MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions
- Thread starter Picdelamirand-oil
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The choice is subject to Su-57 entering MRFA and clearing trials. MoD opened up MRFA for 5th gen jets too, and they make the final decision. So that's the sticking point.
Furthermore, Op Sindoor seems to have delayed MRFA. The more time the Russians get, the more polished Su-57 becomes. The more the delay, the lesser the opportunity to reject the Su-57 in trials.
Anything that happens delayed the MRFA, it has been urgent since the beginning of the century. Fortunately, the Rafale programme has 10 years ahead of it, allowing it to wait for India to make up its mind.
GoI is buying time using stopgap purchases. They did that with the first 2 squadrons and then MRCBF. They could buy more time by repeating the first deal again.
For some reason, they are taking a more expensive approach with fewer gains. Maybe the MRFA diplomatic onslaught is a headache they do not wish to deal with at the moment due to the Russia factor. And I guess the govt does not intend to derail their trade negotiations with the US and Europe by finalizing MRFA before its time, so it's probably being used as leverage.
On the other side, the IAF Chief has been advocating for MRFA quite vocally by criticizing the domestic industry.
On the Russian side, a new Mig-35S is expected to go into production this year, and you probably already know the status of Su-57. So the Russians are probably excited to show off in MRFA, and that's definitely a headache for India. A major Indianization package could also draw interest from MoD bureaucrats and DRDO.
And what's much more interesting to note is the same people who are trying to suppress Dassault in France are the same people who have significant influence over the Opposition in India. So it's in the interest of the govt to delay MRFA until things move more in their favor, particularly the election in 2029. Some massive social changes are coming up in 2027. And Rafale has been a political hot potato since 2016. If it wasn't for Trump coming to power, we would have seen a repeat of the RaGa-Rafale controversy after the MRCBF deal too.
What goi thinking? More delay in mmrca more obsolete is iaf becoming.
The IAF have achieved overkill vs PAF, which means we do not have an immediate need for more numbers. They are financially not ready to catch up either.
PLAAF isn't ready to deal with the IAF due to flight constraints over Tibet alongside their lack of bases. All they can do is use standoff munitions and we have sufficient defenses to deal with that. Neither side has the ability to breach each others' defenses in depth today, so missile war primarily. As long as we continue deploying more SAMs against China, we will be fine.
So a second stopgap can make up for any immediate shortfalls by the end of the decade while LCAs begin arriving in large numbers over the next few years.
@Picdelamirand-oil @Herciv @Amarante @Bon Plan @A Person
Here's the MO that the West used against Russia to turn Bangladesh into India's Ukraine.
We are lucky that the BAF is still friendly with India. If they were anything like the AFU, things would have been very different.
After the coup against Hasina was successful, a coup against the army chief was foiled by India.
A second coup against the chief could be in the works.
Had Modi dealt with Yunus' skirmish plan aggressively, spin doctors in the West would have turned Modi into the invader, like they did with Putin.
You can see why the Western-backed coups and the insufficient support from the West against Pakistan for Sindoor can play a part in slowing down MRFA for now.
Here's the MO that the West used against Russia to turn Bangladesh into India's Ukraine.
We are lucky that the BAF is still friendly with India. If they were anything like the AFU, things would have been very different.
After the coup against Hasina was successful, a coup against the army chief was foiled by India.
A second coup against the chief could be in the works.
Had Modi dealt with Yunus' skirmish plan aggressively, spin doctors in the West would have turned Modi into the invader, like they did with Putin.
You can see why the Western-backed coups and the insufficient support from the West against Pakistan for Sindoor can play a part in slowing down MRFA for now.
IAF had achieved superiority over pak because of our ground based air defense and superior stand of capabilities with respect to Pakistani ground based air defense. The day pak aquire a decent SAM system like Patriot or iris system we will loss that edge overnight with current air fleet.
People who are saying about money & pak cannot afford such toys should know this ,they are the one who was ready to eat grass for nuke and they did it. They already increased the defense budget to 2.1% ,excluding the pension expenditure.
Iris and patriot won't be able to save them. They will have to make their own version of the akashteer if they want to compete with us. The iris and hisar systems are good short range ad systems that the Pakistanis can acquire but they will be still be overwhelmed. The real issue is shutting down Pakistani AEWCS. We will have to mass invest in swarm drones, loitering munitions and fibre optic based drones.
