MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions

[randomradio]

MRFA if signed will clash with MWF timeline.. so can we procure both MRFA nd MWF at the same time..i.e from yr 2026-27?

Of course we can. Right now the IAF has nothing from 2028, literally.

After LCA Mk1A there's only Mk2, which will at best cost only a billion bucks a year out of the IAF's current $6B procurement budget. So that still leaves $5B a year for other things. Obviously this is without considering any growth in the budget at all.

All other major fighter jet purchases will end soon. LCA Mk1A (2028), new Mig-29s/MKIs (2025), and Rafale (2022) are all set to end much before MRFA begins deliveries. Even a potential second batch of 36 Rafales will end before MRFA begins deliveries. AMCA is for only 20 jets this decade.

The question is not whether we can or cannot afford MRFA, the question is whether we can afford either a second batch of 36 Rafales or 40 Su-57s while MRFA is ongoing.

 

[Amit228]

Of course we can. Right now the IAF has nothing from 2028, literally.

After LCA Mk1A there's only Mk2, which will at best cost only a billion bucks a year out of the IAF's current $6B procurement budget. So that still leaves $5B a year for other things. Obviously this is without considering any growth in the budget at all.

All other major fighter jet purchases will end soon. LCA Mk1A (2028), new Mig-29s/MKIs (2025), and Rafale (2022) are all set to end much before MRFA begins deliveries. Even a potential second batch of 36 Rafales will end before MRFA begins deliveries. AMCA is for only 20 jets this decade.

The question is not whether we can or cannot afford MRFA, the question is whether we can afford either a second batch of 36 Rafales or 40 Su-57s while MRFA is ongoing.

There's a much awaited update of super Sukhoi too.. nd that would also eat into IAF's budget.. nd we would be paying for LCA mk1a nd mwf starting from 2024 to all the way into 2030s... Nd than AMCA mk1 which would be need to inducted in 36 nos as stated by iaf chief from 2029-30... Iaf will also buy 6 netra mk2 from 2025..

So... I still doubt we can afford a 20 billion dollars behemoth of an order of MRFA.. nd that too from 2028.. where a new era will dawn on us i.e of fifth generation fighter aircraft nd AI drones..

We too have a project of the same calibre i.e CATS which if put into reality from 2025-26 can act as true force multiplier..

Now the question is why burn down a big hole in our pocket for a 4.5++ gen fighter in 2030s era when we can get 90% of the capabilities (augmented by cats warrior et al) with MWF induction?

And the MRFA if signed will stretch from 2028 to all the way to late 2030 early 2040.. now will it make sense to induct two 4.5++ gen jets (MWF & MRFA) in a 2030 era?

why not put our money in more pressing, critical nd future ready stuffs like our domestic jet engine partnered with a foreign OEM & maybe look to buy an out of the shelf FGFA if Pakistanis gets their hand on J-31 nd with China's J-20 threat looming at large.

so why not order a second batch of rafale & be done with it.. nd then focus entirely on domestic projects like mwf, tedbf, amca, cats program etc.. nd these projects would also need a hell lot of funding .. we could well divert those 20 billion dollars for MRFA to our domestic projects.

 

[randomradio]

There's a much awaited update of super Sukhoi too.. nd that would also eat into IAF's budget.. nd we would be paying for LCA mk1a nd mwf starting from 2024 to all the way into 2030s... Nd than AMCA mk1 which would be need to inducted in 36 nos as stated by iaf chief from 2029-30... Iaf will also buy 6 netra mk2 from 2025..

So... I still doubt we can afford a 20 billion dollars behemoth of an order of MRFA.. nd that too from 2028.. where a new era will dawn on us i.e of fifth generation fighter aircraft nd AI drones..

We too have a project of the same calibre i.e CATS which if put into reality from 2025-26 can act as true force multiplier..

Now the question is why burn down a big hole in our pocket for a 4.5++ gen fighter in 2030s era when we can get 90% of the capabilities (augmented by cats warrior et al) with MWF induction?

