Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

Defc0n said:
Disengagement -> deescalation -> de-induction -> ( ? )
Until and unless de-induction happens, nothing else really matters.
Also, I feel India is trying to hold them in until it starts to snow. They have to leave then. Question is, if IA will do a similar op on them when the snow starts to melt.
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They aren't de-inducting. If GoI thinks that, I'm sort of tempted to see where did these dinosaur brained, mahatma ki doodh peeta his decision makers come from? It's like the classic definition of stupidity. They keep expecting different results from same actions.

I'm worried before winter, they'll take advantage of hampered supply lines due to monsoon in India and attack us.
 
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Sanglamorre said:
They aren't de-inducting. If GoI thinks that, I'm sort of tempted to see where did these dinosaur brained, mahatma ki doodh peeta his decision makers come from? It's like the classic definition of stupidity. They keep expecting different results from same actions.

I'm worried before winter, they'll take advantage of hampered supply lines due to monsoon in India and attack us.
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I suppose IA also sees that as a possibility. If attacked, it has to fight as the politicians are not going intervene then.
At the end of the day, it is superbly difficult for people like us to comprehend the intricacies of the nuts and bolts of a military OP.
So let's hope IA knows what it is doing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1277574265894694912

There was little to no progress with the last two talks, but we go for the third anyway.
There has to be a reason. Let's just trust the army for now. We will get a lot of time to scrutinise the actions of all involved at a later time.
 
screambowl said:
World milking India :p
This was suppose to happen. That's why there is an escalation ;)
West is West! Brainy powerful and cool!
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It's not their fault if we failed at modernising. I proposed the induction of silver bullet weapons in small numbers long ago, and still do, to counter the exact same thing that Pakistan did last year and China is doing now. Which is why I also say we need to buy 40 Su-57s for induction post 2025.

All we had to do was induct the Derby ER for the MKI when it was ready, and we wouldn't be in such a hurry to induct Rafales with Meteors. It was only after Balakot that the IAF woke up to the reality of having a bigger stick. We didn't even need thousands of missiles, just a few hundred, like the 400 R-77s we bought last year could have easily been 200 Derby ERs and the effective capability would have been much, much higher.

The IAF and IN need to work on their priorities better. Can't blame the IA since, other than special forces, which are well-stocked, their requirements call for full scale inductions. The IAF screwed up modernising the MKI due to their single-minded focus on chasing after their wet dream in the Rafale and got stuck with neither.
 
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Defc0n said:
I for one, am not underestimating the adversary here.
Let me ask you this -

Why is it that despite having edge in every department (in theory) they are yet to fire a single bullet on us till date ?
They have been building up for quite some time now, and India is fighting Covid with its economy going down hill.
What is preventing China from overwhelming us with a fast and forced offensive?
If they are refraining on doing that, there has to be a reason behind it, right?
According to you, what is that reason?
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Simply because there is no reason for them to overwhelm us while there objective can be met without firing a bullet. They are ensuring that our political class have the room to maneuver and is not forced by masses to get into armed conflict.

They are operating below a threshold, which is sane when you deal with 1.3 billion strong nation with nukes.
 
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Arvind said:
Simply because there is no reason for them to overwhelm us while there objective can be met without firing a bullet. They are ensuring that our political class have the room to maneuver and is not forced by masses to get into armed conflict.

They are operating below a threshold, which is sane when you deal with 1.3 billion strong nation with nukes.
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What is their objective ?
Why have a huge build up if you want to operate below the threshold?
 
Defc0n said:
What is their objective ?
Why have a huge build up if you want to operate below the threshold?
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There objective is to grab "disputed buffer zone" and they are ensuring India do not retaliate by keeping a significant forces while they do so. Giving our politicians "room to maneuver" that China has not invaded Indian land, technically they have not as they are just grabbing disputed one.

