MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions

[randomradio]

India still has no specific schedule or news for the MRFA yet?

They are still working out the kinks in the new procurement policy. Hopefully we will see movement next year.

The IAF has been pushing the MoD for an Acceptance of Necessity or AoN since a few years now, but have been unsuccessful due to a combination of budgetry issues and procedural issues, the one I mentioned above. Since last year, the have been pushing for an AoN by April this year but were unsuccessful. Covid hasn't helped either. The AoN is needed to start the procurement process.

Since last year, MRFA was the third priority for the MoD. First was LCA, which was signed early this year. The second is the new Mig-29s and MKIs from Russia. With that in advanced stages of negotations, it will be time to move towards MRFA next year.

 

[Tatvamasi]

LOL.
This why they don't want to sell it ! It's full US propaganda.
Taiwan is the sole M2000 customer with such issue. ask yourself why....

Nope, IAF said the same multiple times. They tolerate it because of their Russian inventory.

 

[randomradio]

Nope, IAF said the same multiple times. They tolerate it because of their Russian inventory.

No, they didn't.

What the IAF said is French jets are expensive to procure but very cheap and easy to maintain. That's the very reason why the IAF has been giving more importance to LCC, which favours French procurement.

 

[A Person]

The technology development for few specimens costs high. And french labour, i dont know specific cost of french man hours but i heard that wester European labour cost is costlier.

Yeah, higher costs of living results in higher wages, which is why companies like to outsource to poorer countries. See the whole thing about PPP.

That said, the way a high cost of living economy can stay competitive is by greatly increasing individual productivity. This is why HAL computed they needed 2.7 times more work hours per aircraft as Dassault.

Note that for the Mirage upgrade, the work is done by HAL. Dassault only did the first two, as per contract.

 

[kor4116]

They are still working out the kinks in the new procurement policy. Hopefully we will see movement next year.

The IAF has been pushing the MoD for an Acceptance of Necessity or AoN since a few years now, but have been unsuccessful due to a combination of budgetry issues and procedural issues, the one I mentioned above. Since last year, the have been pushing for an AoN by April this year but were unsuccessful. Covid hasn't helped either. The AoN is needed to start the procurement process.

Since last year, MRFA was the third priority for the MoD. First was LCA, which was signed early this year. The second is the new Mig-29s and MKIs from Russia. With that in advanced stages of negotations, it will be time to move towards MRFA next year.

I see. If MRFA is promoted, what do you think of the timing and size of the contract? Do you think it is 114 units at a time according to the original plan, or will it be divided into BATCH like 36 or 72 units?

 

[randomradio]

I see. If MRFA is promoted, what do you think of the timing and size of the contract? Do you think it is 114 units at a time according to the original plan, or will it be divided into BATCH like 36 or 72 units?

MRFA is specific to 114 jets. There will also be 50% options, which is 57 jets. If MRFA is cancelled, then Rafale have to come in through batches, which may or may not work out for the full requirement. The size of the batch can be as small as 36 jets, for delivery from France, or as much as 90 jets for an Indian production line. But it will be much faster than a tender.

The IAF wants 200-250 Rafale. If MRFA goes ahead, we will see 15 from French lines, 99+57 jets from Indian lines. And we will likely also see 36 jets ordered separately from French lines in parallel in order to compensate for the massive delays. This will take us to 243 jets or just 207 jets. This is almost how the MKI deal happened as well.

MRFA timeline is difficult to predict. Last time it took 5 years from RFP to the beginning of contract negotiations. This time it should take a minimum of 3 years. And negotiations may take anywhere between 6 months to many years. My personal estimation is if the tender begins next year, then a contract is possible anywhere between 2026 and 2028. So deliveries could begin between 2029 and 2031. A second batch of 36 is needed to compensate for the delay.

The fastest and cheapest method would be to straightaway go for 90 Rafales, deliveries could begin as soon as 2026. But funds will be an issue.

 

[kor4116]

MRFA는 114 개의 제트에만 적용됩니다. 또한 57 대의 제트기 인 50 % 옵션도 있습니다. MRFA가 취소되면 Rafale은 일괄 처리를 거쳐야하며 전체 요구 사항을 충족 할 수도 있고 그렇지 않을 수도 있습니다. 배치의 크기는 프랑스에서 배송하는 경우 36 개의 제트, 인도 생산 라인의 경우 90 개의 제트로 작을 수 있습니다. 그러나 그것은 입찰보다 훨씬 빠를 것입니다.