And the MRFA if signed will stretch from 2028 to all the way to late 2030 early 2040.. now will it make sense to induct two 4.5++ gen jets (MWF & MRFA) in a 2030 era?

why not put our money in more pressing, critical nd future ready stuffs like our domestic jet engine partnered with a foreign OEM & maybe look to buy an out of the shelf FGFA if Pakistanis gets their hand on J-31 nd with China's J-20 threat looming at large.

You are overestimating the MKI's upgrade costs. Most of it will be done in India, so the costs will be very much in control since it will feed off of our LCA, TEDBF, AMCA etc complexes.

Most of the other programs will be done long before 2028, including the Netra Mk2, Ka-226, LUH, LCH, refuellers etc. Most of the SAMs needed will also be procured by then. AMCA's induction is not expected until 2032, which is when IOC is planned, and you can bet that's gonna be delayed for sure.

CATS isn't anything great. It's gonna take a decade or more with Mk2 and Mk3 versions to be effective enough. It's also a highly untested technology meant for the post 2030 world. It does not threaten MRFA, and even if successful it won't diminish the need for MRFA.

MWF and MRFA are both complementary and necessary. We are not sacrificing one over the other. And MRFA is more important of the two. If the IAF is asked to sacrifice either one, they will sacrifice MWF. Since that's not going to happen and the IAF needs MRFA to actually fight a war, neither will be cancelled.

Domestic R&D will happen through a separate budget under DRDO and does not affect the IAF's procurement budget.

so why not order a second batch of rafale & be done with it.. nd then focus entirely on domestic projects like mwf, tedbf, amca, cats program etc.. nd these projects would also need a hell lot of funding .. we could well divert those 20 billion dollars for MRFA to our domestic projects.

The IAF can't fight PLAAF without a large number of Rafales, regardless of how much money is invested in all the other programs you named.

Anyway, that $20B will be spent over 12 years for 114 jets. So, at $1.7B a year, the per year cost is not a lot. If we assume MWF will cost half that of the Rafales, at $10B, over 10 years, it will cost $1B. So even with the current procurement budget of $6B, the total cost of both MWF and Rafale will only be $2.7B a year. It's affordable even today, never mind 7 years down the line. In fact I don't think the combined expenditure will be even 30% of the IAF's procurement budget by 2028, even with a very heavily underestimated budget of just $9B a year.

 

[Hydra]

Now the question is why burn down a big hole in our pocket for a 4.5++ gen fighter in 2030s era when we can get 90% of the capabilities (augmented by cats warrior et al) with MWF induction?

By 2028, there may be a 6th gen aircraft in market or atleast a prototype of such aircraft. It will be like a Buridan's Donkey paradox, a Donkey died out of hunger & thirsty after placing him equidistant from a hay stack & water, Due to confusion of on which he needs go for fist hay or water.

IAF need a life line now, the mmrca was supposed to sign early 2010s . Its requirement comes after our experience in Kargil war, and we have inducted only two new types since kargil war, the 36 numbers of Rafales & LCA,out of these only Rafale is satisfying the IAF's post kargil war requirements . We need this in numbers.

 

[LX1111]

You are overestimating the MKI's upgrade costs. Most of it will be done in India, so the costs will be very much in control since it will feed off of our LCA, TEDBF, AMCA etc complexes.

Most of the other programs will be done long before 2028, including the Netra Mk2, Ka-226, LUH, LCH, refuellers etc. Most of the SAMs needed will also be procured by then. AMCA's induction is not expected until 2032, which is when IOC is planned, and you can bet that's gonna be delayed for sure.
The Indian Air Force should not only focus on having better fighters than its opponents. The Indian Air Force should purchase air defense missiles, radars, electronic warfare aircraft, and most importantly, have an automated air combat command system
CATS isn't anything great. It's gonna take a decade or more with Mk2 and Mk3 versions to be effective enough. It's also a highly untested technology meant for the post 2030 world. It does not threaten MRFA, and even if successful it won't diminish the need for MRFA.

MWF and MRFA are both complementary and necessary. We are not sacrificing one over the other. And MRFA is more important of the two. If the IAF is asked to sacrifice either one, they will sacrifice MWF. Since that's not going to happen and the IAF needs MRFA to actually fight a war, neither will be cancelled.

Domestic R&D will happen through a separate budget under DRDO and does not affect the IAF's procurement budget.



