Myanmar's military takes power in coup, detains Suu Kyi
- Thread starter Volcano
- Start date
About 37,000 people displaced in Myanmar’s northwest, many have fled into India: UN spokesperson
About 37,000 people, including women and children, are now displaced in Myanmar’s restive northwest and many have fled their homes in anticipation of the current fighting, including into India, a spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said.The UN team in Myanmar “remains deeply concerned over the recent escalation in fighting in the northwest between the Myanmar Military and the local Popular Defence Forces in Chin State, as well as Magway and Sagaing regions,” Associate Spokesperson for the Secretary-General Florencia Soto Nino said at the daily press briefing on Monday.
She said this has led to more people being displaced and the property being destroyed, nine months after the military seized control over the Government of Myanmar on February 1. There have also been worrying reports in recent days of the shelling and burning of more than 160 houses of civilians in the town of Thantlang in western Chin.
“Our humanitarian colleagues say that some 37,000 people, including women and children, are now displaced in the country’s northwest. Many have fled their homes in anticipation of the current fighting, including into India,” Ms Nino said, adding that this is in addition to more than 7,000 people who remain displaced from the previous fighting since December 2019.
The UN team repeats its calls for parties to the conflict to meet their obligations under international humanitarian law to protect civilians and humanitarians, and reiterates that aid workers and their properties should never be a target, she said.
The Myanmar military staged a coup on February 1 this year, nullifying the results of the November 2020 elections and imposed a state of emergency after detaining hundreds of activists, civil servants and politicians, including Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and other leaders of her National League for Democracy (NLD).
The military staged the coup amid its rising friction with the ruling NLD government over the results of the November 8 general election. The NLD had registered a thumping victory in the polls. However, the military had alleged discrepancies in the electoral process.
The democratic transition in Myanmar had taken place in 2011 after decades of military rule.
About 37,000 people displaced in Myanmar’s northwest, many have fled into India: UN spokesperson
There have also been worrying reports in recent days of the shelling and burning of more than 160 houses of civilians in the town of Thantlang in western Chin
On eve of democracy meet, India speaks out on jail for Suu Kyi
Stating that it is “disturbed” by the verdicts relating to Myanmar’s ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi and others, India said Tuesday that the rule of law and the democratic process must be upheld. It said any development that “undermines these processes and accentuates differences is a matter of deep concern”.Suu Kyi was sentenced to a four-year jail term by a Myanmar court which held her guilty of inciting dissent in the first of a series of verdicts. Her sentence was later reduced to two years in jail.
New Delhi’s statement came ahead of the Summit for Democracy, convened by President Joe Biden on December 9 and 10. It will be attended through virtual mode by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Arindam Bagchi, spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs, said: “We are disturbed at the recent verdicts. As a neighbouring democracy, India has been consistently supportive of the democratic transition in Myanmar.”
“We believe that the rule of law and the democratic process must be upheld. Any development that undermines these processes and accentuates differences is a matter of deep concern,” he said.
“It is our sincere hope that keeping their nation’s future in mind, efforts would be made by all sides to advance the path of dialogue,” the spokesperson said.
The MEA statement is significant, more direct than its past statements. Even the evolution of the statements is telling. Myanmar was rocked by massive protests after the military seized power in a coup on February 1 this year. Hundreds of people, including children, were killed in the crackdown against the protesters. Suu Kyi, leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD), was among the key people detained by the military following the coup.
Hours after the coup, the MEA had said it had “noted the developments in Myanmar with deep concern”. “India has always been steadfast in its support to the process of democratic transition in Myanmar. We believe that the rule of law and the democratic process must be upheld. We are monitoring the situation closely,” it had said.
Weeks later, the Indian mission in Yangon tweeted on February 28 that “Embassy of India is deeply saddened by loss of lives in Yangon and other cities of Myanmar today”. This was the day when at least 18 people were killed during protests, according to the United Nations, after security forces opened fire on the crowds.
“We express our heartfelt condolences to families and loved ones of those deceased. We would urge all to exercise restraint and resolve issues through dialogue in a peaceful manner,” the Indian embassy had then said.
New Delhi had steered clear of criticizing the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military, as it has been wary of Beijing’s growing influence and the high stakes involved to maintain peace and security along the India-Myanmar border. India’s statements so far have been based on pragmatism as turmoil has engulfed the neighbour.
New Delhi feels that instead of condemning the military leadership in Myanmar, it should work with partner countries to lean on the military to work together to resolve their differences in a peaceful and constructive manner.
The China worry
With Washington leaning on Delhi, India finds itself in a tight spot on Myanmar. Aware of Beijing’s growing political, military and economic footprint in Myanmar, it does not want to isolate the Nay Pyi Taw regime. Delhi believes it can, with partner countries, engage the junta.After being briefed by the UN Special Envoy Christine Schraner Burgener at the UNSC, India had said in March this year that it remains “deeply concerned that the gains made by Myanmar over the last decades on the path towards democracy, should not get undermined”.
“Restoring democratic order should be the priority of all stakeholders in Myanmar,” India’s Permanent Representative to the UN in New York, T S Tirumurti had said.
Officials say that India shares a land and maritime border with Myanmar and has direct stakes in the maintenance of peace and stability.
And, it needs the Myanmar military’s cooperation in dealing with the insurgent groups, which sometimes take shelter in Myanmar. Leaders of these groups have also taken refuge in China, and with Beijing’s proximity to Yangon, the government in Delhi is aware of the challenges.
