Rafale DH/EH of Indian Air Force : News and Discussions

[randomradio]

In percentage of GDP, or in absolute value? The latter would be difficult to believe; they're at over 150 billion USD per year.

In absolute value, but only considering the specifics.

Procurement spending 2021: (Capital budget)
IAF = $7.5B
USAF = 22.9B

The rest (Revenue budget), $153-22.9B = salaries, RDT&E, operations and construction, basically nothing that adds directly to capability.

Take the USA's (army) 2022 budget for example:
Total = $172.6B
Procurement = $22.4B
RDT&E = $12.8B
O&M = $69.3B
Salaries = $66.2B
Construction = $1.2B

The IA's procurement budget for 2021 is $5B. That's merely 4.5 times. You buy stuff for modernisation using the capital budget. It's obviously dumb to compare everything else to the IA's capital budget, right?

So IAF's can easily climb to $12+B before 2027, that's a little over half that of the USAF's 2021 capital budget.

In fact this is what I have been saying for the longest time. Russia's overall capital budget is $30B, which is enough for them to begin matching America's capital budget as long as they double that over the next 5-10 years. You will quite literally have another American military in your backyard by 2030. And it's really mind-boggling to me that no one in the West even talks about it, and those that try to make sense of it fail quite miserably. "Why is Russia buying Su-35 at $20M, didn't the Chinese buy it for $80M? I'm confused". It's more or less a case of the privileged being blind to their privilege. Money simply doesn't have the same intrinsic value everywhere. You can already consider that the Russian army and air force budgets match USA and USAF's, they don't need to match the USN's. Pentagon leaders have been saying this for quite some time now.

So the difference in procurement budgets between the IAF, IA and IN are 3, 4.5 and 13 times compared to the US' service branches. The USN's budget skews the perception because only China can match them today. The answers lie in the specifics, not the general.

IMHO, the IAF's capital budget should peak between $12-15B between 2027 and 2030, at about half the USAF's budget. The IA's should actually match the USA's budget between 2030-35. The IN's budget depends on our priorities. Otoh, R&D budgets should increase drastically with the entry of the private sector. Today, pretty much all of our R&D goes through DRDO, so the forces don't spend a lot on it. PPP will begin factoring in with indigenisation compared to our import-heavy procurements today. We are aiming for a 90-10 ratio by 2030. Parrikar had also said that our defence budget growth can be cut by half with import-substitution. So the peak may happen even faster.

 

[thinkingcap81]

@randomradio Then we have two US level militaries close by - China and Russia. So our own economy, high-level R&D, cyber capabilities, economic linkages with worthy countries - these are going to be the deciding factors.

 

[randomradio]

@randomradio Then we have two US level militaries close by - China and Russia. So our own economy, high-level R&D, cyber capabilities, economic linkages with worthy countries - these are going to be the deciding factors.

Russia is getting there. They still need to climb out of their sanctions pit, plus they need to start diversifying their economy. Their R&D and cyber capabilities are on par with the US's, but some of it is yet to be deployed. They are way ahead in terms of exotic tech, like hypersonics. They can sink an American CBG with the simple act of firing Zircons at them today. We need to see how their surface fleet transforms after 2030, they have plans for nuclear-powered destroyers and carriers.

China surpassed the Pentagon's procurement budget a long time ago. They have the same R&D and cyber capabilities as the US, although they are behind in deploying it. In merely 5 more years we will know plenty enough to make a proper conclusion.

Within 10 years, although the US will remain technologically ahead when it comes to classical technologies (SSN, carriers, stealth etc), all three will be more or less on par with each other due to the emergence of exotic tech, like AI, nanotech, biotech, hypersonics, photonics, quantum tech etc.

Our R&D capabilities are more or less at the Western European level, our deployed capabilities are almost non-existent. Our cyber capabilities are pretty decent and have changed substantially since Galwan. We are behind the three in this area, but not by a lot. Our exotic technologies are practically non-existent, but we are working on those like the Europeans are. We maintain our relevance by importing some of those technologies.

So what China started doing since 2005-10, and Russia started since 2010-15, we will begin from 2022-2027, ie, all the big ticket deals that will define our capabilities from 2030 to 2050 will happen during this period.

