La France réfléchit à la vente de quatre Rafale Marine d'occasion en Inde. Le Premier ministre indien Narendra Modi est attendu en France très prochainement.
www.latribune.fr
For several months now, France has been studying the sale of used Rafale Marines to encourage the signing of a new contract with India. Dassault Aviation is currently participating in two tenders in India, one for the air force (114 aircraft), the other for the navy (up to 57 aircraft in several batches). In particular, the Indian Navy is to equip its first "Made in India" aircraft carrier, the 262-meter INS Vikrant, which is scheduled to enter service in 2023. As part of this tender, the Rafale Marine carried out very successful tests in January in Goa on a land platform. The French Navy was able to demonstrate all its expertise in naval aviation (landing) and convinced the Indians of the Rafale Marine's performance. This aircraft would also give the Indians a uniform fleet between the Rafale Air and the Rafale Marine.
According to corroborating sources, the sale of four used Rafale-Marines with the F3R standard is likely to give France a competitive advantage over the Americans. These four recently upgraded aircraft could be quickly put into service on the Indian aircraft carrier. The Rafale Marine is well-suited to the Indian carrier's configuration in terms of size: it can easily use the elevators of the INS Vikrant. This is not quite the case for its American rival, the Boeing F-18, which fits snugly into the elevators of the Indian aircraft carrier (across). As for the F-18, it has not completely finished its tests, which began last December. After some logistical setbacks, it should resume testing in May. India could make its decision by the end of the year for 26 aircraft, including two two-seater Air Force aircraft dedicated to training.
Capability gaps
The sale of used Rafales poses a number of problems for the armed forces, which remain insufficiently equipped in terms of capabilities. This is particularly the case with the Rafale in the air force, which is struggling to fulfil all missions in a geopolitical conflict context. International tensions have highlighted the capability shortcomings of a country like France, which aspires to play a role as an arbiter but also to participate in coercive missions on the international scene. Before the conflict in Ukraine and before France's willingness to sell four used Rafale Marines to India, the navy was already studying a plan to renew its Rafale fleet, the first of which entered service in 2002, while the air force's entered service in 2006.
"We are currently working with the Air Force to see what the consequences of exporting the Rafale to Croatia are, in order to rebuild a five/seven year plan to determine what the Navy needs. Post-LPM, in 25/30, the question will arise, but the format will not change," explained Admiral Pierre Vandier, Chief of Staff of the French Navy, in an interview with La Tribune in July 2021.
Since the delivery of its entire fleet, the Navy has not had any new aircraft. The entire fleet has been upgraded by retrofitting. "I see that there will be a scissor effect around 2030-2035: the combination of retrofits and the disappearance of the oldest aircraft may lead to a problem of size, which is 42 aircraft (currently 41)," said the French Navy's chief of staff. Especially since the average age of the air force fleet is diverging from that of the navy, which has also lost four Rafales in operations since its commissioning. "We're going to have a lot more old aircraft compared to the air force. To keep up with the standards, we need to retrofit more aircraft," said Admiral Vandier.
The possible sale of used Rafale to India (10% of the French Navy's fleet), combined with a contract for 26 aircraft, could finally set in motion the Navy's fleet renewal schedule. This would not completely displease the Navy. Provided that a French order is placed concomitantly with a possible contract with India. Clearly, this sale would allow the regeneration of the French Navy's fleet.
Parliamentary concerns
Finally, parliamentarians have expressed concern about the withdrawal of Rafales from the fleets of the armed forces. While deputies Patricia Mirallès (LREM) and Jean-Louis Thiériot (LR) welcomed the export success of the Rafale in a report on high-intensity readiness, "they wish to express their concerns about the consequences for our armed forces of these exports. This equipment is in fact partly taken from the capabilities of our armed forces. Thus, 24 Rafales (12 for Greece and 12 for Croatia) have been taken from the 102 Rafale aircraft in the French air force. By the end of 2024, 27 Rafales will be delivered, followed by 12 more in 2025 to make up for the Greek order. By the end of 2025, the air force will have 117 Rafales instead of the 129 planned in the military programming law (LPM). Armed Forces Minister Florence Parly has pledged to place an order for 12 Rafales to compensate for the sale of used aircraft to Croatia. "But when?" the two deputies question.
"Consequently, the rapporteurs consider it essential to proceed with orders allowing our armed forces to fully restore the capabilities they should have had in the absence of these exports. In the longer term, a fundamental reflection should be carried out by all actors, in order to avoid that exports systematically result in a drawdown of stocks intended for our armed forces", according to the two rapporteurs.
Finally, they believe that the withdrawal of capabilities from armed forces stocks "cannot become a permanent solution, unless it structurally weakens our armed forces. "All avenues must therefore be explored, including those consisting of integrating a predictable quota for exports into public orders for our armed forces, as the Italians do," they emphasize. The new or incoming Minister of the Armed Forces (Gérald Darmanin, or even Sébastien Lecornu or Jean-Michel Blanquer?) will have this priority file on his desk to deal with. This includes both the Rafale file within the armed forces and the Rafale export file, starting with India. This is fortunate, since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be arriving in France very soon. He will be one of the very first foreign leaders to make a state visit to France, if not the first, after Emmanuel Macron's re-election.