In fact, that is the reason, Delhi has engaged with Myanmar through both civilian and military channels. In October last year, Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla and Army chief General M M Naravane had visited Myanmar together, and had met the entire leadership, including top military officers and Suu Kyi.
Officials recalled that in 1988, India had firmly supported the protest groups and students, which were being led by Suu Kyi. But the military put it down, and Delhi was out in the cold.
As the situation along the India-Myanmar border worsened with the insurgency in the North-East, it had to change its strategy and started dealing with the military as well. And soon after, India and Myanmar launched coordinated joint operations against the insurgents in the mid-1990s.
Through the last three decades, even as India cooperated with Myanmar’s military rule, it also nudged it to follow the path towards democratic transition. In fact, it had counselled many Western countries against putting sanctions against the military regime. This, officials feel, had led the military in Myanmar to cosy up to China.
But, in recent months, as Modi met Biden in White House for the bilateral summit in September, the needle moved a little for Delhi.
After the meeting on September 24, the Indo-US joint statement said that the “leaders called for an end of the use of violence, for release of all political detainees, and for a swift return to democracy in Myanmar.”
On the same day, the Quad leaders’ statement said, “We continue to call for the end to violence in Myanmar, the release of all political detainees, including foreigners, engagement in constructive dialogue, and for the early restoration of democracy.”
On eve of democracy meet, India speaks out on jail for Suu Kyi
Suu Kyi was sentenced to a four-year jail term by a Myanmar court which held her guilty of inciting dissent in the first of a series of verdicts. Her sentence was later reduced to two years in jail.
indianexpress.com
Indian state issues identity cards to thousands from Myanmar
Some 8,000 people, mostly Christians who fled the ongoing violence in Myanmar and crossed over to the neighboring Indian state of Mizoram, have been given cards identifying them as residents of the state but without the privileges of citizenship.Authorities in Champhai district completed the profiling of 8,279 Myanmar refugees by the end of February. An estimated 10,000 people fleeing violence-hit Myanmar have sought shelter in the district, according to government figures.
About 30,000 Myanmar people including many children have taken shelter in Christian-majority Mizoram since February 2021 when in the Myanmar military launched a coup that deposed the elected government.
Sources in the Mizoram Home Department in state capital Aizawl said the state's 11 districts have been asked to issue identity cards to Myanmar nationals living in Indian territory.
"The exercise is to help provide relief materials. The identity cards will actually segregate them from the natives. The foreigners will not get other citizenship rights like voting, but they can avail themselves of health facilities and their children can study in specially arranged makeshift schools," an official said.
Mizoram Chief Minister Zoramthanga told the legislative house last week that 24,289 Myanmar citizens have taken shelter in Mizoram. However, unofficial reports said the number could be more than 30,000.
Most people who crossed over to Mizoram are Christians and have ethnic affinities with some tribes in Mizoram.
Church leaders recently said the newborn babies of recent arrivals will be treated as Christians for all practical purposes but cannot get any document issued for their baptism.
More people are expected to cross over to India amid increased armed clashes between the Myanmar army and the Chinland Defence Force and Chin National Army.
Zoramthanga said the federal government has not officially recognized the Myanmar citizens in India as refugees and no extra funds have been provided for their relief and rehabilitation.
However, some special assistance packages have been arranged by both the state and central governments to help the recent arrivals.
Meanwhile, 29 students who fled Myanmar appeared for the examination of grades 10 and 12 conducted by the Mizoram Board of School Education, sources said.
First doses of Covid-19 vaccines have also been administered to over 1,500 Myanmar people.
The federal Home Ministry last year gave directions to the chief secretaries of four northeastern states — Mizoram, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur — not to "entertain" Myanmar refugees. The four states share a 1,600-kilometer porous border with Myanmar.
A letter issued by the Home Ministry reiterated that state governments have no authority to grant refugee status to any foreigner and India is not a signatory of the UN Refugee Convention of 1951 and its 1967 Protocol.
India is doing a tightrope walk as it needs the cooperation of the Myanmar junta to fight various insurgent groups run by Naga and other tribal communities from Myanmar. India has condemned any use of violence in Myanmar.
"We believe that the rule of law should prevail. We stand for the restoration of democracy in Myanmar,” Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Arindam Bagchi said last year.
Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla visited Myanmar in December 2021 and provided Covid vaccines and other assistance to the military regime.
Indian state issues identity cards to thousands from Myanmar - UCA News
Recent arrivals in Mizoram fleeing the war-torn country are not officially recognized as refugees
www.ucanews.com
(western companies leave, seems like US sanctions “Iran style” are in tubes, ready for launching)
(March15)
Burma: Thai Group Takes Over Yadana Gas Field After TotalEnergies Pulls Out
Thai energy giant PTTEP is to take over the operation of Burma's Yadana gas field after Chevron and TotalEnergies pulled out in January, the company said in a statement.
The US and French energy groups pulled out of the Southeast Asian country, bowing to pressure from human rights NGOs after last year's military coup.
The Yadana field produces about 6 billion cubic metres of gas a year, about 70% of which is exported to Thailand and 30% supplied to Burma's state-owned MOGE for the domestic market. "Following TotalEnergies' decision to withdraw from the Yadana project, PTTEP has been carefully considering the possibility of acting as a successor operator to ensure that there is no disruption in the supply of natural gas," PTT Exploration and Production Public Company (PTTEP) said in a statement on Monday.
