The Quad (US, Japan, India, Australia Security Dialogue) : Updates and Discussions
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I'm not commenting diplomatically because that's outside this realm even though it's obviously mixed in.
I can't help but think Indians overrate France's military stuff on impulse after Soviet Union collapsed. It's in the DNA of India to want to not be too dependent on anyone. But if the choice is dependency and "beating" China versus independence and "losing."
It's not even close guys.
Realpoltik sometimes means the opposite of what you conventionally think of as realpoltik and why it called that. Sometime the situation calls for tight coordination and cooperation.
I can't help but think Indians overrate France's military stuff on impulse after Soviet Union collapsed. It's in the DNA of India to want to not be too dependent on anyone. But if the choice is dependency and "beating" China versus independence and "losing."
It's not even close guys.
Realpoltik sometimes means the opposite of what you conventionally think of as realpoltik and why it called that. Sometime the situation calls for tight coordination and cooperation.
Your points would make sense if we had a reliable partner. Honestly after the rigging of elections with Biden U.S can't be considered a reliable partner.
The French products are underrated in my personal opinion. Ofcourse they are not as good as American top of the line hardware but they are still one of the best.
There has been an overreaction to AUKUS and people are seeing too much in the alliance when it's just a way for the u.k to wriggle inside the quad. Our obsession with maintaining strategic autonomy usually leads to such rigid stances but that's to be expected from a country with a bad colonial experience..
First, let's get technology out of the way. While America has spent more on technology, it doesn't mean France is no slouch. So yeah, while America's overall capabilities are superior, but when you actually break it down to on a case by case basis, the scale tips evenly. Take the Rafale for example, it has some unique weapons that the US today has no equivalent of, like the Meteor, MICA and AASM. These three weapons alone provide a pilot the ability to use tactics that are not available to the USAF. Meteor is the Meteor. MICA is all-aspect, so it can engage any target 360 deg around the aircraft. AASM allows the pilot to shoot at targets behind obstacles, like a hill, by climbing over it.
The USAF compensates that with other capabilities, but those come at a cost that's not affordable or available to many. Then there are other weapons that stick out, like the PAAMS and MMP. While the US doesn't have a direct equivalent of the PAAMS, they are behind by 2 generations with the Javelin compared to the MMP. So, the French have stuff that we need. Similarly, unique to the US, we have bought the Apache, Chinook, drones, transport aircraft, P8, systems the French do not possess. This is how we even things out. Our main suppliers are Russia, US, France and Israel, and we buy unique systems from all 4 countries.
As for not being dependent on anyone, this is a policy choice taken right after independence. We have no intention of allying with anyone at this time. I don't know if it will change in the future, but our defence modernisation and relations center around it. Simply put, we have no intention of relying on any of the four during wartime, except in intelligence and logistics, and even the latter is mainly because India is still a poor country, making it a temporary situation.
So when you say...
But if the choice is dependency and "beating" China versus independence and "losing."
We are making that very decision. We are not buying American because it is America, we are buying American because it was the best offered. The Apache and Chinook beat their Russian equivalents on their own merit, it could have easily gone the other way.
We do make political deals, but those are for either cost considerations for contemporary technologies, like the SIG716, AK-203 and Ka-226T deals, or for unique or very high end capability, like the CBU-105, FGFA and P8. So if America wants political deals, it's going to have to focus on unique and high end capabilities.
During wartime, we are not expecting the US or France to come to our rescue. And one of our main goals for cooperating in the ocean is so we do not shoot at each other when either of us are at war with China.
Technology and with it economic power is the foundation of everything. More so than military power. I hope to get some cooperation on that front.
People are incorrectly assuming that an alliance with the US will get us critical technologies. But the US is never going to help a future potential rival.
It's quite funny. When India and US signed a bilateral deal, it was called DTI, Defense Trade Initiative. But for India, the T stood for Technology, because India wanted technology, but the US was adamant the T stood for Trade. So it was changed to DTTI, with both technology and trade in it. But this itself was a giveaway that the US only wanted India to import American tech. I have no clue why people are expecting we will also get nuclear reactors from the US just because they recently signed a deal for this tech with America's 52nd state.
Fact Sheet: Quad Leaders’ Summit
On September 24, President Biden hosted Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga of Japan at the White House for the first-ever in-person Leaders’ Summit of the Quad. The leaders have put forth ambitious initiatives that deepen our ties and advance practical cooperation on 21st-century challenges: ending the COVID-19 pandemic, including by increasing production and access to safe and effective vaccines; promoting high-standards infrastructure; combatting the climate crisis; partnering on emerging technologies, space, and cybersecurity; and cultivating next-generation talent in all of our countries.COVID and Global Health
Quad leaders recognize that the most immediate threat to lives and livelihoods in our four countries and the world is the COVID-19 pandemic. And so in March, Quad leaders launched the Quad Vaccine Partnership, to help enhance equitable access to safe and effective vaccines in the Indo-Pacific and the world. Since March, the Quad has taken bold actions to expand safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing capacity, donated vaccines from our own supply, and worked together to assist the Indo-Pacific in responding to the pandemic. The Quad Vaccine Experts Group remains the heart of our cooperation, meeting regularly to brief on the latest pandemic trends and coordinate our collective COVID-19 response across the Indo-Pacific, including by piloting the Quad Partnership COVID-19 Dashboard. We welcome President Biden’s September 22 COVID-19 Summit, and acknowledge that our work continues. The Quad will:
- Help Vaccinate the World: As Quad countries, we have pledged to donate more than 1.2 billion vaccine doses globally, in addition to the doses we have financed through COVAX. To date we have collectively delivered nearly 79 million safe and effective vaccine doses to the Indo-Pacific region. Our Vaccine Partnership remains on track to expand manufacturing at Biological E Ltd. this fall, so that it can produce at least 1 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines by the end of 2022. As a first step towards that new capacity, the leaders will announce bold actions that will immediately help the Indo-Pacific in its quest to end the pandemic. We recognize the importance of open and secure supply chains for vaccine production. The Quad welcomed India’s announcement to resume exports of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines, including to COVAX, beginning in October 2021. Through $3.3 billion in the COVID-19 Crisis Response Emergency Support Loan program, Japan will continue to help regional countries to procure safe, effective, and quality-assured vaccines. Australia will deliver $212 million in grant aid to purchase vaccines for Southeast Asia and the Pacific. In addition, Australia will allocate $219 million to support last-mile vaccine rollouts and lead in coordinating the Quad’s last-mile delivery efforts in those regions. Quad member countries will coordinate with the ASEAN Secretariat, the COVAX Facility, and other relevant organizations. We will continue to strengthen and support the life-saving work of international organizations and partnerships, including the WHO, COVAX, Gavi, CEPI, and UNICEF; and national governments. At the same time, the leaders are fully committed to strengthening vaccine confidence and trust. To that end, Quad countries will host an event at the 75th World Health Assembly (WHA) dedicated to combatting hesitancy.
- Save Lives Now: Together as the Quad, we are committed to taking further action in the Indo-Pacific to save lives now. Japan, through Japan Bank for International Cooperation, will work with India to enhance key investments of approximately $100 million in the healthcare sector related to COVID-19, including vaccine and treatment drugs. We will utilize the Quad Vaccine Experts Group and convene as needed to urgently consult in relation to our emergency assistance.
- Build Back Better Health Security: The Quad commits to better preparing our countries and the world for the next pandemic. We will continue to build coordination in our broader COVID-19 response and health-security efforts in the Indo-Pacific, and we will jointly build and conduct at least one pandemic preparedness tabletop or exercise in 2022. We will also further strengthen our science and technology cooperation in support of the 100-Day Mission—to have safe and effective vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics available within 100 days—now and into the future. This includes collaboration on current and future clinical trials, such as launching additional sites for the international Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines (ACTIV) trials, which can expedite investigation of promising new vaccines and therapeutics, while at the same time supporting countries in the region to improve their capacity to undertake scientifically sound clinical research. We will support the call for a “global pandemic radar” and will improve our viral genomic surveillance, including by working together to strengthen and expand the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS).
Building on the G7’s announcement of Build Back Better World (B3W)—an infrastructure partnership focused on digital connectivity, climate, health and health security, and gender equality infrastructure—the Quad will rally expertise, capacity, and influence to strengthen ongoing infrastructure initiatives in the region and identify new opportunities to meet the needs there. The Quad will:
- Launch the Quad Infrastructure Coordination Group: Building on existing leadership from Quad partners on high-standards infrastructure, a senior Quad infrastructure coordination group will meet regularly to share assessments of regional infrastructure needs and coordinate respective approaches to deliver transparent, high-standards infrastructure. The group will also coordinate technical assistance and capacity-building efforts, including with regional partners, to ensure our efforts are mutually reinforcing and complementary in meeting the significant infrastructure demand in the Indo-Pacific.
- Lead on High-Standards Infrastructure: Quad partners are leaders in building quality infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific region. Our complementary approaches leverage both public and private resources to achieve maximum impact. Since 2015, Quad partners have provided more than $48 billion in official finance for infrastructure in the region. This represents thousands of projects, including capacity-building, across more than 30 countries in support of rural development, health infrastructure, water supply and sanitation, renewable power generation (e.g., wind, solar, and hydro), telecommunications, road transportation, and more. Our infrastructure partnership will amplify these contributions and further catalyze private-sector investment in the region.
