@Ashwin - can you please step in. This forum is now becoming like the other forum where everything is religion or ideological
Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates
- Thread starter Shashank
- Start date
This is being played up big in China. I think we're in for something big in a month or 2. Their withdrawal may well be that age old tactic that nomadic horsemen used to adopt in a battle when confronted with superior odds. Lauch a feint of retreat, lure in the pursuing enemy into an ambush & then slaughter them.
@Maler
In spite of being patient and cleaning this thread, it looks like you do not possess the ability to maintain decorum. Congrats on being the first person to be banned by me.
Calm down, take a break and come back when you can hold a civil discussion.
In spite of being patient and cleaning this thread, it looks like you do not possess the ability to maintain decorum. Congrats on being the first person to be banned by me.
Calm down, take a break and come back when you can hold a civil discussion.
More than the Mongol Tughlama this is rallying public opinion behind the state. China is playing victim before its population and reinforcing its message that it lost far less men than India.
Left unsaid was the question why now? China is a police state where dissemination of information is strictly controlled. They could very well have gone about their business without mentioning this.
After all in the immediate aftermath of the Galwan clashes there were rumours & discussions of Chinese casualties where a couple of cases highlighted in the international media originally stemmed from these discussions on online forums.
China ruthlessly stamped out all such discussions & suddenly the trail went cold. Why rake it up after all this while?
T
To legitimize the invasion nothing else. They successfully legitimized 1962 it's a repeat nothing else..
They're a police state. They don't need to legitimize anything to their people. This act is purely undertaken with a view to rouse nationalist sentiments & mobilise them.Had it been undertaken during the crisis it'd been a signal that they would escalate it. Since it's done now where we've disengaged only in 1 sector ,I'm afraid it's a signal that they're gearing up for something big.
Because the internet is a bitch and people have mediums to talk and share ideas at a scale never seen before. Because the last time they ignored young influencers it generated a lot of negative noise and bad memories *Cough* Tiananmen *Cough*. China is now obsessed with image management to avoid public opinion turning against the ruling setup - an infectious disease creeping in here as well.
A war with India will cause casualties. People who lose loved ones ask tough questions without fear of reprisals. Its important to remind people why India is bad.
LAC disengagement done. India, China can now return to old love-hate routine
A month later, it seems that the much-acclaimed first step of disengagement at LAC was only a stand-alone agreement to enable both China and India to claim victory.
theprint.in
Lt Gen Panag & his theories. @Jaymax
Political ideologies aside his commentary is fairly stable since day 1. If you see the final part where he predicts India will swallow some loss to preserve the peace, its in line with what the govt. is doing. Giving up on our positions which threatened the Chinese also suggests that GOI too is looking to make a few concessions and close this chapter.LAC disengagement done. India, China can now return to old love-hate routine
A month later, it seems that the much-acclaimed first step of disengagement at LAC was only a stand-alone agreement to enable both China and India to claim victory.
Lt Gen Panag & his theories. @Jaymax
Plain and simple, two outcomes are clear. China is finding that its strategy of bullying India into ceding small bits and pieces is now offering diminishing returns. India is finding that political posturing aside, taking PoK is a difficult task, forget about Aksai Chin.
Quoting the article
China cannot militarily make India capitulate short of war, which, with uncertain outcomes, is best avoidable. The lesson for India is that it cannot be caught napping on the LAC to facilitate Chinese coercion while it bides its time to narrow the gap in comprehensive national power, particularly in respect to economic and military components. This implies permanently manning the LAC by deploying additional troops.
The Indian Govt. is now falling back to the old position of offering to make the LoC as IB on the west to secure peace with Pakistan. What is different now is that we are now maintaining a better presence on the east while building capability.
My guess is if the peace process holds, India will forego all military options to take back PoK atleast till 2025 and focus its energies on China.
Panag has hardly been consistent. The only consistency he's displayed is to undermine the GoI's position for reasons he knows best. A few days in to the ceasefire he declared that China had already achieved it's 1959 claim line which is why they agreed to a disengagement which would proceed in due course to cover all sectors in Ladakh followed by demarcation of the LoC on the ground.
Now he's singing a different tune.
