MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions

[randomradio]

To be fair, the SH is basically a new plane compared to the original F-18 even if it's based on the same design. Generally, if the roles are the similar then I don't see why you couldn't just use the reliable design and upgrade it with advanced materials, engines, enlarge the fuselage, etc.

If the scope of requirements is drastically different or there is some change in threat environment that just makes the tried/true design obsolete for whatever reason then I agree there is no choice.

The idea of a Super Rafale isn't bad. My point was it won't hit the export market due to the presence of more advanced jets.

Would you say the AMCA will be inferior to the Super Rafale? And will it be more expensive? If AMCA is better and cheaper, the choice is gonna be clear for most export markets.

off topic but is still a thing? I heard murmurs about it over a decade ago but thought it was mostly hot air and fan boys making cool cgi.

PAK DP is a real project. It's their attempt to take the lead.

The fantastical claims have led US experts to believe it's just a myth. But then so were the PAK FA and Armata before they came to the fore. Perhaps it's true, perhaps it's been exaggerated, but the project itself is real. At the very least, it's gonna be better than the Mig-31 by a significant margin.

It's not out of the ordinary though, since we know the SR-72 is real.

 

[randomradio]

Compared with the F-35, the Rafale is a new design: this is not clear when you look at the timeline because the US were already behind schedule when they started their project.

For example, the virtualisation of IT on the Rafale is well ahead of the F-35's IT architecture, which means that it is possible to change generations of IT on the Rafale seamlessly, with no delay in integration, whereas for the F-35 we lose several years each time.

Similarly, in terms of maintenance, the advanced modularisation, even for the engine, the elimination of the need for a test bench when fitting a new engine, and the elimination of major overhauls are all signs of a maintenance system that is well ahead of the F-35.

Comparing Rafale to the F-35 wasn't my point. We were just talking about comparing Super Rafale to future stealth options.

The SH has also climbed the value chain.

F/A–18 Super Hornet: Addressing India's Fighter Requirements

www.spsnavalforces.com

Plus, the Super Hornet does not require any scheduled depot-level maintenance and the engine does not require any scheduled maintenance between overhauls.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Plus, the Super Hornet does not require any scheduled depot-level maintenance and the engine does not require any scheduled maintenance between overhauls.

The Rafale engine, on the other hand, does not even require an overhaul, just "on condition" maintenance.

 

[Ginvincible]

The idea of a Super Rafale isn't bad. My point was it won't hit the export market due to the presence of more advanced jets.

Would you say the AMCA will be inferior to the Super Rafale? And will it be more expensive? If AMCA is better and cheaper, the choice is gonna be clear for most export markets.

I think lack of exports will speak more of French foreign policy and standing on the world stage more than anything. 4th gen platforms will always have a place, at least for domestic patrolling/low intensity defense, until unmanned craft become better and cheaper.

Aircraft purchases are inherently political decisions. Many countries still buy F-16s for basic missions. They could buy cheaper Chinese solutions but they don't because of US influence.

PAK DP is a real project. It's their attempt to take the lead.

The fantastical claims have led US experts to believe it's just a myth. But then so were the PAK FA and Armata before they came to the fore. Perhaps it's true, perhaps it's been exaggerated, but the project itself is real. At the very least, it's gonna be better than the Mig-31 by a significant margin.

It's not out of the ordinary though, since we know the SR-72 is real.

Will be interesting to see a prototype or mockup someday.

Given the near artisanal speed at which they're constructing and developing the su-57, I suspect India will develop and field its own next gen high attitude fighter before the Russians.

 

[randomradio]

The Rafale engine, on the other hand, does not even require an overhaul, just "on condition" maintenance.

I know, but you are helping my point, that a new design is gonna be better than a modernization of an old one.

New airframes will have metamaterials, self-healing structures, morphing wings and so on. The kind of advances possible on a Super Rafale will be significantly lower in comparison.

France abandoned the M4000 for pretty much the same reasons. It would have been a completely outdated design by now, just like the Eagle and Flanker. Super Rafale will meet the same fate in 20 years.

 

[randomradio]

I think lack of exports will speak more of French foreign policy and standing on the world stage more than anything. 4th gen platforms will always have a place, at least for domestic patrolling/low intensity defense, until unmanned craft become better and cheaper.

Aircraft purchases are inherently political decisions. Many countries still buy F-16s for basic missions. They could buy cheaper Chinese solutions but they don't because of US influence.

