Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

[Saaho]

I highly doubt that we will start the hostilities. India can never be seen as the 'aggressor' remember?

Ummm... its not just that. Its more like Indian deep-state and political leadership is EXTREMELY reluctant to enter into any conflict. We prefer to operate via diplomacy, negotiation and to a lesser extent via infiltrating in political systems. Like what we are doing in Nepal, what we did in Maldives and perhaps what we did in Sri Lanka.

My suspicion is that for whatever reason, either deep-state in south block does not trust its forces AND/OR it is very very much influenced by business houses. US deep-state, for example, is influenced by its MIC a lot. India does not exactly have a MIC. India has a lots of resellers masquerading as industry. They don't want a war which disrupts their supply chain and business. Remember, our esteemed PM has not exactly called for boycotting enemy goods?

 

[Arvind]

My understanding is the terrain plays a vital part.
India will be using the S-400s well within our border. Therefore, to destroy it an adversary has to cross over while being tracked all the way.
In this case, China has to use it very close to the border in a mountainous region where the radar's capabilities will get hampered by the terrain to a great extent. Honestly, even though in theory it sounds plausible that Chinese S-400s can be taken out easily, need to wait and see how it pans out in practice (if at all).

In theory, on online forums, by armchair generals, every thing looks easy. When it comes to China, we somehow start speaking like Pakistanis that how our sub par, obsolete and low on budget army can take on China along with Pakistan at same time and come out victorious.

- Not to forget after nuking one of them.

Why would China put their best of AD system in a position where it will be a sitting duck as assumed by some forum members? Do they know little than most of us here?

I call for being realist and do not be delusional in our strategic thinking, ignoring enemy's strength will bring us doom.

 

[Defc0n]

Ummm... its not just that. Its more like Indian deep-state and political leadership is EXTREMELY reluctant to enter into any conflict. We prefer to operate via diplomacy, negotiation and to a lesser extent via infiltrating in political systems. Like what we are doing in Nepal, what we did in Maldives and perhaps what we did in Sri Lanka.

My suspicion is that for whatever reason, either deep-state in south block does not trust its forces AND/OR it is very very much influenced by business houses.

Given the current situation, I don't think we can fault GoI for not wanting to enter into an armed conflict.
Having said that, it is exactly the situation that the Chinese wanted to capitalise on.
They wanted to put India in a situation where a war is forced on us and we cannot fight.
That didn't happen & China understood the miscalculation that its political leadership had done.
So, the window of opportunity (Covid'19 crisis) is not going to last forever & will close pretty fast.
So, if China cannot attack us when we are in such deep problems of pandemic, I don't think they can attack us in future.
This is where our armed forces have done a brilliant job where they are not confident of attacking us while we sit pretty.

 

[screambowl]

This is cool, if true -

https://twitter.com/x/status/1277543950220435456

World milking India
This was suppose to happen. That's why there is an escalation
West is West! Brainy powerful and cool!

 

[Saaho]

Govt should purchase ramjet artillery shells and long range rocket projectors. Additional T90s, Arjun, K9, and all types of indigenous artillery pieces as much as we can get.
For Airforce there should be emergency purchase of armed drones ASAP. We should try to lease some force multipliers too from the stock of friendly countries.
For navy nothing could be delivered in such a short span but we should try to get Tsircons if they are operational.

The purchase is on. I don't know when the deliveries will arrive. India *censored*ed up its procurement process long ago. Political interference, over scrutinization, beaurocratic burden are all working against us.

 

[Arvind]

World milking India
This was suppose to happen. That's why there is an escalation
West is West! Brainy powerful and cool!

If true, I wont call it milking but helping at the right time.

 

[Saaho]

Given the current situation, I don't think we can fault GoI for not wanting to enter into an armed conflict.

NOT responding lethally against a mortal enemy is a lethal mistake in itself.

Having said that, it is exactly the situation that the Chinese wanted to capitalise on.
They wanted to put India in a situation where a war is forced on us and we cannot fight.