All three have a major weakness when it comes to population over the next 30 years. Russia and China have begun to shrink, and while the US is said to grow, their society has degraded a lot so current projections may be wrong. The US is going the Japan way, no marriages, no children etc. So this is one area where we have a massive advantage.

 

[thinkingcap81]

Russia is getting there. They still need to climb out of their sanctions pit, plus they need to start diversifying their economy. Their R&D and cyber capabilities are on par with the US's, but some of it is yet to be deployed. They are way ahead in terms of exotic tech, like hypersonics. They can sink an American CBG with the simple act of firing Zircons at them today. We need to see how their surface fleet transforms after 2030, they have plans for nuclear-powered destroyers and carriers.

China surpassed the Pentagon's procurement budget a long time ago. They have the same R&D and cyber capabilities as the US, although they are behind in deploying it. In merely 5 more years we will know plenty enough to make a proper conclusion.

Within 10 years, although the US will remain technologically ahead when it comes to classical technologies (SSN, carriers, stealth etc), all three will be more or less on par with each other due to the emergence of exotic tech, like AI, nanotech, biotech, hypersonics, photonics, quantum tech etc.

Our R&D capabilities are more or less at the Western European level, our deployed capabilities are almost non-existent. Our cyber capabilities are pretty decent and have changed substantially since Galwan. We are behind the three in this area, but not by a lot. Our exotic technologies are practically non-existent, but we are working on those like the Europeans are. We maintain our relevance by importing some of those technologies.

So what China started doing since 2005-10, and Russia started since 2010-15, we will begin from 2022-2027, ie, all the big ticket deals that will define our capabilities from 2030 to 2050 will happen during this period.

All three have a major weakness when it comes to population over the next 30 years. Russia and China have begun to shrink, and while the US is said to grow, their society has degraded a lot so current projections may be wrong. The US is going the Japan way, no marriages, no children etc. So this is one area where we have a massive advantage.

So we're trying reasonably hard to break into runners-up category. Not bad given our poor performance till recently.

Since the top scientific powers are facing population shrinkage, they will accelerate work on exotic tech. Our demographic dividend may not help since we too will have to try to match them rendering vast sections of our graduates unviable for getting a job. We're heading for some major kind of trouble. The government needs to have a multi-decade plan on upgrading our education and execute it as well.

 

[randomradio]

So we're trying reasonably hard to break into runners-up category. Not bad given our poor performance till recently.

We are merely working on what works for us right now. We aren't competing with them. We aren't even a Great Power today, our focus is regional.

Relative to the US, Russia and China are militarily near-peer adversaries today, China is also an economic peer-adversary. India is nowhere close militarily or economically, no contest. If the Russians play it right, they will become a military peer-adversary by 2030-35.

Since the top scientific powers are facing population shrinkage, they will accelerate work on exotic tech. Our demographic dividend may not help since we too will have to try to match them rendering vast sections of our graduates unviable for getting a job. We're heading for some major kind of trouble. The government needs to have a multi-decade plan on upgrading our education and execute it as well.

People have to decide to get "properly" educated on their own. That means trade schools and degrees that actually have demand. The govt can't help.

 

[randomradio]

There we go.

Budget 2022 | FM raises domestic defence procurement; invites private sector into military research

In FY22, the Ministry of Defence’s budget’s capital outlay was Rs 1.35 trillion, a jump of almost 19 percent over FY21, with the bulk targeted at new acquisitions and military modernisation.

www.moneycontrol.com

According to Budget documents, the capital expenditure outlay for the defence sector has increased significantly, by 13%, in FY23 to Rs 1.52 trillion from Rs 1.35 trillion in FY22 while revenue and pension expenditure have remained stable. In total, the Budgetary allocation to the Ministry of Defence has risen 9% year-on-year to Rs 5.25 trillion in FY23 from Rs 4.7 trillion in FY22.

Double digit growth will be the norm for the capital budget.

 

[suryakiran]

@randomradio, thanks a lot for the explanations. I better understand certain things.
And «… catch up with the USAF defence budget in terms of procurement before 2030…», wow!


@_Anonymous_ thank you too. I stay aware, as adviced.

Then let me wish you a happy2022BrahmaMuhurata!

