Pakistan AirForce : Updates & Discussions

[Speedster1]

Why would PAF buy small batch of J10 before moving onto J31.

The J-10C is going to be their new eff solah with numbers expected to go into triple digits.

Besides, the Pakistanis have been making noises about buying twin engine jets for a while. I think the last twin engine combat ac in the PAF was the Chini A-5 Fantan strike ac, retired long since.

Too early to talk about J31 numbers but they have a penchant for 'equal-equal' with the IAF.

Assuming 4-5 years before PAF get their J31,
India s first option will be Amca.

The latest news is that AMCA wil start production around 2035. Even a small number of F-31s will give them an ego-boost. Once again, they'll claim to the first AF in the sub-continent to get 5G fighter, just like the 1980s when they got the F-16.

The IAF will not take it lying down and might go for some Su-57 as stopgap.

 

[Sathya]

The J-10C is going to be their new eff solah with numbers expected to go into triple digits.

Besides, the Pakistanis have been making noises about buying twin engine jets for a while. I think the last twin engine combat ac in the PAF was the Chini A-5 Fantan strike ac, retired long since.

Too early to talk about J31 numbers but they have a penchant for 'equal-equal' with the IAF.


The latest news is that AMCA wil start production around 2035. Even a small number of F-31s will give them an ego-boost. Once again, they'll claim to the first AF in the sub-continent to get 5G fighter, just like the 1980s when they got the F-16.

The IAF will not take it lying down and might go for some Su-57 as stopgap.

For me, Su 57 will come back only if US don't sign F414 Or delay F404 beyond acceptable limits.

Reasons I could think of are..

Off the shelf Purchase will be silver bullet, totally depending ( with no source code) on Russian mic in the background of CAATSA.

Even after Make in India, Su 30 had 40 % availability before Parikkar forced to it higher levels. Su 57 being 5 th gen might require even more maintenance.

We already bought a silver bullet Rafale ( unless MRFA gets done)
Having 2 of them , sustainable will become difficult in case of drawn out war.

Russian platform has be superior to both J 31 & Amca to play the role of Silver bullet.

If Rafale can take care of J20, we ll only be buying more Rafales in MRFA making it more sustainable rather having 2 silver bullets.

 

[_Anonymous_]

For me, Su 57 will come back only if US don't sign F414 Or delay F404 beyond acceptable limits.

Reasons I could think of are..

Off the shelf Purchase will be silver bullet, totally depending ( with no source code) on Russian mic in the background of CAATSA.

Even after Make in India, Su 30 had 40 % availability before Parikkar forced to it higher levels. Su 57 being 5 th gen might require even more maintenance.

We already bought a silver bullet Rafale ( unless MRFA gets done)
Having 2 of them , sustainable will become difficult in case of drawn out war.

Russian platform has be superior to both J 31 & Amca to play the role of Silver bullet.

If Rafale can take care of J20, we ll only be buying more Rafales in MRFA making it more sustainable rather having 2 silver bullets.

If Rafales can take care of the J-20s , they can take care of the J-31 more so coz PAF receives export models . Simple rule of thumb.

I don't think the IAF is losing too much sweat on what Paxtan or PAF is upto . It's the Chinese who've gotten them worried or at least it should get them worried.

 

[Sathya]

If Rafales can take care of the J-20s , they can take care of the J-31 more so coz PAF receives export models . Simple rule of thumb.

I don't think the IAF is losing too much sweat on what Paxtan or PAF is upto . It's the Chinese who've gotten them worried or at least it should get them worried.

Will UAE suspend Rafale purchase?

Even if it did, will we make use of that window? For the Navy atleast..

 

[_Anonymous_]

Will UAE suspend Rafale purchase?

Even if it did, will we make use of that window? For the Navy atleast..

It's already been proven to be false news .

The Naval program will go thru before the end of this financial year . The IN needs it within the next 5 years to guard against PLAAF targeting the A&N island chains & Vizag .

As far as the IAF goes only God knows what's going on . I doubt Modi or the MoD has the slightest clue & the IAF is now squaring up to face Murphy's law running around like headless chickens.

 

[Speedster1]

Purchase will be silver bullet, totally depending ( with no source code) on Russian mic in the background of CAATSA

Russia wants to rope in India to manufacture Su-30s for export as a way to circumvent CAATSA. With the SU-57, OPEX costs will take some time to stabilize, no doubt abt that.

IIRC, there were some news reports about the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence recommending that the IAF go for a foriegn 5G fighter, keeping threat perceptions in mind. So, they are at least thinking along those lines.

Russian platform has be superior to both J 31 & Amca to play the role of Silver bullet.

Capability wise, the Su57's avionics+EW are likely inferior to a Rafale F4. But buying it will provide a much needed psychological boost to the IAF.

If Rafale can take care of J20, we ll only be buying more Rafales in MRFA making it more sustainable rather having 2 silver bullets.

We have always brought off-the-shelf stuff to immediate needs until indigenous equivalents were available. The F-35 is the only other alternative which we are unlikely to get. The IAF chose the Rafale as its MMRCA, arguably the most expensive ac, on the market (+spent a bomb customizing it)

I don't think the cost will be a factor.

 

[Ginvincible]

The fact that the Pakistanis bought the J-10C indicates that no more F-16s were/are forthcoming. India may have leaned on the US to not sell them any new ones. There were some reports recently that the US vetoed the sale of ex-Turkish ac to the PAF, after the former got their new Block 70/72s .

Given how sensitive we are, big-ticket sales to Pak will likely be limited, more so if Trump comes to power.