Sure. But for most air forces today, the Rafale purchase is their primary bet for capability. But with Super Rafale, they will buy some for political reasons, but will have to complement it with something else for higher level capability. Like what RAAF's gonna do with the F-35, they have to replace the SH squadron with more capability.

For example, it's gonna be practically impossible to penetrate the Indian market again with Super Rafale in the 20+ year timeframe. Only the NGF or greater is necessary. The French too will very quickly have to compensate for the inadequacies of the Super Rafale. And export customers will end up waiting for a next-gen replacement instead.

Super Rafale's basically a way for Dassault to milk the Rafale some more, while delaying the development of NGF by another decade.

But it's justified if the French develop a near-hypersonic jet too. 'Cause the Mig-31 was one thing, the PAK DP otoh is gonna need a direct competitor 'cause of the difference in altitude and speed.

Will be interesting to see a prototype or mockup someday.

Given the near artisanal speed at which they're constructing and developing the su-57, I suspect India will develop and field its own next gen high attitude fighter before the Russians.

PAK DP is expected quite soon. It officially began in 2021.

India is way, way behind. We haven't even started on our F-22 and Rafale-equivalents yet. So let's get through this decade first.

 

[Bon Plan]

I don't agree with that. Super Rafale will not have any real performance advantage due to lack of IWB. For example, there is no supersonic release of bombs. And IWB can carry unique armaments like a laser weapon.

The F-35 specific comment doesn't apply here. A stealth airframe doesn't provide only stealth, it also provides modern design solutions by being newer. What you are trying to defend is a Hornet to Super Hornet transition versus a new design. It's obvious a new design will always win in quality.

Super Rafale is just a cheap solution to continue using a trusted design, something that's practiced by others too. It will have to be complemented by a superior system eventually, like a new near-space fighter that can compete with the Mig-41 for example.

As the frame of a bird is not the most complicated and costly in a jet, a Super Rafale may have integrated weapons bays.
Using the name of Super Rafale is marketingly interesting (as in the Mirage saga), despite being a deeply modified jet. But not so modified if it use the latest M88 avatar (the one developped for the NGF demonstrator) and the Rafale F5/F6 avionic.

 

[Bon Plan]

IWB can carry unique armaments like a laser weapon

Trappier, Dassault ceo, explained some weeks ago that Laser don't seems to be a solution for NGF project because too heavy and too energy greedy (for a jet). He never spoke to say nothing.

 

[randomradio]

As the frame of a bird is not the most complicated and costly in a jet, a Super Rafale may have integrated weapons bays.
Using the name of Super Rafale is marketingly interesting (as in the Mirage saga), despite being a deeply modified jet. But not so modified if it use the latest M88 avatar (the one developped for the NGF demonstrator) and the Rafale F5/F6 avionic.

If the Super Rafale gets an IWB, then it's gonna be a whole new jet. Picdel talked only about the addition of a plug to elongate the Rafale. I guess it would be in the same class as the TEDBF then. The land version of TEDBF will be 1.5T lighter.

Trappier, Dassault ceo, explained some weeks ago that Laser don't seems to be a solution for NGF project because too heavy and too energy greedy (for a jet). He never spoke to say nothing.

Depends on the power of the laser and electrical output of the engine. The British solution should be able to provide over 1MW. A RAM turbine can also be integrated into the airframe that specifically powers the weapon. Future battery solutions will be an option.

Anyway, this doesn't matter, it's just an example, one out of many.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

 

[Bon Plan]

Picdel talked only about the addition of a plug to elongate the Rafale

Trappier said that some weeks ago.
This plug or plugs may include integrated bays.
If the bird is bigger, the apex of the delta will be more important : possible to use it for some in bay AAM ?

 

[randomradio]

Trappier said that some weeks ago.
This plug or plugs may include integrated bays.
If the bird is bigger, the apex of the delta will be more important : possible to use it for some in bay AAM ?

The IWB is the only weakness of the Rafale. Would be great if that's fixed.

But you will need to elongate the jet by 4-4.5m, that seems unrealistic. A 1-1.5m extension is more realistic, but without weapons bays.

Okay, let's see what the future holds for the Rafale.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

The IWB is the only weakness of the Rafale. Would be great if that's fixed.

But you will need to elongate the jet by 4-4.5m, that seems unrealistic. A 1-1.5m extension is more realistic, but without weapons bays.

Okay, let's see what the future holds for the Rafale.

