Dassault Aviation and the Rafale Team confident about exports
Fabrice Wolf, 17 December 2023
With an offer welcomed by Riyadh and discussions underway with Tashkent, Dassault Aviation and Team Rafale have every reason to be satisfied with the current momentum surrounding the French fighter. What is surprising, on the other hand, is that the French aircraft manufacturer is now confident even in the indiscretions it makes to specialist journalists, a sign of renewed confidence after the Rafale's terrible early years.
It has to be said that Dassault has objective reasons to be confident, with an order book that is already more than comfortable, and a positive outlook for new orders in the years to come. This is an opportunity to take a detailed look at the various negotiations and discussions underway concerning potential future orders for the Rafale worldwide.
Summary
- The hard period of doubt for Dassault Aviation and the Rafale team from 2005 to 2015
- Indonesia, India: negotiations to be concluded quickly
- Colombia, Iraq, Serbia: an update on current negotiations
- Egypt, Qatar, India, Greece: Towards new Rafale orders from incumbent operators
- Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan: promising new prospects
- What about the French air force?
- Conclusion
Just ten years ago, after the resounding failures in Morocco and Brazil, and with the cancellation of the Indian MRCA contract becoming inevitable, there was hardly anyone to declare themselves optimistic about the commercial future of the French Rafale fighter. Even Dassault Aviation, which has never wavered from its confidence in the aircraft, seemed to be losing confidence at the time.
The hard period of doubt for Dassault Aviation and the Rafale Team from 2005 to 2015
The consequences of this hard period are still being felt today. Already reluctant to open up about its ongoing negotiations, the French aircraft manufacturer has since become almost opaque on the subject, only allowing itself to comment on contracts once they had been signed.
The lack of export orders led Dassault Aviation to put its Rafale assembly line at Mérignac into 'survival' mode, producing 11 aircraft a year for the French air force and navy.
In fact, when Dassault Aviation told journalist Michel Cabirol that it now considers negotiations with Saudi Arabia to be promising, and that it intends to make a major effort to position itself in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, this was clearly a profound change of position on its part, and a clear sign of a return to confidence within the Rafale team.
It has to be said that the aircraft manufacturer has every reason to be confident and optimistic. With more than 310 aircraft on order from 7 countries, the prospects for exporting its combat aircraft have never been so promising, at least not since the Mirage F1 and its 470 or so aircraft exported to nine air forces around the world.
To understand this confidence, it is useful to summarise all the negotiations underway concerning the French fighter which, having surpassed the number of Mirage 2000 exported, now has every chance of beating the Mirage F1 in this field, and coming close to matching the success of the Mirage III and V which made the French military aeronautics industry, and Dassault Aviation, major pillars of the world fighter aircraft market.
Indonesia, India: negotiations to be concluded quickly
As Michel Cabirol points out, Dassault remains pragmatic. Its current priorities are to finalise two orders that need to be signed quickly: the last 18 Indonesian Rafales, and the 26 Rafale M for the Indian Navy.
The Rafale M has been chosen over the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet by the Indian Navy to equip its new aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant.
After an initial order for 6 aircraft signed in February 2022, followed by a second tranche, this time for 18 fighters, made official last August, Dassault now only needs to sign the third and final tranche, again for 18 Rafales, to conclude this contract for 42 aircraft for the Indonesian Air Force.
Given Indonesia's specific characteristics in this area, which can only commit to expenditure approved by Parliament, the French and Indonesian negotiators were obliged to break the order down into three tranches, depending on the financing authorisations granted by Parliament. According to Dassault Aviation, the third instalment should be signed shortly, although possible slippages for budgetary reasons are expected.
The second negotiation, which is nearing completion and is being conducted by the aircraft manufacturer and Team Rafale, concerns the 26 Rafale M aircraft that the Indian Navy must order by the end of January 2024, in order to comply with the credit authorisation granted by the Indian Parliament. These aircraft are to equip the new aircraft carrier INS Vikrant, which entered service with the Indian Navy last year.
Colombia, Iraq, Serbia: an update on current negotiations
In addition to these two contracts, worth more than €5 billion, Dassault is involved in a number of negotiations that began several years ago, and which could rapidly turn into firm orders if the blocking conditions are lifted.
The Colombian Air Force is due to replace its Kfir C7s over the next few years, with the Rafale the preferred choice.