Which brings one to the question posed since the day the crisis began - why exactly did China precipitate what it did. All this would've been wargamed in any case with respect to the outcome once the Chinese didn't press home their advantage. Unless we know the precise reason we'd be left quibbling about a few kms gained here & lost there.
Frankly, leaving aside the tall talk given by Amit Shah in the parliament, I don't think anybody here or in the nation gave much credence to India retaking Aksai Chin. PoJ&K is another matter altogether though with the kind of procurements, the budget & general condition of our armed forces, how exactly are we prepared to take over PoJ&K too ?
Early days yet to make an assessment with respect to conversion of the LoC into IB. Paxtan has just brought out a new map depicting Kashmir as it's territory & Ladakh as no man's land. Why're we jumping to conclusions here?
It's not going to hold. Neither on the West nor in the east. This is just the lull before the storm. When exactly would the storm come, I can't say, but come it will.
It was a probe. Militarily and Politically. They always knew they could hold their own in hand to hand. Our mountain infantry is better in terms of training and capabilities. They are using this as a dress rehearsal to see what works, what does not. Politically too, they have a firm handle on how the Indian playbook unfolds.
Amit Shah is the Home Minister of India. We can dismiss things as jumlas or theatrics but outsiders with limited understanding of the cultural nuances can be misled. His statement played its part in triggering the crisis.
PoK is now even farther since Pakistanis involved Chinks via CPEC. This recent crisis made us seriously pause and consider the two front war as a real possibility happening in the short term and found ourselves seriously underprepared vis a vis China. I expect our capability building to go on quietly behind the scenes. By 2025, our ability to sustain a two front war will have improved dramatically.
China is averse to losing face. Losing a $60 Billion plus investment because India closed the land route is not acceptable to the Chinks. I have said this before and will repeat it now. PoK is a no go without an understanding with China. At a minimum they will need guarantees towards their route to Gwadar. Worst case is they'll ask India to join OBOR.
India can chose to negotiate with the Chinks or take its chances in a conflict and the prevailing conditions will have a large influence on the way things pan out but the way things stand I'd put my money on India cutting a deal with China.
These are the most likely terms. Pakistani maps - you can put pakoras on them with chutney and that would increase their value by a factor of 10.
If you gave them a billion dollars tomorrow Im the Dim will personally release a map that shows the capital of Porkland as Anonymousabad.
This time its in the interest of Pak army that it holds. Their spanking at the LoC was terrible for morale. Their fuel situation is worse than the RCB's IPL record. Their equipment replacement plans are crying for funds that don't exist. A peace deal now lets them walk away with dignity. If they don't take it we both know what's in store for them.
With China a clash is inevitable. We cannot avoid it indefinitely.
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It could well be that but it seems uncharacteristic of the Chinese to leave a warning before executing what they've always threatened to do. It goes against the very grain of our & the world's knowledge thru experience of the CCP's tactics & strategy.
1962 is what comes to ones mind first up - the sudden ness of it's prosecution & the ruthless intensity with which they did it.
I'm afraid I don't agree with you there. We're still in the dark as to their actual motivations. All said & done it could well have been a massive miscalculation on their part which our government & armed forces would be aware of but they aren't letting that knowledge seep into the public domain. Once again this is pure speculation on my part.
This isn't merely about taking statements at face value. A lot of other factors go into consideration before making the kind of decision that the CCP did last summer. OTOH, there were massive infrastructure upgrades being made on both sides, may I add thus foreclosing whatever advantage the Chinese may have held in due course of time . OTOH the Indian defense budget has not even seen cursory growth to match the belligerence in the Home Minister's speech.
That the Indian armed forces were good enough to hold their own was a given. Even the Chinese acknowledged it. What Amit Shah's speech suggested was offensive operations to be undertaken in the future to retake Aksai Chin. I'm afraid that no such conclusion can be drawn of such plans from the evidence posted above or others that we may not be privy to but the governments of the day are.
I doubt the GoI ever had any intentions of retaking PoK to begin with. I'd once again draw your attention to our procurements, the budget & the general state of our armed forces.
It's one thing to posture in public & quite another to put your money where your mouth is. I see all thar talk of retaking PoJ&K as merely putting the Paxtanis on the defensive. Everytime they say they're open to talks on Kashmir, since August 2019 , we can turn around & ask them when exactly are they vacating PoJ&K.