We can also create a gap between the two reactors by moving them apart to create an IWB.

 

[randomradio]

We can also create a gap between the two reactors by moving them apart to create an IWB.

That's a whole new jet. Flanker-ette. Or Felon-ette.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Lucknow firm to supply parts for Rafale

Read more at:
Lucknow Firm To Supply Parts For Rafale | Lucknow News - Times of India

Lucknow: Aerolloy Technologies Limited (ATL), a subsidiary of PTC Industries Limited, has signed a pact with France-based Dassault Aviation to supply the latter with titanium cast parts for the Rafale Multirole fighter aircraft.

As per the multi-year purchase agreement, Aerolloy, which is Lucknow-based, will produce the full range of Titanium castings parts for the Rafale multirole fighter aircraft and the Falcon business jet program from current calendar onwards.

“Through this agreement, Aerolloy Technologies is poised to contribute significantly to the enduring success of Make in India – Make for the World. As the only India-based manufacturer of critical titanium cast parts, we are eager to leverage our capabilities to support the growing requirements of the various aircraft in Dassault Aviation’s portfolio,” said Sachin Agarwal, chairman and managing director of PTC Industries.

Bruno Coiffier, senior executive vice president purchasing, Dassault Aviation said: “This strategic collaboration salutes the expertise of Aerolloy Technologies joining Dassault Aviation’s worldwide global supply chain for the cutting-edge Rafale and Falcon jets.”

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

With 400 J-20 Stealth Fighters In Arsenal, Can India Explore F5 ‘Super Rafales’ To Challenge PLAAF Jets?

By Air Marshal Anil Chopra

French Air and Space Force (FASF) has just ordered 42 Rafale jets for around $5.5 billion. The purchase comes amidst French lawmakers’ concerns about the serious delays in the Franco-German-Spanish “Future Combat Air System” (FCAS) project, which was to be the successor of Rafale.

The FCAS is now predicted to enter service no earlier than 2045 or 2050. The French defense procurement agency has notified Dassault Aviation and its major equipment suppliers, Thales, Safran, and MBDA, of the fifth round of the Rafale production contract.

The FCAS is supposed to be a fifth-generation-plus aircraft. It is funded by some of the major financial and technologically advanced European countries. They have found hurdles in proceeding forward.

Also, the FCAS could cost two to three times as much as a Rafale. France has chosen to bank on its indigenous 4.5-generation Rafale, albeit with upgrades.

India has a fifth-generation aircraft program, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), which has already been divided into two phases, partially stealth and stealth. What lessons and options are there for India?

FCAS Program

The FCAS is a tri-nation (France, Germany, and Spain) fifth-generation-plus aircraft project that is a continuation of an earlier project with a similar name between the UK and France.

Dassault Aviation, Airbus (Germany), and Indra Sistemas (Spain) are the co-developers. The FCAS will consist of a Next-Generation Weapon System (NGWS) as well as other air assets in the future operational battlespace. The aircraft will also act as the remote carrier-cum-controller vehicle for swarming drones.

Dassault will be the prime contractor for the Next Generation Fighter (NGF), Airbus will lead the development of accompanying remote carrier vehicles and cloud communications, and Safran Aircraft Engines will evolve the aero-engine and its integration along with MTU Aero Engines. Thales and MBDA will undertake significant developmental work.

FCAS will have aircraft carrier operations capability. It will follow the System of Systems approach. Initial work began in 2017.

In June 2023, Belgium became an observer and may join the program by mid-2025. It will replace the French Rafale, Germany’s Typhoons, and Spain’s EF-18 Hornets around 2040. The demonstrator test flight is expected around 2027. The delay in the program has now been openly acknowledged, pushing alternative choices.

F3 & F4 Rafale

The Rafale is considered a 4.5-generation fighter similar in class to the Eurofighter Typhoon. It has forward-hemisphere stealth and super-cruise capability.

IAF Rafale aircraft are highly customized with some India-specific modifications. Essentially, they are of F3-plus standard. The F3R standard was validated in 2018 and is currently in place on French Rafales.

Development of the F4 standard began in 2019. The standard improved on-board processing, external connectivity, MBDA’s MICA medium-range air-to-air missile, and upgrade of the Thales Spectra self-defence system.

The radar and sensor upgrades facilitate the detection of airborne stealth targets at long range. There are also improved capabilities in the helmet-mounted display. With improved communications equipment, it is also more effective in network-centric warfare.

