Ah , yes @crap . It takes one to recognise another or is it a case of choron ko saare nazar aate hain chor ?
A bit rich from someone who starts his day online out here at 8 pm ( damn !! That time again ) upto 8 am IST regularly @ how do people ....
I see all my harangues have not been in vain @ORBAT .
The subtle shifting of ground while appearing to hold it has already commenced , LOL. Not that I'm complaining .
Frankly I wonder how is posting a video about the Blitzkrieg of the Nazis across mostly flat terrain in the west during WW-2 , going to explain mountain warfare in the Himalayas . I mean where's the analogy here , what's the connection ?
And if anyone is going to call " actual war fighting " in the WW-2 SHORT due to "maneuver warfare " , it's better they don't say so in front of the Russians or Ukrainians lest they have the furniture on their face re arranged .
Operation Barbarossa & it's successors both on the sides of the Wehrmacht & the SU were fought mostly on flat ground where the only disturbances were the elements namely the infamous Russian winter & the Rasputitsa in spring / summer. Besides look at the sheer numbers both the sides threw at each other.
Except for the initial phases where the SU was caught on the wrong foot never expecting an attack , all through the war & the particularly towards the end when the counter attack was launched the ratio always was 1.5 - 2-2.5 -3 :1 . Yet it took 3 yrs & a whole lot of factors for the tide to turn against Germany notwithstanding the famous Rommel dash in 1942-43 up the Middle East to the German push down south to the Caucasus which was cut short due to German unpreparedness in case of the latter & Rommel's defeat in case of the former.
In '1942: Britain at the Brink,' historian Taylor Downing looks at bitter defeats for the UK that nearly threatened the empire, including Jews who took haven in Mandatory Palestine
www.timesofisrael.com
As AVM Subramanian rightly noted that since the initiative doesn't lie with India w.r.t the attack , the Indian Armed Forces will prepare itself to survive the deadly initial barrages through dispersal of assets , carving out bases in the mountains so as to not be totally dependent on the upcoming & existing infrastructure given it's vulnerabilities which to sum it up would translate to those incapable of understanding simple logic - a war of attrition . That's how defenders fight the war going back to first principles.
Further , while on the topic of first principles , whosoever believes that the initial offensive lasting a week or a fortnight or a month having failed the Chinese would go back , kindly explain why the Russians aren't doing so for doesn't the same logic apply here ? For good reason , there's a lot more at stake than territory . I don't know how much will it take to din this fact thru thick skulls. It's almost as bad as engaging with Paddy . Hence the condescension & ridicule I guess .
During WW-2 every country across western Europe was fighting to retain it's independence . This existential fight was on the eastern front which succeeded & didn't precede the Blitzkrieg in western Europe. Similarly the Sino Indian war or the war to invade Taiwan isn't an existential war for the Chinese people as much as it's an existential war for the supreme ruler of China namely Xi .
I could've termed it into an existential war for the CCP too but the fact that Xi's usurped all power is known to everyone in China , hence any failure is his alone & that of his clique. Having said that , the Chinese are known throughout history to turn with a vengeance on the rulers whom they see as discredited or "having lost the mandate of heaven " as it's put in Mandarin which is why their internal revolutions have been far more bloody & long lasting affairs than their external wars & sometimes both these collide as it happened in the so called "century of humiliation." This is to say that the CCP doesn't automatically stand acquitted of all charges & escape culpability.
This is the crux behind why this is going to be a lengthy war of attrition . How long I can't say ?! Hell , I can't even predict whether the thinking within our security managers is as I've laid it out as their very own who've just recently quit service are still accusing their own forces of following outdated concepts like deterrence by denial rather than thru building up capacity.
A Sino Indian war in my opinion will take place only when the Han is supremely convinced of his own invincibility . That's a few years away , mostly around 2028 ( yes , that date again ) or later which in my opinion is 2030 or later . If there was any doubts on this score , the recent Ukrainian war & Russia's dismal performance in it would've driven home certain truths .
To draw an analogy , we can consider the Indo Pakistan equation. Can India seize PoK from Pakistan within the threshold of the N option being exercised today ? Perhaps we can , but there'd be a lot of huffing & puffing involved & we can't even be confident we'd manage it in toto even after a lengthy war of attrition across the mountains & valleys of Gilgit Baltistan .
Having said that , we can expect some intense action across the LAC this year . Why ? Coz it's 2023 exactly 3 yrs since the events of 2020 . Since 2006 but especially since 2013 China's followed a predictable trajectory wherein they've focused on each of their problematic borders - whether sea or land , in a sequential manner .
If last year - 2022 , was all about Taiwan & 2021 was about the ECS & the ASEAN countries then 2023 will be like 2020. This doesn't mean the other flash points won't see action . They will , just that it won't be as intense as it usually is in the designated year they choose to focus on a particular spot .
