Sukhoi Su-30MKI
- Thread starter Ashwin
- Start date
Exactly, so you will never know. Everything you read on internet is just speculation.
That doesn't mean everything is perfect on US side. One of my co worker worked on F-16 program and he was making fun of the MTBF (mean time between failures) numbers of some of the components. It's pathetic.
I can bet the quality will be much worse for China.
Target detection range in excess of 100kms...Nice.
Current OLS-30 can detect afterburning targets from rear hemisphere at around 90kms and non-afterburning fighter jets at around 30kms from front.
If this IRST can detect non-afterburning stealth jets from front in excess of 100kms, then MKI UPG's firepower against VLO jets should see a quantum jump.
Anyways, so much update regarding MKI UPG in this Aero India. From new EW to new IRST to new AESA. Awesome, simply awesome.
F-22 won't fight alone. USAF just did recent Red Flag with F-22, Typhoon and F-18G, simulating a war with China over Taiwan.
US is preparing too.
Yes, seriously outgunned against PL-15. Has anyone ever outsticked US in BVR except China? First time this has happened in history, I think.
Yes.
They may expedite MLU for Raptor looking at the current scenario.
You are completely dismissing the presence of F-35. F-22 won't fight alone but with its junior brother F-35. And that combo along with Super Hornets and Growlers is going to create plenty of problems for Chinese planes including J-20.
War is inevitable. Sooner or later China will attack Taiwan and US has to defend it no matter what.
So much hatred towards mediocre products that are forced up on my soldiers.
The crux of the issue is 2 fold namely how good are the J-20s & J-31s against the Raptors & Lightnings besides their J-16s & J-10s against the Teens going ahead towards the end of the decade. Simultaneously from our perspective how good are our Rafales vs their J-20s & our MKIs vs their J-20s + J-10s assuming upgrades in all respective AFs going ahead .
Cutting thru the fluff i, as a general rule of thumb, if we accept that China's 10 yrs behind the curve vis a vis the US & India some 5-10 yrs behind China with this constant continuing till the end of the decade , can they afford a confrontation with the US & can we do so against China?
Of course all this is an educated guess & barring one, all of us out here would immediately concede this.
However I do believe we need those additional squadrons of Rafales, MKIs & Su-57 Ms apart from upgrading all our MKIs before the decade is out.
The problem is power generation: I had asked Thales to propose a radar derived from the RBE2 for the upgrade of the SU-30 MKI, and I had suggested to propose 4000 T/R which would have made 40 kw of peak power. They replied that there was not enough power generation to do this.
Pardon the ignorance but does APU help in such cases where in modern avionics & sensors are to be retrofitted into older generations of Fighter Aircrafts but face pretty much the same issues as inadequate power supply ?
It's not just about the equipment alone. There are multiple parameters are different levels. Question is can Indian top brass come up with a strategy for optimum use of our strength and exploit the weakness of the opponent? I'm not so sure about that. This is my opinion based on my limited knowledge.
1. If China goes for a limited war with India, it will end up in a stalemate. Not sure China will gain much out of it.
2. If China goes for full fledge war, it will be a golden opportunity for US. India will most likely take support of US and that will be the end of China. World will go through a deep recession, but China's super power dream will be over for a very long time.
3. If China attacks Taiwan within next 3 years, US will most likely go to the war. With Japan, Korea and Australia, it may win the war. But it will be every expensive.
4. If China attacks US after 5 years, I'm not sure whether US will go to the war. It will just use the sanctions to kill Chinese economy.
Well the initial discussions were on where is the US , China & India on the technology curve ?!
Ideally speaking , if China determines , which it seems it pretty much has , that annexing Taiwan is a matter of it's unfinished business of national unity & sovereignty then they'd go in for it . When ? Earlier estimates were just before 2049 , which from today's geopolitical PoV seems ideal from their perspective , but it seems to have been brought forward by a couple of decades today .
My target has always been post 2028 , more in 2030 & later . While China ideally has no reason to include India in it's list of non negotiables , it has & in any case there's no convincing Delhi that there's no confrontation brewing though India hopes it'd be low key. I've my doubts on the latter assessment.
