Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

Expect the Chinese to crawl back to the previously vacated places as well. Our establishment just doesn't learn.
There is a bigger problem. The problem is inherent in our bureaucracy. Its called "Cover my posterior" syndrome. Bureaucracy has been set up in such a way that inaction and incompetence seldom hurts (you just say that I had no orders to do so and who will take responsibility for X) but any normal failures do, together with no rewards for initiative and successes. Basically everyone is out looking for an excuse for pulling others down.

This is what it leads to are the situations like we see in LAC and our lack of general preparedness on defence front. Our government is NOT poor in any sense of word (there are governments with much lesser budgets but with beefier defence preparedness and posture) its bureaucrats are simply selected for inaction and incompetence. This is why defence deals take forever and Indian government is in a perpetual state of compromising every where.
 
There is a bigger problem. The problem is inherent in our bureaucracy. Its called "Cover my posterior" syndrome. Bureaucracy has been set up in such a way that inaction and incompetence seldom hurts (you just say that I had no orders to do so and who will take responsibility for X) but any normal failures do, together with no rewards for initiative and successes. Basically everyone is out looking for an excuse for pulling others down.

This is what it leads to are the situations like we see in LAC and our lack of general preparedness on defence front. Our government is NOT poor in any sense of word (there are governments with much lesser budgets but with beefier defence preparedness and posture) its bureaucrats are simply selected for inaction and incompetence. This is why defence deals take forever and Indian government is in a perpetual state of compromising every where.
The primary problem for us is, it no longer depends on the government you elect. There is not a single party who can do the job without screwing up. Be it MMS, or be it NaMo. From total silence we upgraded to, "koi anadar nahi aya ... ", and the core problem remains exactly the same, sheer incompetence! Despite Dokalam, we didn't learn a thing, we played into the hands of the Chinese again. It is like doing the same thing over & over again and expecting different results. Which sane military let go of positions of advantage thereby leveling the playing field or even providing advantage to the adversary??
 
The primary problem for us is, it no longer depends on the government you elect.
Bingo! Its not as much Modi and Gandhi but the bureaucrat in charge. The netajis are not even capable of understanding what the heck is going on.

There is not a single party who can do the job without screwing up. Be it MMS, or be it NaMo.
True!

From total silence we upgraded to, "koi anadar nahi aya ... ", and the core problem remains exactly the same, sheer incompetence!
The root cause of incompetence is simple. It does not hurt being incompetent in that area. No one is losing votes or jobs and pension/limbs because of incompetence.

Despite Dokalam, we didn't learn a thing, we played into the hands of the Chinese again.
We learnt but we did not apply anything. These folks are very quick learner. If not they cannot survive.

It is like doing the same thing over & over again and expecting different results. Which sane military let go of positions of advantage thereby leveling the playing field or even providing advantage to the adversary??
Put it mildly, there is not enough reason for beauracracy and to an extent politicians to fix defence. Public votes based on perception and religion. Political and beaurocratic decisions are mainly to support careers of beaurocrats and to enable re-election of politicians.
 
I think govt went extra mile to prevent similar situation, or armed conflict at the least, in future by showing good faith because the trajectory we are on, it seems inevitable.

Ain't no such thing as good faith with the Chinese though. It's always all or nothing.

Looks like bureaucrats are running the show instead of the army or the govt.
 
Ain't no such thing as good faith with the Chinese though. It's always all or nothing.

Looks like bureaucrats are running the show instead of the army or the govt.
Bingo! Its not as much Modi and Gandhi but the bureaucrat in charge. The netajis are not even capable of understanding what the heck is going on.


True!


The root cause of incompetence is simple. It does not hurt being incompetent in that area. No one is losing votes or jobs and pension/limbs because of incompetence.


We learnt but we did not apply anything. These folks are very quick learner. If not they cannot survive.


Put it mildly, there is not enough reason for beauracracy and to an extent politicians to fix defence. Public votes based on perception and religion. Political and beaurocratic decisions are mainly to support careers of beaurocrats and to enable re-election of politicians.


These bureaucrats will be the bane of our existence, it's just the matter of time.
The Chinese were shoring up national support and sympathy by showing the clips from Galwan clash - that should have been an indication of their intentions. I am pretty confident that we will see another Chinese incursion and probably and they will probably take our last action into account while planning their op this time. So a big thumps up & kudos to whoever planned our royal f*** up. It was really a job well done. :rolleyes:
 
These bureaucrats will be the bane of our existence, it's just the matter of time.
The Chinese were shoring up national support and sympathy by showing the clips from Galwan clash - that should have been an indication of their intentions. I am pretty confident that we will see another Chinese incursion and probably and they will probably take our last action into account while planning their op this time. So a big thumps up & kudos to whoever planned our royal f*** up. It was really a job well done. :rolleyes:

Only time can tell. We still don't know what cards the govt has up its sleeve yet. It's also likely that the Chinese are testing the waters some more but will eventually withdraw after more rounds of talks. I suppose they will keep this up until COVID ends, in order to put more pressure on our economy, so that they can then play up BRI as a way of restarting the economy a few months down the line. Perhaps pressure us to rejoin RCEP.