Threshold is not a defined and openly disclosed line, but a guesswork. You need to maintain sufficient strength to cater to time when that threshold is breached, by design or by mistake.
 
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Arvind said:
There objective is to grab "disputed buffer zone" and they are ensuring India do not retaliate by keeping a significant forces while they do so. Giving our politicians "room to maneuver" that China has not invaded Indian land, technically they have not as they are just grabbing disputed one.

Threshold is not a defined and openly disclosed line, but a guesswork. You need to maintain sufficient strength to cater to time when that threshold is breached, by design or by mistake.
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We should have done the same to them in different sector, may be we already did and news not yet out!
 
Arvind said:
There objective is to grab "disputed buffer zone" and they are ensuring India do not retaliate by keeping a significant forces while they do so. Giving our politicians "room to maneuver" that China has not invaded Indian land, technically they have not as they are just grabbing disputed one.

Threshold is not a defined and openly disclosed line, but a guesswork. You need to maintain sufficient strength to cater to time when that threshold is breached, by design or by mistake.
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Grabbing disputed land is "unilaterally changing status-quo" . Galwan valley fight was the fallout of that.
If India is ok with the part where they are sitting now, I don't think we would have been having discussions with them.
So actually what are we discussing? After last two rounds, outcome was a dead zero.
Tomorrow we have one more will most likely be a zero again.
So, after a time, if China doesn't backtrack, IA won't have any option but to drive them away by force.
I don't see how this playing below threshold is helping China.

On the other hand if you want to say that we will accept Chinese presence in the buffer zone (disputed) for the rest of our life, then, yes, they got what they wanted. However, the likeliness of that happening is very low for two reasons - Indian public will ramp up the pressure on GoI and also if we allow this, they will grab further lands. So that will be humiliation for both IA and GoI. I doubt thats where this is headed.
 
Defc0n said:
Grabbing disputed land is "unilaterally changing status-quo" . Galwan valley fight was the fallout of that.
If India is ok with the part where they are sitting now, I don't think we would have been having discussions with them.
So actually what are we discussing? After last two rounds, outcome was a dead zero.
Tomorrow we have one more will most likely be a zero again.
So, after a time, if China doesn't backtrack, IA won't have any option but to drive them away by force.
I don't see how this playing below threshold is helping China.

On the other hand if you want to say that we will accept Chinese presence in the buffer zone (disputed) for the rest of our life, then, yes, they got what they wanted. However, the likeliness of that happening is very low for two reasons - Indian public will ramp up the pressure on GoI and also if we allow this, they will grab further lands. So that will be humiliation for both IA and GoI. I doubt thats where this is headed.
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What we are discussing? - We are asking them to leave disputed place as no man's zone with no permanent build up and go back to pre May positions. They are unwilling.

Shall we accept their presence in disputed area? - No, we should not

Will we accept their presence in disputed area? - We have done so in Congress regime, yet to see in BJP's.

Humiliation will definitely happen, if the right information is allowed to come in for public. Pride will be restored if by diplomacy or by strength we can get back to pre May status quo.
 
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Saaho said:
Because they believe that pressure will be enough to make civilian leadership of India capitulate. Because we went and said "all operations are over in balakot" at the first chance. Because we claimed military victory in 2019 when there was none.

It sends a message. It tell that those who run the country are really really really reluctant to fight even if a weak enemy challenge them.

It tells them that Indian leadership and deep-state fear losing the war way more than war itself. It tells them that any adversary will be able to set the tempo of war with India as India will only react that too lethargically.

And we confirmed that. The message from our PM and all the CBM treaties we signed and we honor confirmed their speculation.
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why did 1967 Nathula or kargil happened when there is a leadership which fear losing the war way more than war itself ??
 
Arvind said:
What we are discussing? - We are asking them to leave disputed place as no man's zone with no permanent build up and go back to pre May positions. They are unwilling.

