Mirage 2000H, MiG-29UPG, Jaguar DARIN III - Medium Multirole Aircraft of IAF

[randomradio]

FBW on Jaguar is completely useless. It's an aircraft that has such aerodynamic qualities that there is no need for FBW even in ground following flight.

The FBW drops as much as 20% on the empty weight.

Also, I think we have added so much stuff to the aircraft that it's difficult to manage weight distribution. So instead of using ballast in the read and making the aircraft heavier just so it can fly safely, it's a whole lot easier to simply remove all mechanical FCS and use a digital FBW instead.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

The FBW drops as much as 20% on the empty weight.

Also, I think we have added so much stuff to the aircraft that it's difficult to manage weight distribution. So instead of using ballast in the read and making the aircraft heavier just so it can fly safely, it's a whole lot easier to simply remove all mechanical FCS and use a digital FBW instead.

Normally making the Jaguar heavier is not a good idea... but if you upgrade the engine, add a FBW system and change the weapon system, it's fine, but it's a new plane.

 

[Austerlitz]

200 rafales i dont think we can afford.To be realistic lets get another 18 mki and 21 mig29upg.That will give us 280 sukhoi su30mkis in 14 squadrons and 85 odd mig29upg in 4 squdrons.Plus 3 upgraded mirage 2000 squadrons ,2 rafale f3r squadrons and 2 lca mk1 squadrons.That gives 25 sure squadrons.
We need the 4 squadron(83) order of the lca mk1a asap.And we need a further (2-3 sq) 36-54 rafale f4 ordered before end of this modi term in 2024.
Of the 5 jaguar squadrons numbers will slowly go down without upgrade,maybe 3 squadrons by 2025 and none by 2030.
I think IAF will have to satisfy itself with a force of 30 odd squadrons until 2025 at least.We can expand numbers only when mwf tejas mk2 enters service.Till then focus on sukhoi upgrade,lca mk1a orders and order a 2nd rafale batch.

 

[randomradio]

Normally making the Jaguar heavier is not a good idea... but if you upgrade the engine, add a FBW system and change the weapon system, it's fine, but it's a new plane.

The DARIN III is practically a new plane. Everything's changed.

It has an AESA radar, MAWS, LWS, RWR, towed decoy, new glass cockpit, HOTAS, wide angle HUD, an advanced autopilot, and a whole lot of other stuff. And also a new engine and FBW. HAL may also upgrade the mission computer to IMA architecture, not sure yet though.

It's basically MMRCA-spec. The only thing missing is HMDS, only because it's unnecessary. And also an internal jammer, the airframe cannot handle one for whatever reason.

It is capable of performing SEAD/DEAD and will be able to control loyal wingman UAVs also, whenever that's made. Also, a whole new class of weapons.

The upgrade is bigger than what M2000 and Mig-29 went through.

 

[randomradio]

200 rafales i dont think we can afford.To be realistic lets get another 18 mki and 21 mig29upg.That will give us 280 sukhoi su30mkis in 14 squadrons and 85 odd mig29upg in 4 squdrons.Plus 3 upgraded mirage 2000 squadrons ,2 rafale f3r squadrons and 2 lca mk1 squadrons.That gives 25 sure squadrons.
We need the 4 squadron(83) order of the lca mk1a asap.And we need a further (2-3 sq) 36-54 rafale f4 ordered before end of this modi term in 2024.
Of the 5 jaguar squadrons numbers will slowly go down without upgrade,maybe 3 squadrons by 2025 and none by 2030.
I think IAF will have to satisfy itself with a force of 30 odd squadrons until 2025 at least.We can expand numbers only when mwf tejas mk2 enters service.Till then focus on sukhoi upgrade,lca mk1a orders and order a 2nd rafale batch.

You forgot about MMRCA. It's one of Modi's 4 primary SPM programs. Submarine, fighter jet, AFV/MBT and helicopter. These 4 will be the main thrust areas during Modi's term, and the fighter jet is high on the list.