We simply lack the wherewithal whether in terms of equipment, strategy, armed forces doctrine, political mindset, finances, favorable external situation , etc to prosecute our claims there.
Furthermore even before the CPEC there was speculation that the Chinese may not be a bystander if we were to undertake such a venture. Post CPEC, the imperatives for such a Chinese intervention remain even higher but by no means a certainty.
All the same ,our armed forces & the government of the day would treat it as a 2 front narrative & prepare accordingly. The question then to be posed is, infrastructure development apart, does it seem like we're actually preparing for a 2 front war in the way we have gone about equipping our armed forces or augmenting our war fighting doctrines or even raising the Mountain Corps to undertake offensive operations in Tibet ( of which it's now speculated we need 3 only for our northern neighbor & we haven't even completed the raising of a single corps which itself was truncated to begin with). So much for our 2 front narrative & concomitant preparations.
Seems mutually contradictory. Pls re read what you've written once again & compare it to the latest Chinese actions on the ground. If one keeps threatening ones enemies time & again without backing it up with kinetic action one loses ones reputation faster. How does that fit into the standard narrative of China is afraid of losing face?
What possible agreement could we reach with China regarding retaking of PoJ&K where our mutual objectives are contrary to each other? Has always been so in the past & will continue to be so in the future. We striking a bargain with China on such a vital issue opens up the road to permanent reconciliation of all our mutually antagonistic positions. Do you honestly see that happening given today's circumstances?
As of now everyone is in wait & watch mode. The world economy & the economy of individual nations bring what they are particularly in our neighborhood, nobody has any appetite for adventurism.
Frankly, aside from tactical agreements of extremely limited utility & for a limited time span, I see both India & China as fundamentally opposed to each other.Last summer was the final confirmation for any doubting Thomases left.
I'd throw what you wrote about Amit Shah earlier on back at you with the caveat of a millennium old civilizational fault lines which in the 20th century has manifested itself in the form of 2 mutually antagonistic nation States of India & Paxtan. Banias aren't ghazis or even wannabe ghazis & vice versa. The best part is both parties know this. This wasn't the case earlier on our side.
This has to be seen for what it is. A temporary lull. Any speculations on the basis of what we know today would be premature.
Agreed.
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Maritime, air defence theatre commands to be announced by June 2021
The Indian military is finally shedding its imperial past, paving a way for tri-services theatre commands.
With all the aggressive attitude of a Sikh Regiment soldier, Lt Gen Menon has asked his troops to patrol up to designated points on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and be prepared for the worst-case scenario.
The same mood prevails all along the LAC.
_________________________________________
Depsang plains can see a Clash in May if Indian Army decides to push ahead in all its earlier patrolling points
No one is or should be beyond scrutiny or criticism in India. We are a platform to discuss defence, support our institutions but it doesn't mean we will give them closed eyes and ears to their shortcomings.
I myself is a critic to many policies of armed forces but I feel no urge to bad mouth. If you are disgusted and feel like venting out, take a break, do not post for sometime, come back and express yourself in a dignified manner.
I am sad to see you banned, hope to talk to you later.
Can anyone clear which is correct fingers designation? Can't believe after almost a year, we are rolling with 2 maps.
General area
Pangong Tso
www.google.com
Raj Map
Map 1
Map 2
If Map 1 is correct then PLA had permanent base between F6-F7 even before conflict.
Map 2 is correct.
The main goal is to buy time. We failed at modernising for many years, but we are doing it now. But what's more important is the construction of border infrastructure.
According to the Chinese Warzone Campaign, they planned to take away our territories in three phases. One is the domination cum deterrence phase, where they would build infrastructure and position troops. The second phase is the gaining initiative by striking first, basically what they did recently. So the main mantra is to take the enemy by surprise. The third phase would be quick battle quick resolution, where they would move in with a large force and occupy territory. And these details were released publicly to the aam janta nearly 10 years ago.
In order to prevent war, we needed to counter the first two phases of the WZC, and this required infrastructure. Since 2014, the govt has built enough infrastructure in most of the critical areas needed. So the potential for war through the WZC has become very small, to the point of not possible. What's critical to this is building more and more infra, the more we do this, the lesser the chance of the Chinese taking India by surprise, hence the lesser the chance of the Chinese applying the WZC.