Thailand's state-owned energy group will take control of the operations from July 20, adding that it was of utmost importance to ensure "continuity of gas production and prevent any disruption in energy demand". According to PTTEP, the fields account for about 50% of Burma's gas demand and about 11% of Thailand's.
Power outages
Burma has been plagued by a series of power outages for several weeks, forcing Rangoon residents to queue for water, with the junta blaming rising gas prices since the war in Ukraine and attacks on infrastructure by opponents of the military regime.
The junta has vested interests in large parts of the country's economy, including oil and gas. The NGO Human Rights Watch claims that natural gas projects are the country's main source of foreign exchange earnings, worth over $1 billion a year.
Other international companies, including British American Tobacco and the French renewable energy company Voltalia, have also left Burma. More than a year after the February 1, 2021 coup that toppled Aung San Suu Kyi and ended a 10-year democratic hiatus, Burma remains in chaos. Anti-junta militias have taken up arms against the generals, who are bloodily quelling the protests, with more than 1,600 civilians killed and 11,000 arrested, according to a local human rights association.
(Le Figaro with Agence France Presse - 15 March 2022)
Birmanie : un groupe thaï reprend le champ de gaz de Yadana après le retrait de TotalEnergies - Le Viêt Nam, aujourd'hui
(March15)
Burma: Thai Group Takes Over Yadana Gas Field After TotalEnergies Pulls Out
Thai energy giant PTTEP is to take over the operation of Burma's Yadana gas field after Chevron and TotalEnergies pulled out in January, the company said in a statement.
The US and French energy groups pulled out of the Southeast Asian country, bowing to pressure from human rights NGOs after last year's military coup.
The Yadana field produces about 6 billion cubic metres of gas a year, about 70% of which is exported to Thailand and 30% supplied to Burma's state-owned MOGE for the domestic market. "Following TotalEnergies' decision to withdraw from the Yadana project, PTTEP has been carefully considering the possibility of acting as a successor operator to ensure that there is no disruption in the supply of natural gas," PTT Exploration and Production Public Company (PTTEP) said in a statement on Monday.
Thailand's state-owned energy group will take control of the operations from July 20, adding that it was of utmost importance to ensure "continuity of gas production and prevent any disruption in energy demand". According to PTTEP, the fields account for about 50% of Burma's gas demand and about 11% of Thailand's.
Power outages
Burma has been plagued by a series of power outages for several weeks, forcing Rangoon residents to queue for water, with the junta blaming rising gas prices since the war in Ukraine and attacks on infrastructure by opponents of the military regime.
The junta has vested interests in large parts of the country's economy, including oil and gas. The NGO Human Rights Watch claims that natural gas projects are the country's main source of foreign exchange earnings, worth over $1 billion a year.
Other international companies, including British American Tobacco and the French renewable energy company Voltalia, have also left Burma. More than a year after the February 1, 2021 coup that toppled Aung San Suu Kyi and ended a 10-year democratic hiatus, Burma remains in chaos. Anti-junta militias have taken up arms against the generals, who are bloodily quelling the protests, with more than 1,600 civilians killed and 11,000 arrested, according to a local human rights association.
(Le Figaro with Agence France Presse - 15 March 2022)
Birmanie : un groupe thaï reprend le champ de gaz de Yadana après le retrait de TotalEnergies - Le Viêt Nam, aujourd'hui
(The Irrawaddy, march16)
At the same time, China has nimbly used ASEAN to project its own narratives, with pro-China ASEAN members on both sides of the divide vis-a-vis the junta ensconced in Naypyitaw. While Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia have taken a pro-democracy stance and seek to limit the junta’s role in representing Myanmar in ASEAN, China’s long-term ally Cambodia has adopted the opposite position. Consequently, China leaves the nitty gritty of regional diplomatic niceties to its ASEAN lackeys, while projecting itself as a responsible superpower interested merely in regional stability.
Away from the spotlight however, Beijing has moved to consolidate its influence in the strategically important neighboring country. The Ukraine war now seems to have added to China’s sense of opportunity. Earlier this week, the Myanmar military received a shipment of arms and ammunition, including CH-3 drones, from China. Meanwhile, from March 15, a six-month course in Chinese language will get underway in Kunming for 50 senior members of the Myanmar junta-affiliated Union Solidarity & Development Party (USDP). They will be schooled in the intricacies of not only Mandarin but also the ideological precepts espoused by the Chinese Communist Party. Such initiatives by China are aimed at ensuring influence and control in the long run—i.e., even if in the future some semblance of an election is held in Myanmar, by cultivating political outfits such as the USDP, Beijing will ensure that its diktat continues to run in the country.
On the economic front, too, Nyapyitaw is increasingly dependent upon the behemoth Chinese economy. China has poured resources into the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor which will connect China’s Yunnan Province to strategic ports on the Bay of Bengal, such as Yangon and Mandalay [<– not a port on the Bay! Maybe the author means Kyaukpyu, or Sittwe]. Not only will it boost Chinese manufacturing in its somewhat remote southwestern region, it will advance China’s aim of encircling India through investments into crucial maritime assets on India’s periphery. Other Chinese projects towards this end are the funding of the Yangon-Sittwe Road (which would also provide the shortest overland route to the Indian Ocean from southern China) and assistance to the Tatmadaw in building a naval base in Sittwe—located ominously across the Bay of Bengal from Kolkata, eastern India’s largest megapolis—enabling any maritime force stationed there to threaten India’s eastern seaboard.