Quad countries share serious concern with the August Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report findings on the latest climate science, which has significant implications for climate action. To address the climate crisis with the urgency it demands, Quad countries will focus their efforts on the themes of climate ambition, including working on 2030 targets for national emissions and renewable energy, clean-energy innovation and deployment, as well as adaptation, resilience, and preparedness. Quad countries commit to pursue enhanced actions in the 2020s to meet anticipated energy demand and decarbonize at pace and scale to keep our climate goals within reach in the Indo-Pacific. Additional efforts include working together on methane abatement in the natural-gas sector and on establishing responsible and resilient clean-energy supply chains. The Quad will:
- Form a Green-Shipping Network: Quad countries represent major maritime shipping hubs with some of the largest ports in the world. As a result, Quad countries are uniquely situated to deploy green-port infrastructure and clean-bunkering fuels at scale. Quad partners will organize their work by launching a Quad Shipping Taskforce and will invite leading ports, including Los Angeles, Mumbai Port Trust, Sydney (Botany), and Yokohama, to form a network dedicated to greening and decarbonizing the shipping value chain. The Quad Shipping Task Force will organize its work around several lines of efforts and aims to establish two to three Quad low-emission or zero-emission shipping corridors by 2030.
- Establish a Clean-Hydrogen Partnership: The Quad will announce a clean-hydrogen partnership to strengthen and reduce costs across all elements of the clean-hydrogen value chain, leveraging existing bilateral and multilateral hydrogen initiatives in other fora. This includes technology development and efficiently scaling up the production of clean hydrogen (hydrogen produced from renewable energy, fossil fuels with carbon capture and sequestration, and nuclear for those who choose to deploy it), identification and development of delivery infrastructure to safely and efficiently transport, store, and distribute clean hydrogen for end-use applications, and stimulating market demand to accelerate trade in clean hydrogen in the Indo-Pacific region.
- Enhance Climate Adaptation, Resilience, and Preparedness: Quad countries commit to increasing the Indo-Pacific region’s resilience to climate change by improving critical climate information-sharing and disaster-resilient infrastructure. The Quad countries will convene a Climate & Information Services Task Force and build a new technical facility through the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure that will provide technical assistance in small island developing states.
The students of today will be the leaders, innovators, and pioneers of tomorrow. To build ties among the next generation of scientists and technologists, Quad partners are proud to announce the Quad Fellowship: a first-of-its-kind scholarship program, operated and administered by a philanthropic initiative and in consultation with a non-governmental task force comprised of leaders from each Quad country. This program will bring together exceptional American, Japanese, Australian, and Indian masters and doctoral students in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics to study in the United States. This new fellowship will develop a network of science and technology experts committed to advancing innovation and collaboration in the private, public, and academic sectors, in their own nations and among Quad countries. The program will build a foundational understanding among Quad Scholars of one another’s societies and cultures through cohort-wide trips to each Quad country and robust programming with each country’s top scientists, technologists, and politicians. The Quad will:
- Launch the Quad Fellowship: The Fellowship will sponsor 100 students per year—25 from each Quad country—to pursue masters and doctoral degrees at leading STEM graduate universities in the United States. It will serve as one of the world’s leading graduate fellowships; but uniquely, the Quad Fellowship will focus on STEM and bring together the top minds of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. Schmidt Futures, a philanthropic initiative, will operate and administer the fellowship program in consultation with a non-governmental taskforce, comprised of academic, foreign policy, and private sector leaders from each Quad country. Founding sponsors of the fellowship program include Accenture, Blackstone, Boeing, Google, Mastercard, and Western Digital, and the program welcomes additional sponsors interested in supporting the Fellowship.
Quad leaders are committed to working together to foster an open, accessible, and secure technology ecosystem. Since establishing a new critical and emerging technologies working group in March, we have organized our work around four efforts: technical standards, 5G diversification and deployment, horizon-scanning, and technology supply chains. Today, the Quad leaders launch a statement of principles on technology, along with new efforts that together will advance critical and emerging technologies shaped by our shared democratic values and respect for universal human rights. The Quad will:
- Publish a Quad Statement of Principles: After months of collaboration, the Quad will launch a statement of principles on technology design, development, governance, and use that we hope will guide not only the region but the world towards responsible, open, high-standards innovation.
- Establish Technical Standards Contact Groups: The Quad will establish contact groups on Advanced Communications and Artificial Intelligence focusing on standards-development activities as well as foundational pre-standardization research.
- Launch a Semiconductor Supply Chain Initiative: Quad partners will launch a joint initiative to map capacity, identify vulnerabilities, and bolster supply-chain security for semiconductors and their vital components. This initiative will help ensure Quad partners support a diverse and competitive market that produces the secure critical technologies essential for digital economies globally.
- Support 5G Deployment and Diversification: To support the critical role of Quad governments in fostering and promoting a diverse, resilient, and secure telecommunications ecosystem, the Quad has launched a Track 1.5 industry dialogue on Open RAN deployment and adoption, coordinated by the Open RAN Policy Coalition. Quad partners will jointly facilitate enabling environments for 5G diversification, including with efforts related to testing and test facilities.
- Monitor Biotechnology Scanning: The Quad will monitor trends in critical and emerging technologies, starting with advanced biotechnologies, including synthetic biology, genome sequencing, and biomanufacturing. In the process, we will identify related opportunities for cooperation.
Building on longstanding collaboration among our four countries on cybersecurity, the Quad will launch new efforts to bolster critical-infrastructure resilience against cyber threats by bringing together the expertise of our nations to drive domestic and international best practices. The Quad will:
- Launch a Quad Senior Cyber Group: Leader-level experts will meet regularly to advance work between government and industry on driving continuous improvements in areas including adoption and implementation of shared cyber standards; development of secure software; building workforce and talent; and promoting the scalability and cybersecurity of secure and trustworthy digital infrastructure.
Quad countries are among the world’s scientific leaders, including in space. Today, the Quad will begin space cooperation for the first time with a new working group. In particular, our partnership will exchange satellite data, focused on monitoring and adapting to climate change, disaster preparedness, and responding to challenges in shared domains. The Quad will:
- Share Satellite Data to Protect the Earth and its Waters: Our four countries will start discussions to exchange Earth observation satellite data and analysis on climate-change risks and the sustainable use of oceans and marine resources. Sharing this data will help Quad countries to better adapt to climate change and to build capacity in other Indo-Pacific states that are at grave climate risk, in coordination with the Quad Climate Working group.
- Enable Capacity-Building for Sustainable Development: The Quad countries will also enable capacity-building in space-related domains in other Indo-Pacific countries to manage risks and challenges. The Quad countries will work together to support, strengthen, and enhance space applications and technologies of mutual interest.
- Consult on Norms and Guidelines: We will also consult on norms, guidelines, principles, and rules for ensuring the long-term sustainability of the outer space environment.
Fact Sheet: Quad Leaders’ Summit | The White House
The 'Quad' is on the rise in Asia-Pacific
On Friday, U.S. President Joe Biden will host Prime Ministers Narendra Modi of India, Scott Morrison of Australia and Yoshihide Suga of Japan at the White House for the first in-person Quad Summit.They'll focus on "deepening our ties and advancing practical cooperation" on Covid-19, the climate crisis, technology, cyberspace and "a free and open Indo-Pacific," according to a White House statement.
As with just about every statement from the Quad, it makes no mention of China. But worries about China are at the root of the Quad. Since Xi Jinping became China’s leader in 2012, each of the four democracies has had serious run-ins with China on trade or territorial claims or both.
The "quadrilateral security dialogue" among Australia, India, Japan and the United States was once an informal, ongoing discussion between senior officials about naval cooperation. It's morphing into top-level strategic cooperation on tech, the global economy, security and the pandemic.
China objects to the Quad as an attempt to derail its rise as a global power.
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China is increasingly hemming itself in. Whatever objectives it might harbor for the Indo-Pacific, it's getting in its own way.
Ali Wyne, senior analyst for Global Macro at Eurasia Group
"Forming closed and exclusive 'cliques' targeting other countries runs counter to the trend of the times and deviates from the expectation of regional countries," the country's foreign ministry said last week in response to the White House meeting. "It thus wins no support and is doomed to fail."
But even as it expresses confidence that the Quad will fail, Beijing takes aggressive actions that push the Quad countries closer together, according to several policy experts who spoke to CNBC.
"China is increasingly hemming itself in. Whatever objectives it might harbor for the Indo-Pacific, it's getting in its own way," said Ali Wyne, senior analyst for Global Macro at Eurasia Group.
To get a sense of what's next, CNBC in February came up with a question — What is the future of the Quad? — and ran it through an advanced game theory model. The effort generated specific predictions about the four Quad nations, China and other countries and territories with a stake in the Indo-Pacific.
Game theory is an obscure concept to most people. In short, it tries to apply science to strategy. Game theorists construct models of situations involving competition between groups or individuals.
They then apply computing power to predict how individuals will interact in the model and what outcomes will be.
The use of game theory in CNBC's Quad project comes as policymakers, investors and the risk-management industry are trying to get more quantitative rigor into their forecasts — in line with the rise of quantitative analysis across other sectors including trading and investing. Globally, algorithms are being relied upon to do more and more.
But game theory is not magic. It has limitations, which you can read more about here. Significantly, at least two of the policy analysts who helped build the model used for this report do not agree with some of the predictions it made.
But in the world of game theory, at least, the model implemented for this report is a well-regarded one. The methods developed by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, of New York University and the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, were used by the CIA on more than 1,200 projects in the 1980s.
According to a declassified CIA report published by Yale University Press in 1995, Bueno de Mesquita's former firm Policon had a 90% accuracy rate on predictions it made for the agency and generated greater detail than traditional analysis. Bueno de Mesquita claims a higher accuracy rate on projects undertaken for Fortune 500 clients since then.
Jonathan Grady, principal of start-up consulting firm The Canary Group and a protégé of Bueno de Mesquita, built the game theory model for this report. It was designed specifically to predict the Quad nations' future together in maritime security.
In consultation with Bueno de Mesquita, Grady gathered input from 37 policy experts and former government officials. You can see a list of them here.
The model built for this report included almost 300 individual "players" — senior government officials and national institutions — spread among the Quad nations, China and 10 other countries and territories. CNBC's Quad project is the largest computation ever run by the Bueno de Mesquita model in its history — more complex than any projects undertaken for the CIA or corporate clients.
