Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

I dont know what makes most of the ppl think that china does not know its disadvantages of operating from higher altitude airfields. They will obviously would have factored it in just like we would have.

Most of our armchair analysis is no different from what ppl on our western borders do , letting our creative imagination run wild as if we have been fighting wars for living. Before we send all those jets & missiles flying , first & foremost we should be able to send ration & necessities to the troops without any disruption by the enemy or nature. Given the fact that some of our soldiers lost their lives due to hypothermia should not be lost on us. Our infrastructure & ability to treat & evacuate injured in a timely manner is also important.
 
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Defc0n said:
Just like India has allowed China to build up & deploy, similarly, China is also allowing India to deploy & stock up.
I sense that the Chinese are not confident about attacking India, otherwise, they would have done so by now.
Now whether we use these or not totally depends on China. I am sure that we won't be firing the first bullet!

So, it remains to be seen, at what point China feels comfortable about starting an armed conflict with India (if at all).
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They don't need to fire the first shot. They've already transgressed into our part of the LAC. They're waiting for India to fire the first shot & with that any pretense the Chinese had of adhering to the spirit & letter of all the mutual agreements we've signed with them goes up in smoke. Pakistan is going to be China's Trump card. They're the only joker in the pack we've not completely factored in our game plans up until now, all that talk of a two front war notwithstanding.
 
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_Anonymous_ said:
They don't need to fire the first shot. They've already transgressed into our part of the LAC. They're waiting for India to fire the first shot & with that any pretense the Chinese had of adhering to the spirit & letter of all the mutual agreements we've signed with them goes up in smoke. Pakistan is going to be China's Trump card. They're the only joker in the pack we've not completely factored in our game plans up until now, all that talk of a two front war notwithstanding.
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I highly doubt that we will start the hostilities. India can never be seen as the 'aggressor' remember?
Had we not had that mental blockage, we could have hit Chinese positions preemptively. They would have got the message loud & clear and long back.
So if China waits for India to fire first, India wont. There you have it, a deadlock.

Also, Pakistan's involvement is given in case the action starts. China might also instigate a first strike via Pak army / PAF.
 
Defc0n said:
I highly doubt that we will start the hostilities. India can never be seen as the 'aggressor' remember?
Had we not had that mental blockage, we could have hit Chinese positions preemptively. They would have got the message loud & clear and long back.
So if China waits for India to fire first, India wont. There you have it, a deadlock.

Also, Pakistan's involvement is given in case the action starts. China might also instigate a first strike via Pak army / PAF.
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how will the world know who fired the first shot when they are not ready believe either of them?
hostilities with pakistan might happen, only thing that might prevent them is pressure from ME muslim countries & US. They might start and then backoff if they are able to make some gains. This would be the moment to have UN observers on the border.

Guess whoever strikes & able to make initial gains will have the upper hand. No time to pussy-foot around and say measured/calibrated response.
 
Defc0n said:
I highly doubt that we will start the hostilities. India can never be seen as the 'aggressor' remember?
Had we not had that mental blockage, we could have hit Chinese positions preemptively. They would have got the message loud & clear and long back.
So if China waits for India to fire first, India wont. There you have it, a deadlock.

Also, Pakistan's involvement is given in case the action starts. China might also instigate a first strike via Pak army / PAF.
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I never stated that India would strike first. All I stated was it's China's expectations that India would. And for good reason too. They're sitting on our territory. We aren't sitting on their territory. Seen from another perspective, the incident on 15th July were also calculated to provoke an armed response from India. That we didn't was credit to the IA's discipline.

India triggering off the conflict would most likely see Paxtan enter the fray. I'm increasingly coming around to this conclusion. Unless of course, Modi has managed to ask the US to rein in Paxtan. I see no evidence of it happening. Early days yet but apart from the EAM briefing our friends & approaching them with a shopping list for arms, there's little by way of diplomatic activities by us. Which could signify two developments - either Modi has decided that this would end by negotiations only ( in which case the outcome is a foregone conclusion) or he's playing his cards too close to his chest & only time will reveal what he's planned out.
 
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jetray said:
how will the world know who fired the first shot when they are not ready believe either of them?
hostilities with pakistan might happen, only thing that might prevent them is pressure from ME muslim countries & US. They might start and then backoff if they are able to make some gains. This would be the moment to have UN observers on the border.

Guess whoever strikes & able to make initial gains will have the upper hand. No time to pussy-foot around and say measured/calibrated response.
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I get your point. However, it is as a policy that we never start the hostility.
Conflict with Pak is possible only if China is involved, Pakistan will not get involved only to get roasted if China doesn't attack.
Also, UN won't do jack!
UN is a farce and every one knows it!


_Anonymous_ said:
I never stated that India would strike first. All I stated was it's China's expectations that India would. And for good reason too. They're sitting on our territory. We aren't sitting on their territory. Seen from another perspective, the incident on 15th July were also calculated to provoke an armed response from India. That we didn't was credit to the IA's discipline.

India triggering off the conflict would most likely see Paxtan enter the fray. I'm increasingly coming around to this conclusion. Unless of course, Modi has managed to ask the US to rein in Paxtan. I see no evidence of it happening. Early days yet but apart from the EAM briefing our friends & approaching them with a shopping list for arms, there's little by way of diplomatic activities by us. Which could signify two developments - either Modi has decided that this would end by negotiations only ( in which case the outcome is a foregone conclusion) or he's playing his cards too close to his chest & only time will reveal what he's planned out.
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If it could end by negotiations only, why are we stocking up arms now?
I am not sure but I feel GoI appreciates that this has a high chance of spiralling in to a fight where diplomacy wont work.
 