Beijing’s dabbling in Myanmar is not a one-off instance of great power politics. It is but one in a string of policy choices designed to seek advantage of instability in any country drifting from the Western world’s narrative in order to occupy any economic, military or political space thus vacated. While the West responds to coups and politico-military crises with outrage and sanctions, Beijing pretends to play along, but does not hesitate to simultaneously cultivate influence and corner economic resources. In Afghanistan, while terrified would-be asylum-seeking Afghans were falling to their deaths off departing US C-130 Hercules planes, the Chinese machinery was stealthily encroaching into the mining sector with an eye on the country’s vast untapped mineral resources—especially Lithium, a crucial resource amidst the impending electric car revolution. While the Russian economy is battered by sanctions, the Chinese seek to broaden the presence of their UnionPay payments mechanism, in the space left by MasterCard and Visa.
And this phenomenon of Beijing using the shadows to project its power is not recent either. During the turbulent years of piracy in the Indian Ocean, amid the chaos in Sudan, while the world sought to protect the sea lanes and merchant shipping, the Chinese made all the right noises, participating in joint naval patrols and deploying vessels to patrol those waters. But Beijing also used the opportunity to invest in Djibouti, establishing a full-fledged naval base near the Horn of Africa, from where the PLA Navy can project its power not only in the Indian Ocean, but also in the Mediterranean, the Black Sea and the Persian Gulf.
Myanmar may be the latest example, but those of Sri Lanka, Maldives, Pakistan, Djibouti and Afghanistan should serve as insights into Chinese strategy and behavior, which usually starts with a political/military/economic crisis, and culminates in that country becoming economically beholden and hopelessly indebted to China, losing its own agency and voice in the international arena.
www.irrawaddy.com
The Dragon Fishes in Myanmar’s Troubled Waters
With the Western world riveted on the Ukraine crisis, the still simmering cauldron of Myanmar presents perfect waters for the Chinese dragon to fish in. Ever since the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s armed forces) usurped Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s fledgling democratic regime on Feb. 1, 2021, Beijing has deftly made its moves in the resource rich country. On the surface, it has appeared to support calls for a return to democracy, but it has also relished Myanmar’s isolation and the consequent shift into China’s grip. It has armed the Tatmadaw and clandestinely, the rebel ethnic armed groups too, resulting in both remaining dependent on Beijing and firmly under its influence.At the same time, China has nimbly used ASEAN to project its own narratives, with pro-China ASEAN members on both sides of the divide vis-a-vis the junta ensconced in Naypyitaw. While Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia have taken a pro-democracy stance and seek to limit the junta’s role in representing Myanmar in ASEAN, China’s long-term ally Cambodia has adopted the opposite position. Consequently, China leaves the nitty gritty of regional diplomatic niceties to its ASEAN lackeys, while projecting itself as a responsible superpower interested merely in regional stability.
Away from the spotlight however, Beijing has moved to consolidate its influence in the strategically important neighboring country. The Ukraine war now seems to have added to China’s sense of opportunity. Earlier this week, the Myanmar military received a shipment of arms and ammunition, including CH-3 drones, from China. Meanwhile, from March 15, a six-month course in Chinese language will get underway in Kunming for 50 senior members of the Myanmar junta-affiliated Union Solidarity & Development Party (USDP). They will be schooled in the intricacies of not only Mandarin but also the ideological precepts espoused by the Chinese Communist Party. Such initiatives by China are aimed at ensuring influence and control in the long run—i.e., even if in the future some semblance of an election is held in Myanmar, by cultivating political outfits such as the USDP, Beijing will ensure that its diktat continues to run in the country.
On the economic front, too, Nyapyitaw is increasingly dependent upon the behemoth Chinese economy. China has poured resources into the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor which will connect China’s Yunnan Province to strategic ports on the Bay of Bengal, such as Yangon and Mandalay [<– not a port on the Bay! Maybe the author means Kyaukpyu, or Sittwe]. Not only will it boost Chinese manufacturing in its somewhat remote southwestern region, it will advance China’s aim of encircling India through investments into crucial maritime assets on India’s periphery. Other Chinese projects towards this end are the funding of the Yangon-Sittwe Road (which would also provide the shortest overland route to the Indian Ocean from southern China) and assistance to the Tatmadaw in building a naval base in Sittwe—located ominously across the Bay of Bengal from Kolkata, eastern India’s largest megapolis—enabling any maritime force stationed there to threaten India’s eastern seaboard.
Beijing’s dabbling in Myanmar is not a one-off instance of great power politics. It is but one in a string of policy choices designed to seek advantage of instability in any country drifting from the Western world’s narrative in order to occupy any economic, military or political space thus vacated. While the West responds to coups and politico-military crises with outrage and sanctions, Beijing pretends to play along, but does not hesitate to simultaneously cultivate influence and corner economic resources. In Afghanistan, while terrified would-be asylum-seeking Afghans were falling to their deaths off departing US C-130 Hercules planes, the Chinese machinery was stealthily encroaching into the mining sector with an eye on the country’s vast untapped mineral resources—especially Lithium, a crucial resource amidst the impending electric car revolution. While the Russian economy is battered by sanctions, the Chinese seek to broaden the presence of their UnionPay payments mechanism, in the space left by MasterCard and Visa.