The IAF can't fight PLAAF without a large number of Rafales, regardless of how much money is invested in all the other programs you named.

Anyway, that $20B will be spent over 12 years for 114 jets. So, at $1.7B a year, the per year cost is not a lot. If we assume MWF will cost half that of the Rafales, at $10B, over 10 years, it will cost $1B. So even with the current procurement budget of $6B, the total cost of both MWF and Rafale will only be $2.7B a year. It's affordable even today, never mind 7 years down the line. In fact I don't think the combined expenditure will be even 30% of the IAF's procurement budget by 2028, even with a very heavily underestimated budget of just $9B a year.

The Indian Air Force should not only focus on having better fighters than its opponents. The Indian Air Force should purchase air defense missiles, radars, electronic warfare aircraft, and most importantly, have an automated air combat command system

 

[Amit228]

By 2028, there may be a 6th gen aircraft in market or atleast a prototype of such aircraft. It will be like a Buridan's Donkey paradox, a Donkey died out of hunger & thirsty after placing him equidistant from a hay stack & water, Due to confusion of on which he needs go for fist hay or water.

IAF need a life line now, the mmrca was supposed to sign early 2010s . Its requirement comes after our experience in Kargil war, and we have inducted only two new types since kargil war, the 36 numbers of Rafales & LCA,out of these only Rafale is satisfying the IAF's post kargil war requirements . We need this in numbers.

Exactly... There's no sense procuring two seperate 4.5++ jets ( read mwf & MRFA) post 2025 considering future.. with the pace the technology is racing .. it may very well be obsolete by the time it completes production cycle

You are overestimating the MKI's upgrade costs

I am not overestimating nd even if i may so..than obviously it's due to nos. Remember it's the most numerous fighter type in IAF.. we have 272 of them upgrading all of it to latest standard nd tech (read AESA gan or gaa, aesa jammer etc) will not be cheap.. it may very well go beyond 5 billion dollars.. & that's a rough estimate.

CATS isn't anything great. It's gonna take a decade or more with Mk2 and Mk3 versions to be effective enough. It's also a highly untested technology meant for the post 2030 world. It does not threaten MRFA, and even if successful it won't diminish the need for MRFA.

Lol CATS isn't anything great? Really? It maybe or may not be great but it's a step in right direction i.e into future & no there's no mk2 or mk3 planned for cats warrior ... that's why Hal & Newspace are developing cats warrior IAF version with PTA7E engine.. for a 8-9 meter bird..nd not for a 11-12 meter bird with to be developed HTFE engine.. why? Because we already hv pta7e nd it will be built around a proven engine. Also the specs are not that outlandish that hal nd newspace won't be able to deliver.. & to update Newspace has recently begun testing of alpha S swarm drones

Watch this interview of HVT done with DDR to get a clear idea of CATS program.. yes timeline maybe ambitious but even if it gets delayed by 2-3 yrs still will be a disruptive force multiplier..

The IAF can't fight PLAAF without a large number of Rafales, regardless of how much money is invested in all the other programs you named.

Yeah i get ur fixation with rafale.. it's a wonderful platform & will do IAF a world of good..

However if rafale is procured through MRFA tender.. & by the time whole no are build it may well be 2040.. so do u really envisage a 2025-28 specs rafale4.2 to be world beater in era of 2040 which would be dominated by disruptive techs like ai enabled loyal wingman drones & 5.5 & 6th gen platforms?

Do u really think China will stop with J20 & won't transcend into ai tech nd 6th gen tech post 2040? With the pace China's technology is growing they are destined to beat US in this game of disruptive war fighting tech.

So, the competition of rafale is not j20 it is the future tech which will lead into a 2040 era..

By the end of 2030 nd 2040 we may well be seating on the same desk that we are warming now with su-30s.. which were excellent when we procured them in early 2k with their bars radar... But now with the pace technology has changed they are very well outdated .. heck! We are still procuring an early 2k era outdated tech su30s in 2021...

Where's the planning?


So whatever procurement is done it should be done with proper planning nd keeping future into consideration..

That's why CODS Bipin Rawat was very right in his assessment that we need to order aircrafts in batches so that we can keep the pace with technology... There's no point committing to a large order when it's last lot could stretch to more than a decade a la an early 2k specs su-30 manufactured in 2021.

