Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

vstol Jockey said:
In case of a war with china in Aksai Hind, I will use Brahmos fired by Su-30ki to take out S-400 units by sending in loitering drones. If the PLAAF switches on its radars, we will get a lock on the position and fire the Brahmos, alternatively, we can use satellite feed to locate them and target the launchers and radars. QUAD is in play as I had stated few days back. Our satellite assets with QUAD and Israel are far superior to what is available with China. In the initial stage IAF will have to do surge operations by putting in about 4k sorties within two days to take out Ngari airbase, major rail/road bridges and S-400 systems. Air superiority is of two types, complete superiority and in theatre superiority for extended period or limited period. The first two days should be used to create in theatre dominance to render Ngari base useless and prevent operations of AWACs from Hotan. we must at the same time take out all major fuel dumps all across WTC using missiles/fighters. Once we take out Ngari, we will be able to control the airspace in southern Tibet from mid sector till Demchok/Chusul and allow us to use our airborne forces to rapidly encircle and cutoff G219 highway and PLA in southern sector. This will allow us to rapidly fold up the offensive of PLA in middle sector and SSN. The highway will get blocked all the way to Lhasa. Once we are able to take out S400, all other AD systems of PLAAF are easy to be taken out which will allow us complete airdominance of the Aksai Hind area.

One of the major advantage which IAF has is the bowl effect. If you put a radar on your roof, you will not be able to detect any aircraft approaching you till they reach your roof height. But a radar kept at ground level will always be able to pick up an aircraft taking off from the roof. All our bases are at lower altitude than that of PLAAF. This gives a massive advantage to IAF plus most of our aircraft especially M2K have the ability to fly terrain hugging flights on autopilot. They can fly thru the valleys to strike PLAAF bases or do pull up attacks and also do toss bombing attacks. Toss bombing will expose our aircraft minimum to SAMs while we will be able to hit target with precision. SPICE family with Brahmos is the deadliest combination any country can have. Once we are able to take out Ngari, even Hawk trainers can be used in CAS role and our attack helos will be able to operate without any problem with just few SU-30MKI/Jammer aircraft in support role. The main assests will be required only to provide support and AD cover to these CAS assets. Our main fleet can then be used elsewhere. Once we cut off G219, there will be panic in PLA and even Hotan airbase will become unoperational.

One of the biggest problems for airdrop of troops are the SAMs and enemy fighters. Once we take out Ngari, we will be able to dominate all the rear areas of PLA in Aksai Hind and force them to surrender or wipe them out. Even a ten hour window is sufficient to take out all the armour of PLA using sensor fused bombs. This ten hour window can be in package of 3-4 hrs each or in one single time once S-400 has been taken care of. The other major base is Hotan which is situated to the north and can interfere in battle along SSN/DBO. We have the massive advantage of height and the distance from battle area is such that they will not be able to create a large sortie rate given the transient time from the base to battle area and turn around time of aircraft. IAF will have twice the advantage in terms of sortie rate and distance to intercept the incoming strikes. We can engage them much farther away from the battle zone and save our troops from air attacks. I completely rule out use of Attack helos by PLA to support its troops in the area for reasons which you all know. Once we are able to take out Ngari, the aircraft operating from Hotan will have lesser number of sorties to fly and that will diminish with each passing day. Use of airpower is escalatory and also supportive as we have seen in Kargil but use of NAVY is decisive. You all know how Pakistan surrendered when IN moved in strength in Arabian Sea during Kargil. Chinese are in for a massive surprise if IN goes in attack mode.

Next I will tell you about the options which PLAAF/PLA have to neutralise this advantage. They seem to have found a solution which again may not work.
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How can brahmos take out chinese S400? From my best knowledge S400 can only be taken of via a surface to surface mode missile but even that is too difficult.
 
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_Anonymous_ said:
Astute analysis this along with your previous 2 posts on the subject matter except you lay too much emphasis on the Quad ( which will play more of a supportive role than an offensive one) , use of the PLAAF including it's bombers ( where I think China would be better served by offensive deployment of its rocket forces , their cyber warfare forces & their AD in tandem or ahead of PLAAF in an offensive role) & enabling Paxtan to take up a much more offensive role thru the Kargil sector with an aim to detach Siachen & team up with the PLA in the vicinity of Karakorum Pass.