As to whether it'd precede or succeed their attempt on Taiwan , that's the million dollar question . In any case the US Japan Taiwan & their alllies would prefer they precede Taiwan . Obviously India'd prefer it succeeds if at all it's preference is a matter of choice .
Besides I don't think the US whether 3 yrs down line or later can afford to sit it out if an invasion of Taiwan is attempted , as the Japanese have rightly put it , it gives the Chinese absolute control over SLOC to Japan & RoK . They view the survival of Taiwan as vital to their own survival. Hence if the Japanese get involved , which they will , the US can't sit it out .
As far as the technological curve goes , we've had this discussion centering on the IAF as the most weakest link & troubling part of our defence strategy . What @Rajput Lion 's overtly optimistic assessment & my own understanding of the situation says is that even if we undertake whatever I've suggested we do , in various posts made over the span of the last 2-3 months , we'd merely stand a fighting chance of ensuring a stalemate at best , in a prolonged war of attrition .Having said that there's no automatic guarantee we will .
However if we don't , which seems the path we've chosen then we ought to be prepared for a minimalist IAF role in the war & heavy casualties of the IA & supporting forces including civilians .
Quality and capability do not necessarily go hand in hand. For example, the Mig-29 is complete trash in terms of quality, but it could whoop the F-16 and M-2000 in WVR combat. The Russians have chosen to pay more for poor quality in exchange for enhanced capability. In a fight, the result matters most.
Similarly, the Chinese systems could have less capable electronics in the same generation compared to the Americans. So a 1st gen GaN Chinese radar may be inferior to a 1st gen American radar, we give Americans that benefit of the doubt by default. But the Chinese are compensating for that by introducing a 2nd or 3rd gen GaN radar in quick succession via Mk2 and Mk3 models, and the Chinese get the benefit of the doubt for that. Otoh, the Americans take 15-20 years (25 for the F-22) to bring in the next set of upgrades, although I think they will make that a whole lot faster in the future.
While we are claiming here that the Chinese may be behind, it may not be the case. Worst case, the Chinese are introducing new tech much, much faster than the Americans and also upgrading that at a faster pace. This has been the trend since the last 5 years now. Avionics is all about money and customisation.
At the very least we can speculate that they are on par, somewhat. Take India as an example, we have no real civilian semiconductor production, but we have a lot of military production of all the latest materials of different types. We have been fabricating our own semiconductors for military and space use for well over a decade. A good analogy is supercars, technology at that level is as much an art as it's science. Small numbers, high price, peak capability for its time.
Another thing about military R&D is at peak levels they don't care about IPR. If someone has something they want, the military buys it or steals it, and it's all legal. The Americans wanted PS4 chips for a missile. Sony told them they have to buy PS4s and take the chips out of that. But they didn't like what was happening, so they released a new firmware update that disabled such use in future editions. Militaries around the world have been using bundled up PS2/3s etc to create supercomputers on the cheap. The PS is a pretty good example of high end customisation on the cheap.
Your co-worker is right about the F-16, the IAF considers its maintenance cycle similar to that of third gen aircraft. The MKI is also a third-gen equivalent. Even electronics, the latest stuff that come out require a lot of maintenance even in the military.
Among 12G capable missiles, Derby ER and Meteor are around. The Russians also seem to have introduced a ramjet based BVR missile. The R-77 also had longer range than the AIM-120A/B, before being surpassed by the C.
You can't expedite R&D like that though. Delays are more likely. Our hope should be the Chinese are delayed with their new J-20.
F-35, SH and Growler are useless against a J-20 that's capable of killing the F-22.
Today, what's in favour of the F-22 is superior kinematics, ISR and training. Plus the US is defending. The Chinese have numbers, weapons and avionics advantages, and proximity to Taiwan, but they have to go on the offensive. If the Chinese have improved on the Flanker's maintenance, which should be obvious, then that's a massive plus for them too.