When the enemy wants to play chess or go with you, you don't sit and play. You just throw the board out of the window. Being unpredictable in conflict helps a lot. If they love to encircle you on LAC, hit them in their soft underbelly. Hit their connecting infra-structure in Tibet. Their dams etc. China has way more vulnerabilities than they will admit. You don't wait for them to escalate, you escalate. You don't let your enemy set the tempo of war.

 

[Defc0n]

In theory, on online forums, by armchair generals, every thing looks easy. When it comes to China, we somehow start speaking like Pakistanis that how our sub par, obsolete and low on budget army can take on China along with Pakistan at same time and come out victorious.

- Not to forget after nuking one of them.

Why would China put their best of AD system in a position where it will be a sitting duck as assumed by some forum members? Do they know little than most of us here?

I call for being realist and do not be delusional in our strategic thinking, ignoring enemy's strength will bring us doom.

I for one, am not underestimating the adversary here.
Let me ask you this -

Why is it that despite having edge in every department (in theory) they are yet to fire a single bullet on us till date ?
They have been building up for quite some time now, and India is fighting Covid with its economy going down hill.
What is preventing China from overwhelming us with a fast and forced offensive?
If they are refraining on doing that, there has to be a reason behind it, right?
According to you, what is that reason?

 

[_Anonymous_]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1277543512439914501

 

[Defc0n]

NOT responding lethally against a mortal enemy is a lethal mistake in itself.

It is a bad decision & if you recall, I asked why India is not conducting a pre-emptive strike.
As to why it is not, I can only imagine because of the economic & pandemic situation.
If there are any other reasons, I cannot imagine.

When the enemy wants to play chess or go with you, you don't sit and play. You just throw the board out of the window. Being unpredictable in conflict helps a lot. If they love to encircle you on LAC, hit them in their soft underbelly. Hit their connecting infra-structure in Tibet. Their dams etc. China has way more vulnerabilities than they will admit. You don't wait for them to escalate, you escalate. You don't let your enemy set the tempo of war.

You can be as unpredictable as you want when you don't have to manage a pandemic of the scale we have never seen before.
During Dokalam, we could have, again why we didn't - may be political will.
But now, as I wrote above, I feel the reason is the situation in the country.

 

[Saaho]

Why is it that despite having edge in every department (in theory) they are yet to fire a single bullet on us till date ?

Because they believe that pressure will be enough to make civilian leadership of India capitulate. Because we went and said "all operations are over in balakot" at the first chance. Because we claimed military victory in 2019 when there was none.

It sends a message. It tell that those who run the country are really really really reluctant to fight even if a weak enemy challenge them.

It tells them that Indian leadership and deep-state fear losing the war way more than war itself. It tells them that any adversary will be able to set the tempo of war with India as India will only react that too lethargically.

And we confirmed that. The message from our PM and all the CBM treaties we signed and we honor confirmed their speculation.

 

[Aurora]

The purchase is on. I don't know when the deliveries will arrive. India *censored*ed up its procurement process long ago. Political interference, over scrutinization, beaurocratic burden are all working against us.

Does purchase includes all the weapon systems mentioned by me sir??

 

[Saaho]

You can be as unpredictable as you want when you don't have to manage a pandemic of the scale we have never seen before.

Being unpredictable includes that your enemy cann't guess "will they respond disproportionately during a crisis?"

Does purchase includes all the weapon systems mentioned by me sir??

I don't know. Purchases are on and most likely our forces are buying stuff they think they need to enforces the policy of its deep-state and political leadership. Not what I and you say needs to be done but what south block and Modi says need to be done. They are their boss, not us.

 

[Aurora]

I am assuming you believe India have better interceptors and Radars than China to safeguard their own S-400 once acquired.

It has more to do with geography. Our interceptors could respond to threats earlier than theirs. Same goes for our radars.

They are their boss, not us.

That goes without saying. But it is a fact that LRGMs and Long range rocket projectors will give us significant edge over them.