IAF는 200-250 Rafale을 원합니다. MRFA가 진행되면 프랑스 라인에서 15 대, 인도 라인에서 99 + 57 대의 제트기를 볼 수 있습니다. 또한 엄청난 지연을 보상하기 위해 프랑스 노선과 별도로 주문한 36 대의 제트기를 병렬로 볼 수 있습니다. 이렇게하면 243 대의 제트기 또는 207 대의 제트기로 이동합니다. 이것은 거의 MKI 거래가 일어난 방법이기도합니다.

MRFA 타임 라인은 예측하기 어렵습니다. 마지막으로 RFP에서 계약 협상 시작까지 5 년이 걸렸습니다. 이번에는 최소 3 년이 소요됩니다. 그리고 협상은 6 개월에서 수년이 걸릴 수 있습니다. 내 개인적인 평가는 입찰이 내년에 시작되면 2026 년에서 2028 년 사이 어디에서나 계약이 가능하다는 것입니다. 따라서 배송은 2029 년에서 2031 년 사이에 시작될 수 있습니다. 지연을 보상하기 위해 36 개의 두 번째 배치가 필요합니다.

가장 빠르고 저렴한 방법은 곧바로 90 개의 Rafales로 이동하는 것이며 배송은 2026 년에 시작될 수 있습니다.하지만 자금이 문제가 될 것입니다.

India has already chosen Rafale in the 1st MMRCA in the past, and I feel that another competition is now unnecessary. Rather than having a long competition again, buying Rafale directly would be a better option. The price negotiation process will be as important as it is not competition. Also, it is not expected that a fighter other than Rafale will be selected even through the MRFA competition. The additional Rafale to be purchased will probably be 4.2 and will provide considerable deterrence to China before the release of the AMCA in the 2030s.

 

[jk007]

I am not telling that upgradation was unnecessary, what i am saying is Mirage is a costly platform for upgrade. There are multiple reasons for that.
And the way we giving priority un india too s**ks. GOI & Parliament will take swift decision related to ministry but when comes to military gears they will take hell lote of time for finalaisation.
Look at central vista project, they dont have any problem in spending 20k cr even during pandemic.

I beleive the reason for high cost is, unlike f16 mirage is not so common. The technology development for few specimens costs high. And french labour, i dont know specific cost of french man hours but i heard that wester European labour cost is costlier.

French people have 35 hour work week with an hour for lunch (they can have wine during lunch and come back to work).....maybe that is one reason for cost....

 

[Hydra]

MRFA is specific to 114 jets. There will also be 50% options, which is 57 jets. If MRFA is cancelled, then Rafale have to come in through batches, which may or may not work out for the full requirement. The size of the batch can be as small as 36 jets, for delivery from France, or as much as 90 jets for an Indian production line. But it will be much faster than a tender.

The IAF wants 200-250 Rafale. If MRFA goes ahead, we will see 15 from French lines, 99+57 jets from Indian lines. And we will likely also see 36 jets ordered separately from French lines in parallel in order to compensate for the massive delays. This will take us to 243 jets or just 207 jets. This is almost how the MKI deal happened as well.

MRFA timeline is difficult to predict. Last time it took 5 years from RFP to the beginning of contract negotiations. This time it should take a minimum of 3 years. And negotiations may take anywhere between 6 months to many years. My personal estimation is if the tender begins next year, then a contract is possible anywhere between 2026 and 2028. So deliveries could begin between 2029 and 2031. A second batch of 36 is needed to compensate for the delay.

The fastest and cheapest method would be to straightaway go for 90 Rafales, deliveries could begin as soon as 2026. But funds will be an issue.

2029-2031 time frame? Thats verymuch near to AMCA, also by that time probably LCA mk2 might have formed first squadron with IAF.
Will HAL allows IAF to go for Rafale then? They will ask goi to pursue more AMCAs i guess.

 

[randomradio]

India has already chosen Rafale in the 1st MMRCA in the past, and I feel that another competition is now unnecessary. Rather than having a long competition again, buying Rafale directly would be a better option. The price negotiation process will be as important as it is not competition. Also, it is not expected that a fighter other than Rafale will be selected even through the MRFA competition. The additional Rafale to be purchased will probably be 4.2 and will provide considerable deterrence to China before the release of the AMCA in the 2030s.

A new competition is needed since the last one was 10+ years ago, it will actually be 14 years in 2023 since the aircraft were flight tested.