Further I don't think it's our aim to liberate Tibet or even to retake the whole of Aksai Chin except to hold our lines & perhaps throw them beyond the Karakorum range if possible.
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Long long back I had written here that QUAD lacks land borders with China and so they are dependent on India which has largest land borders with China. Very old saying in armed forces is that while Navy claimed sea, airforce the air and arty called itself the queen of battle, An Infantryman stood with a flag of his nation on the lands conquered. Victory is still measured by the foot of a soldier. Let us never forget that. Chinese rocket forces have been given undue potential. Can you explain why have we moved our Prithvi missiles to Leh?

shaxm said:
How can brahmos take out chinese S400? From my best knowledge S400 can only be taken of via a surface to surface mode missile but even that is too difficult.
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Brahmos has many abilities including active seeker and passive seeker.
Jaymax said:
India will start with limited goals, like restoring old status. Taking Aksai Chin or disrupting CPEC routes forces China to commit to a proper war. Aksai Chin does not hold any economic value. Maintaining our position there will be worse then Siachen in terms of costs and logistics.
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Aksai Hind is full of natural resources.
 
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vstol Jockey said:
Brahmos has many abilities including active seeker and passive seeker.
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That only helps in brahmos ability to strike the target. How does it evade being hit from the s400? Firstly the launching point of brahmos cannt be more than 400 km even in a air to surface mode. This is already in the range of s400 detectors. Secondly it will anyways be detected when its close enough to s400 and probably the time is still enough for it to take off brahmos. Barak 8 system has already demonstrated it can take down brahmos. The best bet to take off s400 is a surface to surface mode missile with range > 400 km. Brahmos has much smaller range in that mode.
 
shaxm said:
That only helps in brahmos ability to strike the target. How does it evade being hit from the s400?
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By being fast and out manuvering its interceptors. Plus, being in number.

That being said, an arty barrage and a large number of surface to surface missiles will be less expensive. Perhaps.
 
vstol Jockey said:
In case of a war with china in Aksai Hind, I will use Brahmos fired by Su-30ki to take out S-400 units by sending in loitering drones. If the PLAAF switches on its radars, we will get a lock on the position and fire the Brahmos, alternatively, we can use satellite feed to locate them and target the launchers and radars. QUAD is in play as I had stated few days back. Our satellite assets with QUAD and Israel are far superior to what is available with China. In the initial stage IAF will have to do surge operations by putting in about 4k sorties within two days to take out Ngari airbase, major rail/road bridges and S-400 systems. Air superiority is of two types, complete superiority and in theatre superiority for extended period or limited period. The first two days should be used to create in theatre dominance to render Ngari base useless and prevent operations of AWACs from Hotan. we must at the same time take out all major fuel dumps all across WTC using missiles/fighters. Once we take out Ngari, we will be able to control the airspace in southern Tibet from mid sector till Demchok/Chusul and allow us to use our airborne forces to rapidly encircle and cutoff G219 highway and PLA in southern sector. This will allow us to rapidly fold up the offensive of PLA in middle sector and SSN. The highway will get blocked all the way to Lhasa. Once we are able to take out S400, all other AD systems of PLAAF are easy to be taken out which will allow us complete airdominance of the Aksai Hind area.

One of the major advantage which IAF has is the bowl effect. If you put a radar on your roof, you will not be able to detect any aircraft approaching you till they reach your roof height. But a radar kept at ground level will always be able to pick up an aircraft taking off from the roof. All our bases are at lower altitude than that of PLAAF. This gives a massive advantage to IAF plus most of our aircraft especially M2K have the ability to fly terrain hugging flights on autopilot. They can fly thru the valleys to strike PLAAF bases or do pull up attacks and also do toss bombing attacks. Toss bombing will expose our aircraft minimum to SAMs while we will be able to hit target with precision. SPICE family with Brahmos is the deadliest combination any country can have. Once we are able to take out Ngari, even Hawk trainers can be used in CAS role and our attack helos will be able to operate without any problem with just few SU-30MKI/Jammer aircraft in support role. The main assests will be required only to provide support and AD cover to these CAS assets. Our main fleet can then be used elsewhere. Once we cut off G219, there will be panic in PLA and even Hotan airbase will become unoperational.

