The Quad (US, Japan, India, Australia Security Dialogue) : Updates and Discussions
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Of course, what you said will happen. But at the very least the idea is to assure Russia that India joining the group is not aimed at Russia. People always forget that Russia is also a major player in the Pacific, the second most important after the US in fact.
The Quad Sharpens Its Edges
NEW DELHI – The Quad, a loose strategic coalition of the Indo-Pacific region’s four leading democracies, is rapidly solidifying this year in response to China’s aggressive foreign policy. Following a recent meeting of their top foreign-policy officials in Tokyo, Australia, India, Japan, and the United States are now actively working toward establishing a new multilateral security structure for the region. The idea is not to create an Asian version of NATO, but rather to develop a close security partnership founded on shared values and interests, including the rule of law, freedom of navigation, respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, peaceful dispute resolution, free markets, and free trade.China represents a growing challenge to all these principles. At a time when the world is struggling with a pandemic that originated in China, that country’s expansionism and rogue behavior have lent new momentum to the Quad’s evolution toward a concrete formal security arrangement. Of course, the Quad’s focus also extends beyond China, with the goal being to ensure a stable balance of power within a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” That concept was first articulated in 2016 by then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and has quickly become the linchpin of America’s regional strategy.While all of the Quad partners agree in principle on the need for a free and open Indo-Pacific, it is Chinese expansionism that has catalyzed their recent actions. China is forcing even distant powers like the United Kingdom, France, and Germany to view a rules-based Indo-Pacific as central to international peace and security.France, for example, has just appointed an ambassador for the Indo-Pacific, after unveiling a new strategy affirming the region’s importance in any stable, law-based, multipolar global order. And Germany, which currently holds the European Council presidency, has sought to develop an Indo-Pacific strategy for the European Union. In its own recently released policy guidelines, it calls for measures to ensure that rules prevail over a “might-makes-right” approach in the Indo-Pacific. These developments suggest that in the coming years, Quad members will increasingly work with European partners to establish a strategic constellation of democracies capable of providing stability and an equilibrium of power in the Indo-Pacific. After lying dormant for nine years, the Quad was resurrected in late 2017, but really only gained momentum over the last year, when its consultations were elevated to the foreign-minister level. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said this month that, “once we’ve institutionalized what we’re doing, the four of us together, we can begin to build out a true security framework, a fabric that can counter the challenge that the Chinese Communist Party presents to all of us.”
The Quad’s future, however, hinges on India, because the other three powers in the group are already tied by bilateral and trilateral security alliances among themselves. Australia and Japan are both under the US security (and nuclear) umbrella, whereas India not only shares a large land border with China, but also must confront Chinese territorial aggression on its own, as it is currently doing. China’s stealth land grabs in the northernmost Indian borderlands of Ladakh earlier this year have led to a major military standoff, raising the risks of further localized battles or another 1962-style frontier war.
It is precisely this aggression that has changed the strategic equation. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s authorization of People’s Liberation Army incursions into the Himalayas has forced India itself to take a more confrontational position. It is now more likely than ever that the Quad will shift gears from consultation and coordination to become a de facto strategic alliance that plays a central role in a new multilateral security arrangement for the region. This new architecture will bear little resemblance to America’s Cold War-era system, which rested on a patron-client framework, with the US as the “hub” and its allies as the “spokes.” No such arrangement would work nowadays, for the simple reason that a country as large as India cannot become just another Japan to the US.That is why the US is working to coax India into a “soft alliance” devoid of any treaty obligations. This effort will be on full display on October 26-27, when Pompeo and US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper visit New Delhi for joint consultations with their Indian counterparts. Most likely, this meeting will conclude with India signing on to the last of the four foundational agreements that the US maintains with its other close defense partners. Under these accords, both countries will be committed to providing reciprocal access to each other’s military facilities, securing military communications, and sharing geospatial data from airborne and satellite sensors. Moreover, having held multiple bilateral and trilateral military exercises with its Quad partners, India is likely to invite Australia to this year’s “Malabar” naval war games with the US and Japan. This would mark the first-ever Quad military exercise; or, as the Chinese communist mouthpiece Global Times, put it, “it would signal that the Quad military alliance is officially formed.”
US foreign policy has always been most effective when it leverages cooperation with other countries to advance shared strategic objectives. Despite President Donald Trump’s undermining of US alliances, his administration has built the Quad into a promising coalition, and has upgraded security ties with key Indo-Pacific partners, including Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Thailand, and India.
More fundamentally, the Quad’s consolidation is further evidence that the Xi regime’s aggressive policies are starting to backfire. International views of China have reached new lows this year. Yet the Chinese foreign ministry – doubling down on its “wolf warrior” diplomacy – recently dismissed as “nonsense” Pompeo’s plan to forge an international coalition against China. “He won’t see that day,” the ministry declared. “And his successors won’t see that day either, because that day will never, ever come.”But that day is coming. The Quad once merely symbolized an emerging international effort to establish a discreet check on Chinese power. If Xi’s increasing threats toward Taiwan lead to military action, then a grand international coalition, with the Quad at its core, will become inevitable.
