Project 75 India Diesel-electric Submarine Programs (SSK) : Updates and Discussions
- Thread starter Himanshu
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A French SSK is risky. We have to take up 100% of the risk with zero control over the program for a relatively new, unproven class with unproven technologies. The IN doesn't even want to risk an Li-ion only sub even though others are pushing for it, never mind the entire sub to be worked on from scratch without any real control.
What's important is the Spanish, Germans and Koreans are using what they are offering for export. So the risk is shared amongst many, including customers that have significant executive control over the companies involved.
Lol,we were always been a buyer. That will continue for sometime. The topic here is about how french failed to even contest for a submarine deal. Probably they thought they had largest ever deal with ausies and backed off from other competitions. How sad.
Guys, relax & chill.
The P-75I, like most Indian competitive procurement efforts, is never going to result in a contract.
The only diesel subs coming in the foreseeable future are the 3 additional Scorpene boats.
The P-75I, like most Indian competitive procurement efforts, is never going to result in a contract.
The only diesel subs coming in the foreseeable future are the 3 additional Scorpene boats.
Many foreign tenders have gone through.
And I have a theory regarding MRFA's delays. It's deliberate. The 36 Rafales provide enough of a superiority over the PAF and acts as deterrence against PLAAF. And we have enough ground forces and Rafales to embarrass China by forcing a stalemate.
The result is with the predictable capabilities of the MKI and without sufficient offensive air power via Rafales, we are not seen as a major conventional threat by the Chinese. We are also focusing more on our defensive posture, like SAMs, BMD and new ground radars. So, since we present a significantly lower threat, this enables China to look elsewhere for trouble. Namely, Taiwan and SoKo. This gives us a lot of space to maneuver in the diplomatic sphere.
Both China and NoKo are seriously preparing for war. NoKo has 50 nukes, and they may invade SoKo after they get 200+. They will perhaps achieve that 3 years down the line. The nukes will prevent an American invasion into NoKo. And depending on how the war goes, the Chinese may attack Taiwan and may take Taiwan without US interference in exchange for a NoKo withdrawal. Without a sufficient number of Rafales the US cannot convince India to open up our front to distract the Chinese.
So, P-75I, SSN and MRFA have been designed to come in when they are required, ie, the next decade, when we need offensive power. Taiwan's so important that the US will fight tooth and nail to protect it. So the Chinese are going to receive quite a bit of damage, and will require time to rebuild, which will also match the time it will take for us to prepare, ie, 10 years from the time they fight.
Our economy is absolutely not ready to fight China today, or in 3 years. We need a decade of consistent growth. And even after that, we will need foreign aid to sustain a war. It will easily cost us upwards of $5B a day.
Naval Group bientôt fixé sur la vente de sous-marins Barracuda aux Pays-Bas.Lol,we were always been a buyer. That will continue for sometime. The topic here is about how french failed to even contest for a submarine deal. Probably they thought they had largest ever deal with ausies and backed off from other competitions.How sad.
Naval Group to decide soon on the sale of Barracuda submarines to the Netherlands
The Dutch government is due to announce in the next few days the winner of the tender to replace its fleet of four submarines. With its Barracuda attack vessel, the French shipbuilder seems to be in a good position to win.
It's a multi-billion euro race, which is due to come to a conclusion in the next few days. In mid-March, the Dutch government is due to announce the winner of the call for tenders launched in 2017 to replace its fleet of submarines. The contract is estimated to cost more than €2.5 billion in 2019 by The Hague - the seat of the executive - but that was before inflation picked up...
From the Chinese perspective, they know that the longer they wait to 'solve' the border issues with India, the harder it'll get for them as the gap between our capabilities reduces. Not to mention they are mindful of their worsening demographic situation.
What they do to shore up their capabilities in the East doesn't matter to us. And that's where a majority of their spending goes.
When I said gap reduces with regard to capability, I mean in terms of what they are deploying on the LAC as opposed to what we are. For example, right now they have an advantage in terms of operating in certain areas with armour thanks to the fact they have a light tank (ZTQ-15) whereas we don't. We are limited to operating only in those areas where the T-72/90 can go.
Once our light tank comes in, we'll be able to even the odds in those theatres. That's how capability gap reduces.
Same thing with regard to mechanization of infantry with induction of things like WhAP/other 8x8s, or combined arms thrusts with inclusion of things like LCH, where we'll be able to bring gunship support to our armour even to areas where the Z-10 cannot reach to back up their armour, giving us the advantage.