Any Sino-India war will be an army-focused war. The IAF is not as important. If the IAF fails to accomplish objectives within the Chinese airspace, then they will be reduced to defending Indian airspace, so there's going to be somewhat of a status quo, with the Chinese focusing more on long range fires. It's also why we are going whole hog on air-launched BMs like Rampage and Rudram II/III.
It's ridiculous to believe the IAF can gain an advantage in the air when even the USAF is going around claiming they cannot ensure air superiority against China. If all they can do is protect our airspace and support our forces on the ground, we can consider the IAF to have done its job.
This is our objective:
Mutual Denial of Air Superiority Could Benefit US in Future Conflict, Top USAF Planner Says | Air & Space Forces Magazine
Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote, deputy chief of staff for strategy, integration, and requirements, spoke about air superiority in the Ukraine war.
www.airandspaceforces.com
What do you need to achieve this? Somewhat reliable ASFs with the ability to detect, track and fire at stealth jets like the J-20 from long range and avoid a fight. And an extremely robust IADS that can prevent enemy stealth jets from creating surprise. And we attack via long range CMs and BMs, both ground-based and air-launched. This is pretty much our strategy.
Basically the situation has reversed. It's China that's aiming for air superiority and the US is aiming for air denial.
The Future of Air Superiority Part II: The 2030 Problem
Editor's Note: Do not miss the first article in this series, "The Imperative." In early 2015, the U.S. Air Force was about to begin work on its
warontherocks.com
Air Force Report Warns of Air Superiority Loss | Defense Media Network
The Air Force's Air Superiority 2030 Flight Plan warns of losing air superiority in the future and suggests new acquisition and development processes.
Translation: Even the upgraded F-22 cannot ensure air superiority.
As per the USAF, even NGAD and B-21 will only serve to maintain air parity against China.
So, now the US Army is equipping itself with mobile SAMs.
The Army Has Started Fielding Its First New Short Range Air Defense System In Decades
The arrival of new Stryker-based air defense vehicles in Germany comes as aerial threats, especially small drones, continue to grow.
www.thedrive.com
“At a casings factory in Hosur run by Tata, 50% of components produced is fit to be sent to Foxconn, Apple’s assembly partner, while Apple’s goal is zero defects. A person involved in Apple operations said the process of expanding to India is slow in part because of logistics, tariffs and infrastructure.”
Apple Struggling With Quality Control in India: Report
'At a casings factory in Hosur run by Tata, 50% of components produced is fit to be sent to Foxconn, Apple’s assembly partner, while Apple’s goal is zero defects,' the Financial Times has reported.
Get the point? @Rajput Lion
Both these missiles are capable of pulling in excess of 40G at the rail. Yes, they are good enough to kill 12G targets, but none of them are Americans. We are debating USAF vs PLAAF here. And my point was that it has for the first time in history that someone has nosed ahead of USAF at least in BVR missile tech.
Nope. R-77M is dual pulse like Derby-ER/PL-15/ASTRA2. Their ramjet BVR is still under development. In fact, our SFDR project should give them the fabled R-77PD.
Yes, for a brief period. R-77 was never inducted into RuAF. It's only R-77-1 that they are inducting now for the past few years.
By the time J-20 goes to serial production with WS-15, F-22 will get an MLU too.
Actually all three have already killed the Raptor in various exercises. You're underestimating F-35s war-fighting capability vis-a-vis J-20(current one).
US will not fight alone. China does not have too many friends. Hence the outcome is still unpredictable. Both sides are military heavy-weights.
Yes, got it. You hate India“At a casings factory in Hosur run by Tata, 50% of components produced is fit to be sent to Foxconn, Apple’s assembly partner, while Apple’s goal is zero defects. A person involved in Apple operations said the process of expanding to India is slow in part because of logistics, tariffs and infrastructure.”
Apple Struggling With Quality Control in India: Report
'At a casings factory in Hosur run by Tata, 50% of components produced is fit to be sent to Foxconn, Apple’s assembly partner, while Apple’s goal is zero defects,' the Financial Times has reported.thewire.in
Get the point? @Rajput Lion