I think the main reason is the GoI's low appetite for big ticket purchases. The 8th Pay Commision is around the corner and the pension bill is set to rise. They likely want to keep fiscal deficit under control.
CDS Rawat was clearly echoing the govt's thinking when he batted for staggered military acquisitions across multiple batches, instead of one large contract. This approach may reduce costs in the short-term but greatly reduces our leverage when negotiating pricing and deliveries with global OEMs.
Everybody in the defense industry knows that MRFA (as it is currently structured) will go to Rafale. DA wouldn't be making all these investments in local production otherwise.
If the F-35 and Su-57 were brought into the picture now, it'd be counterproductive. The technical and commercial requirements in the RFP would have to be changed all over again.
Imo, there's just no way LM/Sukhoi would agree to the 50% ToT mandate wrt their top of the line 5G jets. So we're probably better off starting a new contest.
That said, I don't see the GoI signing off on two deals for Rafale and Su-57/F-35 in one go either.
There's enough going around for the GoI without curtailing defence expenditure. This government is sitting on a pile of cash.
You think they'd have reformed the Income Tax slabs & raised exemption if that wasn't the case ?
That's coz the present government is extremely stingy when it comes to spending on non development oriented programs like defence. Look at the infrastructure & Rly budgets for the love of God.
They're pouring money into it like there's no tomorrow & now have reached a saturation point as far as capacities go .
Let me be clear this government is not at all interested on spending in defence beyond the bare essentials & I mean the bare essentials . If after 11 years of observing their antics if that's not clear , then there's no hope it will be for people determined to believe otherwise.
Depends on whether DA is willing to share their source codes which they won't not unless we pay them billions which we being penny pinchers that too in a government headed by a bania , won't.
If the 100 million USD charged by Naval Group to integrate just one class of Indian make torpedo onto the Scorpene is any indication , DA can be expected to charge anywhere between 100-200 million to integrate just one Indian made missile onto the Rafales.
15 such missiles will take the bill to 1.5-3.0 billion USD. Now while we could've struck such a deal in our favor in 2016 by squeezing DA given there weren't any takers for it then, we can kiss any such plans to do so now good bye.
Sukhoi will agree to anything we ask them for & then back away. That's been the Russian & French MO except that in case of Russia we can integrate our systems even without their express permissions which we won't or can't do so in case of France or the US.
If the Su-57 comes , it'd be thru a G2G deal . It's not going to be part of any competition for reasons you've given & for the simple reason speed is of the essence here.
An MRFA competition going thru the same rigmarole like the last time is the enemy of quick induction . I mean how is this even a question & not apparent .
It'd not attract CAATSA as the deal pre dates the legislation. However we'd have to buy a ton of armaments from the US to prevent Dolund from blowing his top & throwing king size tantrums.
However given the war in Ukraine how will their delivery schedules be considered reliable when we've yet to get deliveries of 2 regiments of the S-400 ?! It's already been delayed by 2 years. Apparently it's supposed to come next year & even that's tentative.
Then there's the issue of the Russians using Chinese components. For us to identify all those components & get substitutes takes time , a luxury we don't enjoy today.
Frankly I don't see how we're getting either the Su-57 in the time we want or the F-35 for reasons outlined earlier or even the Rafales with the kind of mindset we have especially as far as the latter is concerned.
They will go broke long before they can buy Western SAMs in the numbers they need. Supporting Pakistan financially is quickly becoming untenable even for rich countries.
Anyway, they need to do things on their own from here on out.
The f-35,su-57 and rafale complement each other. They literally fit different roles.
Why didn't you throw in the F-15s in the mix ? That'd made your post even more credible not that it isn't so already.
That may play a part, but doesn't make sense. Even if MRFA is a big ticket purchase, it can still be divided into two tranches of orders with 3 squadrons in each tranche followed by three more as options. Money goes out in tranches of 3 squadrons each.
They seem to have used the large order as an excuse to push back. In fact, the govt was all for a GTG for 90 jets MII before RaGa got hold of the mic.
With caste census and delimitation in the works, the govt's surgically removing every single avenue of attack the Opposition can muster before 2029.
Haven't you noticed that pretty much all big-ticket import programs have been killed ever since CAATSA came into force? Only P-75I and MRCBF have gone through due to critical need, and both started before CAATSA, and both were to be sourced from the western camp, and both did not have a direct competitor from the eastern camp. This is not about aatmanirbharta either. The govt's definitely under some form of coercion from both eastern and western camps and India seems to have decided to play the game by not playing at all. MRFA has players from both camps.
