bring it on our agenda. Current scenario has created a situation from where we are able to visualize outcome of this conflict more realistically than past few years. If we think than that we may turn this conflict into our favor, we shall emerge as undisputed leader of Asia which will bring lots of advantages with it. Humiliated china will have to rethink on its expansionist design. Fear from China will go. QUAD bonding will become strong. This will open our way for UN permanent membership. Stay alert, prepare well , build support, humiliate paper dragon at right time. We should take this threat positively into our opportunity.