One of the biggest problems for airdrop of troops are the SAMs and enemy fighters. Once we take out Ngari, we will be able to dominate all the rear areas of PLA in Aksai Hind and force them to surrender or wipe them out. Even a ten hour window is sufficient to take out all the armour of PLA using sensor fused bombs. This ten hour window can be in package of 3-4 hrs each or in one single time once S-400 has been taken care of. The other major base is Hotan which is situated to the north and can interfere in battle along SSN/DBO. We have the massive advantage of height and the distance from battle area is such that they will not be able to create a large sortie rate given the transient time from the base to battle area and turn around time of aircraft. IAF will have twice the advantage in terms of sortie rate and distance to intercept the incoming strikes. We can engage them much farther away from the battle zone and save our troops from air attacks. I completely rule out use of Attack helos by PLA to support its troops in the area for reasons which you all know. Once we are able to take out Ngari, the aircraft operating from Hotan will have lesser number of sorties to fly and that will diminish with each passing day. Use of airpower is escalatory and also supportive as we have seen in Kargil but use of NAVY is decisive. You all know how Pakistan surrendered when IN moved in strength in Arabian Sea during Kargil. Chinese are in for a massive surprise if IN goes in attack mode.

Next I will tell you about the options which PLAAF/PLA have to neutralise this advantage. They seem to have found a solution which again may not work.
Click to expand...
I like the Indian version - Aksai Hind :)
 
vstol Jockey said:
Given the stregth of IAF in Tibet, what option does PLAAF has to save its stupid move?
First is to de-escalate from all areas and revert back to F8 in Pangong tso. But they seem least interested in it. They have taken a hit and that has ruined all their plans to become leader of Asia. Now we have even ASEAN speaking against them and QUAD has come into full force. Japs are looking to throw them out of senkaku islands. All of them are banking on Indian response to China and want India to fight this war. If you all may recall my posts from very longtime ago, I had always stated that China must never fight with India if it wants to dominate Asia. We have everything available without asking for it from fighters to ground forces to anyother support as may be needed from QUAD. PLAN has no chance in IOR and Indo Pacific. You can abuse Modi but you can't cheat him. Xi Jinping has done that. Now he is at par with Pakistan's Imran Khan irrespective of whatever he is in China. Modi is not Atal Chaarpayee who needs a lift to even climb to an aircraft. he knows how to turn an opportunity to his favour. War is imminent. Take it or leave it. If I had my way, I will attack china the day QUAD gives me a go ahead.
Let us now come to what options does PLA/PLAAF have?
  1. Stretch IAF across the frontiers to ensure that they are not able to concentrate their operation in a limited air sphere by striking bases across LAC. The Indian build up in Aksai Hind is only by Pivot corps till now. Three divisions deplyoyed and one in reserve. The strike element is still in hold off.
  2. Tie down IAF in multi front war extending from AP to Rajasthan to limit their ability to take on PLAAF using Pak armed forces.
  3. Use long range bombers to strike and threaten to strike areas of economic importance in India using H6 bombers which will force IAF to deploy large assets to just stop these bombers deep inside China.
  4. Use PAF to create diversions and concentration of forces in Aksai Hind even at the the cost of Pakistani lives.
  5. USE ANTI INDIA FORCES BASES TO AUGMENT THE STRIKE POTENTIAL OF PLAAF AND STRIKE INDIA FROM A DIFFERENT DIRECTION. The refuelers and other support aircraft can't take off from Tibet.
  6. The ability of HVTs will be greatly restricted in supporting own forces either as AWACS or refuelers.
  7. Use assets of freindly forces to augment its own forces to create a force multiplier effect to prevent Indian forces from dominating G219 and WTC forces.
  8. Threaten to use or use nukes against India to prevent a loss of territory which they already have in their control.
But this is where Chinese miscalculated. They thought that they can humiliate India and Modi in short skirmish or a short war and make him fall in line to Chinese interests like CPEC. Their initial plans have fallen flat. Now they are trying to save Kunzro pass and Sakshagam valley which will cut off CPEC. The route to Kunzro pass goes thru Saltoro ridge which is part of Siachin glacier. If I was commanding Indian forces now and political leadership backed me, I will do the following,
  • Attack Chinese in an all out offensive across LAC, right from Aksai Hind to AP and take out Ngari in the initial stages with blocking of G219 all across tibet.
  • Force them to initiate two front war and provide only AD to our forces in Aksai Chin while we direct all our air assets to take out Pkastan including nuke strikes.
  • After that divert all our forces to LAC to take out PLA from Tibet by declaring Tibet an Independent Nation and also remove political recognition of PRC and give recognition to Taiwan as real China.
  • Every nation will follow us and derecognise China as real China and give recognition to Tibet as an independent nation and we can sign a border agreement with Tibet. We can win over entire Tibet without fighting a war for them and also settle our border disputes with them.
  • The QUAD has the potential to do it especially in the aftermath of COVID19.
  • That will force China out of UNO and pave the way for India to become the fifth nation replacing China in UNSC. This in turn will bring about disintegration of China.
@mods, can this analyise be posted as one post on our FB and Twitter acount?
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Excellent analysis sir. But what about there airforce numbers. They have exactly double the number of 4+ generation aircrafts than us and there bomber are problems with stand-off missiles of more than 1000km . How do you think we will be able to neutralize these bombers. They will fire those missiles from far inland. And also there s400 could be neutralized by harop drones in numbers . We already have 150 + and last year we ordered more of them .
 