What follow are the model's predictions, and what political analysts say about them.
U.S. President Joe Biden and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken participate in a virtual meeting with leaders of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue countries March 12, 2021.
Chinese President Xi Jinping with a naval honor guard.
The big Quad predictions
Three major forecasts covering roughly the next two years came out of the model, which was designed to focus on security and maritime issues:
- Leaders in Australia, India, Japan and the United States will become much more focused on Indo-Pacific security, and the countries will act in an increasingly coordinated way. However, they won't take any actions as a group that are more aggressive than they take already. For instance, they will not carry out naval exercises as a group within the South China Sea, which China claims as its own.
- Xi will pressure each of the Quad leaders separately in an effort to create a wedge between them, but none will respond to him. Some senior leaders in China, including within the military, will begin to favor a more conciliatory approach toward the Quad. But they'll run into hard nationalists at the top of the Chinese Communist Party. China will make no serious concessions to the Quad on its maritime claims.
- Other countries will align with the Quad or come close to its position on security, including the United Kingdom, Canada, Singapore, France and South Korea. That could come in the form of joining naval exercises with some or all of the Quad countries, or openly supporting the group's security-related positions. Other countries, such as Vietnam, will edge closer to the Quad than they are now.
Experts who spoke to CNBC about the results agreed across the board with the first conclusion, that the Quad will strengthen as a group.
"The baseline conclusion about the Quad becoming a permanent part of the architecture of Asia is right. I think it's baked into the politics of the four countries," said Michael Green, senior vice president for Asia and Japan chair at bipartisan research organization CSIS. "It makes good politics in all four countries."
Part of the reason it makes good politics domestically in the Quad countries is that China has become more assertive toward each of them since Xi took over as leader.
Territorial disputes between China and Japan have sharpened as China's military has become more active in the East China Sea. China slapped major trade restrictions on Australian goods after that country called for an inquiry into Covid. Troops from China and India clashed in the Himalayas, resulting in 20 dead Indian soldiers and a backlash against Chinese tech products. And of course, the U.S.-China trade war has shown no signs of abating.
The model's results "reinforce the extent to which China is its own principal challenger," said Wyne at Eurasia Group. "It is actively contributing to its own diplomatic and military encirclement."
Each of the Quad countries increasingly sees it as necessary to design everything from security agreements to supply chains that work around China.
Japan's central role
China often presents the Quad as a U.S.-dominated endeavor, and the Biden administration has certainly increased the United States' leadership role in the group. But the group is more complicated than that. Each Quad country has its own reasons to work with the others. Those reasons are increasing.
Take, for example, Japan.
China's rhetoric — as well as most U.S. media coverage on the Quad — overlooks the central role Japan and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have played in creating the group and keeping it alive.
For years, Japan has seen it as a good idea to build its circle of friends. India, in particular, makes sense from an economic perspective. Each country has something the other would like more of: Japan has capital and know-how, while India has booming growth and a growing population. And they're both democracies.
"From the economic point of view, Japan regards India as the most important future partner. Its population is growing, and it has a tremendous economic potential," said Narushige Michishita, professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.
From a security perspective, the United States may be more cooperative with others under Biden than it was under former President Donald Trump, but its military is "globally deployed, while China's is regionally deployed," said Michishita. "So if two can't do the job, well, look at India. Add friends."
Disagreement on China predictions
The game theory forecasts about China's internal politics are the ones that generated the most interest among the experts who helped build the model — and the most disagreement.
"The China factor is the biggest bit of the story. It's the biggest uncertainty, it's the driving factor for everything," said Dhruva Jaishankar, executive director of Observer Research Foundation America. "If the takeaway is that this could lead to greater factionalism in the Chinese leadership, that for me is the headline."
The model did not predict that China would become friendly to the Quad concept — far from it. But it did indicate that different points of view will evolve within China's leadership.
The model predicted more conciliatory sentiment in parts of the foreign policy leadership and in parts of the Chinese military. However, officials on the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party will maintain firm inflexibility toward the Quad. That committee comprises the top leadership of the party.
China has never signaled division within its government when it comes to the Quad or, for that matter, much of anything else. China's foreign ministry last week positioned the Quad as being opposed to its development — and made clear its belief that China's development is good for Asia and the world.
"I want to stress that China is not only a major engine of economic growth in the Asia-Pacific, but also a staunch defender of regional peace and stability," said ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian. "China's development strengthens the force for world peace and is a boon for regional prosperity and development."
A lack of real visibility on Beijing's inner workings is what makes some policy experts dubious about the model's forecast.
"When I was in the White House, we could have told you who's who within China," said Michael Green, who worked for the U.S. National Security Council during the administration of George W. Bush. "It's much more opaque now."
Green suspects there's less debate within China now than there was before Xi came to power, and "people are afraid to give him bad news." Xi has a dominant position over the Standing Committee of the Politburo, Green pointed out, and he's the only civilian leader on the Central Military Commission. "It's very hard for the foreign minister to compete with him on grand strategy," he said.
Certainly Chinese intra-party politics include factions, and elements of the Chinese military may sometimes be at odds with the political leadership, according to Larry Diamond, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. But those things are typical of countries everywhere. None of it means China has "independent power players," he said.
"Xi is very dominant, and soft-liners are not going to be able to challenge him," he said.
Even if Xi were to be swayed by officials counseling conciliation toward the Quad, his personal political situation may not allow it.
"Xi has gone so far down the road of militarization of the South China Sea and the promise of China greatness, China's rise to hegemony in the Indo-Pacific, and essentially the recovery of Taiwan, that he can't seriously moderate … without falling from power or risking it," Diamond said.
But the resistance China has encountered on economic, trade and territorial issues — even from countries that rely on Chinese trade — appears to have genuinely surprised Beijing.
"Australia's pushback [after getting hit by trade sanctions] surprised China. So did India's assertiveness at the border," said Vietnam expert Duy Trinh at Princeton University's Niehaus Center for Globalization & Governance.
"I think it speaks to … some elements of the Chinese Communist Party that their hawkish stance in recent years has been challenged, and quite resolutely challenged, by other countries," he said. "It's not something they can just do for free."
A massive fleet of fishing boats sets off for the South China Sea from Yangjiang, China, in August 2021. The South China Sea is one of the world's most commercially important bodies of water, home not just to fisheries but to critical global shipping lanes.
U.S. President Joe Biden, Japan Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, India Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australia Prime Minister Scott Morrison at a virtual Quad meeting in March 2021, as seen at Suga's official residence in Tokyo.
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When I was in the White House, we could have told you who's who within China. It's much more opaque now.
Michael Green, Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair, CSIS
Kamala Harris in Hanoi, Vietnam, in August 2021. The U.S. vice president is seen increasing her focus on Indo-Pacific security issues and the Quad.
Other countries, other predictions
Sympathizing with the Quad doesn't require being in it.
The game theory model built by Jonathan Grady scrutinized a total of 15 countries and territories, all of them seen as influencing the Quad's future to one extent or another. The computation predicted that some of them will align themselves with the Quad on security issues or come close to doing so.
The United Kingdom, Canada and Singapore, the model said, will align with the Quad on maritime security. France and South Korea will come close to the Quad's position, though with less uniform agreement among their chief policymakers. Vietnam will edge toward the Quad without adopting its stance completely, according to the model. The Philippines will signal an alignment with the Quad, the model said, but President Rodrigo Duterte looks likely to move back toward China after national elections next year.
To be sure, whatever enthusiasm France had for the Quad appears to have dropped since the game theory model was run in August. A decision by Australia to ax a $40 billion deal to buy submarines from a French manufacturer angered Paris and "completely changes French calculus in the region, in particular when it comes to any form of cooperation with the Quad," said Pierre Morcos, a visiting fellow at the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at CSIS. His comments came as France pulled its envoys from the U.S. and Australia.
"This does not mean that France will diminish its commitment to the region, but any cooperation with the U.S. and Australia will be difficult in the near future given the anger of the French authorities," said Morcos, who worked previously for the French foreign service.
Still, the analysts who spoke to CNBC uniformly agreed that the Quad would find friends in both Asia and Europe. That prediction "reflects what I'm hearing from Korea, the military of the Philippines — and the Dutch, by the way," said Green of CSIS.
Those experts talked to CNBC — and Grady ran the model — before news last week that the United Kingdom will join a new security partnership with the United States and Australia that will, among other things, equip Australia with nuclear-powered submarines.
As is typical, the three countries downplayed the notion that the partnership is aimed at China.
China was not convinced, calling the move "extremely irresponsible."
"Relevant countries should abandon the outdated Cold War zero-sum mentality and narrow-minded geopolitical perception, respect the will of the people of regional countries, and do more to contribute to regional peace, stability and development," said Zhao Lijian of China's Foreign Ministry. "Otherwise, they will only end up shooting themselves in the foot."
It gets harder for China to convincingly argue that the Quad is a front for U.S. efforts to obstruct its development when there's broadening support for the Quad on freedom of navigation, cybersecurity and other issues, Morcos said.
"For years it was able to describe such pushback as a U.S. reaction to China's rise and a form of concern in Washington that it's losing its hegemony in the region," said Morcos. "But the fact that more and more countries are joining these concerns is a demonstration to China that its behaviors are not acceptable to the international community at large."
Peter Jennings, the executive director of defense think tank the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told CNBC's "Street Signs" that the deal wouldn't have happened if not for China's "aggressive and assertive policies."
The Quad is not an alliance
Two experts who helped populate the model and spoke to CNBC afterward said that a perhaps ironic strength of the Quad is that it is not, in fact, a military alliance.
Because they're usually ratified in a parliament or legislature, military alliances are heavily structured organizations. In important ways, that makes them more rigid than an informal grouping like the Quad.
Russia and Taiwan
That loose sort of non-alliance has a precursor: the one between China and Russia.