 

[Hydra]

Exactly... There's no sense procuring two seperate 4.5++ jets ( read mwf & MRFA) post 2025 considering future.. with the pace the technology is racing .. it may very well be obsolete by the time it completes production cycle



I am not overestimating nd even if i may so..than obviously it's due to nos. Remember it's the most numerous fighter type in IAF.. we have 272 of them upgrading all of it to latest standard nd tech (read AESA gan or gaa, aesa jammer etc) will not be cheap.. it may very well go beyond 5 billion dollars.. & that's a rough estimate.



Lol CATS isn't anything great? Really? It maybe or may not be great but it's a step in right direction i.e into future & no there's no mk2 or mk3 planned for cats warrior ... that's why Hal & Newspace are developing cats warrior IAF version with PTA7E engine.. for a 8-9 meter bird..nd not for a 11-12 meter bird with to be developed HTFE engine.. why? Because we already hv pta7e nd it will be built around a proven engine. Also the specs are not that outlandish that hal nd newspace won't be able to deliver.. & to update Newspace has recently begun testing of alpha S swarm drones

Watch this interview of HVT done with DDR to get a clear idea of CATS program.. yes timeline maybe ambitious but even if it gets delayed by 2-3 yrs still will be a disruptive force multiplier..

Yeah i get ur fixation with rafale.. it's a wonderful platform & will do IAF a world of good..

However if rafale is procured through MRFA tender.. & by the time whole no are build it may well be 2040.. so do u really envisage a 2025-28 specs rafale4.2 to be world beater in era of 2040 which would be dominated by disruptive techs like ai enabled loyal wingman drones & 5.5 & 6th gen platforms?

Do u really think China will stop with J20 & won't transcend into ai tech nd 6th gen tech post 2040? With the pace China's technology is growing they are destined to beat US in this game of disruptive war fighting tech.

So, the competition of rafale is not j20 it is the future tech which will lead into a 2040 era..

By the end of 2030 nd 2040 we may well be seating on the same desk that we are warming now with su-30s.. which were excellent when we procured them in early 2k with their bars radar... But now with the pace technology has changed they are very well outdated .. heck! We are still procuring an early 2k era outdated tech su30s in 2021...

Where's the planning?


So whatever procurement is done it should be done with proper planning nd keeping future into consideration..

That's why CODS Bipin Rawat was very right in his assessment that we need to order aircrafts in batches so that we can keep the pace with technology... There's no point committing to a large order when it's last lot could stretch to more than a decade a la an early 2k specs su-30 manufactured in 2021.

Yeas , both can co exist simultaneously. LCA mk1/1a is a successor to MiG-21 & Mk2 is something extra. Where Rafale & probable mmrca2 winner is for doing the job what Mirage,mig29,mig27 had struggled to do some 22 years back in 1999. IAF didn't even use Jaguars & Su30 in that war .

 

[Bon Plan]

I guess that this is a confirmation (at least from you) that IAF never took down an F-16 on 27 Feb 2019, unless you play coy now...

I didn't remember 27 feb 2019. My bad !

 

[Amit228]

Yeas , both can co exist simultaneously. LCA mk1/1a is a successor to MiG-21 & Mk2 is something extra. Where Rafale & probable mmrca2 winner is for doing the job what Mirage,mig29,mig27 had struggled to do some 22 years back in 1999. IAF didn't even use Jaguars & Su30 in that war .

MWF very wells fall under medium weight category and will do all the dirty work that will fall under rafale's domain...

& As i hv said with the pace the technology is changing.. it would need a dynamic planning ..

I am all for rafale.. however if it's need to be ordered than we shouldn't commit to a large order.. rather order in batches to keep up the pace with technology... I really don't want IAF to be left with su-30s saga.. where we are still procuring an outdated early 2k era specs jet in 2021.

So for now order a 2nd batch of rafale of 36 nos but it should be of rafale 4.2 spec. Than see where it will lead to..

However, whatever we random internet fanboys wish it would hardly make a difference to IAF... I hope they must have done their homework nd won't repeat a mistake of su-30s procurement

 

[Hydra]

MWF very wells fall under medium weight category and will do all the dirty work that will fall under rafale's domain...