The above is the principle reason why China attempted this circus in order to dissuade India from building more infra at the border, and also roll back the infra already built. I mean, if what you have worked on for 20+ years is suddenly rendered useless in just 3 years of infra construction, then you are naturally going to be very, very pissed off.
So the more we buy time, the greater is our posture for deterrence, and the greater the potential to avoid war. China is going to have to find a new way to go to war with India now.
India Has Tripled Spending On Roads Along China Border In Past Four Years; Construction Faster Than Before
India is not only spending more on roads along the China border than a few years ago, but also building them faster than it was a few years back.
swarajyamag.com
The current goal is to match Chinese border infrastructure by early 2025.
Apart from improving border infrastructure, we also need to improve regional connectivity, especially to Myanmar and Thailand, at war footing. 'Cause what's stopping China from doing a Belgium on India? We can't do anything on our west, but we can in the east. We also need to effectively connect the NE to the rest of India from at least three routes, one is what already exists through Siliguri, the other through BD and the third through Myanmar.
Since the Chinese failed to attack last year, their best chance of attacking India is practically gone. Six months ago, war looked inevitable. But now, war is somewhat likely to very unlikely unless the Chinese change everything from the perspective of doctrine. If the Chinese do not do anything this year, then we will have successfully dissuaded China from trying any new large scale circus act for many years. Replacing the WZC is going to take them a very, very long time.
One more aspect to add this is that PLA used mechanised forces to move in rapidly which relied on good infra on their side. But IA also moved in very rapidly and on 29-30 Aug, gained massive tactical advantage over the PLA mechanised forces thru its Mountain strike force elements who not only dominated PLA forces but rendered their positions undefensible. Next time PLA will have to rely more on regular Mountain infantry to fight in these areas than the Mech forces.The main goal is to buy time. We failed at modernising for many years, but we are doing it now. But what's more important is the construction of border infrastructure.
According to the Chinese Warzone Campaign, they planned to take away our territories in three phases. One is the domination cum deterrence phase, where they would build infrastructure and position troops. The second phase is the gaining initiative by striking first, basically what they did recently. So the main mantra is to take the enemy by surprise. The third phase would be quick battle quick resolution, where they would move in with a large force and occupy territory. And these details were released publicly to the aam janta nearly 10 years ago.
In order to prevent war, we needed to counter the first two phases of the WZC, and this required infrastructure. Since 2014, the govt has built enough infrastructure in most of the critical areas needed. So the potential for war through the WZC has become very small, to the point of not possible. What's critical to this is building more and more infra, the more we do this, the lesser the chance of the Chinese taking India by surprise, hence the lesser the chance of the Chinese applying the WZC.
The above is the principle reason why China attempted this circus in order to dissuade India from building more infra at the border, and also roll back the infra already built. I mean, if what you have worked on for 20+ years is suddenly rendered useless in just 3 years of infra construction, then you are naturally going to be very, very pissed off.
So the more we buy time, the greater is our posture for deterrence, and the greater the potential to avoid war. China is going to have to find a new way to go to war with India now.
India Has Tripled Spending On Roads Along China Border In Past Four Years; Construction Faster Than Before
India is not only spending more on roads along the China border than a few years ago, but also building them faster than it was a few years back.swarajyamag.com
The current goal is to match Chinese border infrastructure by early 2025.
Apart from improving border infrastructure, we also need to improve regional connectivity, especially to Myanmar and Thailand, at war footing. 'Cause what's stopping China from doing a Belgium on India? We can't do anything on our west, but we can in the east. We also need to effectively connect the NE to the rest of India from at least three routes, one is what already exists through Siliguri, the other through BD and the third through Myanmar.
Since the Chinese failed to attack last year, their best chance of attacking India is practically gone. Six months ago, war looked inevitable. But now, war is somewhat likely to very unlikely unless the Chinese change everything from the perspective of doctrine. If the Chinese do not do anything this year, then we will have successfully dissuaded China from trying any new large scale circus act for many years. Replacing the WZC is going to take them a very, very long time.