They can't help it. They are yet to solve the Taiwan issue. To them, Taiwan is an existential threat, India is not. So they have to address that first, and we have created an environment just for that. If they do not take Taiwan, they will never be a serious military threat to the US or anybody else. They are caged inside their own country.
The entire Chinese plan since 2013 was to "put India in its place" so they could concentrate on their front yard. We are playing their game but have simply changed the rules to suit us. We get to kick them out of our economy while not presenting a military threat to them, so they are also going along with that.
And being weaker pushes us down the priority list. We were probably number 2 on their sh!t-list, but we could be number 5 or 6 today. So, the US, India, Japan, collective SCS nations and Russia to US, Japan, Russia, collective SCS nations and India. The militarization of Russia and the SCS is helping us out. 'Cause while we are not adding any serious firepower, the others are.
You will notice that since the Rafale deal in 2016 we have not added any sort of serious offensive firepower after Doklam happened in 2017. And this is across the board. We are quite literally starting the process in Modi's potential third term.
Trump's re-election is a double-edged sword. He can become a huge blessing to India, and buy us a peaceful 4 years. But he also has the ability to divert China's attention to India. Doklam can very easily become a flashpoint. That area between Nipple and Button, as he calls them.
Their demographics problem will become a problem a long ways into the future, at least 30+ years away. So whatever aggressive actions they need to take will be done long before it becomes an issue.
10 or so years ago til the pandemic I used to think that China had a lot of incentive to fight a limited war against India. Their aims would have been: stoking internal nationalism, testing out their new military, and generally putting India in its place and cementing China as the preeminent power on this side of the continent.
I agree with you now though, I think the Chinese are posturing for a Taiwan first approach anymore. I'm not sure what changed but perhaps the salami slicing along the borders more or less going unchallenged changed their views? Maybe seeing how difficult entrenched land borders are to break in Ukraine soured them? Maybe they feel India is too far behind and they can take their time after 5-10 years or whatever after dealing with Taiwan and getting their economy up to war speed.
I get your points on postponing assets that can be used offensively against China, but SSKs are definitely more defensive oriented. If India is going for a porcupine strategy, wouldn't submarines be something they fast track?
You forgot to add, by next decade India too will join the bandwagon by exporting made in India subs to friendly countries, just like we are looking to sell LCA to Philippines & Argentina and that too at very competitive prices as we can mass produce it for Indian Navy bringing the costs down....Doesnt matter when we will have 3rd gen AIP certified by you guys.
Nothing interesting about it since everything is fixed.
Whats interesting is how you guys will survive in the market with the entry of Spain and Korea. Lets not forget the humiliation by the aussies.
We have a long history in bulding SSK and SSN together.
When you are able to produce a world class SSN, it's peace of a cake to built a SSK. After all Shortfins Barracuda was a direct brother of the french SSN, and even the Australian navy top brass said all was running well during the design phase.
We don't have SSK in aour fleet. What is the problem? Scorpene is a well selled product.
Spain is out of the market. SK is a real competitor.
Humiliation? Not about technology. Aussies got trapped by their english grand fathers.
=> No sub before 2040. Only 3 (at best. My bet is zero at the end because cost & lack of competence) to be built in Australia. Cost totally out of control.
WHAT A SUCCESS !!!!
I guess they believe they will maintain a significant lead until the 2040s, so there's time to deal with India.
A big issue is perception. If they win convincingly, it's fine. But if they lose or even face a stalemate against a country the average Chinese looks down on, the confidence for taking on the US will wane significantly. Couple that with their economic problems, then goodbye morale.
And they need to deal with the Taiwan issue before the US properly mobilizes technology and resources against China. The more they wait, the harder it becomes. And I don't think the Chinese have any interest in fighting multiple wars at the same time.
The SSK delays are from the vendor side though. And a VLS requirement gives it significant offensive capabilities.
S 80 class Submarine from Navantia has been declared as technically complaint under P75I and will undergo sea trials in few months. German ThyssenKrupp to enter limited sea trials first in coming weeks.
fairy tale.
The USN is going to spend USD 1.2 billion on the Los Angeles-class USS Boise, laid up since 2017, to bring it back into service in a few years' time ...
And they're going to sell new and used submarines to Australia?
Navy Awards $1.2B Repair Contract for Attack Sub USS Boise More Than 7 Years Late - USNI News
The Navy awarded a contract to start repair work on a nuclear attack submarine that returned from its last deployment nine years ago, according to a Friday Pentagon contract announcement. HII’s Newport News Shipbuilding won the $1.17 billion contract modification to start the long-overdue...
news.usni.org
Boise has been the poster child for the Navy’s submarine maintenance backlog in its own public shipyards. The boat was initially set to enter dry dock for the overhaul in Fiscal Year 2016, but there was no room at Norfolk Naval Shipyard.