They want market access and we have denied them that, and we have cut them off even more after Galwan. So the economy may be their main goal now.
 
These bureaucrats will be the bane of our existence, it's just the matter of time.
The bureaucrats do not come out of thin air. They are essentially "US". Most of them come from middle class backgrounds. Their way of working is essentially "OUR" way of working with a little indoctrination from the established system.
Indian Middle class ie us is weirdly risk averse. It avoids risks in short term at the cost of long term risks. Its penny wise pound foolish. It shows in our beaurcratic thinking as well.
 
Two maimain questions that emerges from this whole episode are
1- Why Chinese came?
2- Why they are backtracking now without achieving something ?

For the first question I think the answer is that they came for what they always do i.e Salami slicing. Also I am sure that members here have heard about a news item to the effect that Chinese have proposed a permanent border solution, which we rejected. So it could very well be a pressure tactics for that but since not much ever came about it on open source so I am not sure.

Answer to the second question is what IMO intriguing most of the strategic thinkers both here and everywhere else, the reason being they are finding those answers in 1962. But according to me the answer lies in 1967 and 1987. In both of these episodes Chinese got a bloody nose and backtracked. And this is what I think has happened this time too. The fight at Galwan and occupying Kailash range was too great a surprise for the PLA and CCP. Hence they have agreed for conflict resolution. It is a pity though that our baby's didn't use our advantage to resolve other long standing issues like Depsang and Gogra HS, but then again that is too much to expect from them.
 
Two maimain questions that emerges from this whole episode are
1- Why Chinese came?
2- Why they are backtracking now without achieving something ?

For the first question I think the answer is that they came for what they always do i.e Salami slicing. Also I am sure that members here have heard about a news item to the effect that Chinese have proposed a permanent border solution, which we rejected. So it could very well be a pressure tactics for that but since not much ever came about it on open source so I am not sure.

Answer to the second question is what IMO intriguing most of the strategic thinkers both here and everywhere else, the reason being they are finding those answers in 1962. But according to me the answer lies in 1967 and 1987. In both of these episodes Chinese got a bloody nose and backtracked. And this is what I think has happened this time too. The fight at Galwan and occupying Kailash range was too great a surprise for the PLA and CCP. Hence they have agreed for conflict resolution. It is a pity though that our baby's didn't use our advantage to resolve other long standing issues like Depsang and Gogra HS, but then again that is too much to expect from them.


We practically killed their decades old WZC doctrine for limited war. So they activated some part of it before they lost the slightest bit of advantage they still hold in making use of it.

 
We need atleast 150 RAFALES , ie 114 plus 36 , for a permanent clampdown on the Chinese

Obviously we also need More Missiles ,MBRLs and ATAGS , K 9s and M 777

Chinese are cowards , they dont want to DIE for land


If they were really brave , they would have conquered TAIWAN by Now

Why same definition not be applied on Indians? Its more than 7 decades and our land is occupied by Pak and China.

TBH China is more closer to grab Taiwan than we are viz a viz PoK and Aksai Chin.
 
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The bureaucrats do not come out of thin air. They are essentially "US". Most of them come from middle class backgrounds. Their way of working is essentially "OUR" way of working with a little indoctrination from the established system.
Indian Middle class ie us is weirdly risk averse. It avoids risks in short term at the cost of long term risks. Its penny wise pound foolish. It shows in our beaurcratic thinking as well.

These bureaucrats are tasked to hide our forces incompetency and their unpreparedness for a war. These guys are working overtime to make India look good despite showing no spine militarily.

Balakot shows political and bureaucratic will to assert India's mandate, what transpire is a military debacle just very next day. That doesn't gave us much confidence .

@defcon
 
These bureaucrats are tasked to hide our forces incompetency and their unpreparedness for a war. These guys are working overtime to make India look good despite showing no spine militarily.

Balakot shows political and bureaucratic will to assert India's mandate, what transpire is a military debacle just very next day. That doesn't gave us much confidence .

@defcon

Our forces have been found wanting post balakote, sure! Don't forget the same force won 71, 99 against Pakistan, kicked chinese a## in 67, 86-87, 2020. The amount of success that we have against our adversaries should be enough for our bureaucrats to have some faith on our forces.