_Anonymous_ said:
Astute analysis this along with your previous 2 posts on the subject matter except you lay too much emphasis on the Quad ( which will play more of a supportive role than an offensive one) , use of the PLAAF including it's bombers ( where I think China would be better served by offensive deployment of its rocket forces , their cyber warfare forces & their AD in tandem or ahead of PLAAF in an offensive role) & enabling Paxtan to take up a much more offensive role thru the Kargil sector with an aim to detach Siachen & team up with the PLA in the vicinity of Karakorum Pass.

Further I don't think it's our aim to liberate Tibet or even to retake the whole of Aksai Chin except to hold our lines & perhaps throw them beyond the Karakorum range if possible.
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You now have to understand that Modi has now put Xi and his china on the same pedestal as Dhimran and Paxtan!
 
Saaho said:
By being fast and out manuvering its interceptors. Plus, being in number.

That being said, an arty barrage and a large number of surface to surface missiles will be less expensive. Perhaps.
Click to expand...

Thats fine. But you cannot fire Brahmos from Delhi to take out s400 at border. It first needs to put close enough to s400, via a sukoi or some land means. s400 can take it out the moment its brought in that range. Even if we can launch it by some means avoiding detection, in the final 20 sec or so , s400 will still be able see it, i dont know if that time is enough for it to strike back.
 
shaxm said:
Thats fine. But you cannot fire Brahmos from Delhi to take out s400 at border. It first needs to put close enough to s400, via a sukoi or some land means. s400 can take it out the moment its brought in that range. Even if we can launch it by some means avoiding detection, in the final 20 sec or so , s400 will still be able see it, i dont know if that time is enough for it to strike back.
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Why will you fire Brahmos from Delhi or mid air? You can carry it on a TEL and launch it from ground. Brahmos can work as a ALCM, SLCM and TEL launched missile. S400 is useless against a simple truck. Hell even better if you launch it from mountainous terrain which can mask it for long enough to reduce reaction time. Essentially it is a manuvering and accurate high speed artillery then. Best suited for taking out well defended high value targets. Like Command and Control trucks or Gravestone radar of S400.
 
shaxm said:
But how close you need to get to s400 before firing?
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On the road, on a truck take it near the LAC and fire it on the target. Brahmos has a range in excess of 400 KM. For more fun, fire Brahmos and a lot of dumb rockets on S-400 in a volley. Let it prioritize the threat.
 
Saaho said:
On the road, on a truck take it near the LAC and fire it on the target. Brahmos has a range in excess of 400 KM.
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really? i believe 400 km is the range in air to surface mode. and lower than 300 km in surface to surface mode. so it will detected by s400 even before you fire it.
 
shaxm said:
really? i believe 400 km is the range in air to surface mode. and lower than 300 km in surface to surface mode. so it will detected by s400 even before you fire it.
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zeenews.india.com

BrahMos supersonic cruise missile with 450-km range to soon join Indian armed forces

The 450-km range BrahMos is equipped with an upgraded guidance system and a Russian-designed seeker which give the missile greater accuracy, making it more lethal.
zeenews.india.com zeenews.india.com
.

Brahmos 450 KM (surface launched tested recently).

Its based on Oniks P-800 missile. It can be pushed to 600 KM, but 450 KM is definitely tested in ground to ground mode.

Fun thing is that only change was a software controlled fuel injection. Most likely, a software change made it possible. Russia and India kept its range lower to be compliant of MTCR deliberately. Just changing software increased its range.
 
HariPrasad said:
Since we have spent so.much, we should make it sure that it doesn't go in vain. Push back china to atleast 1962 position. Land captured by china should be vacated.
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Just like India has allowed China to build up & deploy, similarly, China is also allowing India to deploy & stock up.
I sense that the Chinese are not confident about attacking India, otherwise, they would have done so by now.
Now whether we use these or not totally depends on China. I am sure that we won't be firing the first bullet!

So, it remains to be seen, at what point China feels comfortable about starting an armed conflict with India (if at all).
 
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