 

[Defc0n]

Because they believe that pressure will be enough to make civilian leadership of India capitulate. Because we went and said "all operations are over in balakot" at the first chance. Because we claimed military victory in 2019 when there was none.

It sends a message. It tell that those who run the country are really really really reluctant to fight even if a weak enemy challenge them.

It tells them that Indian leadership and deep-state fear losing the war way more than war itself. It tells them that any adversary will be able to set the tempo of war with India as India will only react that too lethargically.

And we confirmed that. The message from our PM and all the CBM treaties we signed and we honor.

The fact that we didn't hit back at Pak after Op SwiftRetort is something I agree to. That in my opinion was a blunder.

"It tells them that Indian leadership and deep-state fear losing the war way more than war itself." - If that be the case, is it not more prudent to defeat the country and make it face shame. Wont that do China wonders in terms of image?

There is a difference between what happened on 28th and now - USA.
USA intervened (joint meeting with pakistan) and prevented us from carrying out strike on Pak by making Abhinandan a bargaining chip which Pak utilised to the fullest.
However, now, USA is rooting for India to take on China and it won't intervene and try to make India stop.
I still believe that GoI should stop allowing US to dictate our actions in response to issues which are NONE OF US's business.

Being unpredictable includes that your enemy cann't guess "will they respond disproportionately during a crisis?"

I don't know. Purchases are on and most likely our forces are buying stuff they think they need to enforces the policy of its deep-state and political leadership. Not what I and you say needs to be done but what south block and Modi says need to be done. They are their boss, not us.

Point taken & I agree.

 

[Saaho]

If that be the case, is it not more prudent to defeat the country and make it face shame. Wont that do China wonders in terms of image?

What is cheaper? Pressuring an enemy into surrender or fighting an enemy into surrender? Why to fire a bullet when words and few videos can do the trick?
China is picking up conflict everywhere. They need to do it as cheaply as possible.

 

[Aurora]

Are Bhutan and Nepal at sufficient heights to prevent any Chinese missile strike on us through their airspace??
If not then we should place our ADS on the borders of these countries too.
As chances of Chinese respecting the sovereignty of any country during war is zero.
I also hope that government is increasing the force level in Bhutan. Chinese may invade that country too.

 

[Defc0n]

What is cheaper? Pressuring an enemy into surrender or fighting an enemy into surrender? Why to fire a bullet when words and few videos can do the trick?
China is picking up conflict everywhere. They need to do it as cheaply as possible.

Pressuring is cheaper, if it works. The videos courtesy GlobalTimes are downright funny & lame.
In this case, it doesn't seem to be working. We have said that we won't be allowing any land to be gobbled up by the Chinese.

 

[Saaho]

There is a difference between what happened on 28th and now - USA.
USA intervened (joint meeting with pakistan) and prevented us from carrying out strike on Pak by making Abhinandan a bargaining chip which Pak utilised to the fullest.

USA didn't set RoE on 28th. We did.
USA didn't set our policy of dancing around and not buying missiles to effectively defend. We did.
USA didn't force us to maintain a fleet of Mig 21s in God damn 2019. We did.
USA didn't force us to not to buy AWACS. We did.
USA didn't force us to reduce our budgetary allocation to defence. We did.

Pressuring is cheaper, if it works. The videos courtesy GlobalTimes are downright funny & lame.

It appears funny to us. I don't know how they appear to our deep-state and dabba-wallas.

 

[Defc0n]

USA didn't set RoE on 28th. We did.
USA didn't set our policy of dancing around and not buying missiles to effectively defend. We did.
USA didn't force us to maintain a fleet of Mig 21s in God damn 2019. We did.
USA didn't force us to not to buy AWACS. We did.
USA didn't force us to reduce our budgetary allocation to defence. We did.

Those didn't stop us from retaliating post Op. SwiftRetort.
Abhinandan's Capture followed up by US's intervention did.
What we had, despite being guilty of all of the above, we had enough to beat the shi* out of Pakistan.
Still we didn't do it.