Ukraine - Russia Conflict

Footage of a Ukrainian soldier disassembling a Russian 300-mm 9M55K cluster rocket used in the Smerch MLRS. The 9M55K missile, with a cassette warhead, contains 72 9N235 fragmentation-type combat elements, weighing 2 kg each. Each of the 72 combat elements contains 96 fragments weighing 4.5 grams and 360 light fragments weighing 0.75 grams. The mass of the projectile is 800 kilograms. 9N235 combat elements are subsequently used for dropping from drones. On the channel you can also watch the use of the 9M55K cluster rocket in Ukraine. And the dismantling by a Ukrainian soldier of a 155-mm M483A1 cluster projectile made in Turkey.

 
Some details about the Russian budget for 2024-26, in case anyone's missed it:


The revenue estimates are as follows:
Согласно принятому федеральному бюджету доходы прогнозируются в размере 35,065 трлн рублей в 2024 году, 33,552 трлн рублей в 2025 году и 34,051 трлн рублей в 2026 году.
Translation: According to the adopted federal budget, revenues are projected at RUB 35.065 trillion in 2024, RUB 33.552 trillion in 2025 and RUB 34.051 trillion in 2026.

The corresponding expenditure outlays are as follows:
Расходы составят в среднем около 35,5 трлн рублей в год: 36,6 трлн рублей (20,4% ВВП) в 2024 году, 34,4 трлн рублей (18,0% ВВП) в 2025 году и 35,6 трлн рублей (17,6% ВВП) в 2026 году.
Translation: Expenditures will average about RUB 35.5 trillion per year: RUB 36.6 trillion (20.4% of GDP) in 2024, RUB 34.4 trillion (18.0% of GDP) in 2025, and RUB 35.6 trillion (17.6% of GDP) in 2026.

The whole budget document (on the Kremlin website) is inaccessible. However, the Duma's budget article provides some insights:

An interesting figure:
По словам Вячеслава Володина, в 2024 году доходы бюджета вырастут почти на 29 %. При этом более 2/3 доходов (67,2 %) не зависят от нефти и газа.
Translation: According to Vyacheslav Volodin, budget revenues will grow by almost 29% in 2024. At the same time, more than 2/3 of revenues (67.2%) do not depend on oil and gas.

Therefore, the breakdown of the 2024 revenue estimate would put oil and gas revenues at approx. RUB 11.5 trillion. As noted in an earlier post, Russia's oil and gas revenues for Jan-Nov 2023 period stood at RUB 8.226 trillion.

However, the 2024 estimates would put non oil and gas revenues at approx. RUB 23.564 trillion, representing a sharp increase y-o-y over 2023. For reference, the non oil and gas revenues for Jan-Nov 2023 stood at approx. RUB 17.737 trillion.

How far this materializes remains to be seen.

For those interested in a slightly deeper dive:

Note: As per the Ministry of Finance document:
Общий объем расходов на национальную оборону составит в следующем году 10,4 трлн рублей.
Translation: Total spending on national defense will amount to RUB 10.4 trillion next year.

As mentioned earlier, given the inaccessibility of the main budget document on the Kremlin website, there is a detailed English publication titled (linked) - Another Budget for a Country at War: Military Expenditure in Russia’s Federal Budget for 2024 and Beyond - by SIPRI that can be downloaded. The page is linked below:


A few numbers from the above report:
The real GDP growth rates (2022 actuals, 204-26 forecasts) are as follows:
2022 - -2.1% | 2023 - 2.8% | 2024 - 2.3% | 2025 - 2.3% | 2026 - 2.2%.

The export price of oil (in $ per barrel) used for calculating the revenue figures are as follows:
2022 - $79.6 | 2023 - $63.4 | 2024 - $71.3 | 2025 - $70.1 | 2026 - $70

Coming back to defense spending, the figures cited in the SIPRI report (this is from the initial budget listing as of 1st Sep 2023, hence unamended) are as follows:
2023 - RUB 6.406 trillion | 2024 - RUB 10.775 trillion | 2025 - RUB 8.534 trillion | 2026 - RUB 7.409 trillion

It would indicate a general expectation for drawdowns to start from next year onwards.

(note: the linked report describes the processes, expectations and allocations in the budget in painstaking details; would advise interested folks to give it a read).
 
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Then the Russian offensive has also failed ~10x as bad.


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Some details about the Russian budget for 2024-26, in case anyone's missed it:


The revenue estimates are as follows:

Translation: According to the adopted federal budget, revenues are projected at RUB 35.065 trillion in 2024, RUB 33.552 trillion in 2025 and RUB 34.051 trillion in 2026.

The corresponding expenditure outlays are as follows:

Translation: Expenditures will average about RUB 35.5 trillion per year: RUB 36.6 trillion (20.4% of GDP) in 2024, RUB 34.4 trillion (18.0% of GDP) in 2025, and RUB 35.6 trillion (17.6% of GDP) in 2026.

The whole budget document (on the Kremlin website) is inaccessible. However, the Duma's budget article provides some insights:

An interesting figure:

Translation: According to Vyacheslav Volodin, budget revenues will grow by almost 29% in 2024. At the same time, more than 2/3 of revenues (67.2%) do not depend on oil and gas.

Therefore, the breakdown of the 2024 revenue estimate would put oil and gas revenues at approx. RUB 11.5 trillion. As noted in an earlier post, Russia's oil and gas revenues for Jan-Nov 2023 period stood at RUB 8.226 trillion.