Also, those 200 Rafales are over 2 decades. By the time the last of the 200 Rafales come in, India will be big enough to be able to buy 200 Rafales every year, like the US is doing with the F-35.

 

[_Anonymous_]

You forgot about MMRCA. It's one of Modi's 4 primary SPM programs. Submarine, fighter jet, AFV/MBT and helicopter. These 4 will be the main thrust areas during Modi's term, and the fighter jet is high on the list.

Also, those 200 Rafales are over 2 decades. By the time the last of the 200 Rafales come in, India will be big enough to be able to buy 200 Rafales every year, like the US is doing with the F-35.

I wouldn't make such a statement even after I empty a full bottle of JD.

I'd have whatever it's you're having.

 

[randomradio]

I wouldn't make such a statement even after I empty a full bottle of JD.

I'd have whatever it's you're having.

It's just facts.

By 2030, we will be able to procure weapons at least half as much as the US does today. By 2040, as much as what they do today.

Let's look at central govt expenditure, which is where the defence budget comes from. This year it is well above $400B. It was a 13% growth from last year. And even if we assume a modest 9% growth rate all the way from now to 2040, which is extremely realistic, the govt's expenditure in 2030 will be $1T, and in 2040 it will be $2.3T.

Assuming the defence budget to have a 15% share of expenditure, we are looking at a defence budget of $345B in 2040. Assuming 25% goes to the IAF, their budget is roughly $86B, and with half going towards capital purchases, that's $43B. Whereas 200 Rafale would cost us $21B. In the US as well, half the air force's capital budget goes towards fighter jets. So what I've made is a very realistic assumption. The Pentagon recently signed a 3-year deal for 478 F-35s for $34B, so the economies of scale has made it cheaper, which means the Rafale will also not cost $21B if we make 200 of them a year. Different story whether we even want such a large defence budget, and naturally we wouldn't want Rafales all the way in 2040.

We ordered 140 MKIs for $3.5B when our defence budget was $10B in 2000. The first time we ordered MKI, we paid $1.5B for 50 when our defence budget was $7B. So it's not going to be anything special when we sign a $15-20B deal for 114 Rafales when our defence budget will be $70B in 2023-24. It's actually underwhelming and disappointing that we are spending so less for a long term project that will only start seeing significant money outlow 3 years after contract signature.

Point being, whatever we start after 2025 is going to be insignificant compared to the size of the defence budget, so people need to stop worrying about money. It's annoying to see people overreacting for ridiculously mundane stuff.

 

[Milspec]

Engine guarantee rests with Honeywell. Airframe and aerodynamics by HAL. Especially the DARIN III which will come with FBW.

Jaguars are not Aerodynamically unstable, FBW is actually not needed for a jaguar.

 

[Milspec]

200 rafales i dont think we can afford.To be realistic lets get another 18 mki and 21 mig29upg.That will give us 280 sukhoi su30mkis in 14 squadrons and 85 odd mig29upg in 4 squdrons.Plus 3 upgraded mirage 2000 squadrons ,2 rafale f3r squadrons and 2 lca mk1 squadrons.That gives 25 sure squadrons.
We need the 4 squadron(83) order of the lca mk1a asap.And we need a further (2-3 sq) 36-54 rafale f4 ordered before end of this modi term in 2024.
Of the 5 jaguar squadrons numbers will slowly go down without upgrade,maybe 3 squadrons by 2025 and none by 2030.
I think IAF will have to satisfy itself with a force of 30 odd squadrons until 2025 at least.We can expand numbers only when mwf tejas mk2 enters service.Till then focus on sukhoi upgrade,lca mk1a orders and order a 2nd rafale batch.

If we can afford incremental 300 odd MKI, then by the same model incremental 200 rafale's is not a big ask.

 

[Milspec]

You forgot about MMRCA. It's one of Modi's 4 primary SPM programs. Submarine, fighter jet, AFV/MBT and helicopter. These 4 will be the main thrust areas during Modi's term, and the fighter jet is high on the list.

