And how come mellowing down the extent of chinese invasion help create that mood? Or getting into diversionary tactics?
When all is well, who want a war? Indians are not maniac afterall.
Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates
- Thread starter Shashank
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And how come mellowing down the extent of chinese invasion help create that mood? Or getting into diversionary tactics?
When all is well, who want a war? Indians are not maniac afterall.
Lemme put it in this way, thanks to TIMELY alliance with Russia.
BINGO!
Though I wonder how come nations like Japan and South Korea see their "hard-earned sovereignty" while being entangled with NATO/US.
Russia is interesting. It was once a strategic partner on diplomatic front. But that has changed since Russia has thrown its cards in the Chinese deck. At that point, Russia is a weapons supplier and sometimes a diplomatic neutral seat warmer in UNSC.
Good thing is that we do not and we can not have any real issue with Russia -- We are simply far away from them and their own vulnerabilities. All of our potential differences can come in form of their commitment to China AND our possible diplomatic positions taken in forums like UN due our own possible entanglement with US. Simply put, we can potentially become to Russia what Turkey is to us with respect our conflict with Pakistan : An irritant due to the diplomatic position and military help to our enemy but no real conflict between us.
The question is, how come Japan, Korea, Israel etc are thriving and holding against their opponent while leveraging US and NATO's muscles? What is so special about us that we will invite trouble. Or more trouble than say Japan or Korea or Israel or even Taiwan?
Secondly, IF we go for a formal alignment with US RIGHT NOW, indeed it will come at a steeper price. We are basically asking for fire insurance for a house where sparks are flying off the attic. It SHOULD have been done over a period of 10-20 years or so, when Russia leaned hard in Chinese camp.
You align when your preferred partner NEEDS you direly, to get the best deal, not when you are in dire need. Also with US, we should have played transactionally for a while before locking in the alliance. Right now, our transactions in diplomatic and military space are limited at best.
Actually, I remember something on the lines being said from US side during MRCA competition: "India has decided fighter purely on technical merit and not on merit of USA's partnership".
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They had a big bad bully on their door and knew without the US they did not stand a chance. That helped them swallow the bitter pill of an alliance with the US.
In return they had to deal with
Rapist American soldiers
Shitty Trade deals
Compulsion to buy American
While your initial assessment sounds accurate, afraid that Turkey analogy might be just a little far-fetched. Russian Empire & Ottomon Empire have been civilizational foes fighting major wars consecutively for over 350 years, arch-nemesis would be rather accurate.
Tied to the hip
, destined to fight till the end, until one side is vanquished.Only the culmination of World War I brought this conflict to the end when German Bolshevik agents managed to sabotage the hallowed Russian state from within, while the Sick Man of Europe simply withered away, out the long-festering rot within.
While Bharat historically never had any reason or occasion to tussle with Russia, zero historical baggage. That our land was a playground for power-projection dominance between Czar & HM British Empire for almost 150 years is almost inconsequential.
Even without getting into a formal alliance, we can protect our interests rather well.
Diplomatically, IMHO, we are treading rather well. Just need to focus on economics & developing war-fighting capacities, with substantial indigenous %, as everyone has been stressing on, time & again.
Need to further rise up "Ease of Business" ladder, tame the bureaucratic tendency for retrogressive taxation & introduce tax-regime stability, simultaneously bell the proverbial cats by reducing the wildly wavering variables or unknowns in Land & Labour regulations. Give the reforms some sense of permanency, not limit it to 3 years - as done in UP/Gujrat. Hopefully someday our education system will spawn more job-creators than seekers.
But first, defeat the Cheeni BioWarfare & get better equipped this time for what lifetime-lizard-emperor might unleash next. Black Death, another Influenza, yada yada. This factor - the potential or likelihood of asymmetric-warfare being waged upon us in future by an adversary - should play a permanent role in our policy-making, & we need to be perpetually on our toes. Until we develop the capacity to take the war within & extricate CPC/PLA combine from PRC & save the world again
Japan - Pacifist constitution. Can't develop missile beyond this payload, that range, cant deploy aircraft carrier, or deploy it & name is helicopter carrier
Just we want to live like that under Yankee boots ?Like how the the Okinawa denizens feel about continued US occupation ?
This is a much, much worse fate than Germany.