Attack boats are the lowest maintenance priority in the four public yards after nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines and aircraft carriers. If those repairs run long, the attack subs are bumped from the schedule. Bosie was moored at Naval Station Norfolk and eventually lost its dive certification in 2017.
(…)
Naval analyst Bryan Clark told USNI News on Friday that the story of Boise is “tragic.”
“It’s tragic that you have one of the newest 688s that has been out of action for almost a decade because of a lack of industrial capacity,” he said.
“This is all on the Navy. This wasn’t something that private industry does … 688is were all coming in for their last major overall. It wasn’t sneaking up on the Navy. They knew it was coming.”
More news in the aukus thread.
L&T and MDL chose partners that are technically compliant right off the bat in fact.
fairy tale.
The USN is going to spend USD 1.2 billion on the Los Angeles-class USS Boise, laid up since 2017, to bring it back into service in a few years' time ...
And they're going to sell new and used submarines to Australia?
(…)Navy Awards $1.2B Repair Contract for Attack Sub USS Boise More Than 7 Years Late - USNI News
The Navy awarded a contract to start repair work on a nuclear attack submarine that returned from its last deployment nine years ago, according to a Friday Pentagon contract announcement. HII’s Newport News Shipbuilding won the $1.17 billion contract modification to start the long-overdue...
Boise has been the poster child for the Navy’s submarine maintenance backlog in its own public shipyards. The boat was initially set to enter dry dock for the overhaul in Fiscal Year 2016, but there was no room at Norfolk Naval Shipyard.
Attack boats are the lowest maintenance priority in the four public yards after nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines and aircraft carriers. If those repairs run long, the attack subs are bumped from the schedule. Bosie was moored at Naval Station Norfolk and eventually lost its dive certification in 2017.
(…)
Naval analyst Bryan Clark told USNI News on Friday that the story of Boise is “tragic.”
“It’s tragic that you have one of the newest 688s that has been out of action for almost a decade because of a lack of industrial capacity,” he said.
“This is all on the Navy. This wasn’t something that private industry does … 688is were all coming in for their last major overall. It wasn’t sneaking up on the Navy. They knew it was coming.”
More news in the aukus thread.
I guess the political message being sent across with just a handful of subs makes it more useful in Australian hands than American hands.
But yeah, gotta wait for the contract.
Full text
" Spain has said that its submarine, in contention for a Rs 43,000 crore procurement order by the Indian Navy, has been declared technically compliant and will be ready for trials in a few months. Speaking to ET, Amparo Valcarce, Spain’s Secretary of State for Defence said that there is also keen interest to work together in producing ammunition and missiles and several areas of cooperation have been identified.
In the first official word on the progress in the P 75I submarine contest to supply six boats to the Navy that will be built in India, Valcarce said that a joint bid by L&T and Navantia (Spain) is soon moving to the trials stage.
“We have been advised that the technical offer has been assessed as compliant. The next step is to undertake trials of the Air Independent Propulsion System (AIP) of the offered design. L&T and Navantia are working to commence the trials in a few months,” Valcare said.
Spain’s Navantia is in contention with Germany’s TyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) for the mega Navy contract that involves significant transfer of technology to the Indian construction partner. TKMS has chosen Mazagaon Dockyards Limited (MDL) as its partner and is expected to undergo trials in the coming weeks.
The secretary’s statement has brought clarity that Navantia, fully-owned by the Spanish government, will also be in a position to go for trials, despite speculation that the submarine may not be ready to demonstrate the all-important AIP that gives it the ability to stay underwater for weeks, a key requirement of the Indian Navy.
During her visit to the capital, Valcare met senior government officials, including Defence Secretary Giridhar Aramane and reaffirmed that Spain is willing to meet all technology transfer requirements.
“The Spanish government fully supports the project, which includes military materiel export clearances. We perceive India as a very relevant player for ensuring stability in the Indo-Pacific,” she said.
The Secretary added that Navantia is looking to participate in an upcoming tender for construction of Landing Platform Docks (LPDs) that are required by the Navy and will work with an Indian partner to make them locally.
Valcare also mentioned the ongoing manufacturing of C 295 transport aircraft in Spain for an Indian Air Force order, emphasising that it demonstrates the ability and willingness to transfer technology as a bulk of the planes will eventually be made in India.
Other areas identified for cooperation were also identified between the two nations during the bilateral meetings. “We would like to open up new opportunities, for example, work jointly on missiles and ammunition. Our goal is to work jointly with India,” the Secretary said. "