China and Russia do not have a formal alliance, but they frequently work in concert on international issues.
The game theory model indicated that elements in the Security Council of Russia will favor China softening its stance toward the Quad, but Russian President Vladimir Putin won't go that far. The Russian president, and Russia's leadership at large, were shown losing interest in the Quad as the game progressed.
Dhruva Jaishankar of Observer Research Foundation America doubts that Russia would deviate from China's position, noting that Russia is the weaker of the two countries and commercially dependent on China.
Then there's Taiwan. If there's one place in the Indo-Pacific that worries politicians, policy analysts and China-watchers generally, it's the self-governing island that China claims as its own. More than one expert who helped populate the Quad model, including Oriana Skylar Mastro, center fellow of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, has expressed deep concern that China could use armed force to take Taiwan.
Taiwan is a democracy, but Beijing claims it as a breakaway province and has repeatedly sent warplanes into Taiwan's air defense zone over the last year. The Quad game wasn't designed to examine that situation, but it did model Taiwan's government vis a vis the Quad.
Taiwan is seen staying close to the Quad in terms of its policy positions, but its stance changed over the course of the game and became more flexible.
The game predicted that Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party would begin with an assertive attitude toward China overall, but over time, some members would soften their position.
The model identified divergence among DPP leaders when it comes to how hawkish Taiwan should be toward China. Perhaps significantly, President Tsai Ing-wen adopts a more conciliatory tone toward China than does Vice President Lai Ching-te, according to the forecast.
Kamala Harris
In the White House, the model predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris' focus on the Quad issue will sharpen and become "highly resolute, especially compared to other stakeholders in the White House," according to Grady. That's in the context of a White House that becomes more focused on Indo-Pacific security overall.
Harris visited Singapore and Vietnam in late August, a week after the game theory model turned in its predictions.
Vietnam and China have conflicting claims in the South China Sea, and Harris told officials in Hanoi that the United States and Vietnam should find ways to "pressure … Beijing to abide by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and to challenge its bullying and excessive maritime claims."
China Foreign Minister Wang Yi followed behind Harris with his own visits to Vietnam and Singapore, as well as Cambodia and South Korea, about two weeks later.
"In some ways, she represents a bridge between the progressive and establishment Democrats," said Jaishankar. "If she starts adopting a position closer to President Biden and his advisors, that would obviously have implications for the Democrats' foreign policy over the next decade or so."
Afghanistan and 'America First'
Most analysts who spoke to CNBC held the view that the disastrous American withdrawal from Afghanistan would not hurt U.S. political efforts in the Indo-Pacific. On the contrary, they said Biden is making good on the "pivot to Asia" that the Obama administration talked about at length but could never make happen.
If America's partners in Asia are worried about anything, according to Ali Wyne at Eurasia Group, it's whether the United States will commit to Asia fully enough. They'll want to see the United States help shore up economic resilience in the region outside China, for example.
And, Wyne said, they will worry about whether Biden's policies survive the 2024 election.
The "America First" administration of Donald Trump was uninterested in multilateral agreements in general, and was indifferent or openly belligerent toward allies like South Korea and Germany in particular.
Beijing will be watching. As Chinese state media argued of the United States and Trump in 2019, "no one wants a partner that is arrogant, domineering and capricious."
The Quad's flexibility makes it easier for outside countries to cooperate with the Quad on one specific issue while ignoring another. It even allows the Quad countries themselves to pick and choose what they'll work on together.
"It's like a dimmer, not an off-on switch," said CSIS's Green. "It's a flexible tool, including who joins. It's flexible for a Korea or a New Zealand or a UK. If they decide they're upset with China, they can send a frigate to the next exercise."
“
It's a flexible tool, including who joins. It's flexible for a Korea or a New Zealand or a UK. If they decide they're upset with China, they can send a frigate to the next exercise.
Michael Green, Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair, CSIS
South Korea and Japan are especially dependent on shipping lanes that traverse the South China Sea, linking them to the Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf and beyond.
The USS Carl Vinson transits the Philippine Sea with two Japanese warship escorts.
The Quad and the global economy
An irony of the Quad is that each of its members is a major trading partner with China, as are all the countries that the game theory model predicted will align with the Quad. China is the world's biggest exporter and biggest trading nation overall.
China's central place in the world’s economy puts limits on how far an informal security arrangement like the Quad can go. But recent statements from the Quad and the White House, made in March and last week respectively, make clear the group's intention to work together in the economic arena.
The Quad's commitment to a "free, open rules-based order, rooted in international law" refers to trade as much as security. Freedom of navigation, probably the Quad's longest-running issue, is about trade goods and fishing fleets moving without obstruction on the high seas.
Michishita of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies argued that the Quad has to develop a mechanism for helping countries that are hit by Chinese trade sanctions — arguably Beijing's most potent political weapon, and one it has used at one time or another against Australia, Japan, South Korea and others.
China has massive clout on trade around the planet, including with each member of the Quad individually.
But the Quad countries have unique economic strengths. The United States remains the world's largest and most dynamic economy. Japan is the third-biggest economy and a technology power. India has a burgeoning economy, and it has made itself an indispensable part of the vaccine-manufacturing business. Australia, with a population of only 25 million, enjoys a trade surplus with China thanks to its critical natural resources and agricultural exports.
Goodman speculated that the Quad is trying to figure out how to "operationalize" those economic strengths. That would mean pioneering the technologies of the future such as semiconductors, biotech and artificial intelligence. Just as importantly, he said, it would mean setting the "rules, standards and norms" around those technologies.
This year the Quad and the White House have gotten explicit about cooperation on infrastructure, emerging technologies and the economic recovery from the pandemic.
The Quad wants to establish rules around the economy. That's what big, multinational groups do — or at least the ones that really matter, like the G-7 group of leading industrial nations and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group, or APEC.
"Just in terms of analyzing the stuff going on here in Washington, there's no question the Biden administration has made a deliberate statement that the Quad and the G-7 are the two core organizing bodies that they're going to center their work on the global system around," said Matthew Goodman, who served in the Obama and Bush administrations and is now senior vice president for economics at CSIS.
“
There's no question the Biden administration has made a deliberate statement that the Quad and the G-7 are the two core organizing bodies that they're going to center their work on the global system around.
Matthew Goodman, Senior Vice President for Economics, CSIS
How game theory works
Game theory uses computing and logic to predict what people will do when they're competing against each other. It creates a model that forecasts the decisions and counter-decisions within a scenario or "game" between those people, who are called "players."
Game theory can't do things like predict elections or forecast the stock market. It's designed to scrutinize discrete scenarios that involve defined groups — corporate merger talks between companies, for instance, or high-level diplomatic negotiations between countries.
How the model was built
The game theory model used to build the analysis for this report was designed by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a professor at New York University and senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution who began developing his model in the late 1970s.
The Quad project focuses specifically on the maritime security part of the relationship between the United States, Japan, India and Australia. It doesn't forecast other Quad initiatives.
Jonathan Grady of Canary Group, a former student of Bueno de Mesquita, carried out in-depth interviews with 37 recognized specialists on the internal politics of the four Quad nations, China, and 10 other countries and territories. Included in the group were former government officials, political scientists, think tank analysts and others. (See List of experts, below.)
The Quad project first identified an "issue scale" — a ranked list of about 20 hypothetical outcomes for the Quad. The scale ranged between extremes: all the way from the Quad shutting down at one end, to an aggressive Quad that creates security guarantees for Taiwan at the other end.
The 'players'
The political specialists identified about 300 key "players" across the 15 countries and territories modeled. Most players were individuals, but some were institutions such as industry sectors or parts of the news media. The model "scored" where each of the players stands on the issue scale. It also scored each player on other key questions:
- How much influence do they have over the Quad's future?
Joe Biden was ranked highest, and everyone else was scored off his baseline. - How much do they care about the Quad issue in the first place?
For example, U.S. National Security Council Coordinator for the Indo-Pacific Kurt Campbell cares a lot, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is focused on the Quad much less. - How flexible are they in their stance toward the Quad?
For instance, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is more flexible about the Quad than is Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The Quad model was completed in August. It ran tens of millions of individual calculations, predicting exchanges between players over seven "rounds" before coming to its conclusion. Grady of Canary Group ran the model several times to check for consistency.
Criticism of game theory
Game theory has its critics.
Game theorists assume that people in competitive situations will behave rationally, or at least behave in ways they believe are rational, in order to achieve their goals.
Critics point out, however, that people ultimately are voluntary actors. Threats or incentives that normally produce one response in people will sometimes produce something quite different in others. Predictions about the actions of individuals don't rest on the same safe ground as, say, predictions about physics. The movement of particles can be predicted because particles don't have free will.
Game theory models have to simplify away some details because they can't mathematically factor in everything that might come into play. "That's what a model does by definition," said Richard Langlois, an economist at the University of Connecticut.
When you're talking about the future, Langlois said via email, "there may be new factors we haven't (and couldn't have) anticipated."
Such "qualitative" factors can't be modeled in a mathematical way.
Asked about that criticism by CNBC, Bueno de Mesquita agreed that qualitative factors play a part in any outcome. But he sticks by his model and its 90% success rate: "The part they play, according to the model's history, is under 10%," he said.
Perhaps the strongest criticism of game theory generally involves the information that goes into models.
Computer scientists have an expression — "garbage in, garbage out" — to mean that a computation is only as good as the data being crunched. A model's output is only as valid as its inputs.
The Quad project gathered information from some of the most respected policy and security experts in the world, and it stress-tested their estimates against each other.
"The folks that we have are really strong. There's not much higher quality you can get than what we have," said Grady of Canary Group. "This is high-quality in, and high-quality out."
Still, more than one of those contributors questioned how much anyone who's outside China's ruling circle can really understand about the inside of China's ruling circle. (Read more under The big Quad predictions.)