& As i hv said with the pace the technology is changing.. it would need a dynamic planning ..

I am all for rafale.. however if it's need to be ordered than we shouldn't commit to a large order.. rather order in batches to keep up the pace with technology... I really don't want IAF to be left with su-30s saga.. where we are still procuring an outdated early 2k era specs jet in 2021.

So for now order a 2nd batch of rafale of 36 nos but it should be of rafale 4.2 spec. Than see where it will lead to..

However, whatever we random internet fanboys wish it would hardly make a difference to IAF... I hope they must have done their homework nd won't repeat a mistake of su-30s procurement

Agreed on the technology evolvement, technology will change time to time. Hope IAF will incorporate production of upgraded variants in the contract.
And do you think that MWF spec is even close to the present day Rafale, ie Rafale F3R version? The Mk1/1a is actually pushed to IAF throat by MOD & Pariker, MWF is the close specification IAF wants as a true replacement for Mig21. Forget about F4 ( exact spec is yet to out i guess ) Present day Rafale is definitely much ahead of future MWF. We either need Rafale or rafale like aircraft along with MWF, i do agree that 2028 is too late to start inducting MMRCA2 aircraft . We should go g2g agreement with France or US to induct Rafale or its counterpart from USA to check our enemies.

By 2028, HAL will definitely lobby for Mk2 infront of MOD and sabotage mmrca2. With a paper concept of Tedbf, they managed to kick out IN's wishlist on Mig29 k replacement.

 

[thinkingcap81]

I didn't remember 27 feb 2019. My bad !

So you do believe, based on evidences, that IAF did down an F-16 of PAF. Nice to know that.

 

[Amit228]

Agreed on the technology evolvement, technology will change time to time. Hope IAF will incorporate production of upgraded variants in the contract.
And do you think that MWF spec is even close to the present day Rafale, ie Rafale F3R version? The Mk1/1a is actually pushed to IAF throat by MOD & Pariker, MWF is the close specification IAF wants as a true replacement for Mig21. Forget about F4 ( exact spec is yet to out i guess ) Present day Rafale is definitely much ahead of future MWF. We either need Rafale or rafale like aircraft along with MWF, i do agree that 2028 is too late to start inducting MMRCA2 aircraft . We should go g2g agreement with France or US to induct Rafale or its counterpart from USA to check our enemies.

By 2028, HAL will definitely lobby for Mk2 infront of MOD and sabotage mmrca2. With a paper concept of Tedbf, they managed to kick out IN's wishlist on Mig29 k replacement.

I get ur beef with HAL.. i too not long ago was a vociferous critic of HAL and it's infamous antics... Nd even now also i don't hv a cent percent faith on HAL..

BUT.. with all said... We need to give chance to our domestic players.. HAL is a behemoth in Indian aerospace industry.. it's too big to fail..

Not long ago china was at same stage where we are now.. it was making cheap knock offs of Soviet era mig-21s nd mig-19s.. didn't had any other options either like we had to purchase off the shelf latest tech fighters from western world.

But they kept on it... Nd now with their economy growing leaps nd bounds their aerospace industry will leave atleast Europe behind if not us in coming years.

So it's all boils down to economy & efforts thereafter.. with enough money available for R&D .. we can very replicate china..

& Thank god Manohar Parrikar shoved tejas down the throat of IAF.. that's for him we are witnessing now an ushering aerospace ecosystem with more than 300 MSMEs linked with tejas program..

This is the same analogy that we had witnessed with our automobile industry where in nascent stage when we opened our economy .. our domestic cos made JV with foreign cos a la bajaj kawasaki, hero honda... Now when they are leading manufacturers with their standalone presence sans any need of JV.. nd that too many MSMEs are directly linked to automobile industry..


Same needs to happen to our domestic aerospace industry.. we need to create an ecosystem (with tejas we hv stepped in right direction) where HAL is only rendered to a system integrator with manufacturing of different parts outsourced to pvt players..

That's why even if MWF appears 80-90% of wht rafale can do.. i will put my money on it.. Remember we can't claim to be a regional player if we can't manufacturer a fighter aircraft on our own..