The Quad Sharpens Its Edges | by Brahma Chellaney - Project Syndicate
Brahma Chellaney sees progress toward a more formal Indo-Pacific alliance accelerating in response to Chinese aggression.
www.project-syndicate.org
India will be most consequential partner for US in Indo-Pacific this century: Mark Esper
India will be the most consequential partner for the US in the Indo-Pacific this century, US Defence Secretary Mark Esper said Tuesday ahead of the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue between the two countries next week. Esper on Tuesday told a Washington audience that he and the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo would be travelling to New Delhi next week for the 2+2 Ministerial with their respective Indian counterparts Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar.
The exact dates of the ministerial have not been officially announced yet. “Secretary Pompeo and I will be there next week. It’s our second 2+2 with the Indians, the third ever for the United States and India. And it’s very important. India will well be the most consequential partner for us, I think, in the Indo Pacific for sure in this century,” Esper said in response to a question during a webinar organized by The Atlantic Council think-tank.
To another query, he said, “India is the world’s largest democracy, a very capable country, very talented people. And they face of every day with the Chinese aggression in the Himalayas specifically along that Line of Actual Control.”
“So, like so many other countries in that region, I’ve spoken with them (Indians). I’ve travelled from Mongolia all the way down south to New Zealand and Australia, from as far as Thailand to Palau in the Pacific island countries. They’ll recognize what China is doing,” he said, adding that in some cases, it’s very overt, and in many more cases it’s very opaque, what they’re doing.
“But they are putting political pressure, diplomatic pressure, and in some cases like India, military pressure on countries to bend to their way. We just can’t put up with that. We need all countries to follow those international rules-based order, to follow the norms that have served us so well,” Esper said.
The issue is not about China’s rise, it’s all about how they rise, said the Defense Secretary. “That’s what we talk about in all these forums. Last week we had a Five Eyes Forum, right, the US, New Zealand, UK, Canada, and UK. Anyways, we have the Five Eyes Forum and we talked about the challenges in the Indo-Pacific and how do we cooperate together, how do we confront these challenges to sovereignty, to the international rules-based order, to freedom of navigation,” he said.
The Indo-Pacific is a biogeographic region, comprising the Indian Ocean and the western and central Pacific Ocean, including the South China Sea. China claims nearly all of the South China Sea, though Taiwan, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam claim parts of it.
“So, you see a lot more closer collaboration come out, and this will be reflected in our meetings next week in New Delhi as well when we travel there,” Esper said, adding that there are a number of things that the US has been discussing with the Indians for some time. “We’ve made good progress on a number of them, but we’ll release information on that when it’s appropriate,” Esper said.
Formed in 2018, the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue meetings reflect the two country’s ever increasing convergence on the strategic issues. “Last year, we conducted our first ever tri-service military exercise, Tiger Triumph, with India. And in July, the USS Nimitz conducted a combined exercise with the Indian Navy as it transited the Indian Ocean. We also held our first-ever US-India defense cyber dialogue in September as we expand our collaboration into new domains. Together, these efforts will strengthen what may become one of the most consequential partnerships of the 21st century,” Esper said.
www.financialexpress.com
India will be the most consequential partner for the US in the Indo-Pacific this century, US Defence Secretary Mark Esper said Tuesday ahead of the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue between the two countries next week. Esper on Tuesday told a Washington audience that he and the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo would be travelling to New Delhi next week for the 2+2 Ministerial with their respective Indian counterparts Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar.
The exact dates of the ministerial have not been officially announced yet. “Secretary Pompeo and I will be there next week. It’s our second 2+2 with the Indians, the third ever for the United States and India. And it’s very important. India will well be the most consequential partner for us, I think, in the Indo Pacific for sure in this century,” Esper said in response to a question during a webinar organized by The Atlantic Council think-tank.
To another query, he said, “India is the world’s largest democracy, a very capable country, very talented people. And they face of every day with the Chinese aggression in the Himalayas specifically along that Line of Actual Control.”
“So, like so many other countries in that region, I’ve spoken with them (Indians). I’ve travelled from Mongolia all the way down south to New Zealand and Australia, from as far as Thailand to Palau in the Pacific island countries. They’ll recognize what China is doing,” he said, adding that in some cases, it’s very overt, and in many more cases it’s very opaque, what they’re doing.
“But they are putting political pressure, diplomatic pressure, and in some cases like India, military pressure on countries to bend to their way. We just can’t put up with that. We need all countries to follow those international rules-based order, to follow the norms that have served us so well,” Esper said.
The issue is not about China’s rise, it’s all about how they rise, said the Defense Secretary. “That’s what we talk about in all these forums. Last week we had a Five Eyes Forum, right, the US, New Zealand, UK, Canada, and UK. Anyways, we have the Five Eyes Forum and we talked about the challenges in the Indo-Pacific and how do we cooperate together, how do we confront these challenges to sovereignty, to the international rules-based order, to freedom of navigation,” he said.