Shall we accept their presence in disputed area? - No, we should not

Will we accept their presence in disputed area? - We have done so in Congress regime, yet to see in BJP's.

Humiliation will definitely happen, if the right information is allowed to come in for public. Pride will be restored if by diplomacy or by strength we can get back to pre May status quo.
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Both sides are going into discussions knowing there is slim chance of a breakthrough. Why? Are they buying time to build up forces further?
Are these a sham and covert talks are happening elsewhere?

This business of talks hardly serves any purpose now.
 
Arvind said:
What we are discussing? - We are asking them to leave disputed place as no man's zone with no permanent build up and go back to pre May positions. They are unwilling.

Shall we accept their presence in disputed area? - No, we should not

Will we accept their presence in disputed area? - We have done so in Congress regime, yet to see in BJP's.

Humiliation will definitely happen, if the right information is allowed to come in for public. Pride will be restored if by diplomacy or by strength we can get back to pre May status quo.
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It depends a lot on what China's objectives are.

Whether they are here to negotiate something, send a message to us and/or someone else, or are simply staking claim over "their" territories in the LAC.
 
Defc0n said:
Just like India has allowed China to build up & deploy, similarly, China is also allowing India to deploy & stock up.
I sense that the Chinese are not confident about attacking India, otherwise, they would have done so by now.
Now whether we use these or not totally depends on China. I am sure that we won't be firing the first bullet!

So, it remains to be seen, at what point China feels comfortable about starting an armed conflict with India (if at all).
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China is a paper dragon and it knows its capabilities. After 15th of June fight, China is very scared. They will avoid conflict at any cost. Meanwhile, lots of game changing stuff is flowing in for India. Paper dragon's back side will put on fire in case of conflict. Our diplomats and politicians needs a lots of credit for strengthening Indian position with lots of diplomatic and military support.
 
@Arvind @Defc0n
Whole Aksai Hind( thanks to @vstol Jockey for the name) is disputed. Galwan, or No Galwan. It's only a small area in disputed Aksai Hind. There is NO buffer, I repeat there is NO buffer.
Defc0n said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1277583952006352896

www.ndtv.com

China Intrudes 423 Metres Into Indian Territory In Galwan: Satellite Pics

China's forces in the Galwan Valley have intruded 423 metres into Indian territory, an incursion which seems to be well ahead of Beijing's own 1960 Claim Line in the region.
www.ndtv.com www.ndtv.com
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LAC itself runs from Aksai Hind which is Indian territory. Even across LAC it is Indian territory.

noksss said:
So Xi Jinping is working for Donald trump to help western business ?? :unsure: :unsure:
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It could be a high level drama planned by US Russia and China. Though sounds like conspiracy, but don't think like an Indian think like an outsider. What would first thing come into your mind regarding global situation?
 
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Arvind said:
We should cancel S-400 acquisition if its so easy to neutralize the system.
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There was a news that India may integrate swordfish or its derivatives with S400 batteries. I don't know how much truth is there in this news. @Vostol Jockey sir may throw some light on it.
 
Jaymax said:
Both sides are going into discussions knowing there is slim chance of a breakthrough. Why? Are they buying time to build up forces further?
Are these a sham and covert talks are happening elsewhere?

This business of talks hardly serves any purpose now.
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Do you think China has anything to discuss unless we have been an aggressor as well and occupied some disputed land in parallel.
 
randomradio said:
Which is why I also say we need to buy 40 Su-57s for induction post 2025.
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I don't think MoD will grant budget for this. They have their own AMCA program lagging by 20 years as you already know. Or at max, 10 Su 57 and ToT in RAM coating to build AMCA.
randomradio said:
All we had to do was induct the Derby ER for the MKI when it was ready, and we wouldn't be in such a hurry to induct Rafales with Meteors
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May be because they want to counter S400 and HQ9 with Rafales? Or may be to stop French that don't given something to Pakistan, related to scropene subs or old Mirage V?
 
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