 

[Hydra]

I get ur beef with HAL.. i too not long ago was a vociferous critic of HAL and it's infamous antics... Nd even now also i don't hv a cent percent faith on HAL..

BUT.. with all said... We need to give chance to our domestic players.. HAL is a behemoth in Indian aerospace industry.. it's too big to fail..

Not long ago china was at same stage where we are now.. it was making cheap knock offs of Soviet era mig-21s nd mig-19s.. didn't had any other options either like we had to purchase off the shelf latest tech fighters from western world.

But they kept on it... Nd now with their economy growing leaps nd bounds their aerospace industry will leave atleast Europe behind if not us in coming years.

So it's all boils down to economy & efforts thereafter.. with enough money available for R&D .. we can very replicate china..

& Thank god Manohar Parrikar shoved tejas down the throat of IAF.. that's for him we are witnessing now an ushering aerospace ecosystem with more than 300 MSMEs linked with tejas program..

This is the same analogy that we had witnessed with our automobile industry where in nascent stage when we opened our economy .. our domestic cos made JV with foreign cos a la bajaj kawasaki, hero honda... Now when they are leading manufacturers with their standalone presence sans any need of JV.. nd that too many MSMEs are directly linked to automobile industry..


Same needs to happen to our domestic aerospace industry.. we need to create an ecosystem (with tejas we hv stepped in right direction) where HAL is only rendered to a system integrator with manufacturing of different parts outsourced to pvt players..

That's why even if MWF appears 80-90% of wht rafale can do.. i will put my money on it.. Remember we can't claim to be a regional player if we can't manufacturer a fighter aircraft on our own..

I do understand the importance of PSU in a defense industry, but that doesn't means that they can dictate what our force wants. As per media reports IN wants either f18 or Rafale as a replacement for Mig29K. Then ine fine morning HAL shown its fade with TEDBF, no new aircraft will complete its developmental cycle with in a decade, TEDBF easily will make IN to wait minimum ten years.

Now Tejas Mk2, it may be an upgradation with respect mig 29 or mirage, but with rafale its not even close to it. EW suit of Rafale is one of the best i guess, lags behind EA18 & F22. It has superior range, better the range better its usefulness against Chinese.

Tejas cannot overcome its inherent characteristic, ie a point defense.

 

[A Person]

We should go g2g agreement with France or US to induct Rafale or its counterpart from USA to check our enemies.

There's no Rafale counterpart from the US. They have a Su-30MKI counterpart in the F-15, and a Tejas counterpart in the F-16, but they don't have anything that combines the efficiency, compactness, and affordability of the Rafale. Instead they can only offer aircraft that are much heavier, or less capable, or a lot more expensive.

So you do believe, based on evidences, that IAF did down an F-16 of PAF. Nice to know that.

Was there ever conclusive proof either way?

 

[randomradio]

The Indian Air Force should not only focus on having better fighters than its opponents. The Indian Air Force should purchase air defense missiles, radars, electronic warfare aircraft, and most importantly, have an automated air combat command system

All that's already being done or in the process of being done. Amongst force multipliers, AWACS and J-STARS have already been funded, plus we are now operating two new ELINT aircraft, while refuellers and more ELINT aircraft are in the process of coming in.

We already have this "automated air combat command system". Google IACCS and AFNET. It's been more than a decade now. And with the Rafael B-NET introduced, it's not a stretch to say we are numero uno amongst all the major air forces in terms of networking. Even the US and Europe are yet to catch up.

 

[randomradio]

Exactly... There's no sense procuring two seperate 4.5++ jets ( read mwf & MRFA) post 2025 considering future.. with the pace the technology is racing .. it may very well be obsolete by the time it completes production cycle

All aircraft reach certain levels of obscolescence as it's produced. Especially in India where we do not bring in new upgrades right from the beginning.

I am not overestimating nd even if i may so..than obviously it's due to nos. Remember it's the most numerous fighter type in IAF.. we have 272 of them upgrading all of it to latest standard nd tech (read AESA gan or gaa, aesa jammer etc) will not be cheap.. it may very well go beyond 5 billion dollars.. & that's a rough estimate.

