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US Congress Passes Huge $886B Defense Budget for 2024
The US Congress approved a staggering defense budget of $886 billion for 2024, while also extending a controversial overseas electronic surveillance system.
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Military grew, everything else was cut. It has workers not being fully paid and working massive overtime in the defence industry
There inability to defend against Storm Shadow points to weaknesses. If they were properly exploited it would change the war completely.
Their proper economy did not grow. Their GDP grew because they were producing more stuff to replace the stuff that was either used or destroyed in Ukraine.No, their entire economy grew. They are spending more than twice in welfare today than they did in 2014, while also having tripled their defense budget.
You can't use that excuse when they're hitting key military targets like airfields and naval bases. Those places are surrounded by flat land and have point defences. We've see videos of their SAMs failing Storm Shadow intercepts at some of these places.They are just finding their way through blindspots.
That's not even military press just opinions. A Russian naval base was hit long after that report. They just haven't used any Storm Shadows for a while.Anyway--
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Storm Shadow missiles give Ukraine 'a much longer stick,' but Russia is already learning to adapt, expert says | Business Insider India
Ukraine's Storm Shadow missiles don't seem to have had "tremendous impact," in part because of Russia's adaptations to HIMARS, one expert said.www.businessinsider.in
Their proper economy did not grow. Their GDP grew because they were producing more stuff to replace the stuff that was either used or destroyed in Ukraine.
You can't use that excuse when they're hitting key military targets like airfields and naval bases. Those places are surrounded by flat land and have point defences. We've see videos of their SAMs failing Storm Shadow intercepts at some of these places.
Translation:
- Ненефтегазовые доходы федерального бюджета составили 17 737 млрд рублей и увеличились на 25,6% г/г. Динамика поступления крупнейших ненефтегазовых доходов федерального бюджета (оборотные налоги,налог на прибыль) остается в устойчиво положительной области - в том числе к уровню 2021 года (как менее подверженному статистическим эффектам базы).
Translation:
- Нефтегазовые доходы составили 8 226 млрд рублей и снизились на 22,8% г/г, что связано с высокой базой сравнения прошлого года, снижением котировок цен на нефть марки Юралс в начале года, снижением цен и сокращением объемов экспорта природного газа.
Translation:С учетом данных операций уровень нефтегазовых доходов в ноябре 2023 года превысил бы уровень предыдущего года на 11%.
Just a few numbers here.
This is Russia's preliminary assessment of its finances for the January-November 2023 period. Contrary to popular expectations, Russia's deficit (as a percentage of GDP) is projected as only 0.5%.
There's been a significant decline in Russia's oil and gas revenues, but it has accompanied by a rather significant increase in non-oil revenues. The figures are as following:
Translation:
Non-oil and gas revenues of the federal budget amounted to RUB 17,737 bln and increased by 25.6% YoY. The dynamics of receipt of the largest non-oil and gas revenues of the federal budget (turnover taxes, profit tax) remains in a consistently positive area - including by the level of 2021 (as less subject to statistical base effects).
Translation:
Oil and gas revenues amounted to RUB 8,226 bln and decreased by 22.8% YoY due to the high base of last year's comparison, lower Urals price quotations at the beginning of the year, lower prices, and reduced natural gas export volumes.
Also given is this:
Translation:
Taking into account these operations, the level of oil and gas revenues in November 2023 would exceed the previous year's level by 11%.
From Jan-Nov 2023, Russia's total expenditure is 26,841 billion roubles against a total revenue of 25,963 billion roubles; this put Russia's deficit at 878 billion roubles (or 0.5% of its GDP).
For those interested in a more detailed, month-wise breakdown of Russia's revenues and expenditures, refer below (note: the figures given are cumulative, m-o-m):
Revenue figures for December will be known next year (as would be obvious). But just for a comparison, the oil revenue for Oct 2022 was 866.4 billion roubles; for Oct 2023 it was 1,016.1 billion roubles. So, while the cumulative numbers are down sharply, the monthly figures for Oct are up. Whether it translates into a trend will be seen once figures for December and January come in next year.
The division of expenditures under different heads has not been updated since January 2022 (the month-wise total expenditure figure however has been updated).
Thus, speaking strictly in fiscal terms, Russia's finance books have not been crippled yet (per the official data linked above).
What a no sht Sherlock tweet/report from Cnn. Without US/NATO help Russia would have taken all of Eastern Ukraine including Kyiv.