(Learnt it begins 1h46mn before dawn, and the muharata in itslef lasts 46mn, which let 46mn before dawn.
So, if my «Hindi» is correct, that means for 2022: 46 RafaleM for the IN, and 46 more for the IAF.)

First one needs to wake up, to make use of Brahma Muhurtha.

 

[randomradio]

First one needs to wake up, to make use of Brahma Muhurtha.

Like Rahul Gandhi.

 

[randomradio]

Three Rafale jets with Indian enhancements to reach India soon

The total strength of Rafale fighters in India will soon be thirty five. The three Rafale jets with Indian enhancements will be reaching India in next two days.

www.republicworld.com

The total strength of Rafale fighters in India will soon be thirty-five as the three Rafale jets with Indian enhancements will be reaching India in the next two days, according to the defense sources. The last Rafale fighter will arrive in India in April this year, completing the 36 aircraft contract with France. The last fighter will be fitted with all India-specific enhancements.

The three Rafale jets have to take off from Istres-Le Tube airbase northwest of Marseille in southern France, around February 1-2 depending on the weather conditions. These jets will fly continuously to India with mid-air refueling assistance by UAE. The sources in the Defence Ministry also indicated that once India receives all 36 jets, the 32 jets in the initial lots will be flying to France in a phased manner for Indian modification fittings to give Indian Air Force more teeth.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Three Rafale jets with Indian enhancements to reach India soon

The total strength of Rafale fighters in India will soon be thirty five. The three Rafale jets with Indian enhancements will be reaching India in next two days.

www.republicworld.com

The total strength of Rafale fighters in India will soon be thirty-five as the three Rafale jets with Indian enhancements will be reaching India in the next two days, according to the defense sources. The last Rafale fighter will arrive in India in April this year, completing the 36 aircraft contract with France. The last fighter will be fitted with all India-specific enhancements.

The three Rafale jets have to take off from Istres-Le Tube airbase northwest of Marseille in southern France, around February 1-2 depending on the weather conditions. These jets will fly continuously to India with mid-air refueling assistance by UAE. The sources in the Defence Ministry also indicated that once India receives all 36 jets, the 32 jets in the initial lots will be flying to France in a phased manner for Indian modification fittings to give Indian Air Force more teeth.

I still dont understand this Obsession with F 4 by IAF and Make in India by the GOI

Are we going slow on further orders because of Su 30 Upgrades

I saw some videos on Youtube
Which say that we are getting
AL 41 , Uttam AESA , Khibiny Jammer and RVV --BD missiles

 

[randomradio]

I still dont understand this Obsession with F 4 by IAF and Make in India by the GOI

Are we going slow on further orders because of Su 30 Upgrades

Who knows? Maybe it's not even under consideration.

I saw some videos on Youtube
Which say that we are getting
AL 41 , Uttam AESA , Khibiny Jammer and RVV --BD missiles

Likely to be the case.

 

[_Anonymous_]

First one needs to wake up, to make use of Brahma Muhurtha.

You've got to be kidding me . Didn't you see the proof laid out ? Those complex mathematical calculations which would put Leibnitz's calculus in poor light , where in 5 billion USD = 1/2 *22 billion USD in PPP terms of thereabouts.

In another 5 yrs we ought to be there i.e assuming that 2022 doesn't yield desired results & so does 2025 which is the new 2022. Hence 2027 which is a redundancy for a redundancy.

By 2027 , it's Nabha sparsh deeptam literally .

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Who knows? Maybe it's not even under consideration.



Likely to be the case.

So An upgraded SU 30 is Equal to Rafale F 4

By the way , UAE has already ordered 80 F 4s

So the only way we can get them is through 114 order , which has its own set of complications

You've got to be kidding me . Didn't you see the proof laid out ? Those complex mathematical calculations which would put Leibnitz's calculus in poor light , where in 5 billion USD = 1/2 *22 billion USD in PPP terms of thereabouts.

In another 5 yrs we ought to be there i.e assuming that 2022 doesn't yield desired results & so does 2025 which is the new 2022. Hence 2027 which is a redundancy for a redundancy.

By 2027 , it's Nabha sparsh deeptam literally .