Experience teaches investors that it's a good idea generally to be skeptical about predictions. Political scientists, economists and stock pickers all predict the future, but anyone who's followed them closely enough knows they're often wrong.
Predictions also can't account for unexpected events. For instance, the Quad model did not factor in the sharp outrage in Paris after Australia ditched a $40 billion deal to buy submarines from France. At least in the near term, that event appears to have made direct cooperation between France and the Quad unlikely.
But if nothing else, the use of game theory creates a starting point for people to begin to discuss the Quad and what it means.
"Nobody really knows what to talk about — key players, rigor in terms of who's involved," said Jonathan Berkshire Miller, a senior fellow with the Japan Institute of International Affairs and director of the Indo-Pacific program at the Ottawa-based Macdonald Laurier Institute.
"I think in a way, this is the discipline that this discussion needs."
The 'Quad' is on the rise in Asia-Pacific: Game theory has a prediction about its future
The leaders of the world's biggest economies want to know what's next for the Quad. A very complex computer algorithm may have delivered the answer.
www.cnbc.com
Navies of India, Australia Ink Document Laying Framework for Deeper Cooperation
The two navies had on August 18 inked a document titled 'Joint Guidance' to expand cooperation.
By PTI, New Delhi
Last Updated: September 29, 2021, 23:35 IST
Indian & Australian ships during a naval exercise.
The Indian and Australian navies on Wednesday inked a document that lays the framework for talks between the two sides for further expanding cooperation to promote peace, security and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. It comes two-and-half weeks after India and Australia held the first ‘two-plus-two’ foreign and defence ministerial dialogue during which they vowed to further expand strategic and defence cooperation.
The two navies had on August 18 inked a document titled ‘Joint Guidance’ to expand cooperation. “Consequent to the signing of ‘Joint Guidance for the India-Australia Navy to Navy Relationship’ document by the Chiefs of the Indian Navy and the Royal Australian Navy on August 18, the ‘terms of reference for the conduct of Navy-to-Navy Talks between the Indian Navy and the Royal Australian Navy’ was signed on September 29," the defence ministry said in a statement.
It said the document would be pivotal in consolidating the shared commitment to promote peace, security, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. The inaugural Navy-to-Navy talks between the two sides were held in 2005.
Since then, the two nations and their navies have continued to grow closer at all levels with over a decade of bilateral talks, the ministry said. “The document underpins the broad objective of deeper mutual understanding, trust and transparency, improved goodwill and understanding of each other’s concerns and future directions, and provides detailed guidance for the conduct of Indian Navy-Royal Australian Navy talks," the ministry said.
“It also provides flexibility for implementation of separate agreements based on the specific outcomes of the talks," it added. The defence and strategic ties between the two countries have been on an upswing.
In June last year, India and Australia elevated their ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership and signed a landmark deal for reciprocal access to military bases for logistics support during an online summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison. The Mutual Logistics Support Agreement (MLSA) allows militaries of the two countries to use each other’s bases for repair and replenishment of supplies, besides facilitating scaling up of overall defence cooperation.
The Australian Navy was part of the Malabar naval exercise hosted by India in November last year. The navies of the US and Japan were also part of it. Australia was part of the Malabar exercise this year as well.
Navies of India, Australia Ink Document Laying Framework for Deeper Cooperation
The two navies had on August 18 inked a document titled 'Joint Guidance' to expand cooperation.
By PTI, New Delhi
Last Updated: September 29, 2021, 23:35 IST
Indian & Australian ships during a naval exercise.
The Indian and Australian navies on Wednesday inked a document that lays the framework for talks between the two sides for further expanding cooperation to promote peace, security and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. It comes two-and-half weeks after India and Australia held the first ‘two-plus-two’ foreign and defence ministerial dialogue during which they vowed to further expand strategic and defence cooperation.
The two navies had on August 18 inked a document titled ‘Joint Guidance’ to expand cooperation. “Consequent to the signing of ‘Joint Guidance for the India-Australia Navy to Navy Relationship’ document by the Chiefs of the Indian Navy and the Royal Australian Navy on August 18, the ‘terms of reference for the conduct of Navy-to-Navy Talks between the Indian Navy and the Royal Australian Navy’ was signed on September 29," the defence ministry said in a statement.
It said the document would be pivotal in consolidating the shared commitment to promote peace, security, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. The inaugural Navy-to-Navy talks between the two sides were held in 2005.
Since then, the two nations and their navies have continued to grow closer at all levels with over a decade of bilateral talks, the ministry said. “The document underpins the broad objective of deeper mutual understanding, trust and transparency, improved goodwill and understanding of each other’s concerns and future directions, and provides detailed guidance for the conduct of Indian Navy-Royal Australian Navy talks," the ministry said.
“It also provides flexibility for implementation of separate agreements based on the specific outcomes of the talks," it added. The defence and strategic ties between the two countries have been on an upswing.
In June last year, India and Australia elevated their ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership and signed a landmark deal for reciprocal access to military bases for logistics support during an online summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison. The Mutual Logistics Support Agreement (MLSA) allows militaries of the two countries to use each other’s bases for repair and replenishment of supplies, besides facilitating scaling up of overall defence cooperation.
The Australian Navy was part of the Malabar naval exercise hosted by India in November last year. The navies of the US and Japan were also part of it. Australia was part of the Malabar exercise this year as well.
Navies of India, Australia Ink Document Laying Framework for Deeper Cooperation
5 Things To Know About Biden's Quad Summit With Leaders Of India, Australia And Japan
When President Biden hosts the leaders of Japan, Australia and India at the White House on Friday, it will be part of a push, analysts say, to reorient U.S. foreign policy away from long wars and traditional alliances in Europe and instead focus on countering a fast-rising foe: China.The four leaders will be meeting for the second time this year as part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, founded in the aftermath of the 2004 Asian tsunami. In recent years, analysts say the group has emerged as the most important democratic bulwark against China's burgeoning power.
Here are five things to know about Friday's meeting.
It's in person, and that's a big deal in a pandemic
This is Biden's first face-to-face summit with all the Quad leaders: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. For some of them, it's a rare trip abroad during the pandemic. Modi visited Bangladesh in March, but this is his first trip beyond India's immediate neighborhood since early 2020.The Quad leaders met virtually back in March, and issued a joint statement about the importance of "the rule of law [and] freedom of navigation" — references to what all four countries consider as China's illegitimate claims in the South China Sea. They also agreed to work together to try to boost the production and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines.
This time, they're expected to survey progress on vaccine exports and discuss further cooperation on 5G telecommunications technology, cyber security, maritime exercises and intelligence sharing.
"The stranglehold that China's had on the manufacturing and development of certain technologies impacts all of our countries, so I see a lot of scope for [Quad] cooperation for emerging technologies and opening up new supply chains," Richard M. Rossow, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, recently told reporters.
"I think the in-person Quad summit reflects a political reality that four countries who in a pandemic have seen their own significant levels of turmoil and losses individually but have come together to push capacity-building in times of crisis," says New Delhi-based strategic affairs expert Shruti Pandalai. "In March, you set out a vision. This is about operationalizing that vision with deliverables."
One of those deliverables is a ramped-up supply of COVID-19 vaccines for developing countries, which Biden spoke about Wednesday at a virtual summit on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly. "Our Quad partnership with India, Japan and Australia is on track to help produce at least 1 billion vaccine doses in India to boost the global supply by the end of 2022," he said.
Other deliverables may include a possible agreement to build secure semiconductor chip supply chains and fresh promises to reduce carbon emissions and boost clean energy.
Although Friday's meeting will mark this particular group of leaders' first time together in the same room, it's almost sure to be their last: This will likely be Suga's final overseas trip as Japanese premier. He effectively announced his resignation earlier this month. Parliament will pick his successor on Oct. 4.
The Quad is not a military pact
While the U.S. has defense treaties with Japan and Australia, India is not a U.S. treaty ally, and India has historically resisted joining security alliances.The Quad countries periodically conduct joint military exercises, but the group isn't a military alliance. There's no formal defense pact. It's more of a loose strategic partnership, with China as the focus — though officials aren't always explicit about that.
"What we are pursuing is not a monolithic, unified, NATO-type collective security alliance," says Kunihiko Miyake, a special adviser to Japan's cabinet and former diplomat. "Rather, it's a multilayered system, consisting of various groupings and entities." The Quad and other entities, such as the "Five Eyes" intelligence sharing group and the newly formed AUKUS, share certain values and objectives — one of which is to send a message of deterrence to Beijing.
The Quad is all about China
Broadly, the Quad's biggest concern is the perceived challenge to maritime security posed by China in the Indo-Pacific region. Beijing has built military installations on reclaimed islands in the South China Sea — a key global waterway and trade route. Quad members see that as a potential threat to free trade and travel.
And all four Quad countries have their own specific gripes with Beijing.
India and China share the world's longest undemarcated border, where in June 2020, 20 Indian troops were killed in hand-to-hand combat with Chinese soldiers. The clash prompted India to retaliate off the battlefield, banning dozens of Chinese-owned apps, including TikTok.
Australia's ties with China deteriorated after Canberra called for an investigation into the theory that a Wuhan lab may have leaked the virus responsible for the global COVID-19 pandemic. The two countries have also been mired in trade disputes and exchanged tariffs.
Earlier this month, tensions with China spiked further when Australia announced the AUKUS security pact with the United States and United Kingdom. Under the deal, Australia will receive U.S.-made nuclear-powered submarines — which it will likely use to patrol waters near China.
Japan has its own maritime dispute with China: Both countries lay claim to the Senkaku (as Japan calls them) or Diaoyu Islands (as China calls them) in the East China Sea.
Washington is particularly worried about what China's maritime claims mean for trade. In 2019, nearly $2 trillion worth of U.S. trade passed through Indo-Pacific waters. Ties with Beijing soured in recent years under former President Donald Trump, who engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff war with Beijing.