You cannot show me one military worldwide which has not gone through ops it would rather forget - balakote was bad, but still not as bad as you make it sound. The main problem was we allowed Pakistan to create a false narrative with the capture of Abhinandan. Had that not happened, it would have been a hell lot worse for Pak.

Example of botched op - Let's go back to the WW2 - Op Market Garden, a glorious failure - so does that make the British army junk?
 
Our forces have been found wanting post balakote, sure! Don't forget the same force won 71, 99 against Pakistan, kicked chinese a## in 67, 86-87, 2020. The amount of success that we have against our adversaries should be enough for our bureaucrats to have some faith on our forces.

You cannot show me one military worldwide which has not gone through ops it would rather forget - balakote was bad, but still not as bad as you make it sound. The main problem was we allowed Pakistan to create a false narrative with the capture of Abhinandan. Had that not happened, it would have been a hell lot worse for Pak.

Example of botched op - Let's go back to the WW2 - Op Market Garden, a glorious failure - so does that make the British army junk?

It all depends on what you classify as military victory especially when you are facing an enemy of size 1/7th of you having military budget 1/10 of you.

Do you feel proud when you hear things like "If we had Rafale....." and "If then else" despite these forces burning 10 times more money annually than Pakistan? Still left wanting for a firing solution?

Do you feel proud when a rogue air force targeted your pride and attacked your military HQ with no response of ours given back to their act of war?

71 was as much a victory for armed forces as for politicos. 99 I don't personally count as victory. Rest skirmishes are not well documented to know the actual truth.

Hear me out - Outcome or course of war are not decided by mere capture of a soldier, if your plan and writ is so hollow, stay safe in your bedrooms. We could have easily lost many Abhinandans the day we strike Balakot, the risk was well understood and taken. It was the incompetency shown a day later that we just kept ourselves content with our pilot release.
 
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It all depends on what you classify as military victory especially when you are facing an enemy of size 1/7th of you having military budget 1/10 of you.

Do you feel proud when you hear things like "If we had Rafale....." and "If then else" despite these forces burning 10 times more money annually than Pakistan? Still left wanting for a firing solution?

Do you feel proud when a rogue air force targeted your pride and attacked your military HQ with no response of ours given back to their act of war?

71 was as much a victory for armed forces as for politicos. 99 I don't personally count as victory. Rest skirmishes are not well documented to know the actual truth.

Hear me out - Outcome or course of war are not decided by mere capture of a soldier, if your plan and writ is so hollow, stay safe in your bedrooms. We could have easily lost many Abhinandans the day we strike Balakot, the risk was well understood and taken. It was the incompetency shown a day later that we just kept ourselves content with our pilot release.

Balakot and Feb 27 were atleast the symbol.of a Little Push back by India

It was infinitely better than playing Dossier Dossier , as that after 26 / 11

When you dont have a war for nearly
40.years , All weaknesses and inadequacies will remain Hidden

At least the limited skirmish led to improvements which helped us in the Long stand off against China

Improvements in ROEs , SOPs , Better Missiles and SDRs , more stand off weapons

The concepts of war are the same , whichever theatre they may be applied to

With Pakistan we will get many more chances
 
Seems things are back to normal china behaving as expected , no surprises here.

China refuses to leave Hot Springs, Gogra: ‘India should be happy with what has been achieved’​

The Sunday Express has learnt that on April 9, during the last round of talks at the Corps Commander-level, China refused to pull back its troops from Hot Springs and Gogra Post which, along with Depsang Plains, remain the friction points between the two sides​


Written by Krishn Kaushik | New Delhi |
Updated: April 18, 2021 7:32:19 am
Ladakh-eastern.jpg
A highly placed source, involved in decision-making all of 2020, told The Sunday Express that at Patrolling Point 15 and PP-17A in Hot Springs and Gogra Post, the Chinese “had agreed earlier” to pull back troops but “later refused to vacate”.
In a little over a fortnight from now, the standoff between Indian and Chinese troops along the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh will be a year old. Eleven rounds of military discussions later, it is still to be resolved, with the Chinese reluctant to return to troop locations before the start of the standoff.
The Sunday Express has learnt that on April 9, during the last round of talks at the Corps Commander-level, China refused to pull back its troops from Hot Springs and Gogra Post which, along with Depsang Plains, remain the friction points between the two sides — Indian and Chinese troops and armoured columns had disengaged on the north and south banks of Pangong Tso and the Kailash range in February.
Read |India will not be pushed, stood firm against China, says CDS Rawat
A highly placed source, involved in decision-making all of 2020, told The Sunday Express that at Patrolling Point 15 and PP-17A in Hot Springs and Gogra Post, the Chinese “had agreed earlier” to pull back troops but “later refused to vacate”. In the recent talks, according to the source, China said India “should be happy with what has been achieved”.