Flight tests began in 2021, and the first F4-standard aircraft was delivered in 2023. The FASF aircraft are planned to be will be upgraded to this standard. UAE is the first foreign customer of F4.

The qualification of the F4.1 standard was announced in March 2023. The F4.2 standard is expected by 2025. They will spend $1.51 billion to upgrade the Rafale to F4 standard between 2024 and 2026. The Rafale is planned to be the FASF’s primary combat aircraft until at least 2040.

Super Rafale F5 – Cutting-Edge Capabilities

Until FCAS becomes operational, France will need a top-end fighter for both aerial and nuclear deterrence. The current Rafale top preparation standard is the F4.

Unlike Germany, one of the partners in the FCAS program, the French have not acquired the American F-35. The F5 version will be developed under the French government’s military planning program 2024-2030.

It is the Plan ‘B’ given FCAS delays. Dassault and its partners are already working on the F5 standard, which will be ready by around 2030. The upgrade will be incremental. F5 will share some features with the next-generation European aircraft. The F5 standard will have new sensors, armaments, and a faster and more secure ability to communicate and collaborate.

The aircraft will have a much better electronic warfare suite, with advanced capability for Suppression or Destruction of Enemy Defences (SEAD/DEAD), using the latest jamming systems and anti-radiation weapons.

It will be a further evolution of the existing SPECTRA EW and jamming system that combines radar jamming, ECCM, infrared, and radar decoys and will also create a “defensive bubble” around the aircraft.

There is a proposal to have on-board and air-released systems for saturation of the electromagnetic spectrum to deny combat access to adversaries. These will be applied simultaneously in coordination with surface forces under multi-domain conditions.

F5 will also introduce fiber-optic cabling. All this will greatly improve penetration in contested environments.

The Rafale F5 will also act as a sensor truck with data fusion and processing abilities that allow it to take on a tactical flying command post role, a job that is evolving in the USA’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD).

Futuristic surface attack and anti-ship missiles are being developed, and so are long-range air-to-air weapons. The F5 will also be modified to carry the Anglo-French Future Cruise Missile (FCM) and Future Anti-Ship Missile (FASM). Thales RBE2 XG radar is planned for F5.

The “Super Rafale” will also be modified to carry hypersonic nuclear-guided missiles known as “ASN4G,” which will replace the nuclear-guided ASMPA missile as France’s deterrence capability. Dassault calls it an Air Combat System within a system rather than just a fighter jet like the current Rafale F4 variant is.

F5 deliveries were initially planned to start in 2029, but discussions are underway to deliver them starting in 2027. The F5 standard will give combat proficiency while waiting for the Next Generation Weapon System within the FCAS program.

Specialized munitions and drones will be developed for various kinetic and non-kinetic roles. These will give it greater long-range strike and combat capability. By 2024, it is planned to integrate a loyal unmanned wingman on the lines being evolved in the European nEUROn combat drone program. The loyal wingman concept is being developed by most major countries, including India.

The nEUROn stealth UCAV made its maiden flight ten years ago. This success demonstrates # DassaultAviation’s proficiency as a prime contractor and an architect-integrator for complex systems at the head of an international cooperation program.

France will reportedly invest the equivalent of $6.75 billion into the Rafale aircraft program between 2023 and 2026 and has earmarked an additional $5.87 billion after 2026. France continues to see a market for Rafale F5 for those unable to acquire the F-35 for geo-political reasons.

The Rafale is distinct from other European fighters because it is almost entirely built by one country, with Dassault (airframe), Thales (avionics and EW), and Safran (aero-engine) covering all the major systems.

Rafale also has a carrier-based maritime variant. French officials had reportedly also considered equipping the Rafale to launch small satellites.

Global Rafale Sales

The Rafale entered service with the French Navy in 2004 and the FASF in 2006 and has seen action in Afghanistan, Libya, Mali, Iraq, and Syria.

The numbers built to date are around 260. The new order will take the total number of Rafale in the French armed forces to 234. Rafale export orders currently stand at 297, including India (36), Egypt (55), Qatar (36), Greece (24), United Arab Emirates (80), Indonesia (42), and Croatia (24) as current foreign customers.

The FASF new order will keep Dassault Aviation Rafale’s production line active for the next 10 years.

Could F5 Be a Choice for India?