There is Only little problem

Elections in 2024

Mamta --Pappu -- Kejriwal -- Stalin

Pick your choice

 

[_Anonymous_]

So An upgraded SU 30 is Equal to Rafale F 4

By the way , UAE has already ordered 80 F 4s

So the only way we can get them is through 114 order , which has its own set of complications


There is Only little problem

Elections in 2024

Mamta --Pappu -- Kejriwal -- Stalin

Pick your choice

I can assure you all requirements for the Rafale irrespective of the version & service it's intended for would come in thru GTG contracts in increments a la the MKI with strong off set requirements.

The window for an MRFA tender is growing narrower by the day. In fact it never was there in the first place. The late Gen Rawat let the cat out of the bag when he publically stated the preference of the MoD for incremental purchase of the Rafales citing the example of the MKI.

This budget with its stress on domestically produced items & the recent scrapping of multiple tenders & requirements for foreign made items should put any & every such speculation to rest.

 

[Bon Plan]

Three Rafale jets with Indian enhancements to reach India soon

The total strength of Rafale fighters in India will soon be thirty five. The three Rafale jets with Indian enhancements will be reaching India in next two days.

www.republicworld.com

The total strength of Rafale fighters in India will soon be thirty-five as the three Rafale jets with Indian enhancements will be reaching India in the next two days, according to the defense sources. The last Rafale fighter will arrive in India in April this year, completing the 36 aircraft contract with France. The last fighter will be fitted with all India-specific enhancements.

The three Rafale jets have to take off from Istres-Le Tube airbase northwest of Marseille in southern France, around February 1-2 depending on the weather conditions. These jets will fly continuously to India with mid-air refueling assistance by UAE. The sources in the Defence Ministry also indicated that once India receives all 36 jets, the 32 jets in the initial lots will be flying to France in a phased manner for Indian modification fittings to give Indian Air Force more teeth.

Strange that the 32 already delivered can't be upgrade in India. In DRAL for exemple...

 

[_Anonymous_]

Strange that the 32 already delivered can't be upgrade in India. In DRAL for exemple...

That's coz DRAL is just a shed with a runway. The cat's out of the bag .

 

[Bon Plan]

Su 30 Upgrades

I saw some videos on Youtube
Which say that we are getting
AL 41 , Uttam AESA , Khibiny Jammer and RVV --BD missiles

Even then, the frame are going older and older, and the RCS of Su30 will remain awfull.
It's a big upgrade, but only an upgrade.
During this time more Mig21, 27, Jag will be phased out.

That's coz DRAL is just a shed with a runway. The cat's out of the bag .

In HAL ? like M2000-5 (with some problems and delay...)

 

[_Anonymous_]

In HAL ? like M2000-5 (with some problems and delay...)

FWIW , DRAL evidently lacks even have HAL's abysmal capabilities .

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

I can assure you all requirements for the Rafale irrespective of the version & service it's intended for would come in thru GTG contracts in increments a la the MKI with strong off set requirements.

The window for an MRFA tender is growing narrower by the day. In fact it never was there in the first place. The late Gen Rawat let the cat out of the bag when he publically stated the preference of the MoD for incremental purchase of the Rafales citing the example of the MKI.

This budget with its stress on domestically produced items & the recent scrapping of multiple tenders & requirements for foreign made items should put any & every such speculation to rest.

I can assure you all requirements for the Rafale irrespective of the version & service it's intended for would come in thru GTG contracts in increments a la the MKI with strong off set requirements.

The window for an MRFA tender is growing narrower by the day. In fact it never was there in the first place. The late Gen Rawat let the cat out of the bag when he publically stated the preference of the MoD for incremental purchase of the Rafales citing the example of the MKI.

This budget with its stress on domestically produced items & the recent scrapping of multiple tenders & requirements for foreign made items should put any & every such speculation to rest.

If we order 36 F 4 Rafales ,then we have to stand in the Queue Behind UAE and other countries

That means no more Rafales till 2027

 

[TARGET]

I still dont understand this Obsession with F 4 by IAF and Make in India by the GOI

Are we going slow on further orders because of Su 30 Upgrades

I saw some videos on Youtube
Which say that we are getting
AL 41 , Uttam AESA , Khibiny Jammer and RVV --BD missiles

I am not sure about other upgrades but Uttam AESA, RVV-BD... definitely yes, if budget permits