$5B is not a lot. We are paying even more for SAMs. The upgrade program itself is very long term and will take a minimum of 15 years.

Lol CATS isn't anything great? Really? It maybe or may not be great but it's a step in right direction i.e into future & no there's no mk2 or mk3 planned for cats warrior ... that's why Hal & Newspace are developing cats warrior IAF version with PTA7E engine.. for a 8-9 meter bird..nd not for a 11-12 meter bird with to be developed HTFE engine.. why? Because we already hv pta7e nd it will be built around a proven engine. Also the specs are not that outlandish that hal nd newspace won't be able to deliver.. & to update Newspace has recently begun testing of alpha S swarm drones

There's nothing impressive yet about these systems. They will take a decade or more to mature. Most of them are only on paper or still under very early flight testing. This is the case world over, not just India.

Yeah i get ur fixation with rafale.. it's a wonderful platform & will do IAF a world of good..

However if rafale is procured through MRFA tender.. & by the time whole no are build it may well be 2040.. so do u really envisage a 2025-28 specs rafale4.2 to be world beater in era of 2040 which would be dominated by disruptive techs like ai enabled loyal wingman drones & 5.5 & 6th gen platforms?

Do u really think China will stop with J20 & won't transcend into ai tech nd 6th gen tech post 2040? With the pace China's technology is growing they are destined to beat US in this game of disruptive war fighting tech.

So, the competition of rafale is not j20 it is the future tech which will lead into a 2040 era..

By the end of 2030 nd 2040 we may well be seating on the same desk that we are warming now with su-30s.. which were excellent when we procured them in early 2k with their bars radar... But now with the pace technology has changed they are very well outdated .. heck! We are still procuring an early 2k era outdated tech su30s in 2021...

Where's the planning?


So whatever procurement is done it should be done with proper planning nd keeping future into consideration..

That's why CODS Bipin Rawat was very right in his assessment that we need to order aircrafts in batches so that we can keep the pace with technology... There's no point committing to a large order when it's last lot could stretch to more than a decade a la an early 2k specs su-30 manufactured in 2021.

5.5th gen, 6th gen etc are still far away in the future. Just because something is introduced right now doesn't mean it becomes immediately disruptive. There is a pretty long gestation period, which could stretch anywhere between 5-10 years, or even more.

For example, it's been years since the F-35 has been introduced, but the USAF has been constantly delaying its operational testing for quite sometime now. Which means it's still not ready to fight a war even though hundreds have been produced. Only after operational testing is complete can the aircraft become ready for combat.

F-35 Program Delays and Stumbles Continue

The latest annual Pentagon testing report on the F-35 details a simulation facility that doesn’t work, a leaking dam of design flaws, and a program that is still vulnerable to enemy hackers.

www.pogo.org

As the F-35 enters its twentieth year, program officials have delayed the important full-rate production milestone indefinitely because the program still can’t complete the initial operational testing phase.

Weapon programs undergo operational testing to see if they are effective in combat and suitable for use in the hands of the troops. This is different from the developmental testing that engineers and developers conduct to determine whether the weapon meets the engineering specifications of the manufacturer’s contract. The difference between the two processes can roughly be compared to field and laboratory experimentation. In the case of the F-35, the developmental testing done to date has already revealed major shortcomings, but the most serious flaws emerged once the F-35 was in the hands of real operators in the field during operational testing.

Today's F-35As Not Worth Including In High-End War Games According To Air Force General

Comments from one of the Air Force's top officers adds fuel to a newly-swirling and already fiery debate about the future F-35 program, as a whole.

www.thedrive.com

IOC and FOC are merely the first step. There's a very long process after that.

So any 6th gen tech, which doesn't even exist today, will be introduced only after 2035 or 2040, and will take a long time after that to become operationally viable enough to be used in war. So we are talking about anywhere between 2040-50 for such aircraft. Whereas the Rafale is operationally viable right now and will be so even at the end of its production run 12 years down the line.

It's the same with CATS, first it has to be developed, which will take years, then it has to be operationally tested and new variants will have to be produced based on operational testing. So we need a CATS Mk2, Mk3 etc in order to get this brand new technology right. By the time all this happens, we will be in the late 2030s. Regardless, the CATS is a complementary capability, it's not a replacement. CATS is entirely dependent on the primary aircraft to be effective. So better the aircraft, the better will CATS be.

