If I understand correctly, according to you, the Rafale is on an almost inevitable trajectory towards production in India, but at the cost of weakening the country's combat aviation ambitions. The irony is that under the guise of self-sufficiency, India could lock itself into long-term dependence on the major foreign aerospace powers.
Rafale? Not at all. I was referring to the GTRE-Snecma K10. The engine deal would have helped kill India's own engine program, like the Kabini core on Kaveri going on Ghatak.
The Rafale will do the opposite. A private sector lead integrator combined with learning France's production processes and quality controls. That's a good recipe for success.
M88 technology will go to HAL or any other engine producer like Godrej, not an R&D organization like GTRE.
- The problems with the F404-IN20 for the Tejas Mk1A and the uncertainties over production of the F414-INS6 for the Mk2 show just how vulnerable India is to American decisions. Whether it's a supply chain problem or a deliberate restriction, it's blocking local programmes and reinforcing the need for a sovereign alternative.
While Biden has been malicious, I don't believe either engine will face issues under Trump. The political environment is quite stable until 2029 too.
MRFA has been designed to stand opposed to Russian fighters and American engines, so the focus on European tech.
- The IAF has never hidden its preference for the Rafale. The American hesitation over engines only reinforces this tendency, because it shows the risks associated with over-dependence on the United States. Eurofighter, which could have been an alternative, is too closely tied to the Americans to be a truly independent solution.
Agreed.
- The IAF urgently needs new fighters. It cannot afford to wait for a traditional MRFA procedure that would take a decade. An accelerated solution in the form of a direct purchase and the rapid establishment of an assembly line for the Rafale in India therefore seems inevitable.
The DAP-2020 aims to finish the MRFA tender within 2-3 years. All the procedures were changed and finalized only recently, in preparation for MRFA, TGS etc, international and local tenders.
We have to see if a stopgap of 36 is ordered in the meantime or if the IAF is willing to wait for MRFA.
For now, Mk1A will give us the numbers to maintain strength. As long as the 97-jet Mk1B(?) goes through in a few months, in 2033 we will have about 36-37 squadrons. The IAF is actually hoping to get to 42.5 squadrons by 2035, with Mk2 expected to arrive from 2031 onwards. They had hoped to get MRFA from 2031 too, with a contract assumed for 2028, so the stopgap will bridge that gap easily if a contract is signed in 2027 or 2028, with MRFA in 2030. Or just take 2 extra years to get to 42.5. So 2037.
The IAF needs 42.5 or 45 squadrons to fight a two-front war. The current strength is enough for one front at a time. And it doesn't take into account IN's jets.
- For political and industrial reasons, India is likely to buy a small number of 5th generation aircraft, either F-35s or Su-57s. This would appease the advocates of technological modernisation while concentrating the bulk of resources on the Rafale.
Personally I believe the 5th gen buy might not happen.
If a next gen stopgap is necessary, we will have to look at long term options that can bridge the gap between MRFA and AMCA's successor. 'Cause any new deal after MRFA will take about 8-10 years to deliver from the point of creating fresh requirements.
And you can imagine the stopgap requirement will be centered around whatever China will have released by then. They are yet to show off their next gen ASF, next gen strike fighter, next gen low cost jet, and next gen stealth bomber. Maybe even a next gen interceptor. Too many possibilities.
In any case the IAF is under no pressure to appease anyone. Civilians not connected to the GoI incorrectly think their opinions matter. Bureaucrats are more concerned about the financial and industrial aspects of such programs rather than survivability, because the former is their responsibility. The last big hurdle is the Ministry of Finance who decide whether the country can afford it or not. They are the ones that canceled the A330 contract. Everybody else is irrelevant. As long as the IAF is able to convince bureaucrats about the technical benefits of MRFA, they will back down. I think China's latest jets have taken that pressure off of the IAF.
The PAF will have a narrative advantage on Twitter and Youtube among the masses once J-35 arrives, but that's about it. They are currently claiming the J-10C is superior to the Rafale as well.
- The Tejas Mk2 and the MCAA risk being marginalised because of the cost of these purchases. India would thus find itself in the paradoxical situation of advocating self-sufficiency but continuing to depend on foreign suppliers for its fighter aircraft.
Self-sufficiency will not be achieved until 2035-40. And indigenous programs have been given the first priority, hence the delay in starting MRFA.
We are expected to sign the F414 deal this month and choose the AMCA engine partner sometime this year as well. Dry Kaveri will begin flight testing in Russia this year. Production of F414 will begin in 2028 and full ToT will be completed by 2031.
So when the first MRFA jet is delivered, Mk1A/B will have finished production, and very likely be delivering 16-24 Mk2s a year, Ghatak would be completing its development cycle, and AMCA will be in LSP stage.
- The delay in modernising the Su-30 MKI reflects the Indian tendency to prioritise new purchases to the detriment of local programmes or upgrades.
The MKI's MLU is not strictly delayed, it's going through the standard process for a 6000-hour jet, changed from the earlier standard of 4000 hours. The MLU cycle meant for 2015+ was pushed forward to 2025+ instead. The IAF's MLU cycle is 25-30 years after induction.
The bulk of the purchases were made between 2009 and 2015, so in 2032, the oldest jet would be 23 years old if MLU'd, while the true oldest from 2002 would be 30 years old, which meets the IAF's expectations. And I'm not sure if the ones inducted between 2002 and 2007/08 will be MLU'd 'cause retirement of non-MLU'd jets is expected to begin in 2045, while the first MLU'd jet will be retired in 2055, ie, 23 years later.
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