Is 2022 an Indian private joke in relation with the cycle of Brahma? (10^22)
5-6 years ago I made a lot of claims, after MMRCA died. Like we are gonna become more domestic industry driven (from 30-70%, we have switched to 65-35% today), like we will pretty much catch up with the USAF defence budget in terms of procurement before 2030 (difference has dropped from about 7 times to just 3 times today) and that a lot of our main long term programs and investments in defence will happen from 2022 onwards. This is how I got the moniker Resident Optimist by the one who-shall-not-be-named.
2022 is special because we used to have 5-year plans since 1951 to a little after Modi. Modi switched to long term planning in 2015. Based on our previous plan, our main procurements would have begin from 2022-2027, ie, the 14th Plan. The 13th Plan was already decided by the previous govt, obviously, so there was room only for small contracts by then, without significant spending increase, which the govt refrained from doing.
en.wikipedia.org
Basically I had stated that our biggest deals will be signed during this plan period. And it's happening now with the SSN, P-75I, MRFA (TE MII), LCA Mk2 (SE MII), AMCA, artillery programs, FICV, FRCV, BMD P2, LUH, LCH, new Indian weapons etc. I had pointed out that until 2022, all we will do is make piecemeal stop gap measures only to get minimum capabilities quickly, particularly the IAF, like 36 Rafale, 5 S-400s, 83 LCA Mk1A, Apache, Chinook etc. IA and IN also got some small deals, like the K9 Vajra, M777, a few Apache, infantry gear, Talwar class etc.
This was also based on my opinion that we will slowly start matching USAF's defence spending with double digit growth in the procurement budget by 2030, which is already happening. The IAF is at $7.5B compared to USAF's 22.9B as of 2021 (3 times). By 2027, we should be at $12+B (merely 35% growth, so 9% every year, easy), which should be around our peak spending since we do not have to spend as much as the USAF. So we won't have financial problems stopping these programs after 2022. To put that in perspective, we only need around $5B every year to buy 24 Rafale and 24 LCA Mk2. Leaving $7B for everything else, most of our other aircraft procurements cost just $200-300M a year. It's enough money to pay for 2 more fighter jets simultaneously, so AMCA and Su-57/NGAD/F-35, whatever.
Hence
2022, baby!!! It's happening!!!