There are other considerations. The J-10C is undoubtedly cheaper than the F-16, and Pakistan probably got some 'mate's rates' or whatever from the Chinese. The PAF is also adopting more Chinese munitions (which are again cheaper) which they otherwise struggle to integrate onto F-16s. Chinese platforms are also obviously easier for interoperability between the PAF and PLAAF.

Side note: the F-16s are still getting sustainment packages from the US despite Indian opposition. I really don't think there's as much US opposition to selling to Pakistan as you'd expect. Regardless, the PAF F-16s are also getting older & will probably be retired in the mid-late 2030s.

Many of our air chiefs and generals, including the late CDS Rawat, have stated on record that India faces a collusive threat on both borders. The Modi govt imo is banking on diplomacy, economic levers and strategic signalling (Agni5, SSBN) to save our skin in the short to medium term.

More than anything else, its our bloated bureaucracy that's the millstone around our neck, imo. The least they could do imo is set up a non lapsable fund for capital procurement so the armed forces wouldn't have to return leftovers from their yearly allocations. This was being talked about but hasn't been implemented yet.

Pending deep structural reforms, we'll be forced to repeat what Gen. Ved Malik said during Kargil in 1999- "We will fight with what we have". Only this time, it won't be because we lacked the capacity to produce what we needed.

It's an unpopular opinion but I don't think the culture of defense planning will change until India gets a bloody nose in the next conflict. The general population and decision makers don't seem to appreciate the magnitude of what they're face. Defense isn't a prominent issue for most Indians outside of being a reliable jobs program... so successive governments just ignore it. That will change after India loses the next Kargil or whatever limited war occurs over in the next 1-2 decades.

Why would PAF buy small batch of J10 before moving onto J31.

J31 is only at prototype stage, who ll allow pilots to train on Prototype stage.

Pak pilots don't have stealth fighter experience to give in their inputs over what Chinese can do.

Maybe they are there for their customizations.
Are they investing in J31 like Jf 17 ?

I think it makes sense for the PAF to go for the J31.

JF-17 - J10C - J31 create a nice high-lo mix and they are acquiring a variety of drones. There is bound to be some degree of commonality for parts and spares between platforms. The PAF also get a lot more flexibility to integrate different munitions since the Chinese are a lot more open versus Western nations.

China will help Pakistan with twin-engine and stealth pilot training and maintaince. The PAF will get them as soon as they are able to afford it and they're available.

Ultimately

 

[Gautam]

It's an unpopular opinion but I don't think the culture of defense planning will change until India gets a bloody nose in the next conflict.

It is not an unpopular opinion but I doubt much will change even if we get a bloody nose. We are still struggling to implement all the reforms suggested by the Kargil committee report. Check out the wiki page if you haven't heard of it:

Kargil Review Committee - Wikipedia

The most important reform regarding pension & salary spend vs capex on acquisitions, reducing mean age of the military, reform in defence procurement, jointness in operations etc. are all in their initial stages of implementation.

 

[Ginvincible]

It is not an unpopular opinion but I doubt much will change even if we get a bloody nose. We are still struggling to implement all the reforms suggested by the Kargil committee report. Check out the wiki page if you haven't heard of it:

Kargil Review Committee - Wikipedia

The most important reform regarding pension & salary spend vs capex on acquisitions, reducing mean age of the military, reform in defence procurement, jointness in operations etc. are all in their initial stages of implementation.

That is an interesting and I'll definitely check out the full report over labor day.

I just imagine that losing a chunk of territory will motivate India similar to Alsace-Lorraine for France. Perhaps you are right and even if a war is lost there won't be any real change, but one can hope.

Either way, India's reluctance to modernize benefits Pakistan a lot. I always find it a little amusing that even if Pakistan has little resources and lives bailout to bailout, they have really good planning for upgrades and replacement. Just the fact that PAF will get a 5th generation fighter well in advance of the IAF is telling.

 

[Speedster1]

We're already been defeated by the Chinese in 1962 and didn't start fortifying our border with them until 2014.
But we have made a beginning and I think with experienced hands like Doval and Jaisnankar ag the helm, we now have at least some plan of action.

Key decisions like theaterization, IRF will be made sooner than later. But the gov does not have a free hand on major reforms since it's a coalition.

All we keep hearing is they plan to spend X billion on defence in the next 5 years with no mention of the OPEX component.

 

[Ginvincible]

We're already been defeated by the Chinese in 1962 and didn't start fortifying our border with them until 2014.
But we have made a beginning and I think with experienced hands like Doval and Jaisnankar ag the helm, we now have at least some plan of action.

Key decisions like theaterization, IRF will be made sooner than later. But the gov does not have a free hand on major reforms since it's a coalition.

All we keep hearing is they plan to spend X billion on defence in the next 5 years with no mention of the OPEX component.

There have been periods when both major parties had uncontested control. One of the constants between them was the withering of IAF and IA capabilities relative to the threats they're tasked to combat.

 

[Speedster1]

The party currently in power showed at least some urgency in crunch situations, imo. For example, signing for Su-30s, ex-Gorshkov carrier and an Akula SSN soon after Kargil.

They were also the ones who broke the Rafale gridlock (+ signed for Scorpenes) at different times. Unlike one former defence minister who said flat out 'India didn't have any money' at a Defexpo (2012?) no less. One thing that gives me hope is the higher level defence reforms, long considered taboo by the other main opposition party (raising the coup bogey as an excuse to avoid appointing a CDS), have finally started.

The military now has more say in policy matters with former officers like VK Singh and RK Bhadauria advising the government in various capacities. The pace of reforms though will remain slow probably for this entire term. At best, we might see the deal for Rafale-M getting inked plus perhaps the Scorpene mod subs.