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At PP15 and PP17A, the source said, the current presence of Chinese troops is of “platoon strength”, down from the “company strength” earlier — an Indian Army platoon comprises 30-32 soldiers while a company consists of 100-120 personnel.
“For movement there, you don’t require paved roads, you can move on gravel tracks. There, the reaction capability is faster,” the source said, adding that “they are much inside the Indian side”.
At Pangong Tso, though there is temporary suspension of patrolling by the two sides between Finger 4 and Finger 8 on the north bank, the source pointed out that India had not been able to reach Finger 8, which it says marks the LAC, for two-three years before the start of the standoff.
Also Read |Regular Chinese Navy presence in Indian Ocean Region over past decade: Navy Chief
The situation at the Depsang Plains pre-dates the standoff. Indian forces, the source said, have not been able to access their traditional patrolling limits since 2013.
The Depsang Plains issue, the source said, was added to the military commander talks “later”.
“Nothing happened in Depsang during this entire crisis. In Depsang, they (the Chinese) have been coming across and blocking our patrols at a number of these patrol points.” Chinese troops, the source said, “come every day in their (Dongfeng) Humvees, and just block that passage”.
“We have to be clear, we are not on solid footing as far as the alignment (of the LAC) is concerned” in Depsang. Indian troops, the source said, are being blocked in Depsang “since before 2013 as well and after that”.
“We were not able to reach our Limit of Patrolling… we used to go and access some of the patrolling points… there were selective patrolling points till where we had tracks”. But after 2013, China “built tracks, they had better connectivity, so they were blocking our movement”.
“Depsang has been added to the friction areas so that it gets resolved. As of April 2020, the status quo has not changed in Depsang. It is an old issue, but we added that. Initially, it was not even being discussed. Around the fourth-fifth round (of talks), we thought let’s get this resolved as well. We felt Depsang could be the next flashpoint. That was our assessment. Why not get that resolved as well,” the source said.
Even during the height of the standoff last year, the Chinese, the source said, were “not organised” for combat except in the Pangong Tso region where there was “some deployment” on the north bank and in the Kailash range and “with their strength, they were actually trying to intimidate”.
India had told its Army formations on the ground that the FOL (Fuel, Oil and Lubricant) dumps “all along the Shyok Valley roads, they have to be dug down” and other infrastructure built, “so if tomorrow any firing starts, you can’t be caught in the open”.
According to the source, there was talk initially that one reason why China diverted its forces to the LAC in the region last year was India’s building of its infrastructure with the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldie (DSDBO) road.
This, the source said, was even discussed at the level of the China Study Group, the apex body for China-related decisions, where talks considered multiple geopolitical factors.
Yet China, the source said, never raised the road issue during the military talks.
“It was a planned move, and was not done at the local level, unlike previous incidents. They had come in at multiple locations. It was a well-planned operation and was different,” the source said.
On the much-debated intelligence failure in the run-up to the Chinese transgressions, the source maintained “there was no intelligence failure”.
Early last year, the Army, the source said, concluded that the number of transgressions in the preceding months had been much more all along Sikkim and eastern Ladakh. It also made note of China’s actions in the South China Sea.
Around March 2020, the source said, “there was a paper by the Military Intelligence… forecasting that the activity level of the Chinese along the LAC is likely to remain as per the trend line”. But it was revised, the source said, as the “events elsewhere did not support this conclusion” and it mentioned that “we have to be prepared for an adverse situation which can be created by the Chinese along the LAC and the formations have to be sensitised”.
In “early April” 2020, the Directorate General of Military Intelligence and the Directorate General of Military Operations issued advisories to all commands along the northern border.
Every year, the source said, the Chinese go to the Tibetan plateau for summer military training, and “these training areas are all along the Western Highway” which is around 150-200 km from the LAC at its closest.
From the Western Highway, there are axial roads to the LAC. “We had picked up movement right up to the Western Highway,” the source said, and “blobs” of Chinese positions were visible — other countries, including the US, had also shared images.
For the Chinese troops “to move up to the LAC or the launchpads is a matter of less than 24 hours in some cases, or 36 hours” and “that is precisely what happened at that point in time,” the source said.

“We were monitoring… where their formations are sitting… After that, they came forward. Now that is at the strategic level, their intent, that they wanted to do this, that was a gap.” Had India known “that they are going to do this, then obviously we would have also mobilised earlier,” the source said, pointing out that mobilisation along the highway was the same as previous years.

“If somebody is coming across and you see a build-up,” the source said, “the reserve formations should have moved”. The gap in being prepared for such action, the source said, was at the lower level.