The first of these concerns the replacement of the Colombian Air Force's Kfir C7s. After the political imbroglio at the end of 2022, which led the Colombian President to announce an order for 16 Rafales, without negotiations having been completed with the aircraft manufacturer, the subject remains hot for Dassault, with a decision to order the French fighter in the coming months, and a contract that could be signed in 2025 or 2026, according to local sources.
The Iraqi authorities had also announced too early an agreement to purchase Rafales to replace some of the American F-16s arming the Iraqi air force. However, the Baghdad authorities still seem determined to turn to Dassault to rebuild their fighter fleet, while distancing themselves somewhat from the United States in this area.
Finally, Serbia's status is relatively similar to that of Colombia and Iraq. On several occasions, Belgrade has announced the imminence of an order for Rafales to replace the Serbian air force's MIG-29s. Difficulties over the delivery of certain munitions (the European Meteor missile in this case), followed by tensions between Serbia and Kosovo, have repeatedly postponed the materialisation of this contract, which could nonetheless be made official soon, conditions permitting.
Egypt, Qatar, India, Greece: towards new Rafale orders from incumbent operators
Dassault can be confident, beyond the negotiations currently under way. A number of long-standing Rafale users have announced their intention to expand their fleets in the near future.
The Hellenic Air Force plans to acquire a second squadron of Rafales to replace the Mirage 2000-5s still in service.
This is particularly the case for Egypt, the first export customer for the Rafale, and the Mirage 2000 before it, which, after ordering the first 24 aircraft in 2015, has ordered a second tranche for 30 new fighters, in 2021. On that occasion, the country's authorities announced that they intended to increase the Egyptian Air Force fleet to 80 aircraft, through a future order for Rafales in F4 format.
The same applies to Qatar, the French fighter's second-largest export customer. After an initial order for 24 Rafales in 2015, Doha has exercised its option for 12 new aircraft in 2018, taking its fleet to 36 fighters. According to several corroborating reports, it seems that the Qatari authorities once again wish to activate a second option, for 24 new aircraft, to bring the Rafale fleet up to 60 fighters.
In 2016, India formalised a state-to-state order for 36 Rafale fighters. This served as an interim solution following the cancellation of the MMRCA contract, which provided for the construction of 126 French fighters in India. Although the 36 Indian Rafales have been delivered and now play a key role in the country's air defence system, including its deterrent capability, the need to replace the Indian Air Force's Mig-21, Mirage 2000 and Jaguar aircraft, which was supposed to be covered by the MRCA programme, remains.
The Rafale is in a favourable position in India as regards the MRCA-2 contract for 114 locally assembled aircraft.
This is why New Delhi has launched the MRCA-2 programme, which once again involves 114 fighters to be built locally. Competition for such a contract is obviously fierce. However, the Rafale has a number of major advantages, including implementation costs that are much lower than those of the competition, thanks to the infrastructure and technological developments financed by the first Rafale contract. In addition, with the Indian Navy's order for 26 Rafale M fighters, the French fighter is becoming a mainstay of the Indian air force.
The latest of the current Rafale operators to announce its intention to expand its fleet is Greece. The Hellenic Air Force currently operates a squadron of 24 aircraft. However, the Hellenic Air Force has repeatedly announced its intention to acquire a second squadron in the coming years, particularly when it is necessary to replace its Mirage 2000-5s, which play a key role in keeping the Turkish air force at bay over the Aegean Sea. It is worth noting that the Hellenic air force will be the only one to operate the Rafale and F-35A simultaneously.
Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan: promising new prospects
For a long time, the Rafale's potential customers and prospects were limited to air forces that were traditional customers of Dassault Aviation fighters. For example, Egypt, Qatar, India, Greece and the United Arab Emirates are all flying the Mirage 2000. More recently, new customers for the French military aeronautics industry have emerged, such as Croatia, for 12 second-hand Rafale B and Cs, and above all Indonesia, for 42 French fighters. Over the past few weeks, discussions have begun in places where, until recently, no one would have imagined them.
The Rafale is just as effective in the field of air superiority (aircraft in the background with 3 supersonic tanks, 2 Meteor, 2 Mica EM and 2 Mica IR), as in the field of attack (foreground with subsonic canister, laser designator and bomb rack).
This is particularly true of Saudi Arabia, a traditional customer of the British and American military aeronautics industries, which has asked the French aircraft manufacturer for a counter-offer for 54 Rafale fighters, in response to the difficulties encountered by Riyadh in acquiring American F-35As and new British Typhoon fighters for the Saudi Air Force.
