Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates
- Thread starter Shashank
- Start date
This was my own "flag" to see what is happening.
If we were posturing in the military direction (just posturing), one of the crucial steps would have been reduction in diplomatic staff in China. Till that happens, there is nothing military in very concrete terms.
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Then the Chinese will simply repeat this elsewhere now.
Only a delusive personality will claim 'militarily building up to throw PLA out.'
No political will. Nada.
Had there been, routine leaves and turnovers would not be on. Reserves would have been called up. Nothing
So, enjoy and look towards securing your own personal incomes and profession
I personally don't think we should fight until a few things are achieved first. Dealing with China should be a long term strategy instead of devolving into a knee-jerk reaction with limited objectives, like Kargil War.
One should be the total delinking of the Chinese economy from India's. There should be plenty of vested interests acting against India in the economic front within our own country, so we should create alternatives and then raise tariffs to 200% along with introducing other NTBs, the way we did it with Pakistan. Remove the vested interests from the roots first.
Second would be to prepare the average Indian to deal with China, with articles talking about how dangerous the Chinese threat really is. And this has to come from our highest offices, preferably from the armed forces. Indians should start seeing the Chinese as enemies, the same way the US turned public opinion against the Soviet Union among Americans. With zero or near-zero economic links, this shouldn't be very difficult. The armed forces need to start interacting with the public more closely, like they do in the US, although I don't think the cowardly and suspicious bureaucracy will allow that.
Third would be to modernise the military. GoI is already working on two separate procurement plans in two phases, one to fight a limited war and the minimum amount of weapons required for it, the other to modernise the entire military. So, while Phase 1 is going on, although not at the speed one would wish, the second phase is in the dumps and has to be revived. GoI and industry seem to have finally arrived at some sort of solution to their quandry, so RFP releases for long term deals shouldn't have any roadblocks anymore. Hopefully some this year and all of them next year.
Lastly, all future negotiations in any sphere with China should be linked with the boundary dispute. "You want to build a factory in India, let's settle the boundary dispute first", and so on.
In the meantime, we should create a coalition in the economic sphere to persuade larger countries to give up goods imports from China, and convince them to create alternate supply chains in a whole host of other countries, even if at a slightly greater cost to themselves. Japan's already doing a good job of that. Similarly, create a reverse Great Firewall, where access to Chinese apps is removed from Google and Apple's app stores in all like-minded countries, particularly those with active problems with China. Furthermore, convince ASEAN and other countries to reverse their RCEP decision.
India lacks the political will because the country lacks the comprehensive national power needed to enforce an aggressive political will. Until the CNP is good, having an aggressive political will is pointless. Kargil War was a pretty retarded war, and we must definitely not see a repeat of that. The objectives set must be much, much higher, a completely dispproportionate amount of punishement meted out for such transgression.
We will accept it again. In 10-15 years haryana will be Hiyan-Xi.
We have already accepted a new status quo.
Only a delusive personality will claim 'militarily building up to throw PLA out.'
No political will. Nada.
Had there been, routine leaves and turnovers would not be on. Reserves would have been called up. Nothing
So, enjoy and look towards securing your own personal incomes and profession
That is pretty much the narrow perspective that Indians are known for.
We have got thousands of KIAs in Valley since 1947. What have we done of it? Did it make any difference to us? Apart from jingoism ... can you point out to me what difference did it make?
Sir , there are Three Examples of
Choosing the RIGHT Time for WAR
that I know of
1 ) MAHABHARAT
Pandavas wanted Immediate war after their Humiliation , But Krishna knew their weaknesses so he postponed it for
13 Years
2 ) SHIVAJI had to Surrender his 23 Forts to Aurangzeb , He accepted defeat for a While and then within 5 Years took back his Entire Kingdom and even more territory
3 ) The 27 year Mughal Maratha war
From a 1680.to 1707 was a Fight to the Finish , A no holds Barred conflict
And for 20 years Marathas were on the Defensive
But after 1700 they started winning and by 1707 , Mughals were completely defeated , Aurangzeb died of Grief
And the Mughal empire was hollowed out totally
So accepting defeat so SOON or Easily is Wrong
Let us keep accumulating and increasing our Military Strength
Long term strategy? This is India we are talking about, right?
Cann't be done. We don't have political will to even push back Nepal. Where will we get will to remove one of the Holy Trinity of India.
The only thing parallel to this kind of change in India is abolishment of feudal lordship. It had a political impetus. Majority held political power and feudal lords were cornered by the ruling socialists of congress party. Even that took far too long.
Average Indian does not see China as an enemy because there is no religious angle to it. Go to hindi heartland of UP-Bihar and it will be hard to sell China as a threat. US was able to sell Soviet threat by linking (possibly falsely) Communism as anti-freedom. Freedom was almost a religious commodity in USA in 1950s when McCarthyism took hold. Infact, US propaganda mixed religious sentiments in the cocktail --- Soviets were often referred as Godless Reds.