Also, those 200 Rafales are over 2 decades. By the time the last of the 200 Rafales come in, India will be big enough to be able to buy 200 Rafales every year, like the US is doing with the F-35.

baba, modi ji ko kehke kuch rifle bhi mangwa do.

 

[randomradio]

Jaguars are not Aerodynamically unstable, FBW is actually not needed for a jaguar.

It's not for aerodynamics, it's for ergonomics. FBW can reduce the weight of the airframe since hydraulics and other mechanical linkages can be removed.

baba, modi ji ko kehke kuch rifle bhi mangwa do.

Wo bhi kuch hi dinon mein aah jayenge.

India signs contract with US firm Sig Sauer for 72,400 assault rifles

 

[Milspec]

It's not for aerodynamics, it's for ergonomics. FBW can reduce the weight of the airframe since hydraulics and other mechanical linkages can be removed.

Depends on redundancy.

Wo bhi kuch hi dinon mein aah jayenge.

India signs contract with US firm Sig Sauer for 72,400 assault rifles

Wait for it to be cancelled.

 

[randomradio]

Depends on redundancy.

I doubt HAL is worried about that. The success of LCA is testament to that.

Wait for it to be cancelled.

Why? It's a GTG with the US no less.

 

[Austerlitz]

You forgot about MMRCA. It's one of Modi's 4 primary SPM programs. Submarine, fighter jet, AFV/MBT and helicopter. These 4 will be the main thrust areas during Modi's term, and the fighter jet is high on the list.

Also, those 200 Rafales are over 2 decades. By the time the last of the 200 Rafales come in, India will be big enough to be able to buy 200 Rafales every year, like the US is doing with the F-35.

If we buy 200 rafales we cant get lca mk1a/mk2 or amca.Sukhois will ve upgraded.Buying 200 rafales is end of our domestic aircraft funding.Wildly optimistic growth estimates being thrown around..huge operating costs of modern fighters being overlooked,as well as inflation and increasing personnel costs in a thriving economy.On top we are staring at reduced growth and middle income trap.

 

[Austerlitz]

What is the average capex available to iaf atm, without prior committments?

 

[_Anonymous_]

It's just facts.

By 2030, we will be able to procure weapons at least half as much as the US does today. By 2040, as much as what they do today.

Let's look at central govt expenditure, which is where the defence budget comes from. This year it is well above $400B. It was a 13% growth from last year. And even if we assume a modest 9% growth rate all the way from now to 2040, which is extremely realistic, the govt's expenditure in 2030 will be $1T, and in 2040 it will be $2.3T.

Assuming the defence budget to have a 15% share of expenditure, we are looking at a defence budget of $345B in 2040. Assuming 25% goes to the IAF, their budget is roughly $86B, and with half going towards capital purchases, that's $43B. Whereas 200 Rafale would cost us $21B. In the US as well, half the air force's capital budget goes towards fighter jets. So what I've made is a very realistic assumption. The Pentagon recently signed a 3-year deal for 478 F-35s for $34B, so the economies of scale has made it cheaper, which means the Rafale will also not cost $21B if we make 200 of them a year. Different story whether we even want such a large defence budget, and naturally we wouldn't want Rafales all the way in 2040.

We ordered 140 MKIs for $3.5B when our defence budget was $10B in 2000. The first time we ordered MKI, we paid $1.5B for 50 when our defence budget was $7B. So it's not going to be anything special when we sign a $15-20B deal for 114 Rafales when our defence budget will be $70B in 2023-24. It's actually underwhelming and disappointing that we are spending so less for a long term project that will only start seeing significant money outlow 3 years after contract signature.

Point being, whatever we start after 2025 is going to be insignificant compared to the size of the defence budget, so people need to stop worrying about money. It's annoying to see people overreacting for ridiculously mundane stuff.

 

[Amit228]

If we buy 200 rafales we cant get lca mk1a/mk2 or amca.Sukhois will ve upgraded.Buying 200 rafales is end of our domestic aircraft funding.Wildly optimistic growth estimates being thrown around..huge operating costs of modern fighters being overlooked,as well as inflation and increasing personnel costs in a thriving economy.On top we are staring at reduced growth and middle income trap.