And this phenomenon of Beijing using the shadows to project its power is not recent either. During the turbulent years of piracy in the Indian Ocean, amid the chaos in Sudan, while the world sought to protect the sea lanes and merchant shipping, the Chinese made all the right noises, participating in joint naval patrols and deploying vessels to patrol those waters. But Beijing also used the opportunity to invest in Djibouti, establishing a full-fledged naval base near the Horn of Africa, from where the PLA Navy can project its power not only in the Indian Ocean, but also in the Mediterranean, the Black Sea and the Persian Gulf.
Myanmar may be the latest example, but those of Sri Lanka, Maldives, Pakistan, Djibouti and Afghanistan should serve as insights into Chinese strategy and behavior, which usually starts with a political/military/economic crisis, and culminates in that country becoming economically beholden and hopelessly indebted to China, losing its own agency and voice in the international arena.
Guest Column | The Dragon Fishes in Myanmar’s Troubled Waters
In Myanmar as elsewhere, Beijing uses the geopolitical shadows to project its power.
www.irrawaddy.com
Talking about Shan State, it coul’d become a “Wa-land”, i been told…
(AsiaTimes, feb.22): UWSA consolidating a new Wa state that will bring Chinese influence near Thailand and set a self-rule model for other ethnic rebels…
asiatimes.com
(AsiaTimes, feb.22): UWSA consolidating a new Wa state that will bring Chinese influence near Thailand and set a self-rule model for other ethnic rebels…
Wa an early winner of Myanmar’s post-coup war
BANGKOK – The anniversary of the Myanmar military’s February 2021 coup has briefly refocused the fickle attentions of the international media with a flurry of “one year on” reporting on popul…
asiatimes.com
(theIrrawaddy, may18)
China is closing in on India after establishing ports at Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota and Colombo in Sri Lanka and soon it will have access to the Indian Ocean from ports in Myanmar. In August 2021, China successfully trialled a cargo run from Myanmar’s Yangon Port all the way to China’s Yunnan Province.
China has a long history of supporting the military rulers of Myanmar by circumventing sanctions. The stakes are made even higher by the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), a portion of the Belt and Road Initiative that runs from Yunnan Province to the Indian Ocean port of Kyaukphyu in western Myanmar.
The concern is that CMEC will enable China’s navy, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), to encroach on India in the Bay of Bengal. It will also allow China’s oil shipments to avoid the Strait of Malacca, which is patrolled by the United States (US) Navy’s Seventh Fleet. While the US and India appear to be at odds over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the two have a shared interest in preventing the PLAN from gaining access to the Indian Ocean.
India is caught in a balancing act between its long-term ally Russia and its long-term adversary China. Over the past few years, the United States has intensified its alliance with India through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and other initiatives. Still, the Ukraine crisis is putting this budding friendship to the test.
By 2030, the PLAN will have 67 new major surface ships and 12 new nuclear-powered submarines, enough to control the Indian Ocean, according to US Naval Intelligence. China is growing its navy so that it can control seas by 2030 and displace the US Navy as the world’s most powerful navy by 2049.
There is concern in New Delhi that China’s threats to India’s maritime domain are increasing, and that India should increase its naval capabilities to counter that. At any one time, there can now be as many as 125 foreign vessels in the Indian Ocean, the most since World War II, according to estimates by India’s navy. Speaking during his first press conference in December 2021, India’s Chief of Naval Staff Admiral R Hari Kumar said that the Indian navy might be tracking up to three PLAN ships at any given moment.
In order to meet the challenge of the PLAN, India needs to build up its naval power. But when it comes to India’s military funding, the Navy always receives only a fraction of the budget it asks for. On average, India spends 15 per cent of its military budget on its navy despite having only three branches of the military, while the US, with six branches, spends 30 per cent on the navy. The amount China spends on the PLAN is not clear. However, China’s total defense spending of US$252 billion is more than three times the US$72.9 billion India spends on its military.
Realizing the need to address that, New Delhi increased the navy budget by 44.53 per cent this year. Currently, the Indian Navy has only 130 vessels, many of which are two decades old. So while the increase in funding is a welcome move in the right direction, the situation is far from resolved.
Preventing China from gaining control of the Indian Ocean may necessitate the US adopting a new Indian Ocean policy and deepening its involvement with India through the QUAD and other initiatives. The US is in a position to coordinate with New Delhi by supporting the development of India’s economic, political, and military power. But Washington will have to evaluate whether India’s ties to Russia outweigh the help that New Delhi can lend the US in countering China. Similarly, India will have to decide if gaining US support against China is worth abandoning its relationship with Russia for.
Yan Naing is the pseudonym for a keen observer of China-Myanmar relations.
www.irrawaddy.com
@_Anonymous_ ?
Myanmar Ports key to China’s Strategy of Controlling Indian Ocean
Yan NaingChina is closing in on India after establishing ports at Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota and Colombo in Sri Lanka and soon it will have access to the Indian Ocean from ports in Myanmar. In August 2021, China successfully trialled a cargo run from Myanmar’s Yangon Port all the way to China’s Yunnan Province.
