LOC Flare up: Related news and Discussions

Pakistanis are NOT interested in a Nuclear war

The only thing that they dont want is a Complete Humiliation like 1971

But there is a lot of space for a limited war

I believe We are still waiting for S 400

Israel uses ground penetrating radar to find tunnels , probably we can get help from them. They also flooded several tunnels in gaza making it unusable.

GPR are hand held device, you need to do manual survey along the loc& IB. Highly labor intensive job.
 
I have spoken to them. In fact, you need to get the right information from talking to people. The thing is Pak wouldn't invest on missiles if they didn't think they would work. By hook or crook, they have developed a basic SRBM and MRBM capability that can do the job it's meant to do.



That's not war, those are just small skirmishes. War implies movement of ground troops across the border to secure objectives in enemy territory. Attacking a target from the air is not war.

Also, when we talk about punitive strikes, the idea is to put pressure on Pakistan to attack us, and our gameplan is to thwart such an attack and make them fail so that they come under pressure from their own people, civilians, terrorist groups and from within the PA itself. It's about forcing them to commit to making one mistake after another and push themselves into a corner.

So we will attack terrorists, they will retaliate similarly as they did after Balakot, then we thwart that attack and then respond to that attack... and so on. The idea is to force Pakistan to escalate. But if they have sense, they won't escalate, they will quietly get hit and we can keep hitting them perpetually, which will in turn destroy their morale. Basically, as long as we keep the pressure up, they have no way to win. This is not war.

Well when you say this is not war, it is under the assumption that on being hit by Indian multiple times Pak will not mobilize it's ground forces. Also, it is also likely that India is not able to stop Pak from hitting us and things escalate and we mobilize our ground forces. It's all IFs and BUTs once the shooting starts. There is no way in hell to predict how it will go. The only way to do that is - if we are the aggressor and we move in with conviction to get the job done this time. Then from get go there will be zero confusion - we know it is war. If we do what you suggested, it will be another circus like Balakote and Pak will be able to hide most of its loss/failure by claiming fictitious events.
 
Well when you say this is not war, it is under the assumption that on being hit by Indian multiple times Pak will not mobilize it's ground forces. Also, it is also likely that India is not able to stop Pak from hitting us and things escalate and we mobilize our ground forces. It's all IFs and BUTs once the shooting starts. There is no way in hell to predict how it will go. The only way to do that is - if we are the aggressor and we move in with conviction to get the job done this time. Then from get go there will be zero confusion - we know it is war. If we do what you suggested, it will be another circus like Balakote and Pak will be able to hide most of its loss/failure by claiming fictitious events.

If we go to war, we will have to be the one initiating the main hostilities, the Pakistanis won't. I mean, if our punitive strikes do not get any blowback, then we can keep doing that forever and they won't do a thing about it except increase the frequency of terrorist attacks elsewhere. So it depends on the scale.

For example, if we repeat Balakot, and they fail to retaliate to it, like they failed with Swift Retort, they will try other options, like derailing trains by paying off internal separatists, or launch other major terrorist attacks. Of course, if the international community steps in, they won't be able to do that either, with the exception of funding internal separatists operating elsewhere in our country.

So their actions are quite predictable. We know the full extent of what they can or can't do. Based on that, we do not need to go to war, all we have to do is launch punitive strikes and let time deal with the Pakistanis themselves.

They won't mobilise against India on their own. They can't even afford to mobilise for a war let alone fight a war.
 
So no pok retake. We should use the opportunity to take back the crucial GB at any cost. A limited action will not guarantee that.

It wont be that easy .
An invasion against Pakistan in a conventional way will only cause a costly war of attrition.
Remember they are also our immediate neighbour besides we are simply not that strong to sustain all kind of diplomatic economic odds that caused by such an action.

Our aim must be a limited reaction that triggered by stupid adventurism of the PA.
A sudden high profile strike using fast movers and missiles against PN and PAF .
Then using unconventional ways to capture GB and PoK is possible.
 