Don't u think all the required allocations would already been made by IAF nd MOD before venturing into MMRCA2.0, NAVAL MMRCA, Tejas mk2, sukhoi upgrade nd AMCA.. iaf squadrons no is dwindling to an appalling state.. we would be reduced to 19 sqaundrons instead of de riguer 42 squadrons.. IAF as mentioned by Air chief is still flying a 40 yrs old aircraft.. no one drives a car that old...

If for budget wasn't there.. MOD wouldn't have proceeded with MMRCA2.0 in first case.. earlier also MMRCA 1.0 was cancelled not because of shortage funds.. instead there was a dispute between HAL nd DASSAULT about remaining 108 jets to be manufactured in India.. with difference in men hours.. as well as liability hinged.. they could never finalize the price of 108 jets to be manufactured in India by HAL.

IAF has already invested 1.9 billion dollars in rafale BR in form of ISE upgraded rafale.. they wouldn't have invested that much amount for just mere 36 nos.. this does make rafale as prime contender to win MMRCA2.0 being conscious of logistics nd familiarisation factor of rafale with IAF..

MMRCA2.0 is really imperative to indian aerospace industry as well as IAF.. first for aerospace industry to come in realms of modern aircraft technology with newly created strategic partnerships models.. wether it will succeed or not.. will be seen in times to come.. however for IAF this 114 aircraft will serve as a life portion.. with sqaundrons strength mitigating every year as planned retirement approaches.. IAF will want MMRCA2.0 in their Armoury as soon as possible..

I have only one apprehension about MMRCA2.0.. no it is not money.. i believe we can absolutely afford 200+ rafales (36+114+57) in due course of time... However it is the untested STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP model which can go haywire.. with high probably of major roadblocks with multiple issues surfacing... Let's see how it pans out..

 

[Austerlitz]

Don't u think all the required allocations would already been made by IAF nd MOD before venturing into MMRCA2.0, NAVAL MMRCA, Tejas mk2, sukhoi upgrade nd AMCA.. iaf squadrons no is dwindling to an appalling state.. we would be reduced to 19 sqaundrons instead of de riguer 42 squadrons.. IAF as mentioned by Air chief is still flying a 40 yrs old aircraft.. no one drives a car that old...

If for budget wasn't there.. MOD wouldn't have proceeded with MMRCA2.0 in first case.. earlier also MMRCA 1.0 was cancelled not because of shortage funds.. instead there was a dispute between HAL nd DASSAULT about remaining 108 jets to be manufactured in India.. with difference in men hours.. as well as liability hinged.. they could never finalize the price of 108 jets to be manufactured in India by HAL.

IAF has already invested 1.9 billion dollars in rafale BR in form of ISE upgraded rafale.. they wouldn't have invested that much amount for just mere 36 nos.. this does make rafale as prime contender to win MMRCA2.0 being conscious of logistics nd familiarisation factor of rafale with IAF..

MMRCA2.0 is really imperative to indian aerospace industry as well as IAF.. first for aerospace industry to come in realms of modern aircraft technology with newly created strategic partnerships models.. wether it will succeed or not.. will be seen in times to come.. however for IAF this 114 aircraft will serve as a life portion.. with sqaundrons strength mitigating every year as planned retirement approaches.. IAF will want MMRCA2.0 in their Armoury as soon as possible..

I have only one apprehension about MMRCA2.0.. no it is not money.. i believe we can absolutely afford 200+ rafales (36+114+57) in due course of time... However it is the untested STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP model which can go haywire.. with high probably of major roadblocks with multiple issues surfacing... Let's see how it pans out..

No we are not getting reduced to 19 squadrons.Su30mki alone is 14 sq to be.Mig29 with 21 new will be 4 sq,3 mirage2k,2 rafale,2 tejas mk1,4 tejas mk1a.So automatically we get 29 squadrons.Im leaving out 5 squadrons of jaguars which will be phased out over next decade without engines.