China has a long history of supporting the military rulers of Myanmar by circumventing sanctions. The stakes are made even higher by the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), a portion of the Belt and Road Initiative that runs from Yunnan Province to the Indian Ocean port of Kyaukphyu in western Myanmar.
The concern is that CMEC will enable China’s navy, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), to encroach on India in the Bay of Bengal. It will also allow China’s oil shipments to avoid the Strait of Malacca, which is patrolled by the United States (US) Navy’s Seventh Fleet. While the US and India appear to be at odds over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the two have a shared interest in preventing the PLAN from gaining access to the Indian Ocean.
India is caught in a balancing act between its long-term ally Russia and its long-term adversary China. Over the past few years, the United States has intensified its alliance with India through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and other initiatives. Still, the Ukraine crisis is putting this budding friendship to the test.
By 2030, the PLAN will have 67 new major surface ships and 12 new nuclear-powered submarines, enough to control the Indian Ocean, according to US Naval Intelligence. China is growing its navy so that it can control seas by 2030 and displace the US Navy as the world’s most powerful navy by 2049.
There is concern in New Delhi that China’s threats to India’s maritime domain are increasing, and that India should increase its naval capabilities to counter that. At any one time, there can now be as many as 125 foreign vessels in the Indian Ocean, the most since World War II, according to estimates by India’s navy. Speaking during his first press conference in December 2021, India’s Chief of Naval Staff Admiral R Hari Kumar said that the Indian navy might be tracking up to three PLAN ships at any given moment.
In order to meet the challenge of the PLAN, India needs to build up its naval power. But when it comes to India’s military funding, the Navy always receives only a fraction of the budget it asks for. On average, India spends 15 per cent of its military budget on its navy despite having only three branches of the military, while the US, with six branches, spends 30 per cent on the navy. The amount China spends on the PLAN is not clear. However, China’s total defense spending of US$252 billion is more than three times the US$72.9 billion India spends on its military.
Realizing the need to address that, New Delhi increased the navy budget by 44.53 per cent this year. Currently, the Indian Navy has only 130 vessels, many of which are two decades old. So while the increase in funding is a welcome move in the right direction, the situation is far from resolved.
Preventing China from gaining control of the Indian Ocean may necessitate the US adopting a new Indian Ocean policy and deepening its involvement with India through the QUAD and other initiatives. The US is in a position to coordinate with New Delhi by supporting the development of India’s economic, political, and military power. But Washington will have to evaluate whether India’s ties to Russia outweigh the help that New Delhi can lend the US in countering China. Similarly, India will have to decide if gaining US support against China is worth abandoning its relationship with Russia for.
Yan Naing is the pseudonym for a keen observer of China-Myanmar relations.
Guest Column | Myanmar Ports key to China’s Strategy of Controlling Indian Ocean
India is threatened with being encircled by a network of China-controlled ports and Beijing’s increasingly powerful navy.
www.irrawaddy.com
(The Irrawaddy, jul.02)
China’s Complicated Game in Myanmar
Veteran author and journalist Bertil Lintner has been reporting on Myanmar for decades. In this wide-ranging interview he talks to The Irrawaddy editor-in-chief Aung Zaw about China’s goals and strategy in Myanmar—including its relations with the National League for Democracy and the ethnic armed groups—the future of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the most likely scenarios for ending the military’s grip on the country.
Fears of escalation after Myanmar air raids near India border
On the afternoon of January 10, Van Bawi Mang, a member of an armed resistance group fighting against the Myanmar military, was resting in his barracks at a camp on the country’s northwestern border with India when a loud explosion jolted him back to the reality of war.He scrambled into a nearby ditch as jet fighters flew overhead, glass shattering with the reverberation of the falling bombs.
The camp, known as Camp Victoria, serves as the headquarters of the Chin National Front (CNF), an ethnic armed organisation that resumed its dormant fight for autonomy after the Myanmar military seized power in a coup in February 2021.
The CNF has also aligned itself with the nationwide pro-democracy movement, fighting alongside newer resistance groups formed in response to the coup.
Even after the jets retreated on January 10, Van Bawi Mang and his comrades spent a sleepless night huddling in ditches and bunkers across the camp, fearing more attacks.
The night passed without further incident but the military struck again the following afternoon. In total, five CNF members were killed in the two attacks and there was significant damage to the camp’s buildings, including housing for families and a medical centre.
The Myanmar military has not issued any statement about the attacks, which come amid a months-long escalation in fighting in Chin State. Although the military has scaled up its use of airstrikes in recent months, the incident marks the first it has aimed at a resistance group’s headquarters.
The attacks not only highlight the generals’ increasingly brazen attempts to root out resistance to their rule, but also their willingness to venture close to the country’s western borders to do so.
Camp Victoria sits adjacent to the Tiau river, which separates Myanmar from the Indian state of Mizoram. The recent attacks violated Indian airspace and soil, according to the CNF, local Mizo organisations, and the international research and advocacy organisation Fortify Rights.
Myanmar Witness, an independent nonprofit that uses open-source data to investigate human rights incidents, found the attacks were an “almost certain breach of Indian airspace” as well as a “likely attack on Indian sovereign territory”.
This claim was also made by the National Unity Government, the Myanmar administration made up of elected politicians removed in the coup and other pro-democracy figures. In a January 17 statement, the administration called on neighbouring countries to block the military’s use of their airspace “in the interests of regional peace and security and the protection of civilians”.
