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India-Pakistan among top 15 global conflicts that could worsen in 2018 – US think tank

Thursday, January 11, 2018 By: The Print Source Link: CLICK HERE





U.S. foreign policy experts assess the likelihood and impact of 30 potential crises or conflicts around the world in 2018 in CFR’s annual survey.



The Council on Foreign Relations’ tenth annual Preventive Priorities Survey identified eight top conflict prevention priorities for the United States in the year ahead, highlighting armed confrontations between the United States and North Korea and Iran as serious international concerns.



The survey, conducted by CFR’s Center for Preventive Action (CPA) asked foreign policy experts to rank thirty ongoing or potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating in 2018 and their potential impact on U.S. national interests.





This year, eight conflicts were considered “top tier” risks:



- military conflict involving the United States, North Korea, and its neighbouring countries



- an armed confrontation between Iran and the United States or one of its allies over Iran’s involvement in regional conflicts and support of militant proxy groups, including the Yemeni Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah



- a highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure and networks



- a deliberate or unintended military confrontation between Russia and North Atlantic Treaty Organization members, stemming from assertive Russian behaviour in Eastern Europe



- an armed confrontation over disputed maritime areas in the South China Sea between China and one or more Southeast Asian claimants—Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, or Vietnam



- a mass casualty terrorist attack on the U.S. homeland or a treaty ally by either foreign or homegrown terrorist(s)



- intensified violence in Syria as government forces attempt to regain control over territory, with heightened tensions among external parties to the conflict, including the United States, Russia, and Iran



- increased violence and instability in Afghanistan resulting from the Taliban insurgency and potential government collapse

“With the risk of armed conflict growing in the world, the United States needs to make smart choices about where to focus attention and resources to avert potentially costly military engagements. Our annual Preventive Priorities Survey is designed to help U.S. policymakers do just that,” said Paul B. Stares, General John W. Vessey senior fellow for conflict prevention, CPA director, and author of the new book Preventive Engagement: How America Can Avoid War, Stay Strong, and Keep the Peace.





Many of the contingencies identified in previous surveys remain concerns for 2018. Of the thirty identified this year, twenty-two were considered risks last year. Among the eight new contingencies in this year’s survey are the risks of intensified clashes between Israel and Hezbollah, increased violence and political instability in the Sahel region of Africa, and escalating tensions or extremist violence in the Balkans.



Two contingencies were upgraded to the top tier this year: an armed confrontation between Iran and the United States or one of its allies, and an armed confrontation over disputed maritime areas in the South China Sea between China and one or more Southeast Asian claimants.



The 2018 survey downgraded the priority rankings of two contingencies, compared to last year: the intensification of violence between Turkey and various Kurdish armed groups within Turkey and neighbouring countries, and the probability of greater violence in Libya.



CPA’s Global Conflict Tracker plots ongoing conflicts on an interactive map paired with background information, CFR analysis, and news updates.

http://www.defencenews.in/article/India-Pakistan-among-top-15-global-conflicts-that-could-worsen-in-2018-–-US-think-tank-525720
 
Pakistani Army runs for cover, ISI worried with India's strong response to border firing: Report

New Delhi: A swift and strong response from the Indian Army and the Border Security Force (BSF) to the cross-border firing has forced the Pakistani troops to 'run for cover' and left its notorious Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) worried about the growing casualties of its officers and jawans.

According to the inputs gathered by the intelligence agencies and accessed by the Zee Media, the ISI is finding it extremely difficult to execute its anti-India agenda in the wake of a deadly response from the Indian security forces.

Significantly, heightened border monitoring and aerial surveillance by the Indian security forces has further forced Pakistan's notorious Border Action Team (BAT) to shelve its plan to carry out lethal sniper attacks targeting the Indian troops and border outposts.
This comes in the wake of reports that the Indian Army killed at least 138 Pakistan Army personnel in 2017 in tactical operations and retaliatory cross-border firings along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir.

The ISI top brass recently held a secret meeting in Rawalpindi with the senior Pakistani Army officers and the bosses of several terrorist outfits to chalk out a strategy to counter the Indian response.

It has also come to light that during the meeting, the LeT and other terror outfits expressed grave concerns over the heavy loss suffered by them due to the counter-terror operations launched by the Indian Armed in the Kashmir Valley.

The ISI and the Pakistani Army is also reportedly worried about the scale and ferocity of the Indian response after every attack on its border outpost and troops by the Pakistan Rangers at Line of Control and the International Border.

The ISI has reasons to worry especially after the Indian Army's surgical strikes against suspected militants along the Line of Control in September 2016 during which several terror base camps were completely destroyed.

Given a complete freedom by the Narendra Modi government, the Indian Army and BSF are hitting back at will from every spot the Pakistanis have targeted.

The volume and intensity of India’s return fire is much higher than the usual calibrated response the Pakistanis have come to expect, and that's what the ISI is worried about.

Indian forces are systematically targeting infrastructure and force deployment nodes on the other side.
The damage on the other side is so high that Pakistan, according to an internal report sent to South Block by the Indian mission in Islamabad, is “ducking for cover”.


Moreover, to give a befitting reply to Pakistan, the BSF has recently launched ''Operation Arjun'' and targeting farms and residences of retired Pakistan Army, ISI and Pakistan Rangers officers alongside the Indian border.

The operation is being seen as BSF's strong response to Pakistan's tactic of firing on civilians, shelling villages along the border, and use of snipers to kill jawans.