I'm not understanding how you will take out these assets as if the Pakistanis won't hide it. Do you want to randomly attack their assets without any objective. Are we gaining anything concrete with it. You destroy their awacs they will loan another from the Chinese. And they can shamelessly hide the loss. The PN will go to some neighbouring country coast to hide away from IN ships.
I honestly see no way apart from aggressive salami slicing with open denial by the IA. And funding insurgencies at the same time and practice diplomatic isolation into a North Korea like state. We need to seperate the Pakistanis from the West first. Then from the Muslim ummah which is much harder. The U.S and France have already started to ditch them. U.K and Germany are the two to exploit. U.K will be much harder since they are under a lot of Pakistani influence.
The gulf states are starting to ditch the Pakistanis and We should focus on making a case for the GCC to make the Pakistani state a pariah. Iran,Pakistani, Turkey,Qatar will be the bloc we will have to handle. The smaller our share of enemies the better. At the same time we have too keep the Russians away from selling Pakistan any thing even if it means buying whatever junk they are going to sell.
We really need to buy U.K's loyalty since it's where the Pakistani royalty actually lives..

Punitive strikes will work in Pak cases.
Our poweful influence in all around the globe is disturbs Pakistan . 71 war did irrepairable damage to the psyche ,like @Milspec said kind a PTSD .Further effort to balance that loss only caused blow back to them
Even Balakot strikes they knows the shit happened even all the worlds knows it when they delayed to arrange a visit to attacked areas .
But still they have support from West now especially from US also.
So they must be the aggressor and escalation ladder like after Balakot must happened and then if they are really succesful in attacking in at least one of our building .
Then we can target their PN and PAF assets and installations .
Using Brahmos and other weapons it might take only few hrs.
But for them it will be a moral down and heavy psychological set back .
Then our intelligence can do the rest.
 
Punitive strikes will work in Pak cases.
Our poweful influence in all around the globe is disturbs Pakistan . 71 war did irrepairable damage to the psyche ,like @Milspec said kind a PTSD .Further effort to balance that loss only caused blow back to them
Even Balakot strikes they knows the shit happened even all the worlds knows it when they delayed to arrange a visit to attacked areas .
But still they have support from West now especially from US also.
So they must be the aggressor and escalation ladder like after Balakot must happened and then if they are really succesful in attacking in at least one of our building .
Then we can target their PN and PAF assets and installations .
Using Brahmos and other weapons it might take only few hrs.
But for them it will be a moral down and heavy psychological set back .
Then our intelligence can do the rest.
They won't work. Until you do it openly and blatantly. There's no point of doing a strikes on pak assets without having any concrete objectives. It will go like the Sri Lankan civil war and operation Parakram. We will lose men nothing else. They will replace both their men and equipment with the help from the Chinese. And the dgispr propaganda machine will handle their awam. While Ndtv and the chamcha media will handle the rest of the aam janata here. They easily hide daily damage in Neelam valley. What makes you think they won't be able to hide their equipment loss after a random attack by the IA,IAF.
There are only two options:
Start salami slicing PoK and GB. They can't hide salami slicing for too long. There will be a skirmish against them then we can make a case of taking more of their land. The condition being the we should be ready to fight PA and their jihadis once they are desperate. Their should not be any illusions of giving them a chance to hit us and bs RoE's we gave them on 27th Feb.

The other being we should give IAF more freedom to do strikes inside PoK and it should become regular similar to how IA hits posts. Bombing madrassas and push the PAF into a fight. This doesn't change anything though on the ground apart from blunting their offensives..
 
Punitive strikes will work in Pak cases.
Our poweful influence in all around the globe is disturbs Pakistan . 71 war did irrepairable damage to the psyche ,like @Milspec said kind a PTSD .Further effort to balance that loss only caused blow back to them
Even Balakot strikes they knows the shit happened even all the worlds knows it when they delayed to arrange a visit to attacked areas .
But still they have support from West now especially from US also.
So they must be the aggressor and escalation ladder like after Balakot must happened and then if they are really succesful in attacking in at least one of our building .
Then we can target their PN and PAF assets and installations .
Using Brahmos and other weapons it might take only few hrs.
But for them it will be a moral down and heavy psychological set back .
Then our intelligence can do the rest.
People don't undrstand the strength of a good propaganda department. And with a country like Pakistan which has a far advanced propaganda machine they can turn a loss and turn it into a victory. Those idiots believe that they won in 48,65,71,99.

27 Feb we saw the use of their propaganda machine first hand. Even though basically their two main objectives were a failure.

1.) Shooting down an MKI. They changed the whole story of their own f16 to the mki claim

2.) Bombing our military positions. They changed the narrative to being a message rather than their own failure of hitting any sites.

Mig 21 getting shot down and the Mi 17 fratricide was a facesaver literally for the Pakistanis. If the Mi 17 fratricide hadn't happened it would have been even more embarrassing for the Porkys since they would have caused us no loss apart from some 1960's junk aircraft.
 
