Low level deep penetration is history now. No functional AF in the world employs that in areas without air supremacy.
It entirely depends on the target and the sophistication of the defences protecting the target. For SEAD/DEAD, you need a combination of low level pentration and medium altitude standoff strikes.
So what you're talking about is in the post-SEAD/DEAD environment.
Lastly, what was eventually found through various studies is that aircraft that operated at lower altitudes were the safest compared to those that operated at medium or high altitudes because air defences are primarily located around targets worth attacking, so they are not all over the place hence their lower range at low altitudes creates smaller SAM rings. For example, even a 400Km range S-400 can only do 30-40Km against a target that's only 10m above the ground. The main idea behind low level penetration is to minimise the attack window of ground fire.
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Editor's note: This is the second in a two-part series, "Stuck on Denial," which looks at the U.S. Air Force and its use of stealth technology. Read the
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But at this time, since Jaguars will not be used for SEAD/DEAD in the near future, its low level penetration capabilities are significantly less important than it used to be, as you have stated, but it is still important considering the terrain in Pakistan still has radar gaps, fewer SAMs and vast tracts of unoccupied territory. It's just that now we can integrate standoff weapons even when using low penetration thereby increasing the range of attack, thereby still being able to avoid AAA and IR SAMs in the target area.
Using only tactics, there is only one way to avoid AAA and IR SAMs, that's by staying out of reach. Since air is a three dimensional medium, there are two ways of doing it. One would be to fly above the maximum altitude of these weapons and the second is by staying out of range, which is mainly possible using low level penetration. During the Gulf War, the USAF chose the former, whereas today both medium altitude and low altitude are possible due to the sophistication of PGMs. For example, during the Gulf War, PGMs had very poor range, so they couldn't use the second option. Today, with the AASM and powered-SAAW, we can achieve standoff ranges even at low altitude and still deliver weapons with extremely high precision.
What's happening today is SAMs are gaining the sophistication necessary to defeat even PGMs. So regardless of whether you do an attack from low or medium altitude, the PGMs themselves are now more important. For example, the British are adding electronic attack capability on their SPEAR 3
called the SPEAR-EW. The idea is whether its fired from medium or low, the EA will take it to its target. So the sophistication of the enemy is now the main concern. If the enemy is sophisticated enough to defeat the SPEAR-EW given enough time, ie, when fired from a range of 100Km, thereby giving the defender 7 minutes to react to it, then the only other alternative is to go low, fire the PGM from 15Km away, still outside the range of AAA and IR SAMs, and give the defender only 1 minute to react to it. For Gulf War, the latter option wasn't available. It's no longer the case.
Now, you argue that pilots don't favour low penetration today, that's because they do not yet operate these new fangled sophisticated PGMs. The only aircraft capable of performing at the level required is the Rafale with the Hammer, and to a smaller extent the British with the SPEAR 2/Brimstone 2 on the RAF Typhoon and Tornado, and to the fullest extent with the SPEAR 3. All other aircraft have to use the same option as the USAF did in the Gulf War. But they will change their minds once the new PGMs become the norm. For example, SPEAR 3 is still WIP, as is the powered-SAAW (the Desi SPEAR 3).
The MKI is not suitable for CAS due to its slow response time, inadequate turnaround time and low sortie rate. The job can be/will be handled by the LCA Mk1/A and LCA Mk2 instead, along with the Jaguar. MKI is more suitable for staying in the air for 2-4 hours at a time and acting like a watchdog, apart from acting as a bomb truck in the strike role with its large payload. I suppose the only CAS role the MKI is suitable for is carpet bombing, but the IA is sure to insist precision artillery and precision rocket barrages are faster and better options now.
The MKIs are in enough numbers that it can take over most of the role of the Jaguar, although that won't force the Jaguar to retire. And with the DARIN III upgrade, the Jaguar will be much more survivable in a contested environment until the MKI MLU is complete. The upgrade program is expected to complete in 2024, whereas the MKI MLU will barely have even started by then, so the importance of the Jaguar is greater in the coming decade than the MKI is in the strike role. You can also expect half as many Jaguars of the DARIN II build to get the next level of upgrades in a DARIN III+ program, thereby keeping the Jaguar fleet relevant into the 2030s. Combine that with the 32 second-hand free of cost Jaguars that we can cannibalise to keep the fleet functioning for more than a decade at extremely low cost, the advantages of the Jaguar are already quite a lot.