Indian military’s fighter aircraft fleets currently face two major issues. The first is the shortage of fighter aircraft numbers with IAF, which is down to 31 vis-à-vis authorized 42 squadrons, and the Indian Navy (IN) requires additional carrier-based aircraft.

While IAF has already committed to over 200 of each of LCA Mk1 and Mk2 variants, their development and induction will take a long time to bridge the capability and numbers gap.

Rafale is one of the contenders of IAF’s 114 aircraft proposal. Rafale-M has reportedly been short-listed by the Indian Navy. IAF already has the infrastructure for two more Rafale squadrons.

The second issue is that of the fifth-generation fighter. China already has 150 J-20 fifth-generation aircraft, and PLA Air Force plans to have 400 of these by 2027.

Pakistan has already approached China to acquire J-31 fifth-generation aircraft and is talking of 2029 timelines. India’s homemade fifth-generation fighter AMCA is likely to have its first flight around 2029 and may be inducted as early as 2035. The level of stealth is still to evolve. In any case, the development has been split into two phases: Mk1 and Mk2.

The US is not offering their F-35 fifth-generation fighter. Even if they do, they could have serious strings attached to that decision. India cannot afford to put any more eggs in the Russian basket. India has a choice of joining the FCAS program, but that has now been considerably delayed.

A scenario that then evolves is that India could consider the Make-in-India Rafale to meet both IAF and IN requirements. The new purchase could be of F4 standard. There could be a caveat for commitment to upgrade to F5 standard.

The rough idea of developmental costs is already in the open. It will allow India’s strategic community and policymakers to do a cost-to-capability analysis. It will hasten to plug the capability gap.

It will not compete with India’s indigenous AMCA program, which can be accelerated in parallel. France has been a tried and tested friend. The French president will be the Guest of Honour on Republic Day 2024.

India has been flying French combat aircraft since the 1950s. Fighter aircraft options and costs are complex matrices. To begin with, it is worthwhile to start an internal dialogue within India’s aviation community.

 

[Hydra]

With 400 J-20 Stealth Fighters In Arsenal, Can India Explore F5 ‘Super Rafales’ To Challenge PLAAF Jets?

By Air Marshal Anil Chopra

French Air and Space Force (FASF) has just ordered 42 Rafale jets for around $5.5 billion. The purchase comes amidst French lawmakers’ concerns about the serious delays in the Franco-German-Spanish “Future Combat Air System” (FCAS) project, which was to be the successor of Rafale.

The FCAS is now predicted to enter service no earlier than 2045 or 2050. The French defense procurement agency has notified Dassault Aviation and its major equipment suppliers, Thales, Safran, and MBDA, of the fifth round of the Rafale production contract.

The FCAS is supposed to be a fifth-generation-plus aircraft. It is funded by some of the major financial and technologically advanced European countries. They have found hurdles in proceeding forward.

Also, the FCAS could cost two to three times as much as a Rafale. France has chosen to bank on its indigenous 4.5-generation Rafale, albeit with upgrades.

India has a fifth-generation aircraft program, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), which has already been divided into two phases, partially stealth and stealth. What lessons and options are there for India?

FCAS Program

The FCAS is a tri-nation (France, Germany, and Spain) fifth-generation-plus aircraft project that is a continuation of an earlier project with a similar name between the UK and France.

Dassault Aviation, Airbus (Germany), and Indra Sistemas (Spain) are the co-developers. The FCAS will consist of a Next-Generation Weapon System (NGWS) as well as other air assets in the future operational battlespace. The aircraft will also act as the remote carrier-cum-controller vehicle for swarming drones.

Dassault will be the prime contractor for the Next Generation Fighter (NGF), Airbus will lead the development of accompanying remote carrier vehicles and cloud communications, and Safran Aircraft Engines will evolve the aero-engine and its integration along with MTU Aero Engines. Thales and MBDA will undertake significant developmental work.

FCAS will have aircraft carrier operations capability. It will follow the System of Systems approach. Initial work began in 2017.

In June 2023, Belgium became an observer and may join the program by mid-2025. It will replace the French Rafale, Germany’s Typhoons, and Spain’s EF-18 Hornets around 2040. The demonstrator test flight is expected around 2027. The delay in the program has now been openly acknowledged, pushing alternative choices.

F3 & F4 Rafale

The Rafale is considered a 4.5-generation fighter similar in class to the Eurofighter Typhoon. It has forward-hemisphere stealth and super-cruise capability.