But China remains a key trading partner for all the Quad countries. So they need to proceed with caution. And China, unsurprisingly, is not pleased with the Quad's aims, analysts say.
"China has tried to portray the Quad as a clique that embraces a Cold War zero-sum mentality set on confronting China, as a military alliance that seeks to promote instability in the Indo-Pacific region," says Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at CSIS. "China has also tried to portray the Quad as a group led by the U.S. with the other three actors, essentially, as what China calls 'U.S. pawns.' "
Current and former U.S. officials reject that characterization.
"I see this as a deterrent to not just a Cold War, but actually to an outbreak of conflict," Paula J. Dobriansky, a former U.S. undersecretary of state now at the Atlantic Council, told reporters. "I think that the intent is really to provide a kind of counterweight ... a kind of collective security arrangement and a type of deterrent to ensure that the types of conflicts that we have witnessed do not get out of control."
The Quad is also about climate change — and Afghanistan
Friday's summit takes place ahead of another big global meeting, the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP26, planned for Glasgow, Scotland, in November. Back in March, the Quad leaders created a climate working group to discuss carbon emissions, renewable energy goals and coal usage in thermal power plants.India is a big focus of those talks. It's the world's third-largest carbon emitter, behind China and the U.S., but is expected to account for the largest share of global energy demand growth through 2050. The U.S. wants to encourage India to eschew coal in favor of cleaner technology. To that end, Biden's special envoy for climate, John Kerry, visited India for talks earlier this month.
The timing of the Quad summit, right after the U.S.' chaotic pullout from Afghanistan, is also designed to send a message about Biden's new foreign policy priorities, analysts say. When Biden spoke at the U.N. General Assembly this week, he said it was the first time in 20 years that the U.S. is not at war.
But some Quad members, particularly India, are now worried about China's influence in Afghanistan. India fears Afghanistan may become another link in China's Belt and Road Initiative. India is not part of that global infrastructure network, but its archrival Pakistan is — and there are fears that the world's largest democracy may be increasingly encircled by Chinese projects.
The Quad's purpose is still evolving
The Quad began as a relief group after the 2004 Asian earthquake and tsunami killed hundreds of thousands of people across the Indo-Pacific. But in recent years, it's taken on increased significance as a counterweight to China's growing power in the region."Over the last decade, China has become much more powerful, much stronger, and it has also become much more belligerent," says Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, director of the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. "All of this Chinese behavior has pushed many more countries to come together."
Much of the thinking for the Quad originally came from former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during his first administration in 2007. But there are competing visions of what the group should do.
Yoshihide Soeya, a professor emeritus at Keio University in Tokyo, says the dominant vision is of the U.S. and Japan leading a coalition to contain or counterbalance China. A less popular interpretation is that the Quad is a collaboration of Asia's "middle powers" to promote shared interests, such as fighting COVID and climate change.
Soeya sees the dominant interpretation gaining ground as the Quad evolves, but disagrees with it.
"The more you emphasize the China threat, the more you become dependent on the U.S," he says. And "if this is the only thing which Japan is interested in, then I think our so-called 'strategic autonomy' will be lost."
The Quad's various goals echo the Biden administration's stated intention to collaborate with China where it can — such as on climate change — compete where it should, such as in new technologies, and confront China where it must, over Beijing's perceived aggression toward its neighbors.
The problem, critics argue, is that China says it will not collaborate with anyone it considers hostile. And China considers the Quad to be aimed at containing its rise — so the four Quad members will have to tread lightly.
5 Things To Know About Biden's Quad Summit With Leaders Of India, Australia And Japan
President Biden will meet on Friday with the leaders of Japan, Australia and India. Their agenda includes the pandemic and climate change. But analysts say the Quad group is mainly about China.
www.npr.org
Top 5 AI highlights from the Quad Summit
A convergence of artificial intelligence and international relations was witnessed at the first in-person US-India-Japan-Australia summit with emerging technologies featuring as a prominent part of the Quad’s narrative.As the first in-person meeting of the Quad brought together leaders of the Indo-pacific on 24th September in Washington D.C., what we also witnessed was a convergence of artificial intelligence and international relations. Emerging technologies featured as a prominent part of the Quad’s narrative during the US-India-Japan-Australia summit, besides the COVID pandemic and climate crisis as other key agendas. As per the 'Spirit of the Quad', the countries will "begin cooperation on the critical technologies of the future to ensure that innovation is consistent with a free, open, inclusive, and resilient Indo-Pacific."
- Critical and Emerging Technology Working Group: Since its establishment after the March 2021 virtual meeting, this working group has remained the main mechanism for technology cooperation in the Quad.
- Quad Principles on Technology Design, Development, Governance, and Use: This Statement of Principles is a collaborative effort to affirm that any technological progress in the Quad countries be shaped by their shared democratic values and respect for universal human rights. Technology should make the lives of their citizens more secure, prosperous and rewarding, addressing some of the world’s greatest challenges, like equitable growth, climate change, energy security, and pandemic diseases. Read the official principles document here.
- Contact group on Artificial Intelligence: The Quad will establish a contact group on Artificial Intelligence focusing on standards-development activities as well as foundational pre-standardisation research.
- Quad Tech Network: As part of the QTN initiative, research institutions in Australia (the National Security College at The Australian National University), India (the Observer Research Foundation), Japan (the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies) and the United States (Centre for a New American Security) have commissioned papers on key issues facing the region. These papers offer analysis and recommendations on shared challenges facing Australia and Indo-Pacific partners in the cyber and technology environment.
- Semiconductor Supply Chain Initiative: Quad partners will launch a joint initiative to map capacity, identify vulnerabilities, and bolster supply-chain security for semiconductors and their vital components. This initiative will help ensure Quad partners support a diverse and competitive market that produces the secure critical technologies essential for AI economies globally.
Top 5 AI highlights from the Quad Summit
As the first in-person meeting of the Quad brought together leaders of the Indo-pacific on 24th September in Washington D.C., what we also witnessed was a convergence of artificial intelligence and international relations.
The Quad’s planetary goals
The first in-person meeting of the Security Quadrilateral Dialogue (Quad) leaders in Washington D.C. on 24th September, led to a joint statement[1] worth detailed scrutiny.Contrary to the popular notion that the Quad is a military grouping, the leaders of India, Japan, Australia, and the United States, in the joint-statement, have agreed to share satellite data to monitor:
1. climate change,
2. sustainable uses of marine resources, and
3. disaster response and preparedness.
According to the joint statement, “In space we will identify new collaboration opportunities and share satellite data for peaceful purposes such as monitoring climate change, disaster response and preparedness, sustainable uses of oceans and marine resources, and on responding to challenges in shared domains.”
These three slogans are often repeated across summits, conferences, and seminars. However, when used by the Quad, these terms will be a reality. The Quad is a highly space-capable grouping, where co-operation was imminent. Each has a repertoire of satellites and payloads that will fulfil the three goals, and they can immediately put to use.
Monitoring Climate Change
Climate change is not a measure of a singular variable. Various types of satellites and payloads from each country have different capacities of measurement and assessment. For instance, greenhouse gases (GHG), the root of anthropogenic climate change, are monitored mostly by the U.S. and Japan. The U.S. space agency NASA currently operates the Orbital Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) and OCO-3, while Japan’s space agency, JAXA, operates the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and GOSAT-2. These satellites measure GHG concentrations at low parts per billion resolutions and identify pinpoint sources of emissions[2].
The trio of India-U.S.-Japan – ISRO’s OCEANSAT, NASA’s Aqua, and JAXA’s Global Change Observation Mission (GCOM-W) – monitor other physicochemical variables in the oceans caused by climate change[3]. The NASA-ISRO’s NISAR, NASA’s ICESAT, and JAXA’s GCOM-C, can measure the loss and build-up of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets and the extent of mountainous glaciers[4].
Satellite operating agencies share earth-observation imagery and datasets for peer-reviewed scientific research through various scientific multilaterals. The foremost is the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS), created from the G7 in 1984. Over the years, the CEOS also attracted members from outside the G7. As a result, the ISRO chaired the organisation in 2020. It passed the baton to NASA in 2021, and the French space agency CNES will become the chair in 2022[5]. The CEOS has become significant with more than sixty agencies from various nations becoming members over the past 40 years. However, should the Quad express interest in a similar sharing agreement, it may result in priority sharing of the datasets and imagery collected by the respective civilian satellites between the Quad agencies. The outcome could be new scientific collaborations and boosting national climate regulatory bodies with satellite datasets and imagery – all necessary for attaining climate action goals.
Sustainable use of oceanic resources
The United States’ Blue Economy Strategy Plan 2021-25[6], India’s Blue Economy Framework[7], Australia’s National Marine Science Plan 2015-2025[8], and Japan’s Osaka Blue Ocean Vision[9] have one aspect in common: their commitment for the sustainable use of maritime, marine, and seafloor resources. Their respective plans align well with the United Nations declaration to celebrate the 2021-2030 period as the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development[10].
Fishing, the most prominent activity extracting marine biological resources, remains a significant concern not only in the Indo-Pacific region but globally. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) estimates, almost 85% of global fish stocks are over or fully fished[11]. Illegal and destructive fishing activities are causing massive economic losses of up to $ 23 billion a year[12]. Sustainable fishing, which is also the 14th of the Sustainable Development Goals[13], must be observed across various multilateral groupings, and the Quad is no exception. The Quad’s plan to share satellite data on oceanic ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) may help curb nefarious activities occurring on the high seas by fishing militias, pirates, and non-state actors. Such datasets can help navies, coast guards, fishing communities, and the entire blue economy value chain that is ready to create a sustainable industrial ecosystem.