The Indo-Pacific is a biogeographic region, comprising the Indian Ocean and the western and central Pacific Ocean, including the South China Sea. China claims nearly all of the South China Sea, though Taiwan, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam claim parts of it.
“So, you see a lot more closer collaboration come out, and this will be reflected in our meetings next week in New Delhi as well when we travel there,” Esper said, adding that there are a number of things that the US has been discussing with the Indians for some time. “We’ve made good progress on a number of them, but we’ll release information on that when it’s appropriate,” Esper said.
Formed in 2018, the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue meetings reflect the two country’s ever increasing convergence on the strategic issues. “Last year, we conducted our first ever tri-service military exercise, Tiger Triumph, with India. And in July, the USS Nimitz conducted a combined exercise with the Indian Navy as it transited the Indian Ocean. We also held our first-ever US-India defense cyber dialogue in September as we expand our collaboration into new domains. Together, these efforts will strengthen what may become one of the most consequential partnerships of the 21st century,” Esper said.
India will be most consequential partner for US in Indo-Pacific this century: Mark Esper
Esper on Tuesday told a Washington audience that he and the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo would be travelling to New Delhi next week for the 2+2 Ministerial with their respective Indian counterparts Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar.
www.financialexpress.com
There seems to be some chatter that India is going to join 5 eyes group shortly after signing of BECA, though nothing conclusive information released yet. Important to mention BECA is foundational agreement from US and many non-NATO countries have signed BECA with US in past. Hence signing of BECA shouldn't be seen as confirmation of 5 eyes arrangement joining, that's different altogether.
Unlikely. It's a club of Anglophone nations. If the French, Germans & Japanese - their closest allies since the end of WW-2 haven't been part of this club, compared to them we're Johnny come lately.
I always thought it was the Anglo-Saxon club. But if assuming there is a case I think Germany and France have geopolitical ambitions not in line with the anglos. While we don't have any geopolitical ambition apart from being the good guy and Japan is technically a vassal so that's why they haven't included the French and the Germans...
I agree. French and Germans were colonial rivals of UK while we, like all other members of 5 eyes, were a colony of British empire. Only thing that weakens our case in joining the club is the fact that large part of our population is not of British ancestry unlike of other members. Hence Britishers will always be reluctant to make us a part of that club. The core objective of the group also doesn't fall on line with our ambitions
( yes like France and Germany it is also true in our case).
There are many such surveillance groups headed by US agencies, India is part of at least one such group and Japan part of more than one group. They like to work behind the curtains and there is no boot on the ground especially.
Samir Saran said there might be announcement as early as next week.
Joining of France Germany and Japan is in the chatter in separate chats, no mention of India there though.
There is a unique chatter being heard nowadays about IPTO on the line of NATO. There was definite hint from US SecDef Mark Esper and Indian athorities recently, off course in non-official way.
I agree on the first part. We were a colony of the British and the Japanese were a pseudo-colony for the Americans. So it's more of that baggage. The case with us is our geopolitical ambitions don't align with any of the players apart from China. But our interests don't have any global ramifications like Turkey or Russia. Our interests are specifically located in the subcontinent not beyond it. And Pakistanis haven't give us enough breathing space to think out of the subcontinent. Iraq was our only real out-of-the-subcontinent geopolitical interest which was quickly destroyed by the Americans and we couldn't do anything. The Chinese had armed every so-called ally they had since the 50's on from Vietnam to NoKo to Pakistan which shows that the Chinese were serious. Unfortunately for us we were and are still cursed by the Nehruvian ideology of incompetence and the meme of vishwaguru which is literally just day-dreaming. So even our national ambitions are esoteric in nature and not based in reality. And since there is nothing concrete we don't have any real ambition. Even our objective in the sub-continent in defending India instead of actually dominating the sub-continent. If domination was our actual objective Pakistan wouldn't have been a problem that it is. That's why I support a U.S alliance because getting in an alliance with actual objectives might help our guys give them serious geopolitical aim instead of becoming a "vishwaguru" which will never happen.
By definition, India cannot join the Five Eyes because with one more nation it'd be the Six Eyes.
Note that there are already bigger clubs like Nine Eyes or Fourteen Eyes.
Note that there are already bigger clubs like Nine Eyes or Fourteen Eyes.
It's impossible for India to join the Five Eyes. That's even closer than an alliance with the US.
Five Eyes has special connotations compared to all other Eyes. They are a band of nations that say yes to anything the US does. It's quite unbelievable the extent to which PR analysts are going for to manage the opinion of people towards a no-holds barred alliance with the US.
There are other loose goupings which are possible though, like a "Five Eyes Plus One Against China" (with India being the Plus One).
But the Five Eyes itself is far too special for India to be a part of.
Agreed, like BRIC became BRICS. And yes, I have highlighted about other groups as well in post 273 (one of such international group headed is by US NSA, from India side NTRO used to be there, I don't know who is leading India there now.). Regarding 5 eyes expansion, there are 6-7 well known twitter handles who are saying about the extension and probable new joiners, though no factual confirmation yet as stated in post 268 itself. It's still a rumour as of now and will remain so till confirmation from relevant authorities.
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