However, the 2024 estimates would put non oil and gas revenues at approx. RUB 23.564 trillion, representing a sharp increase y-o-y over 2023. For reference, the non oil and gas revenues for Jan-Nov 2023 stood at approx. RUB 17.737 trillion.

How far this materializes remains to be seen.

For those interested in a slightly deeper dive:

Note: As per the Ministry of Finance document:

Translation: Total spending on national defense will amount to RUB 10.4 trillion next year.

As mentioned earlier, given the inaccessibility of the main budget document on the Kremlin website, there is a detailed English publication titled (linked) - Another Budget for a Country at War: Military Expenditure in Russia’s Federal Budget for 2024 and Beyond - by SIPRI that can be downloaded. The page is linked below:


A few numbers from the above report:
The real GDP growth rates (2022 actuals, 204-26 forecasts) are as follows:
2022 - -2.1% | 2023 - 2.8% | 2024 - 2.3% | 2025 - 2.3% | 2026 - 2.2%.

The export price of oil (in $ per barrel) used for calculating the revenue figures are as follows:
2022 - $79.6 | 2023 - $63.4 | 2024 - $71.3 | 2025 - $70.1 | 2026 - $70

Coming back to defense spending, the figures cited in the SIPRI report (this is from the initial budget listing as of 1st Sep 2023, hence unamended) are as follows:
2023 - RUB 6.406 trillion | 2024 - RUB 10.775 trillion | 2025 - RUB 8.534 trillion | 2026 - RUB 7.409 trillion

It would indicate a general expectation for drawdowns to start from next year onwards.

(note: the linked report describes the processes, expectations and allocations in the budget in painstaking details; would advise interested folks to give it a read).

Russian budget deficit reaching $16.8 bln in 9M 2023


 
Optimistic.
Indeed.
Says it all.
Here you go:


As for the document, it is linked here - Бюджет для граждан2024–2026 - and the pdf is attached below as well. Not to mention, the SIPRI document more or less matches with official figures, there feel free to go through it as well.

Russian budget deficit reaching $16.8 bln in 9M 2023


Again, the data you're giving is for Jan-Sept 2023. The data I've cited is for Jan-Nov 2023.

From Jan-Sept 2023, revenues were RUB 19.734 trillion, and expenditure was RUB 21.432 trillion, giving a deficit of RUB 1.7 trillion.

From Jan-Nov 2023, revenues were RUB 25.962 trillion, and expenditure was RUB 26.841 trillion, giving a deficit of RUB 0.878 trillion.

Hence, the deficit was halved between September and November, owing to increasing revenues over the same period. Using the same conversion rate, the deficit would come to approx. US$8-9 billion. That's quite small, as a % of GDP.
 

Attachments

Some details about the Russian budget for 2024-26, in case anyone's missed it:


The revenue estimates are as follows:

Translation: According to the adopted federal budget, revenues are projected at RUB 35.065 trillion in 2024, RUB 33.552 trillion in 2025 and RUB 34.051 trillion in 2026.

The corresponding expenditure outlays are as follows:

Translation: Expenditures will average about RUB 35.5 trillion per year: RUB 36.6 trillion (20.4% of GDP) in 2024, RUB 34.4 trillion (18.0% of GDP) in 2025, and RUB 35.6 trillion (17.6% of GDP) in 2026.

The whole budget document (on the Kremlin website) is inaccessible. However, the Duma's budget article provides some insights:

An interesting figure:

Translation: According to Vyacheslav Volodin, budget revenues will grow by almost 29% in 2024. At the same time, more than 2/3 of revenues (67.2%) do not depend on oil and gas.

Therefore, the breakdown of the 2024 revenue estimate would put oil and gas revenues at approx. RUB 11.5 trillion. As noted in an earlier post, Russia's oil and gas revenues for Jan-Nov 2023 period stood at RUB 8.226 trillion.

However, the 2024 estimates would put non oil and gas revenues at approx. RUB 23.564 trillion, representing a sharp increase y-o-y over 2023. For reference, the non oil and gas revenues for Jan-Nov 2023 stood at approx. RUB 17.737 trillion.

How far this materializes remains to be seen.

For those interested in a slightly deeper dive:

Note: As per the Ministry of Finance document:

Translation: Total spending on national defense will amount to RUB 10.4 trillion next year.

As mentioned earlier, given the inaccessibility of the main budget document on the Kremlin website, there is a detailed English publication titled (linked) - Another Budget for a Country at War: Military Expenditure in Russia’s Federal Budget for 2024 and Beyond - by SIPRI that can be downloaded. The page is linked below:


A few numbers from the above report:
The real GDP growth rates (2022 actuals, 204-26 forecasts) are as follows:
2022 - -2.1% | 2023 - 2.8% | 2024 - 2.3% | 2025 - 2.3% | 2026 - 2.2%.

The export price of oil (in $ per barrel) used for calculating the revenue figures are as follows:
2022 - $79.6 | 2023 - $63.4 | 2024 - $71.3 | 2025 - $70.1 | 2026 - $70

Coming back to defense spending, the figures cited in the SIPRI report (this is from the initial budget listing as of 1st Sep 2023, hence unamended) are as follows:
2023 - RUB 6.406 trillion | 2024 - RUB 10.775 trillion | 2025 - RUB 8.534 trillion | 2026 - RUB 7.409 trillion

It would indicate a general expectation for drawdowns to start from next year onwards.

(note: the linked report describes the processes, expectations and allocations in the budget in painstaking details; would advise interested folks to give it a read).

Good that they are gonna stagnate for 2 years, hope it prolongs for much longer.