They've seen a reduction in foreign demand for their weapons since the war started. For 2023 GDP has fallen back down to 2021 level even with increased production for the war. Basically ~$100bn of that GDP (circa 5%) is because they're in a war. That's expenditure, not real growth. And they've had to raise interest rates to 16% just to stabilise the currency and get loans. China will be getting most of that 16%.Since the 2014 sanctions, they have seen only 2 dips. One was during the pandemic and the other was during the war. Neither of those were due to drop in demand.
The Storm Shadow hit something right next to the Pantsir-S1 in one case.We don't have enough information overall. For example, how far away were the SAMs? 'Cause you can always use low altitude and blindspots, even attacking targets at the edge of SAM rings.
What a no sht Sherlock tweet/report from Cnn. Without US/NATO help Russia would have taken all of Eastern Ukraine including Kyiv.
Both sides (Ukraine and Russia) are learning the hard way that you can have the most advanced tanks, IFV's and gear and it doesn't matter unless you have air superiority over the frontlines because any offensive without CAS/interdiction will be eaten up by arty, mines and kamikaze drones like we see from both sides. If anything this should be a humiliation for Russia with the close to thousand 4th gen fighters and bombers and almost three years of fighting they don't control their neighbors skies. Pathetic.
I think 2024 will be the final year for US and NATO helping Ukraine gain back its territories. I think the F-16's and all the goodies they will come with, including mercenary pilots, will be it. If Ukraine can't advance on the ground with 2-3 squadrons of F-16's in 2024 then that will be it for US/NATO and the lines will remain the way they are for good.
These F-16's better come with HARM receivers and EW pod to take out Russian s400/300s or there's no point having F-16's since they won't be able to support ground forces at the frontlines.
This war would be sooo different right now if it wasn't for Russian air to air missiles and their suckiness to shoot down a Brit ISR aircraft. Russians should be glad their tech sucks or the frontlines would be Crimea right now.
They've seen a reduction in foreign demand for their weapons since the war started. For 2023 GDP has fallen back down to 2021 level even with increased production for the war. Basically ~$100bn of that GDP (circa 5%) is because they're in a war. That's expenditure, not real growth. And they've had to raise interest rates to 16% just to stabilise the currency and get loans. China will be getting most of that 16%.
The Storm Shadow hit something right next to the Pantsir-S1 in one case.
But Russians found out the hard way that stealth is the way to go to attain air superiority. Their Flankers remained wolf of the sky against UAF fighters, but they got pounded by S-300s and other UAF IADS(of course helped by NATO AWACS).Air superiority wasn't the issue. The small number of soldiers the Russians attacked with was the issue. Even the US attacked Iraq with over 800k troops against an enemy strength of 250k that lacked morale and was ill-equipped. The Russians tried to do this with less than 200k when facing a dug in army that was high morale 700k-1m strong funded by the West. They are addressing that issue only now.
But Russians found out the hard way that stealth is the way to go to attain air superiority. Their Flankers remained wolf of the sky against UAF fighters, but they got pounded by S-300s and other UAF IADS(of course helped by NATO AWACS).
A mature Su-57 that could attack deep without the fear of being blown out could have made some difference. Anyways, as I said earlier, Russians have seen their deficiencies against NATO ware and they will come back even stronger. Su-57 and its derivatives are now Russia's number one priority.
Europe now better 'Get Ready'![]()
MKI has lot better PGMs and stand-off weapons to do SEAD/DEAD. Much better than these Russian fighters. And with NGARM/RudraM series coming online, it's becoming better by the hour.I think a lot of their losses were due to manpads, although I'm not 100% sure. They didn't plan their SEAD/DEAD campaign properly or use proper tactics. They also struggled with communications and less capable munitions. We don't have any of these issues, but our MKIs are currently vulnerable to manpads and QRSAMs as well.
MKI has lot better PGMs and stand-off weapons to do SEAD/DEAD. Much better than these Russian fighters. And with NGARM/RudraM series coming online, it's becoming better by the hour.
Plus MANPADS only are effective if you're flying low and slow. We'd never use MKI in this role as we've Rafale/M-2000/Jaguar precisely for that.
But if you've stealth, why fly low, just fly high, evade radars/SAMs and destroy your targets. Now all of Russia's resources are on Su-57 and its future derivatives.