During a media briefing on January 19, India’s foreign ministry spokesperson denied reports that Myanmar’s military had encroached into its airspace but acknowledged that a bomb had landed in the Tiau riverbed near Farkawn village in Mizoram’s Champhai district.
“Such incidents near our border are of concern to us,” said the spokesperson, adding that the ministry had “taken up the matter with Myanmar side”.
In Mizoram, meanwhile, the attacks have not only prompted expressions of solidarity, including a music concert, but outrage among local organisations. Mizo people share a close ethnic affinity with their Chin neighbours and, since the coup, the state has taken in more than 40,000 refugees despite a lack of funding support from the central government.
The bombings also appear to have further galvanised the Chin resistance. “We can sleep anywhere. We can rebuild our camp again. That’s not the main thing,” said Van Bawi Mang.
“ [The military] thinks their bombs can defeat us, but they are wrong. The main thing is the spirit, the ownership of the land…That will be our main weapon.”
More attacks from the air
The military’s attempts to destroy resistance to its power have backfired since the start. When soldiers gunned down hundreds of unarmed protesters in the initial months after the coup, it only strengthened the armed resistance. The military has retaliated by raiding, burning and bombing villages, but resistance forces have only continued to gather momentum.Now, the strategy appears to be stepping up air attacks – a forthcoming report from Myanmar Witness, based on an analysis of open-source data, shows increased reporting of such strikes in the latter part of 2022.
Shona Loong, a lecturer at the University of Zurich who specialises in the political geography of armed conflict, told Al Jazeera that the military’s bombing of Camp Victoria illustrates an approach it has used for decades to try to quell resistance in the country’s border areas, where about two dozen ethnic armed organisations, including the CNF, are based.
“The recent airstrikes still testify to the military’s view of Chin resistance forces as ‘terrorists’ that must be crushed, even if doing so incurs a significant civilian toll,” she said, adding that the attacks were likely to “energise the resistance even further”.
As in many military attacks, the bombing of Camp Victoria affected several civilian targets, including a hospital whose roof was marked with a red cross, recognised as a symbol of protection under international humanitarian law.
A doctor who helped establish the facility and spoke on condition of anonymity due to safety concerns said that since opening in August 2021, the hospital had served more than 5,000 patients, most of them civilians from either side of the India-Myanmar border.
“We chose Camp Victoria because, without aerial attacks, it is the safest place across Chin State,” he said. “We didn’t think that such an inhuman act as a bomb blast on a civil hospital would happen.”
In response to the bombings, the CNF said it condemned “in the strongest terms the brutal and cowardly acts”.
The bombings, it said in a statement published on January 13, have “made it impossible for a reversal of course for the ongoing revolution”.
Trigger for escalation
According to an estimate by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, an international crisis-mapping nonprofit, more than 30,000 people have died in political violence in Myanmar since the coup.Salai Za Uk Ling, deputy director of the Chin Human Rights Organisation, told Al Jazeera he expected a “marked escalation” of the conflict in Chin State and that the attacks were “naive given how determined and committed the Chin resistance has been from the beginning”.
The attacks, which forced some 250 more people to flee across the border, also have implications in Mizoram. Since the coup, community groups have organised a grassroots humanitarian response to the influx of refugees.
But while Mizo communities have welcomed the new arrivals, the Camp Victoria bombings have caused alarm for different reasons.
C Lalramliana, president of the Farkawn Village Council, told Al Jazeera that as of a week after the bombing, villagers seemed to be avoiding the Tiau River unless they absolutely had to go there.
Two men who were collecting sand from the riverbank on January 10 said the Myanmar attacks had endangered their lives.
TC Lalhmangaihsanga was loading sand onto his truck when he heard three bomb blasts. The third, he said, landed about 50 metres (164 ft) from his truck – a piece of shrapnel piercing through the metal driver’s cabin wall from the rear, travelling through the driver’s headrest and shattering the windscreen.
Vanlalmuana Hramlo, who owns and drives a tractor, was on his way back to his village with a load of sand when he heard the explosions. “I was scared that as we were driving uphill, [the Myanmar military] might think we were fleeing and they might shoot at us,” he said.
Mizo community organisations have strongly spoken out against the attacks.
“It is a painful assault on our great motherland, India, by jet fighters frightening and terrifying Indian farmers, sand loaders and the common people,” said a statement from a regional affiliate of the Young Mizo Association (YMA), one of the state’s most influential groups.
A committee made up of six Mizo organisations, including the YMA, meanwhile, described the bombings as “an act of disrespect and direct challenge of the sovereignty of India and violation of human rights of Indian citizens in general and Mizo people in particular”.
The statements reflect a broader dissonance in responses to the coup from Mizoram and the central Indian government.
The Mizoram State government has from the beginning expressed solidarity with the people of Myanmar and offered a safe haven to refugees. The central government, in contrast, initially sought to “prevent a possible influx” of refugees into the country’s northeastern states and has maintained diplomatic ties with Myanmar’s top military generals.
Angshuman Choudhury, an associate fellow at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi who focuses on Myanmar and northeast India, told Al Jazeera that the Camp Victoria bombings were unlikely to push India’s central government to change its policies towards Myanmar.
“Over the last one year or so, the Indian government has consolidated its relationship with the Myanmar military regime in order to advance its own economic and strategic interests,” he said. “One bombing incident along the border is unlikely to put any dent on that.”