Problem is, you cann't sell Chinese-Hate in the same fashion to Indians. Chinese are NOT anti-Hindu. They are at best anti-Religion but Hinduism and China have never seen each other face to face. Hindus are not afraid of anti-Religion or atheism, we are afraid of anti-Hinduism.
Not gonna happen, we don't have government revenue and/or an efficient bureaucracy to attain such goal. Lets park increasing the "government revenue" aside... we all know what that will entail.
If you want to fix bureaucracy, it will require a revolution. Not against visible ruling class (ie politicians) but dabba wallas / bureaucracy. I am not aware of ANY such revolution in the history. Simply put, your enemies are deeply entrenched in the system, hidden, hard to understand and the worst part, it is YOU (ie Indian Citizens) yourself. IAS and Senior official in south block are aspirational positions attainable by masses of India. They won't revolt against the same.
Chinese have many ways to enter Indian market. Putting money in Indian owned company HQ'ed outside India comes to mind.
This all is happening but its impact is limited. China is a massive market in itself.
Errrr. nope.
Reason is simple. No one who matters in India suffers due to strategic loss to India and no one in India gains from strategic gains of India. So.... they give a damn. Consider India's stance against Pakistan. Only politicians are affected a bit, so they at times do some for-name-sake steps. Lemme put it in this way. Tomorrow, if India loses entire Himachal Pradesh, no one in Beaurocracy or Parliament or Businessmen or even upper echelons of Military will suffer any real loss. So why should it matter to them?
Territorial Changes are Not permanent
Nothing is written in Stone
That is what Human history shows us
Heard these nothing will happen arguements quite a lot. While opp has happened. Heard the other way around too.
If people do not know they should stick with that. Instead of thier pointless predictions.
Till now, no one has been able to predict Modi's actions. The real answer here is " I don't know". Which is too hard for "experts" here to admit.
If people do not know they should stick with that. Instead of thier pointless predictions.
Till now, no one has been able to predict Modi's actions. The real answer here is " I don't know". Which is too hard for "experts" here to admit.
Well thats what they were doing all along. Its only we thought the current govt will change that.
No war for now thats a good thing, we are hardly prepared for it. Time will tell whether it is bihar election/temple or china that matters.
We need to deal with pakistan first and clean them up. In my view china some what can wait. We need a long term strategy for them. More than any thing it has again exposed our intelligence gathering mechanism, kargil,doklam, ladakh...etc the list is only growing.
More than that I am surprised that current govt has gone completely silent on Pakistan occupied Kashmir. Amit shah/Rajnath singh were crowing from the top that we will be having it tmmrww. This crisis has certainly showed that current govt has big on words but short of action. Planning & strategy is totally absent and all that we see is monkey business. pakistan on the other hand has now started indulging in cartographic cartwheeling. Those idiots even have showed parts of gujarat (junagadh) belonging to pakistan.
We need to deal with pakistan first and clean them up. In my view china some what can wait. We need a long term strategy for them. More than any thing it has again exposed our intelligence gathering mechanism, kargil,doklam, ladakh...etc the list is only growing.
More than that I am surprised that current govt has gone completely silent on Pakistan occupied Kashmir. Amit shah/Rajnath singh were crowing from the top that we will be having it tmmrww. This crisis has certainly showed that current govt has big on words but short of action. Planning & strategy is totally absent and all that we see is monkey business. pakistan on the other hand has now started indulging in cartographic cartwheeling. Those idiots even have showed parts of gujarat (junagadh) belonging to pakistan.
There's an element of truth to that. Without a religious-angle to it, you cannot get hinterland Indians unnerved & all riled up. Most revolutions/mutinies in Bharat historically, had "offence to religious sensibilities" at its core, along with other ancillary factors.
That still works. Good or bad.
However, we can still galvanize Indian citizenry towards the "Mission Kick -China". Nothing is un-doable as long as there is a will to throw enough resources & time to it. Time, I agree, we might not have on our side, as much as we would like to.
With a 1.5 m standing army , India still needs the good wishes of a riled up citizenary ? I suggest we keep a few hundred soldiers of the army for republic day march past and depend on the riled up citizenary for defence.
The problem is not that we are not prepared but that we are never prepared. Except 71 thanks to few months preparations by manekshaw.
The defence forces need to awaken their inner OROP and defend the country's borders.
The failure is at a senior level with the brass more passionate about their birth certificates and new fancy designations , rather than forging a national defense system. We see the panic buying every few years. Signs of the rot.
No point blaming politicians like modi , who wont know the difference between 0.303 and 7.62 .
Politicians dont have continuity in their tenure but the army brass does.
One can defend ones territory through actual capability or bluff. The first we dont have against China and the 2nd we cant maintain because our top brass has become very fond of tv channels and Twitter, right after retirement.
That's one part of the story, one aspect that @Saaho commented on.