The IAF wants a competition because that's the only way to ensure all the companies will bring their best technologies. The almost 15-year gap is more than enough for the development of new technologies. Plus it will give a lot of diplomatic leverage to the govt during the course of the competition, which is very important for India. A direct contract will give too much advantage to the companies.

2029-2031 time frame? Thats verymuch near to AMCA, also by that time probably LCA mk2 might have formed first squadron with IAF.
Will HAL allows IAF to go for Rafale then? They will ask goi to pursue more AMCAs i guess.

AMCA will become operationally available only after 2035, and even this is an optimistic timeframe. Until then it will be no different from how LCA Mk1 was between 2013 and 2019. And we will get decent numbers only in the 2040s and will be needed to replace Jaguars. By 2029-31, AMCA will only be in the LSP stage, where LCA was in the late 2000s.

AMCA poses no threat to MRFA.

 

[Bon Plan]

Nope, IAF said the same multiple times. They tolerate it because of their Russian inventory.

Between a french price and a russian price, the gap is huge.
But between a french servicability and a russian one, the gap is even higher.
so....

 

[Bon Plan]

India has already chosen Rafale in the 1st MMRCA in the past, and I feel that another competition is now unnecessary. Rather than having a long competition again, buying Rafale directly would be a better option. The price negotiation process will be as important as it is not competition. Also, it is not expected that a fighter other than Rafale will be selected even through the MRFA competition. The additional Rafale to be purchased will probably be 4.2 and will provide considerable deterrence to China before the release of the AMCA in the 2030s.

indeed. And Rafale technological road map is far stronger than any other competitor.
If Rafale > EF2000 in 2012 (and it was the case, as shown by swiss leaks), Rafale >> EF2000 in 2021 ....

French people have 35 hour work week with an hour for lunch (they can have wine during lunch and come back to work).....maybe that is one reason for cost....

Not really.
35 hoiurs is the legal work time. You can work more (typically 39hours) but are paid in extra hours with a +25% wage.
wine? I think your figure is a 1970's one.... It's possible, but less and less used.

 

[Herciv]

A nice analysis about Rafale and J-20 in Hymalayan moutains.

Rafale vs J-20: IAF Pilot Explains Why A 'Superior' J-20 Stealth Fighter Jet Will Avoid Skirmish With Indian Rafales

Rafale vs J-20: In an India-China air force clash, IAF explains how China could use its J-20 jets to counter Indian Rafales & Su-30 MKIs.

eurasiantimes.com

 

[Tatvamasi]

Between a french price and a russian price, the gap is huge.
But between a french servicability and a russian one, the gap is even higher.
so....

And you have experience operating both? For a single-engine fighter, Mirage has one of the highest per hour cost.

 

[Bon Plan]

And you have experience operating both? For a single-engine fighter, Mirage has one of the highest per hour cost.

And is probably the best Indian asset until Rafale arrival.
Never forget that the sole plane that shoot down a F16 is a M2000....

 

[Tatvamasi]

And is probably the best Indian asset until Rafale arrival.

That would be MKI. M2000 is expensive and few that it's reserved for some missions.

 

[lcafanboy]

And is probably the best Indian asset until Rafale arrival.
Never forget that the sole plane that shoot down a F16 is a M2000....

You forgot IAF Shot down F-16 with a 3rd generation MIG 21 too...

 

[thinkingcap81]

And is probably the best Indian asset until Rafale arrival.
Never forget that the sole plane that shoot down a F16 is a M2000....

I guess that this is a confirmation (at least from you) that IAF never took down an F-16 on 27 Feb 2019, unless you play coy now...

 

[Sathya]

And you have experience operating both? For a single-engine fighter, Mirage has one of the highest per hour cost.

We used mirage 2000 in kargil & balakote strike...

Not sure what other strike platform that we can employ today.

 

[Amit228]

Due to fund crunch nd budgetary constraints I don't think it will be feasible for gov to finance an order of this magnitude keeping in mind we have to fund MWF, AMCA development as well as the procurement of the same in IAF..

MRFA if signed will clash with MWF timeline.. so can we procure both MRFA nd MWF at the same time..i.e from yr 2026-27?

So rather than running around ill-fated MRFA.. iaf focus should be on updating su30s... Which we have in abundance..

Surprisingly IAF is still tight lipped on it's most numerous fighter type.. there's no timeline of su30s upgrade which are now outdated with their early 2000's era tech.
So the more pressing need currently is MLU of su30s nd should be taken into consideration.