Lastly, for some reason you have established some sort of equivalency between LCA Mk2 and Rafale. You call them both 4.5th gen, but the Rafale stopped being 4.5th gen back in 2012. In fact, the LCA Mk2 which will be released in 2026-27 is barely even equivalent to the Rafale that was released back in 2012, never mind the upcoming Rafale F4.2. The Rafale's equivalent is not the LCA, but AMCA. We need to beat the capability of the Rafale using the AMCA Mk2 around the time when Rafale production will end. The LCA is meant to be our low end component, a Mirage 2000++ if you will, which is still a generation behind the 2012 Rafale.

 

[randomradio]

As per media reports IN wants either f18 or Rafale as a replacement for Mig29K.

Never happened.

& Thank god Manohar Parrikar shoved tejas down the throat of IAF.. that's for him we are witnessing now an ushering aerospace ecosystem with more than 300 MSMEs linked with tejas program..

The truth: US allowed the export of the Israeli AESA radar to India. HAL proposed a new variant based on the radar. The IAF accepted. Parrikar merely happened to be the RM when the IAF accepted.

Everybody likes to treat the armed forces as the villains when it comes to indigenous equipment. Nobody actually believes that the LCA Mk1A was chosen based on merit and not due to political pressure.

 

[thinkingcap81]

Was there ever conclusive proof either way?

Nothing that i could understand from my own limited knowledge. The IAF and PAF showed nothing more than claims for their F-16 and Su-30 MKI kills. They say that PAF allowed IAF to move uncontested across the LoC, how many videos are available for proof - just one or two? If terrorists can cross the LoC then why can't SFs do it? IA can find out a time when Pak cannot take down an UAV and they can then send an UAV to record videos of our retaliation across the LoC.

What about proof of targets being destroyed by M2000s on 26 Feb - just some neatly aligned holes in a tin shed and similar flimsy evidence?

The GoI should never have told about a large number of would-be terrorists being eliminated while showing zero proof of the same. Next time they will need to show proper proof else the world will not take us seriously.

I do believe that our strikes were important, the importance lies in the messaging that a proper limited military action is on the cards now. This will certainly upset the calculations of Pak armed forces. Hopefully this is sufficient to ensure that they think many many times before coordinating terrorist attacks.

 

[randomradio]

Nothing that i could understand from my own limited knowledge. The IAF and PAF showed nothing more than claims for their F-16 and Su-30 MKI kills. They say that PAF allowed IAF to move uncontested across the LoC, how many videos are available for proof - just one or two? If terrorists can cross the LoC then why can't SFs do it? IA can find out a time when Pak cannot take down an UAV and they can then send an UAV to record videos of our retaliation across the LoC.

What about proof of targets being destroyed by M2000s on 26 Feb - just some neatly aligned holes in a tin shed and similar flimsy evidence?

The GoI should never have told about a large number of would-be terrorists being eliminated while showing zero proof of the same. Next time they will need to show proper proof else the world will not take us seriously.

I do believe that our strikes were important, the importance lies in the messaging that a proper limited military action is on the cards now. This will certainly upset the calculations of Pak armed forces. Hopefully this is sufficient to ensure that they think many many times before coordinating terrorist attacks.

The Balakot strikes were designed in a way that would allow Pakistan to deny they ever took place. But the problem is they admitted it. So GoI bought the high explosive kind so the next time there will be definite proof. We actually prefer that Pakistan silently accepts their beatings.

Maybe someday GoI will release the classified images, once the secret resolution of the satellites become commonplace.

 

[Ashwin]

You mean that Pak accepted that IAF intruded on 26 Feb?

Yes, multiple times. Mirages were inside pak airspace for 12 minutes.

All these were discussed multiple times. Please do not derail this thread.

Air Battle over Kashmir : MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16

24 Pak Jets Tried To Cross Over, Intercepted By 8 Air Force Fighters As India waited for the release of Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, who is in Pakistan's custody, exclusive details emerged on the unprecedented air combat operation along the Line of Control, where a package of 24...

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