You may not realise it, but you are privileged customers: for example, you ordered 36 Rafales like Qatar, but you got them before them, whereas you ordered them after.
That's in part due to the strategic partnership we have with France. In that sense I believe irrespective of whichever party's in power , the relationship we share with France is certainly on a much better footing as compared to say your northern neighbour the UK with whom we share a problematic love hate relationship.
Also credit must be given to both Dassault & Qatar for accommodating us . No 2 opinions here .
I think we're going to lease you 5 Rafale M or maybe sell them to you second-hand like we did to Croatia, and we're also going to sell 26 + 36 Rafales that we'll produce in India from 2026 onwards in five years.
5 Rafale M on lease in all probability. I doubt the IN will go in for a 2nd hand purchase. Which in turn would mean we import it from France or combine orders with the IAF to manufacture them in India provided the price is right.
I would imagine the Make in India by Dassault would only work if there's a cost benefit or at least zero cost additions. Otherwise in all likelihood this government would prefer going in for off sets.
You will see in 2028 if your AMCA is likely to be ready in 2031 and if not, you will extend the production of Rafales.
AMCA Mk-1 is due for it's first flight in 2025-26 with FOC in 2031 . Now depending on how well it performs , what it brings to the table & how soon will it happen , decisions on external procurements would be taken .
There's certainly a case to be made for a 5th Gen FA to be procured later this decade which as of now seems to be the Su-57 . If either UK or preferably France had a 5th Gen FA in it's inventory the IAF would definitely have opted for it .
Beyond that with the kind of indigenous programs in the pipeline , the fast changing global scenario especially in our neighborhood makes it difficult to see the procurement of a 4.5 + Gen FA later this decade.
That's precisely why I think & have maintained even earlier that the MRFA tender is a bit of a Plan B for the LCA Mk-2 / AMCA Mk-1 . Given the excruciatingly slow procurement process by our bureaucracy & financial constraints , if & that's a big if , the IAF floats an RFI this year , for the entire process to culminate in an agreement being signed would take at least 6 yrs & I'm being very optimistic here.
Usually it takes twice the time if we go by the T/L of the previous tender . This means 2028. Add another 3-4 yrs for the first Rafale to roll out of DRAL Mihan & that's 2031-32.
This co incides with the T/L of the FOC of the AMCA Mk-1 . Even if were to take a delay of a few years that'd mean we roll out our first AMCA Mk-1 production variant by 2034-35 or 35-36 T/L. Looking at the above scenario , pls explain how exactly does one accomodate the MRFA tender & why ?