Korea - Not even a question. They are geographically doomed. They wouldn't more than a few months against PLA-NoKo onslaught (months because of the hills, else weeks) They are perpetual existential crisis. Only thing standing between them & Commies are US Info-Pacific Command.
We are already the blessed one, with almost all the inherent advantages, basically whatever it takes to defend ourselves.
- Just the right geo-location with Tropic of Cancer passing right though the center,
- Peninsular India jutting deep into the India Ocean like a wedge (sea-routes for trade),
- Glacial-fed perennial rivers along with with largest % of fertile soil in the world (that too, the most fertile) that supports world's largest population,
- Reasonable mineral base (Thorium waiting to be exploited),
- No dearth of conventional (Coal, Gas, Hydro) or Non-conventional (Solar, Wind, Biomass, Tidal) energy sources
- Advantages in emerging technologies
- Formidable Border-sentries in the form of Himalaya, Thar & our massive backyard - Indian ocean
- Then, the oft-repeated demographic dividend . Yes, that too, can still be an asset if we really move fast enough. We have a 15 years window left.
We just need to leverage these advantages better. Why so desperate to cling to Yankee bosom, a power which is already past its prime.
Wherever Indo-US interests converge (PRC, ME, West Asia, Oil, Gas, Nepal, Iran), lets continue to collaborate, complement & build upon the relationship. Wherever they diverge (Climate, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India's position in world order as as independent revisionist state w.r.t the P5 etc.), lets continue to identify some middle ground initially & squeeze as much juice as we can, while the time is ripe.
As soon as US elections are over & God forbid, if Biden returns (he will), things will change - albeit not immediately.
Japan - doomed to its destiny due to its eternal folly, arising out of its daredevilry to challenge the Anglo-American might during WW2. Japan war-making potential is woefully limited & they have known it forever. Their Pacifist Constitution imposed upon them by Yankee boots have ensured it. It cannot even defend itself for long without US Navy & Marines. Not so in our case.
Korea- No option. Their very geography is a sorry state of affairs. Already mentioned in my previous response.
Israel - If you look at it real close, their Foreign Policy isn't as much determined by US, as US FP getting influenced by Jew election-donors & bankers. They get what they want, modify & sell it & also develop whatever they can. At times, they give two hoots to what WhiteHouse's public admonishments against their alleged human-right slights. Ought to learn a lot from them. Our ArmedForces, CAPF, Intelligence apparatus already does.
Irrespective, we can avail huge befits from a closer Indo-US relationship without ever getting into an alliance.
Heck, I sound like a broken record.
Damn right, you are
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these guys need help. ISPR should give a crash course.
The comparison was between India's possible conflict with two nations. Turkey and Russia. Turkey has issues of other with India, none of their own. Similarly, if we had aligned with USA deeper, our issues with Russia would be similar. In bigger picture, they would be just irritants not mortal enemies.
Russia-Turkey relations are out of my analogy.
Problem with a purely transactional relationship is that transactions happen when parties have a immediate need. Take '62 war. US was busy with Cuban conflict and could not be bothered with what is happening in east. Now HAD China invaded Japan, would US have sit pretty? Hell no!
It was not a coincidence that China chose the moment to invade India in 62 when US was occupied elsewhere. It happened again in 2020. Though this time around we didn't even show up to fight.
While India has many potentials, its kinetics is broken at a very deep level. Nothing moves in India well. Meanwhile, China is ALL about kinetics. All about speed. And it showed and is showing now. While we were twiddling our thumbs, they were deploying forces, building structures, infra and moving the front. What you need is a speed bump. A mental speed bump. Something to make china stop and think about the possible consequences. It won't last for ever, but hopefully we will get enough time to mend the broken bones of India's defence forces.
For all the things against Japan, they have a proper and well equipped self defence force which does that exactly. Defend Japan. Japan currently does not need a power projection force. India has some elements of force projection but a totally broken and severely unequipped military to even defend against our neighbors.
I mean, its like having on arm muscular but rest of the body paralyzed.
So the dead chinese soldiers at galwan died in a road accident.. just like Pakistani soldiers tend to die in road accidents durig artillery duels on loc
India Rebuffs China, Refuses To Disengage Further Along Pangong Tso
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After taking stock of @easterncomd & meeting all corps commanders in Tezpur, tomorrow #COAS Gen MM Naravane would directly head to Central Command Hq in #Lucknow
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