IAF Rafale aircraft are highly customized with some India-specific modifications. Essentially, they are of F3-plus standard. The F3R standard was validated in 2018 and is currently in place on French Rafales.

Development of the F4 standard began in 2019. The standard improved on-board processing, external connectivity, MBDA’s MICA medium-range air-to-air missile, and upgrade of the Thales Spectra self-defence system.

The radar and sensor upgrades facilitate the detection of airborne stealth targets at long range. There are also improved capabilities in the helmet-mounted display. With improved communications equipment, it is also more effective in network-centric warfare.

Flight tests began in 2021, and the first F4-standard aircraft was delivered in 2023. The FASF aircraft are planned to be will be upgraded to this standard. UAE is the first foreign customer of F4.

The qualification of the F4.1 standard was announced in March 2023. The F4.2 standard is expected by 2025. They will spend $1.51 billion to upgrade the Rafale to F4 standard between 2024 and 2026. The Rafale is planned to be the FASF’s primary combat aircraft until at least 2040.

Super Rafale F5 – Cutting-Edge Capabilities

Until FCAS becomes operational, France will need a top-end fighter for both aerial and nuclear deterrence. The current Rafale top preparation standard is the F4.

Unlike Germany, one of the partners in the FCAS program, the French have not acquired the American F-35. The F5 version will be developed under the French government’s military planning program 2024-2030.

It is the Plan ‘B’ given FCAS delays. Dassault and its partners are already working on the F5 standard, which will be ready by around 2030. The upgrade will be incremental. F5 will share some features with the next-generation European aircraft. The F5 standard will have new sensors, armaments, and a faster and more secure ability to communicate and collaborate.

The aircraft will have a much better electronic warfare suite, with advanced capability for Suppression or Destruction of Enemy Defences (SEAD/DEAD), using the latest jamming systems and anti-radiation weapons.

It will be a further evolution of the existing SPECTRA EW and jamming system that combines radar jamming, ECCM, infrared, and radar decoys and will also create a “defensive bubble” around the aircraft.

There is a proposal to have on-board and air-released systems for saturation of the electromagnetic spectrum to deny combat access to adversaries. These will be applied simultaneously in coordination with surface forces under multi-domain conditions.

F5 will also introduce fiber-optic cabling. All this will greatly improve penetration in contested environments.

The Rafale F5 will also act as a sensor truck with data fusion and processing abilities that allow it to take on a tactical flying command post role, a job that is evolving in the USA’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD).

Futuristic surface attack and anti-ship missiles are being developed, and so are long-range air-to-air weapons. The F5 will also be modified to carry the Anglo-French Future Cruise Missile (FCM) and Future Anti-Ship Missile (FASM). Thales RBE2 XG radar is planned for F5.

The “Super Rafale” will also be modified to carry hypersonic nuclear-guided missiles known as “ASN4G,” which will replace the nuclear-guided ASMPA missile as France’s deterrence capability. Dassault calls it an Air Combat System within a system rather than just a fighter jet like the current Rafale F4 variant is.

F5 deliveries were initially planned to start in 2029, but discussions are underway to deliver them starting in 2027. The F5 standard will give combat proficiency while waiting for the Next Generation Weapon System within the FCAS program.

Specialized munitions and drones will be developed for various kinetic and non-kinetic roles. These will give it greater long-range strike and combat capability. By 2024, it is planned to integrate a loyal unmanned wingman on the lines being evolved in the European nEUROn combat drone program. The loyal wingman concept is being developed by most major countries, including India.

The nEUROn stealth UCAV made its maiden flight ten years ago. This success demonstrates # DassaultAviation’s proficiency as a prime contractor and an architect-integrator for complex systems at the head of an international cooperation program.

France will reportedly invest the equivalent of $6.75 billion into the Rafale aircraft program between 2023 and 2026 and has earmarked an additional $5.87 billion after 2026. France continues to see a market for Rafale F5 for those unable to acquire the F-35 for geo-political reasons.

The Rafale is distinct from other European fighters because it is almost entirely built by one country, with Dassault (airframe), Thales (avionics and EW), and Safran (aero-engine) covering all the major systems.

Rafale also has a carrier-based maritime variant. French officials had reportedly also considered equipping the Rafale to launch small satellites.

Global Rafale Sales

The Rafale entered service with the French Navy in 2004 and the FASF in 2006 and has seen action in Afghanistan, Libya, Mali, Iraq, and Syria.