If we go to war, we will have to be the one initiating the main hostilities, the Pakistanis won't. I mean, if our punitive strikes do not get any blowback, then we can keep doing that forever and they won't do a thing about it except increase the frequency of terrorist attacks elsewhere. So it depends on the scale.

For example, if we repeat Balakot, and they fail to retaliate to it, like they failed with Swift Retort, they will try other options, like derailing trains by paying off internal separatists, or launch other major terrorist attacks. Of course, if the international community steps in, they won't be able to do that either, with the exception of funding internal separatists operating elsewhere in our country.

So their actions are quite predictable. We know the full extent of what they can or can't do. Based on that, we do not need to go to war, all we have to do is launch punitive strikes and let time deal with the Pakistanis themselves.

They won't mobilise against India on their own. They can't even afford to mobilise for a war let alone fight a war.
What we need to do is constantly keep harassing to put them on high alert but not do any major damage. Then one fine day unleash a deadly strike that can take down most of their strike aircraft.
Problem with one off strikes is that luck or probability becomes a factor. More the number of missions we will decrease that factor to a large extent. Sooner or later we will even up the odds. Only issue is that we should not back off if one or two missions dont go well. Just like israel does we need to be consistently probing them.
 
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What we need to do is constantly keep harassing to put them on high alert but not do any major damage. Then one fine day unleash a deadly strike that can take down most of their strike aircraft.
Problem with one off strikes is that luck or probability becomes a factor. More the number of missions we will decrease that factor to a large extent. Sooner or later we will even up the odds. Only issue is that we should not back off if one or two missions dont go well. Just like israel does we need to be consistently probing them.

Making air strikes the norm is quite unlikely at this time.
 
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Making air strikes the norm is quite unlikely at this time.
problem is either we are afraid of pakistan targeting economic assets like bombay high/ports or India is not able to stand up to international pressure specially from US. On the other hand pakistan is not backing off from pushing terrorists, it only makes us look stupid by giving away our legitimate right to hit back. This lack of bold action makes us look suspect and constantly waiting for US nod makes us look like a second rate power. Damn even pakistan doesnt back off from supporting taliban despite all the sanctions. ppl in power need to take hard decisions. No risk no gain.
 
problem is either we are afraid of pakistan targeting economic assets like bombay high/ports or India is not able to stand up to international pressure specially from US. On the other hand pakistan is not backing off from pushing terrorists, it only makes us look stupid by giving away our legitimate right to hit back. This lack of bold action makes us look suspect and constantly waiting for US nod makes us look like a second rate power. Damn even pakistan doesnt back off from supporting taliban despite all the sanctions. ppl in power need to take hard decisions. No risk no gain.

I had touched upon this subject a little before.

Right now, international support matters a lot to us, and this has nothing to do with external enemies. Our biggest enemies today are internal, and the only way to keep our internal enemies at bay is by delivering economic growth. And in order to deliver economic growth, we need to stay on the good side of other major countries. China did the same for 30 years, which is why they kept quiet even in the face of what they consider repeated humilitation in the hands of the US, SU and EU since the 60s. It's also why their last war was against Vietnam in the 70s, and they stopped taking armed action right after that and concentrate on what was important.

We are frankly a third rate power, not even second rate. And Pakistan is not even that, which is why they get away with a lot of things. Pakistan gives major power what they want in order to achieve their objectives, which is why major powers look the other way when things get rough with India. Nobody cares about a third rate power like India and they definitely do not care much about what a nobody like Pakistan does to a third rate power like India. All we are to richer countries is a large market and a country that holds future potential. Even our economy is third rate, look at our ability to create IP, it's nothing. We can't challenge anybody without the ability to create IP. So whatever notion you have of India is an India some day in the future.

We have this legitimate right to hit back, but there are a lot of countries involved that decide how much of this right we can use. Anything more than that, we get problems on the economic front, and that will in turn strengthen our internal enemies.

A lot of people do not know that diplomacy is one of the most difficult jobs in the world. And it's the hardest for a country like India which wants to retain its own sovereignty while playing the game.
 
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It is not a case of All or Nothing

We can carve out enough space for a limited war , but right now the " tools " are lacking -- ie S 400 , 36 Rafales and More Brahmos Regiments

If Pakistan cannot hide the repeated
Blows it receives from India , that Humiliation Alone is enough for them to make peace with status quo in Kashmir

Last time they had a torrid time in Hiding their failures

But that playbook is now out dated

A Humiliated PAF and Pak.Army will have no option but to change course
 
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