_Anonymous_ said:
They don't need to fire the first shot. They've already transgressed into our part of the LAC. They're waiting for India to fire the first shot & with that any pretense the Chinese had of adhering to the spirit & letter of all the mutual agreements we've signed with them goes up in smoke. Pakistan is going to be China's Trump card. They're the only joker in the pack we've not completely factored in our game plans up until now, all that talk of a two front war notwithstanding.
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China is already expert in land grabbing without firing any shots. China literally walked into Tibet without any resistance and all the Indian land grab in recent times has been without firing any shots. They will continue their land grab with sticks and stones till India fires.
 
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shaxm said:
That only helps in brahmos ability to strike the target. How does it evade being hit from the s400? Firstly the launching point of brahmos cannt be more than 400 km even in a air to surface mode. This is already in the range of s400 detectors. Secondly it will anyways be detected when its close enough to s400 and probably the time is still enough for it to take off brahmos. Barak 8 system has already demonstrated it can take down brahmos. The best bet to take off s400 is a surface to surface mode missile with range > 400 km. Brahmos has much smaller range in that mode.
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The detection range of all targets by S400 is not 400kms. A brahmos type target which falls under 0.1sqm RCS will be detected very very late and by than the speed of the missile will be able to overcome the reaction of the missile system.

Abhay rajput said:
Excellent analysis sir. But what about there airforce numbers. They have exactly double the number of 4+ generation aircrafts than us and there bomber are problems with stand-off missiles of more than 1000km . How do you think we will be able to neutralize these bombers. They will fire those missiles from far inland. And also there s400 could be neutralized by harop drones in numbers . We already have 150 + and last year we ordered more of them .
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I had very clearly stated that while PLAAF has numbers, it does not have corresponding infra in Tibet to operate such large number of aircraft. PLAAF is more oriented towards Japan and Taiwan and SCS. It is not about how many aircraft you have but about how many can you bring to battle.
 
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vstol Jockey said:
The detection range of all targets by S400 is not 400kms. A brahmos type target which falls under 0.1sqm RCS will be detected very very late and by than the speed of the missile will be able to overcome the reaction of the missile system.
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We should cancel S-400 acquisition if its so easy to neutralize the system.
 
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Arvind said:
We should cancel S-400 acquisition if its so easy to neutralize the system.
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My understanding is the terrain plays a vital part.
India will be using the S-400s well within our border. Therefore, to destroy it an adversary has to cross over while being tracked all the way.
In this case, China has to use it very close to the border in a mountainous region where the radar's capabilities will get hampered by the terrain to a great extent. Honestly, even though in theory it sounds plausible that Chinese S-400s can be taken out easily, need to wait and see how it pans out in practice (if at all).
 
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Arvind said:
We should cancel S-400 acquisition if its so easy to neutralize the system.
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It is never a stand-alone SAM unit but a whole Air Defence architecture that works. It includes all types of ADS units, interceptors, radars and other sensors. IMO Chinese have disadvantage in interceptor and radar parts. That is why it is easier for us to take down their S400 units.
 
vstol Jockey said:
The detection range of all targets by S400 is not 400kms. A brahmos type target which falls under 0.1sqm RCS will be detected very very late and by than the speed of the missile will be able to overcome the reaction of the missile system.


I had very clearly stated that while PLAAF has numbers, it does not have corresponding infra in Tibet to operate such large number of aircraft. PLAAF is more oriented towards Japan and Taiwan and SCS. It is not about how many aircraft you have but about how many can you bring to battle.
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Well they can always create more infrastructure . We all know how good they are building stuff. That's what worries me. What if they start creating more airbases in the next 1/2 weeks to house more fighter jets. That's where the problem lies. IAF if want to fight 2 front war and win they should at least have enough planes as Chinese.
 
jetray said:
I dont know what makes most of the ppl think that china does not know its disadvantages of operating from higher altitude airfields. They will obviously would have factored it in just like we would have.
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Judging from all the conflicts China is picking up, I sense a bit of stupidity in their plans. Heck even US does not do that.
Abhay rajput said:
Well they can always create more infrastructure . We all know how good they are building stuff.
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The "stuff" they need to build and where they need to build is not easy. Also, its not the "stuff" as much of a problem, its also "where" is the problem. You can build infra but that won't change geography.
 
Abhay rajput said:
What if they start creating more airbases in the next 1/2 weeks to house more fighter jets.
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Does not quite work like that. Blast pens, repair infra etc take way longer to build than say some shed to house coronavirus patients.
Arvind said:
We should cancel S-400 acquisition if its so easy to neutralize the system.
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Problem is not S-400. Problem is Brahmos or Oniks P-800 is a hard target to kill. S-400 is really good against say taking out slow moving force multipliers like tankers and AWACS from a great distance. Especially of our western enemy. Or denying them to operate near border.
S-400 is really good against slow moving cruise missiles or ALCMs.

Brahmos is also not a cheap missile as compared to say Tomahawk. It was meant to take out ships and high value targets.
 
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Govt should purchase ramjet artillery shells and long range rocket projectors. Additional T90s, Arjun, K9, and all types of indigenous artillery pieces as much as we can get.
For Airforce there should be emergency purchase of armed drones ASAP. We should try to lease some force multipliers too from the stock of friendly countries.
For navy nothing could be delivered in such a short span but we should try to get Tsircons if they are operational.
 
Aurora said:
It is never a stand-alone SAM unit but a whole Air Defence architecture that works. It includes all types of ADS units, interceptors, radars and other sensors. IMO Chinese have disadvantage in interceptor and radar parts. That is why it is easier for us to take down their S400 units.
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I am assuming you believe India have better interceptors and Radars than China to safeguard their own S-400 once acquired.
 
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