So even without mrca 2 we will have 30 plus squadrons.Then tejas mwf and rafale 2nd batch order of 36 more can bolster numbers.
MRCA 2 i agree can be useful for aerospace industry,but only if HAL is kept out of it.Money is the problem.
Immediate priorities should be order 18 sukhoi,21 migs and 83 lca mk1a.
2nd priority begin su30 mki upgrade programme.
After this evaluate if money is still there to go mmrca while still having enough to invest in tejas mk2 mwf.If yes,go both ( unlikely as tejas mk1a will 7 billion and sukhoi upgrade will take billions as well,though sukhoi upgrade is spread out over a decade).If money is not available then go tejas mwf and buy second batch of 36 rafales.Tejas program is more important than mrca 2 fir indian aerospace industry.

 

[Amit228]

No we are not getting reduced to 18 squadrons.Su30mki alone is 14 sq to be.Mig29 with 21 new will be 4 sq,3 mirage2k,2 rafale,2 tejas mk1,4 tejas mk1a.So automatically we get 29 squadrons.Im leaving out 5 squadrons of jaguars which will be phased out over next decade without engines.

So even without mrca 2 we will have 30 plus squadrons.Then tejas mwf and rafale 2nd batch order of 36 more can bolster numbers.

We have to retire 12 squadrons of aircraft by 2024.. i.e 10 squadrons of mig21 nd mig 27.. as well as 2 squadrons of jaguar.. while tejas mk1a comes in as 6 squadrons strength.. with 2 sqaundrons of rafale, sukhoi, nd mig29 ..
However.. one cannot scorn off the need for MMRCA2.0..
it is really imperative for indian aerospace industry with strategic partnerships model planned.. it will be a last ditch for indian aerospace industry to come in realms of western advanced technologies nd support systems.. nd to absorb it completely.. and for IAF as it can get a modern technological advanced fighter aircraft in BIG NUMBERS.. remember nos has it's own quality..
As for tejas mwf.. one need to be conscious of facts it is still in drawing boards.. for IAF it is no brainer.. they will go for an established nd tested rafale first.. then will venture into tejas mwf.. there are high chance tejas mwf will run into various delays nd commas...
For MOD nd iaf mmrca2.0 is paramount.. t can help absorb western technologies thereby channeling it into Tejas mwf nd AMCA.. to create a robust aerospace industry.

 

[Austerlitz]

We have to retire 12 squadrons of aircraft by 2024.. i.e 10 squadrons of mig21 nd mig 27.. as well as 2 squadrons of jaguar.. while tejas mk1a comes in as 6 squadrons strength.. with 2 sqaundrons of rafale, sukhoi, nd mig29 ..
However.. one cannot scorn off the need for MMRCA2.0..
it is really imperative for indian aerospace industry with strategic partnerships model planned.. it will be a last ditch for indian aerospace industry to come in realms of western advanced technologies nd support systems.. nd to absorb it completely.. and for IAF as it can get a modern technological advanced fighter aircraft in BIG NUMBERS.. remember nos has it's own quality..

Where is the money.What you say is true,but what you are asking of the IAF is to run 4 programs parallel.LCA mk1a,sukhoi upgrade,114 rafales as well as developmental funds for tejas mwf and amca,all the while rearming its SAM ground defence system with akash and costly barak 8,and also upgrading airbase infrastructure.
I doubt we have enough funds for all this.Possibly the biggest expenditure- mrca will be cut down to another 36 order.
Other solution is to divert funding from army and navy for a couple of years to gather funds.But i dont think tjose services will play ball.This is the curse of having import in dollars and maintaining a huge standing army with pensions and salaries.
Several reserve mechanized formations of indian army that were designed for 20th century grand battles need to be scrapped.These funds need to be directed towards airforce and the creation of a new rocket forces command under army which would have hundreds of srbms and nirbhay ala pla .Otherwise army is holding down the whole military balance with its huge revenue consumption but lack of standoff capability.