While it is clear that the Saudi request was essentially intended to put more pressure on London and Berlin to authorise the sale of additional Eurofighters, Dassault appears to have produced a relevant proposal that has aroused Riyadh's interest, to the extent that the aircraft manufacturer now publicly believes it has a chance in this deal.
While the announcement of Riyadh's request came as something of a surprise, especially given the poor relations between the Kingdom and France in recent years, the revelations made a few days ago by the Intelligence Online website concerning discussions between France and two Central Asian republics for the purchase of Rafales left even the most optimistic sceptics in the camp.
However, the news has now been confirmed that Paris has begun talks with Astana and Tashkent to replace part of the Kazakh and Uzbek air forces' fighter fleets inherited from the Soviet era. The subject was also raised by President Macron during his visit to the two capitals at the beginning of November. The most surprising aspect of this case is that, according to La Tribune, Dassault is very involved in these negotiations, to the point of being confident in his confidences to the French journalist.
What about the French air force?
One last Rafale customer could announce an order extension in the next few years. This customer is none other than France. We are not talking here about the sixty or so fighters that still need to be ordered between now and 2030, in order to achieve an "all Rafale" air force of 225 fighters by 2035, as confirmed in the 2024-2030 LPM. France may need to order new Rafales in the coming years, for two reasons.
The first Rafale M fighter aircraft in the French naval aviation fleet entered service in 2000, and will make their mark from 2030 onwards.
Firstly, it is likely that the first Rafale M fighters, which entered service aboard the Charles de Gaulle in the early 2000s, will not be able to hold their own beyond 2035. This is because shipborne fighters are subject to much greater wear and tear than land-based aircraft, whether because of the particularly demanding landing and catapulting operations for the airframe, or the marine environment that corrodes all the metal parts.
The French Navy is already warning that part of its fighter fleet is ageing. What's more, it will probably make little sense to upgrade these airframes to F4, let alone F5, standards, given their limited potential. Consequently, in order to maintain a coherent on-board fighter component aboard the Charles de Gaulle, and then its successor, until the arrival of the SCAF, it may be essential to order, beyond 2030, a dozen Rafale Ms to replace the most worn-out airframes.
The arrival of the SCAF could lead the French air force to extend its Rafale fleet renewal beyond the Navy's handful of aircraft. Indeed, with the announcement of the future Rafale F5 standard, and its Loyal Wingman drone derived from the Neuron, from 2030 the French air force will have a coherent tool to respond to the current threat, for more than a decade. Germany has also recently announced that it may develop a similar UAV to support future versions of its Eurofighter Typhoon.
In this context, the urgency of seeing the SCAF enter service by 2040 could be reviewed, giving manufacturers and the European air forces involved in this programme additional time to design an air combat system that will have nothing in common with the fighter aircraft that preceded it. In addition, this extra time could allow us to obtain initial feedback on the use of the combat systems and UAVs integrated into the Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon, so that we can produce equipment that is perfectly suited to operational needs and constraints.
The performance of the Rafale F5 and its Loyal Wingman, derived from the Neuron, will enable it to hold the line beyond 2040.
If this is the case, the French Air Force and Naval Aviation will need to replace their oldest fighters, in addition to the dozen or so Rafale Ms mentioned earlier.
Conclusion
If Rafale sales, both export and domestic, were to stagnate at their current levels, Dassault Aviation's programme would already be an incredible success, far exceeding the hopes of the most optimistic supporters of the French fighter just ten years ago.
However, as mentioned in this article, the Rafale still has a lot to live up to, and could well become the long-awaited rebound for the French military aeronautics industry since the success of the Mirage III and V in the 60s and 70s. This optimism seems to have spread to Dassault Aviation, which has been unusually forthcoming in recent months about current discussions, even allowing itself to be confident about certain sensitive issues.
The Rafale's positive momentum is far from over.
It has to be said that the stakes are as high as the hopes. A Rafale will earn Dassault Aviation roughly as much over its lifetime as it did when it was purchased. Moreover, as the loyalty of Mirage 2000 operators to the Rafale shows, 62% (5 out of 8) of the delta-wing fighter's customers have turned to Dassault's twin-engine fighter. As a result, the success of the Rafale today will determine the activity of the entire French military aeronautics industry for at least the next 40 years, and perhaps much longer.
Under these conditions, it is easy to understand the efforts made by the entire Rafale team, as well as the French government's plenipotentiary services, not to let the wave of success on which the Rafale is riding today pass us by.
. Happy now my French friend