The BSF's action includes targeting farms and residences of retired Pakistan Army, ISI and Pakistan Rangers officers who have been allotted land near the Indian border so that they can guide infiltration and provide logistical help in anti-India operations, according to a report.
Meanwhile, Army Chief General Bipin Rawat had, on many occasions, too warned that the Indian troops will conduct another surgical strike, whenever the situation warrants.
(With Agency inputs)
 
He is saying only 400 pandits were killed and displaced too were resettled within the state, both are total lie.

You have a habit of losing your temper and contradicting posts, without any evidence or reason. The figure of 400 killed matches figures available in public sources; if you have a different figure, you should quote it, along with the source for that correct figure. Secondly, the vast majority of Pandits were sheltered in camps in Jammu; there too he is right, and you owe him a double apology.

Offensive posts like yours should be banned.


The local organisation of Pandits in Kashmir, Kashmir Pandit Sangharsh Samiti (KPSS) after carrying out a survey in 2008 and 2009, said that 399 Kashmiri Pandits were killed by insurgents from 1990 to 2011 with 75% of them being killed during the first year of the Kashmiri insurgency, and that during the last 20 years, about 650 Pandits have been killed in the valley.[39][40] Kashmiri Pandit Sangharsh Samiti, estimates 357 pandits were killed in Kashmir in 1990....
 
The ISI and the Pakistani Army is also reportedly worried about the scale and ferocity of the Indian response after every attack on its border outpost and troops by the Pakistan Rangers at Line of Control and the International Border.

Spotting of any Pakistani Army men, BAT, Terrorists, Farm houses of PA/ISI within 5 km of the IB/LOC should be proactively be purged by the Indian Army and BSF. IA should not wait for any incident to happen on our side, but chase these ba$tards to their graves in their territory.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: _Anonymous_
Indian Army opened 2018 LOC account with a bang bang. 7 napaakis soldiers and 6 jem terrorists killed. so total 13 for today.
in addition, 4 are critically injured, so soldiers count can go up to 11. it's a really a very Happy Army Day! Har Har Mahadev
 
We have been celebrating martyrdom before creation of Pakistan and for many baradaris/tribes; even before the introduction of Islam into the region. How is that exploitative and deceptive?

For me to live happily, you please go and die. I will call you a martyr in return and celebrate your death for a day. How this is not deceptive and exploitative?
 
I am from Kashmir and what you said is BS.

You maybe from Kohat or Korangi for all I care. Your credentials are BS. Counter posts with facts . Emotional arguments are for PDF. Here you serve them facts cold .

Anyone that is not from Gilgit Baltistan or Kashmir, cannot own any land in any of these territories. Even though my grandparents are from Jammu (they were forced out), we still could not buy any land in Azad Kashmir or Gilgit Baltistan.


Here are a few samples to blow a hole the size of a crater in your "story / theory ". You want more ? Feel free to ask . Don't stand on ceremony or act coy.

Articles

PoK: The Ground Realities | South Asia Defence & Strategic Review

https://www.hrw.org/reports/2006/pakistan0906/3.html

http://www.frontline.in/static/html/fl2111/stories/20040604000406400.html

An enclave on the boil

Pakistan has no need to "change demographics" as the population is already overwhelmingly in favor of Pakistan, any state-sponsored demographic change would lead to unrest in the region.


Already posted s dozen articles above .
There's already unrest there . If your media doesn't get to cover the operation in FATA and verify it on the ground independently , how is anyone to believe they will be able to do so in the PoK including the Northern areas .

Simple test - when was the last time your nation conducted it's census prior to last year ?

We still haven't given half of the refugees that fled IoK during 1990, any citizenship, who number around 35,000-50,000 (not including illegal immigrants or unrecorded refugees), that's how sensitive we are on this topic.

Please cite independent statistics not the BS you've been brought up on which includes ISPR. While I'm not denying there are refugees from J&K there , I'd like to see you come back with relevant statistics.

The only demographic change in the region has been in Indian Occupied Kashmir. Half of the non-Muslim population of J&K are not even natives, they came from Punjab following partition violence. The Dogra regime which occupied Kashmir were also foreigners and slaughtered around 100,000-200,000 Muslims and forced another 200,000-300,000 to flee to make room for these foreigners in Jammu alone. Jammu's status as a Muslim-majority province changed overnight and then you wonder why Kashmiris and people of Gilgit Baltistan revolted against Dogra rule and called on neighboring tribesmen, minority militias and princely states to aid them.

Thanks for updating us with news from partition era . We were truly "shocked & appalled" by the statistics .

No citizenship for West Pak. refugees: J&K govt.

1947-Partition Refugees in J&K still have no citizen rights - Northlines


West Pakistan refugees in J&K move SC challenging Article 35A

While we're still recovering from those brain numbing statistics , let's consider these too -


Missing Hindus and Sikhs of Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir

643 Christopher Snedden, The forgotten Poonch uprising of 1947

From 1990 alone, around 40,000-50,000 civilians have been killed and countless others displaced in IoK; many tens of thousands fleeing into Pakistan.

Yes. There is an ongoing insurgency turned terrorist movement with grave religious implications courtesy your nation , in case you haven't noticed . Should I post news articles on your operations against similar terrorists in FATA , Swat , Karachi or Balochistan where in the "New Medina " also known as Pakistan( where the naPak are to be located and consigned 6 feet below the ground - a task your people have undertaken with rare zeal and relish ,something which we whole heartedly endorse) created of , by & for Muslims of the sub continent , Muslims are busy butchering Muslims indulging in takfiri.
 
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