Engage with the resistance
Leading up to the Camp Victoria attacks, the CNF had been warning about the danger of such an incident. On November 2, a military reconnaissance plane flew over the camp; classified military documents leaked the same week revealed its plans to attack 14 of the camp’s buildings.Members of the Chin resistance told Al Jazeera that the Indian government’s initial silence following the bombings had led to distrust and a sense of abandonment.
Nonetheless, the CNF offered an olive branch in its January 13 statement.
“Our neighbouring countries should realise that business as usual with the military junta is neither sustainable nor strategic for their long-term interests. The future belongs to the people and the revolution,” it said.
Chin resistance leaders told Al Jazeera they hoped to be able to engage positively with India in the near future.
“We believe that India is also responsible for our survival and our fight for freedom, as a good neighbour and also a democratic country,” said Salai Ceu Bik Thawng, an advisor to the CNF. “It would be very welcome if they could support.”
Sui Khar, the CNF’s third vice chairman, said he hoped India would recognise that it stood to gain by engaging with Myanmar’s resistance.
“India should also realise that they cannot achieve their policies, their goals only just having a good relationship with Naypyidaw,” he said, referring to the grand capital the generals built for themselves during a previous military regime.
“They have to engage with other stakeholders.”
Fears of escalation after Myanmar air raids near India border
Five people were killed in the attacks, which struck the headquarters of the Chin National Front, an ethnic armed group.
(lemonde.fr jan19)
On Friday 19 January, an Indian paramilitary officer told Agence France-Presse that nearly three hundred soldiers from the Burmese junta had crossed the border into India to flee the advance of rebel forces fighting the military in power in Burma. "We have accommodated them in our camp", the officer said, adding that the soldiers who arrive receive "all the support they need".
Armed clashes have been raging in certain regions of Burma bordering India since the Arakan Army (AA) launched a major operation against the security forces in November, inflicting setbacks on the regular army, which has been in power since a coup in 2021. This offensive put an end to a ceasefire that had been largely respected in the region since the coup.
The AA said on Sunday that it had seized the town of Paletwa in Chin state, around 20 kilometres from the border with Bangladesh, and six military bases along the border with the Indian state of Mizoram.
The Indian officer said that his unit was collecting the soldiers' biometric data and had asked the Ministry of Defence in New Delhi for authorisation to send them back to Burma. Two Burmese military aircraft have arrived in Aizawl, the capital of Mizoram State, to collect and repatriate the soldiers who have withdrawn from the conflict.
In October, an alliance between the AA and two other ethnic minority groups launched a joint offensive against the junta in Shan State, capturing towns and seizing vital commercial centres on the Chinese border to the north. Last week, the alliance announced a Chinese-brokered ceasefire in the region after months of conflict, which posed the greatest threat to the junta since it took power. /deepl
In Burma, hundreds of regular army soldiers flee to India in the face of advancing rebel forces
Armed clashes have been raging in certain regions of Burma bordering India since a rebel group launched a major operation against the security forces in November.On Friday 19 January, an Indian paramilitary officer told Agence France-Presse that nearly three hundred soldiers from the Burmese junta had crossed the border into India to flee the advance of rebel forces fighting the military in power in Burma. "We have accommodated them in our camp", the officer said, adding that the soldiers who arrive receive "all the support they need".
Armed clashes have been raging in certain regions of Burma bordering India since the Arakan Army (AA) launched a major operation against the security forces in November, inflicting setbacks on the regular army, which has been in power since a coup in 2021. This offensive put an end to a ceasefire that had been largely respected in the region since the coup.
The AA said on Sunday that it had seized the town of Paletwa in Chin state, around 20 kilometres from the border with Bangladesh, and six military bases along the border with the Indian state of Mizoram.
The Indian officer said that his unit was collecting the soldiers' biometric data and had asked the Ministry of Defence in New Delhi for authorisation to send them back to Burma. Two Burmese military aircraft have arrived in Aizawl, the capital of Mizoram State, to collect and repatriate the soldiers who have withdrawn from the conflict.
In October, an alliance between the AA and two other ethnic minority groups launched a joint offensive against the junta in Shan State, capturing towns and seizing vital commercial centres on the Chinese border to the north. Last week, the alliance announced a Chinese-brokered ceasefire in the region after months of conflict, which posed the greatest threat to the junta since it took power. /deepl
@randomradio, @RajputLion
India should be concerned about China's moves in Myanmar.
India should be concerned about China's moves in Myanmar.
Myanmar armed group says 11 civilians killed in junta air strikes
Bangkok (AFP) Sept 6, 2024 - Myanmar military air strikes in northern Shan state killed 11 civilians and wounded 11 more, a spokeswoman for an ethnic minority armed group battling the junta told AFP on Friday.
www.spacewar.com
@randomradio, @RajputLion
India should be concerned about China's moves in Myanmar.
Myanmar armed group says 11 civilians killed in junta air strikes
Bangkok (AFP) Sept 6, 2024 - Myanmar military air strikes in northern Shan state killed 11 civilians and wounded 11 more, a spokeswoman for an ethnic minority armed group battling the junta told AFP on Friday.www.spacewar.com
Myanmar is fragmented, it's not a real country, so there's less opportunities for a single country to control the region. It's the Syria of SE Asia.