Disaster Response and Preparedness
With the droughts and bushfires of Australia, tsunamis and earthquakes of Japan, hurricanes and blizzards of the U.S., and flash floods and intense weather spells of India, the Quad nations are all vulnerable to natural disasters. Since they want to engage with each other economically, they must also assist each other’s disaster response and preparedness protocols by sharing satellite datasets. The sharing does exist, but the scope must expand. The cutting-edge and most expensive earth-observation satellite NISAR jointly built by NASA and ISRO, is awaiting its launch in 2022-23. This will monitor volcanism and earthquakes[14]. The Quad can share satellite data between ISRO’s SCATSAT and INSAT series, JAXA’s Himawari series, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) HURSAT series to monitor and mitigate extreme precipitation events.
In the coming years, commercial satellite companies from the Quad nations will also enter the disaster resilience domain. Here, Japan is in the lead. The Tokyo-based company, Synspective, is launching a constellation of 30 synthetic aperture radar satellites that can identify locations of disaster, assist in disaster risk management, and build disaster-resilient infrastructure in the long term[15]. An understanding between the Quad nations to share such commercial satellite datasets will go a long way in mitigating precarious environmental circumstances and their socio-economic domino effects.
COES and other similar global science bodies do share satellite datasets pertaining to climate change, unsustainable use of natural resources and disasters. But these bodies are largely academic and apolitical. The Quad can bring the necessary political resolve in its actions while using such datasets. This political resolve will be key in developing constructive climate solutions that can also be extended to their partner countries. By agreeing to work on non-partisan global challenges in the initial in-person leaders meeting, the Quad has demonstrated its political intention to use science for constructive planetary solutions. If sustained, the Quad’s planetary goals can have a lasting influence on the world’s developmental politics.
The Quad's planetary goals - Gateway House
The highly space-capable Quad powers have agreed to share their respective satellite datasets for monitoring climate change, disasters and the use of natura
www.gatewayhouse.in
The Malabar Exercise of Quad
The international community today is fraught with various destabilizing factors, such as armed conflicts, unilateral claims to change the status quo, terrorism, and large-scale natural disasters. How can we solve these issues? How can we ensure a secure world for the people of today and for the posterity of future generations?
To realize these ends, it is important that as many countries as possible unite and act together for the security and common prosperity of the world. I believe freedom and democracy are the bedrock for achieving these goals.
In this regard, Japan and India are invaluable partners. Both countries share a long history of democracy, a free economy, and a willingness to contribute to world peace.
If these commonalities are shared not only between our two countries but also with the rest of the world, and if we can act together, we can no doubt make a significant contribution to global prosperity and security.
In this sense, the Japan-U.S.-Australia-India Summit Meeting held in Washington, D.C. on September 24 (local time) was truly meaningful. The four countries are geopolitically linked in the Indo-Pacific region and share fundamental values such as freedom and democracy. At the meeting, the leaders affirmed their commitment to strengthening a free and open international order based on the rule of law, and discussed matters such as the realization of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP),” response to COVID-19, critical and emerging technologies, space, cybersecurity, and climate change.
Japan-U.S.-Australia-India initiatives are not intended to create discord with other countries; it is meant for the four countries that share fundamental values including rule of law and democracy to join hands to address a range of issues in order to maintain and strengthen FOIP. These initiatives are significant on multiple fronts, including economic and socio-cultural, but most of all, I believe these are effective and powerful for regional security and prosperity.
In Japan, there is growing concern over the rapidly changing security environment. In the East and South China Seas, China continues its unilateral attempts to change the status quo and continues to expand and intensify its military activities in these maritime and aerial domains. In addition, North Korea has repeatedly launched ballistic missiles or other objects including ones estimated to fall into Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). These military developments, including nuclear and missile development, pose a serious and imminent threat to the security of Japan. Such concerns are not confined to Japan. In the South China Sea as well, China’s unilateral reclamation and military use of reefs have raised the
concerns of neighboring countries.
In addition, needless to say, the global spread of COVID-19 and large-scale disasters have become major issues in countries around the world. Furthermore, economic security matters, such as how to develop, protect, and manage intellectual property of leading-edge technologies, including 5G and beyond-5G technologies, are gaining in importance.
As I touched on earlier, these security concerns cannot be addressed simply by one country; they must be overcome through cooperation of countries seeking to achieve peace and stability by freedom and democracy.
In this regard, from the view of cooperation between like-minded partners that share fundamental values, we attach great importance to the multilateral naval exercise Malabar, which we were able to conduct even amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.
Malabar began as a bilateral exercise between the United States and India. Then, Japan began to participate in line with the deepening of defense cooperation and exchanges with India. Since 2017, Malabar has been conducted as a trilateral exercise between Japan, the United States, and India. Last year (2020), the Royal Australian Navy participated, realizing a quadrilateral Malabar among Japan, the United States, Australia, and India. This year (2021), naval vessels and other assets from the four countries conducted the exercise from August to September on the island of Guam, in the sea and airspace around the island, and in the Philippine Sea. In mid-October, separate drills are scheduled to take place under the Malabar framework. The number of participating countries has increased as more exercises are conducted, and its content has
expanded to include a variety of items.
Through conducting such bilateral and multilateral exercises, like-minded partners such as Japan, U.S., Australia, and India will be prepared to take joint measures swiftly and effectively if a situation threatens people in the Indo-Pacific region. Aside from bilateral and multilateral exercises, if, for example, a large-scale natural disaster occursand the four countries can quickly offer help, this will certainly make the people of other countries feel more secure.
Malabar is not targeted at any particular country. Rather, it gives shape to the beliefs of the four countries that advocate the rule of law, freedom, and democracy. I would like to express respect to India for its initiative on Malabar. Japan will make efforts with India to ensure that efforts including Malabar will bring unity to like-minded partners and security to the countries and people of the region in a rapidly changing security environment.
chanakyaforum.com
The international community today is fraught with various destabilizing factors, such as armed conflicts, unilateral claims to change the status quo, terrorism, and large-scale natural disasters. How can we solve these issues? How can we ensure a secure world for the people of today and for the posterity of future generations?
To realize these ends, it is important that as many countries as possible unite and act together for the security and common prosperity of the world. I believe freedom and democracy are the bedrock for achieving these goals.
In this regard, Japan and India are invaluable partners. Both countries share a long history of democracy, a free economy, and a willingness to contribute to world peace.
If these commonalities are shared not only between our two countries but also with the rest of the world, and if we can act together, we can no doubt make a significant contribution to global prosperity and security.
In this sense, the Japan-U.S.-Australia-India Summit Meeting held in Washington, D.C. on September 24 (local time) was truly meaningful. The four countries are geopolitically linked in the Indo-Pacific region and share fundamental values such as freedom and democracy. At the meeting, the leaders affirmed their commitment to strengthening a free and open international order based on the rule of law, and discussed matters such as the realization of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP),” response to COVID-19, critical and emerging technologies, space, cybersecurity, and climate change.
Japan-U.S.-Australia-India initiatives are not intended to create discord with other countries; it is meant for the four countries that share fundamental values including rule of law and democracy to join hands to address a range of issues in order to maintain and strengthen FOIP. These initiatives are significant on multiple fronts, including economic and socio-cultural, but most of all, I believe these are effective and powerful for regional security and prosperity.
In Japan, there is growing concern over the rapidly changing security environment. In the East and South China Seas, China continues its unilateral attempts to change the status quo and continues to expand and intensify its military activities in these maritime and aerial domains. In addition, North Korea has repeatedly launched ballistic missiles or other objects including ones estimated to fall into Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). These military developments, including nuclear and missile development, pose a serious and imminent threat to the security of Japan. Such concerns are not confined to Japan. In the South China Sea as well, China’s unilateral reclamation and military use of reefs have raised the
concerns of neighboring countries.
In addition, needless to say, the global spread of COVID-19 and large-scale disasters have become major issues in countries around the world. Furthermore, economic security matters, such as how to develop, protect, and manage intellectual property of leading-edge technologies, including 5G and beyond-5G technologies, are gaining in importance.
As I touched on earlier, these security concerns cannot be addressed simply by one country; they must be overcome through cooperation of countries seeking to achieve peace and stability by freedom and democracy.
In this regard, from the view of cooperation between like-minded partners that share fundamental values, we attach great importance to the multilateral naval exercise Malabar, which we were able to conduct even amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.
Malabar began as a bilateral exercise between the United States and India. Then, Japan began to participate in line with the deepening of defense cooperation and exchanges with India. Since 2017, Malabar has been conducted as a trilateral exercise between Japan, the United States, and India. Last year (2020), the Royal Australian Navy participated, realizing a quadrilateral Malabar among Japan, the United States, Australia, and India. This year (2021), naval vessels and other assets from the four countries conducted the exercise from August to September on the island of Guam, in the sea and airspace around the island, and in the Philippine Sea. In mid-October, separate drills are scheduled to take place under the Malabar framework. The number of participating countries has increased as more exercises are conducted, and its content has
expanded to include a variety of items.
Through conducting such bilateral and multilateral exercises, like-minded partners such as Japan, U.S., Australia, and India will be prepared to take joint measures swiftly and effectively if a situation threatens people in the Indo-Pacific region. Aside from bilateral and multilateral exercises, if, for example, a large-scale natural disaster occursand the four countries can quickly offer help, this will certainly make the people of other countries feel more secure.
Malabar is not targeted at any particular country. Rather, it gives shape to the beliefs of the four countries that advocate the rule of law, freedom, and democracy. I would like to express respect to India for its initiative on Malabar. Japan will make efforts with India to ensure that efforts including Malabar will bring unity to like-minded partners and security to the countries and people of the region in a rapidly changing security environment.
The Malabar Exercise of Quad
chanakyaforum.com
After Australia, Japan Wants Nuclear Submarines
TOKYO (GDC) -- China is facing consecutive blows in geopolitics and military tussles- first, Australia armed itself with nuclear-powered submarines as a part of the AUKUS deal with the UK and the US. And now, an increasingly resurgent Japan is also looking to arm itself with nuclear submarines...
www.globaldefensecorp.com
(this is an op-ed published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), written by Senior Analyst Malcolm Davis)
NOTE: This article was published in the aftermath of the first 'Virtual' summit held earlier this year in March, not the in-person summit last month. What the author laments as a 'Missed Opportunity' later ended up being included in the agenda after all, something that I'll go over in future posts in this thread...