As for ToT, LM is unlikely to agree, but Sukhoi's offering more than 50%.
If the MRFA objective changes to 5th gen, then there won't be a two-deal split. Basically, MRFA is happening, but the competitors are fluid (F-35, Su-57, KF-21) along with the timing of the deal (2029+ shortlist/victory). There is a chance for 2 more Rafales to bridge the gap, but whichever jet wins the competition will see a govt-sponsored MII (greater technology focus) instead of the MRCBF's Dassault-sponsored MII (greater financial focus).
Dassault's new presence and Sukhoi's existing presence gives them the advantage in India. With Typhoon no longer a realistic competitor, the next more dangerous challenge for Rafale is the Su-57. We can say for sure Rafale cannot compete financially with the Su-57, so the IAF has to reduce the tender to a SV situation to prevent cost coming into the picture. It gets even worse for the Rafale if Sukhoi tie up with DRDO for Indian avionics.
At S25bn+, the PM is probably finding it hard to justify the cost of MRFA to his coalition partners. One of his alliance partners, in particular, has been extracting their pound of flesh (building a new city, etc). This may not have been accounted for pre-2024. And I'd say the tax breaks were more of a political compulsion than economic stimulus. The feisty FM didn't just have a change of heart overnight.
Frankly, they've been attempting to change things. Some attempts like Agniveer have succeeded (as we've seen in Op. Sindoor) while others like a non-lapseable defence fund and tri-service integration have been hanging afire. The ultimate goal of all these initiatives would have been to free up funds for capital modernization. That's about as far as GoI will go. I don't think they would increase the defence budget by a lot.
Wasn't source code transfer specified in the MMRCA RfP all those years ago? If not, I'd be amazed at the IAFs lack of foresight. Anyway, negotiating ToT of any kind hasn't been our strongest suit till date. It'd be tragic if we didn't get those source codes after putting down over S15 billion for 62 Rafales.
We'd have to make it worth their while in terms of minimum order quantity, imo. For DA, that's 100 units. For Sukhoi, who knows. Piecemeal purchases aren't going to help. In return, we should insist on sovereign guarantees on key items. Easier said than done though.
I doubt those alliance partners care a damn about defence either way unless they don't get their way. Besides I don't buy thus logic at all. Leaderji had 2 full terms with a simple majority . How come he didn't go in for this deal then ?
What political compulsion do you see ? This tax break came after the general elections or even the state elections in Haryana & Maharashtra . The next big elections are in Bihar towards the end of this year & TN & WB next year.
Agniveer is another exercise in penny pinching masquerading as rationalising the numbers of the armed forces. Our security establishment should officially be planning to cater to 4.5 fronts , of which the 2.5 fronts are from the past . Now add BD & Myanmar to the mix . However we're not even geared up for the 2.5 front we face.
Besides if Leaderji is so keen on rationalization of the numbers , why didn't he or his Man Friday do anything about the RR ? Ideally they should be part of the internal security grid reporting to the home ministry. Yet they're budgeted under the Defence Ministry with the IA being fully in charge of them & thereby CI in the valley.
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Apparently source codes weren't part of the MMRCA tender. A.P. Matheswaran or whoever was involved in drafting the tender was busy scratching his front & backside ruminating about whether MMRCA ought to SE or TE & how to keep the Russians out in order not to be strategically dependent on them .
What ACM A.P.Singh is doing can be described best as having 20:20 vision in hindsight. It's only now the IAF / MoD has woken up to the possibility of getting those source codes.
As far as the Su-57 goes I'm seeing tweets the Su-57 which participated in the AI-25 was grounded in Iran due to a technical failure all this while . When the required spares came from Russia some few days back , the FA took off & landed once again due to some technical error. It's still in Iran as we speak. Makes for a wonderful advertisement about the FA & its availability.
Just so we don't have sweetie gloating apparently the OPEX for 52 F-35s in Netherlands came to 750 million USD for FY -25. Makes for real cheerful reading.
Akshteer i think is network system withh different SAM components, in that case I believe it's a software driven network. Pakistan can do the same with some programmers with the SAM they had.
They will have to do that. Right now they have a more integrated air force. We have more integrated air defence.