The numbers built to date are around 260. The new order will take the total number of Rafale in the French armed forces to 234. Rafale export orders currently stand at 297, including India (36), Egypt (55), Qatar (36), Greece (24), United Arab Emirates (80), Indonesia (42), and Croatia (24) as current foreign customers.

The FASF new order will keep Dassault Aviation Rafale’s production line active for the next 10 years.

Could F5 Be a Choice for India?

Indian military’s fighter aircraft fleets currently face two major issues. The first is the shortage of fighter aircraft numbers with IAF, which is down to 31 vis-à-vis authorized 42 squadrons, and the Indian Navy (IN) requires additional carrier-based aircraft.

While IAF has already committed to over 200 of each of LCA Mk1 and Mk2 variants, their development and induction will take a long time to bridge the capability and numbers gap.

Rafale is one of the contenders of IAF’s 114 aircraft proposal. Rafale-M has reportedly been short-listed by the Indian Navy. IAF already has the infrastructure for two more Rafale squadrons.

The second issue is that of the fifth-generation fighter. China already has 150 J-20 fifth-generation aircraft, and PLA Air Force plans to have 400 of these by 2027.

Pakistan has already approached China to acquire J-31 fifth-generation aircraft and is talking of 2029 timelines. India’s homemade fifth-generation fighter AMCA is likely to have its first flight around 2029 and may be inducted as early as 2035. The level of stealth is still to evolve. In any case, the development has been split into two phases: Mk1 and Mk2.

The US is not offering their F-35 fifth-generation fighter. Even if they do, they could have serious strings attached to that decision. India cannot afford to put any more eggs in the Russian basket. India has a choice of joining the FCAS program, but that has now been considerably delayed.

A scenario that then evolves is that India could consider the Make-in-India Rafale to meet both IAF and IN requirements. The new purchase could be of F4 standard. There could be a caveat for commitment to upgrade to F5 standard.

The rough idea of developmental costs is already in the open. It will allow India’s strategic community and policymakers to do a cost-to-capability analysis. It will hasten to plug the capability gap.

It will not compete with India’s indigenous AMCA program, which can be accelerated in parallel. France has been a tried and tested friend. The French president will be the Guest of Honour on Republic Day 2024.

India has been flying French combat aircraft since the 1950s. Fighter aircraft options and costs are complex matrices. To begin with, it is worthwhile to start an internal dialogue within India’s aviation community.

Any surprise deal is expecting for upcoming days?

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Any surprise deal is expecting for upcoming days?

A real surprise cannot be announced in advance.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

A disillusioned opinion

Let's face it: fewer and fewer manufacturers are agreeing to take part in Indian competitions. And they're making it known. It's far too complicated, and Make In India is not restrictive, it's omnipresent.

So, either they don't compete at all, or they compete within certain limits, to show their products to the end user, and then they leave, hoping that the end user (IAF, Indian Army, Indian Navy, etc.) will put pressure on the authorities to reach a mutual agreement between the governments.

This is what happened, the hard way, with the MRCA, which ended up selling 36 Rafale G2Gs (instead of 126 under the MII, which didn't even have that name at the time).

This is also what happened with the P75i, which is of no interest to ANY manufacturer (perhaps the beleaguered Russians?), and which will eventually lead to a 2nd tranche of Scorpène G2Gs.

This is what happened with the Rafale M, and it's interesting to see that it was the end user (the Indian Navy) that pushed for the cancellation of the basic procedure (the purchase of the LCA Tejas, and not an international competition this time) to open up a restricted competition, which will lead to the purchase of a GtG.

And that's exactly what I think Dassault is trying to do in India. They probably need to have their cake and eat it too, but they need to keep a way out.

And frankly, given India's requirements under the MII, it's literally better to sell 36 Rafales produced in France than to try and sell 86 or 90 Rafales to be produced locally, with all the constraints that entails.

In fact, DA has already invested a little in India, through technology transfers and offsets under the first contract (which are much less restrictive than under the MII), so they wouldn't lose out completely with a big sale to be assembled locally (especially if you take into account the 40-year support).

But I don't think they'll be busting their asses trying to save the Indians from their own administrative bullshit either. Especially as if the sale of the 26 Rafales to India goes through, they can always stall for a while and try to sell the Indian Air Force another 36 aircraft around 2030 (not counting a likely 2nd order for Rafale Ms around 2032-2035, given that HAL will be incapable of producing anything naval-ready by then).

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

A refuelling mission as seen from the MRTT