The QUAD Must Go To Space
7 Apr 2021|Malcolm Davis
NOTE: This article was published in the aftermath of the first 'Virtual' summit held earlier this year in March, not the in-person summit last month. What the author laments as a 'Missed Opportunity' later ended up being included in the agenda after all, something that I'll go over in future posts in this thread...
The QUAD Must Go To Space
7 Apr 2021|Malcolm Davis
A historic first meeting of the leaders of the countries of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue took place last month, albeit via video link, when Prime Minister Scott Morrison, US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held talks. On the agenda were a range of security issues, including how best to respond to an assertive China, the need to work together on responding to the Covid-19 pandemic and the necessity of coordinated responses to the long-term challenge posed by climate change.
One item that should have been on the agenda is closer cooperation on space policy. It was a missed opportunity, given that all four countries are space powers and have a mutual interest in security and stability in the space domain. So, what should the Quad states do in space?
- First, the Quad states should support the UK-sponsored resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly on 7 December. Resolution 75/36 seeks to establish new ‘norms, rules and principles of responsible behaviours that reduce the ‘risks of misunderstanding and miscalculations with respect to outer space’.
There are no guarantees that greater effort in elucidating ‘norms, rules and principles of responsible behaviour’ will lead to new legal and regulatory arrangements that all states will follow. China and Russia are moving rapidly to develop a full suite of counter-space capabilities, and India tested an anti-satellite weapon, or ASAT, in 2019. So, there’s a challenge here given that Western democracies are concerned about the threat from adversaries developing ASATs but are seeking to cooperate with India when it’s doing the same thing.
- The best response to the ASAT threat is to strengthen international cooperation to place diplomatic pressure on Beijing and Moscow, and work with New Delhi to find alternative approaches to space security while strengthening credible deterrence in space. The enhanced legal frameworks that resolution 75/36 could bring about are just such an outcome. Quad members should support 75/36 and work together to strengthen the legal basis for space diplomacy and regulatory structures that reduce the risk of misunderstanding and constrain opportunities for malicious activity in space.*
- Second, efforts towards more effective norms of behaviour must be integrated with greater space resilience in the face of emerging threats. Resilience will reinforce deterrence in space, which will make the use of ASATs less likely. This effort must be led with greater cooperation on developing exquisite space domain awareness, or SDA, which seeks awareness of activities in space by states and non-state actors, such as commercial companies, to reduce the risk of misunderstandings, while strengthening attribution and denying anonymity to actors that are behaving irresponsibly. SDA will enhance our ability to manage an increasingly congested and contested space domain.
Australia’s efforts are already well known, with cooperation between Australia and the US focused on the establishment of a C-band radar and an optical space surveillance telescope at Exmouth in Western Australia under Project AIR 3029 Phase 2. Defence project JP 9360 is set to expand that capability, and there are information-sharing arrangements through the 2014 Combined Space Operations (CSpO) initiative that includes the Five Eyes, as well as France and Germany.
Achieving exquisite SDA—an ability to clearly see activities in space, from low-earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO), on a 24/7 basis—demands technical capabilities such as networks of ground- and space-based space situational awareness sensors. Data from these sensor networks would be integrated in places such as the Australian Space Operations Centre, or AUSSpOC, which sits at the Australian Defence Force’s Headquarters Joint Operations Command.
A step forward for the Quad in space would be to bring India and Japan into the CSpO initiative**, in the same way that France and Germany are members, even though they’re not Five Eyes countries. Such a move would enable greater information-sharing and strengthen Quad members’ space cooperation with Canada, New Zealand, the UK, France and Germany.
Resilience as a means to strengthen credible space deterrence isn’t just about achieving exquisite SDA. The Quad’s cooperation in space should also focus on developing resilient space architectures that embrace greater use of low-cost small satellites to spread space support across disaggregated constellations. That should be complemented by greater government support for the establishment of low-cost, responsive sovereign space-launch capabilities. Launch centres in Nhulunbuy in the Northern Territory and at Whaler’s Way in South Australia would be well positioned to support the space-launch needs of Quad members. Nhulunbuy, for example, is close to the equator and thus able to offer lower cost per kilogram into orbit than other launch sites.***
Finally, looking beyond the immediate ‘LEO to GEO’ near-earth environment, there are opportunities for Quad members to work together on the next great milestone in human space exploration—the return to the moon as a step towards eventual human missions to Mars. Australia already supports NASA’s Project Artemis, which aims to return US astronauts to the moon in this decade, and Japan also has agreed to participate, notably with provision of a module to the Gateway lunar-orbit platform.
Associated with the return to the moon, the Artemis Accords have been established to promote more responsible behaviour in space, and they reinforce the centrality of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. India should sign the Artemis Accords as a first step and then work with Australia, Japan and the US to develop a more ambitious program of lunar exploration.****
The Australian Space Agency’s ‘Moon to Mars’ initiative promotes opportunities for Australia’s commercial space sector to directly support Project Artemis. It’s time to expand these efforts by considering how Australia, Japan, India and the US can engage in closer cooperation on and around the moon. Establishing a regular dialogue on space cooperation would chart a path for the Quad to the moon, Mars and beyond in coming decades.
The Quad must go to space | The Strategist
A historic first meeting of the leaders of the countries of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue took place last month, albeit via video link, when Prime Minister Scott Morrison, US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister ...
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All in all, a pretty thorough presentation of an Australian perspective on the QUAD's prospects in Space cooperation. Since the March meeting, and following the September in-person summit in Washington, several things have been moving. I will post other articles (along with my observations/commentary) regarding them later on. For now, some comments on the particular topics I've marked with '*'s:
* I tend to agree. Whatever India had to demonstrate in an undeniable way, such as the ability to accurately locate & track objects in Low Earth Orbit moving at a relative speed of approximately 10 km/s (about ~30 Mach). the ability to build a Direct-Ascent missile system capable of reaching the desired altitudes (test was at roughly ~300km altitude, though the missile is theoretically capable of up to ~1,000km altitude) at the desired speeds, the ability to develop a Kinetic Kill Vehicle (KKV) for a hit-to-kill interception, or the ability to develop a IR guidance, course-correction & software system that can guide said KKV on to a blindingly fast-moving target - India has already done so with the 2019 test. No potential adversary like China can afford to not take this into account when coming up with their postures & plans toward Indian assets in space.
I would argue that any further kinetic testing of ASAT weapons on our part is no longer necessary. Any further tests that seek to validate new technologies (such as a Multi-Kill Vehicle rumored to be in development by DRDO) can be done so using Point-In-Space testing like what Russia does, where simulated targets are hit instead of real ones. Four countries (USSR/Russia, US, China & India) have already conducted kinetic destruction of orbiting satellites - and that is already 4 countries too many. The risk of debris posing serious threats to space assets is indeed high and must not be exacerbated to the maximum extent possible.
But one thing's for sure - the development of space-based, as well as counter-space weapons WILL continue, no matter what is the country is question. And the "engagement" and "working with" are very clear distinctions being made in actual policy stands, even since the Trump years:
ASAT Test: Pentagon defends India's A-Sat test, says country is concerned over 'threats' in space | India News - Times of India
India News: "The first lesson from the Indian A-Sat is just the simple question of why did they do that. And the answer should be is that they did that because th
timesofindia.indiatimes.com
** Exactly that has happened (at least with regard to India) following the Modi-Biden bilateral meeting in September. The Bangalore-based NEtwork for space object TRacking & Analysis (NETRA) of India's ISRO signed an MoU with the USSPACECOM-led Combined Space Operations Centre (CSPoC), based out of Vandenberg Space Force Base, toward sharing of Space Situational Awareness (SSA) data against both natural & man-made threats to assets in space.
ISRO's NETRA in Bengaluru to soon receive information from US agency about threats to space assets
India and the United States will sign a Memorandum of Understanding on Space Situational Awareness
www.deccanherald.com
It's not known whether India's nascent Defence Space Agency (DSA) will seek to become a full member of the CSPoC initiative at a later stage, however, Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) Gen. Bipin Rawat, the head of India's Armed Forces recently visited the Peterson Space Force Base at the invitation of the Joint Chiefs, signaling a likely increased military cooperation in the space domain at the highest levels of command:
India’s Chief of Defense meets key missile defense leadership
COLORADO SPRINGS, Colorado – At the invitation of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, India’s Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat, visited military points of interest at Peterson Space Force Base, Sept. 29.
*** I wonder if, given the extreme degree of modularity & cost-effectiveness of India's upcoming SSLV solid-fuel rocket, perhaps an arrangement could be made to build/position some of these rockets (in 'knock-down' kits, shipped to NT) at the Arnhem Space Centre at Nhulunbuy, Australia - in order to get a nice boost to the payload capacity, and perhaps sell some to the Aussies to kick-start their independent launch capability
**** I second that notion. Given ISRO's inherent inefficiencies as a State-run company & the nascent stage of India's Private-sector industry, co-op via Artemis Accords may be beneficial in short term - however, going our own way MAY reap greater benefits in the long term. But will require SERIOUS investment toward the 'colonization' of space on the part of the Indian Government, something which may not be done at least before 2040.
Either way, here's a very good piece written by Chaitanya Giri, Fellow for Space & Ocean Studies Program at the Gateway House:
Artemis Accords propel India's space ambitions - Gateway House
To sign off, a pretty good video on the potential future of Lunar colonization by the major spacefaring powers:
@Ashwin @Gautam @Arpit @randomradio @BMD @Milspec @suryakiran
@Ashwin @Gautam @Arpit @randomradio @BMD @Milspec @suryakiran