Now here's my take on it: South Block does need the "mood" of the nation to be galvanized towards a common larger cause (which will inevitably lead to adverse consequences on personal front) for executing momentous, trailblazing strikes against the defacto economic superpower. Politicians earn the cliched "political will" by ensuring that they have voter constituency secured for him, irrespective of the outcome.
The vast majority of Bharat isn't prepared for another war now; "limited" or otherwise is frankly not our choice alone. We are already battling a malady of cataclysmic proportions & we are way too far away from having weathered the storm. Let's first emerge triumphant from the ongoing existential crisis, which has taken a toll of livelihood of millions.
Until then, our appetite for a military confrontation against China remains stuff of arm-chair keyboard warriors wet dreams.
Doesn't means that we have already exhausted all weapons in our arsenal to defang the lizard-emperor "Shee", Lifetime Chairman of CPC & CMC. We haven't crossed any rubicon or even breached the obvious thresholds, we have barely begun. Just getting started...
There are varied calculations involved in this ever-convoluted strategic calculus & politicians' survival depends on the having the larger "national mood" behind him. One need to simply observe the sequential steps in which powers-that-be operate.
- CNP does matter.
- A galvanized nation can achieved anything under the sun.
- Not kneejerk reactions, but calibrated "cost-imposition" while covering our tracks (economic decoupling & walling off the Chinese capital") on the adversary works.
That's quite an indictment. Respected "Professionals" might see to it.
@vstol Jockey @Falcon
I think Chinese plan is to fatigue Indian forces and Indian economy. They know they will face huge losses if not outright defeat if they try with hammer approach. What they are looking for is minor theater level operations every now and then and engage in negotiations right after conflict. They will keep the pot boiling until we give up because they can engage in long standoff. It's natural evolution from salami slicing to keeping LAC hot. They are going after our perseverance, our resolve to keep them engaged. They know we won't take the initiative or escalate beyond reasonable force.
PLA will make environment of imminent war and then back-off. Once they achieve a small victory, they will try to demoralize us using propaganda and then strike with full force.
Jai Shree Raam.
Today we have achieved what we could not in last 492 years. The furture will unfold as per the kathan of Shree Tulsidasji,
Vinay na manat jaldhi jadh, Gayeh teen din beet,
Boley Raam Sakop tab, bhey bin hoyeh na preet.
Time is fast running out for China and PLA. They will get what they asked for and very very soon. IA will not sit out for winter. They will repeat what PLA did in 1962. We will attack them before the winters set in.
All I can say is that formations are being assigned specific tasks.
Today we have achieved what we could not in last 492 years. The furture will unfold as per the kathan of Shree Tulsidasji,
Vinay na manat jaldhi jadh, Gayeh teen din beet,
Boley Raam Sakop tab, bhey bin hoyeh na preet.
Time is fast running out for China and PLA. They will get what they asked for and very very soon. IA will not sit out for winter. They will repeat what PLA did in 1962. We will attack them before the winters set in.
All I can say is that formations are being assigned specific tasks.
This is a very interesting situation. IMHO and as far as I know, we are being threatened with war exactly because of this: "we are hardly prepared for it.". Had we closed our gaps in a timely manner like having enough squadrons, artillery, guns, ammunition, border infra and diplomatic military ties then we would not have seen this situation. Our neglect of defence as a priority is responsible for this situation.
We HAD challenged a super power in '71 and successfully managed its threat. Somewhere down the line we missed that spirit.
No one threatens any one who is prepared for war. Its only when they smell weakness do they come in. If India was in a better spot China would not have risked losses and humiliation. It came in because it saw a chance with a weak neighbor.
This whole - we are not prepared is a steaming pile of bull crap and nothing else.
Bang on. That's some observation.
Thanks to the alliance (Friendship & Mutual Defence treaty) we had with another Superpowa..
Now we have chosen to trade Non-alignment talisman with the Strategic Autonomy buzzword & decided firmly against any alliance, in order to preserve our hard-earned sovereignty & then earn some room for any diplomatic-realignment & political maneuvering, should need be.
We do not trust US. They would be eager to throw us Indian establishment under the bus, even before Trump earns a New Deal (read, Trade Deal) with the lizard emperor. Neither can we afford to antagonize US arch-enemy Russia, on whom rests our Defence supplies & whom we view as a strategic pivot in our aspirational vision of muti-polar world .
Russia has a peerless nuisance value as a disruption-causing agent in Eurasia & even beyond. Not in our interest to antagonize Putin by embracing an unreliable, fickle so-called ally (Yankees), who has a unrelenting penchant to intrude, watch over, snoop, poke their nose around and throw diktats around.
Imagine Rusi-Cheeni-Porky nexus breathing on our necks....
Aren't we already in enough of a soup, to invite further trouble by going all the way in courting US for formal alignment ?
No thanks, we will survive. Better, we will thrive.