Some details about the Russian budget for 2024-26, in case anyone's missed it:
minfin.gov.ru
The revenue estimates are as follows:
Translation:
According to the adopted federal budget, revenues are projected at RUB 35.065 trillion in 2024, RUB 33.552 trillion in 2025 and RUB 34.051 trillion in 2026.
The corresponding expenditure outlays are as follows:
Translation:
Expenditures will average about RUB 35.5 trillion per year: RUB 36.6 trillion (20.4% of GDP) in 2024, RUB 34.4 trillion (18.0% of GDP) in 2025, and RUB 35.6 trillion (17.6% of GDP) in 2026.
The whole budget document (on the Kremlin website) is inaccessible. However, the Duma's budget article provides some insights:
Новости. Федеральный бюджет 2024–2026: основные цифры.
duma.gov.ru
An interesting figure:
Translation:
According to Vyacheslav Volodin, budget revenues will grow by almost 29% in 2024. At the same time, more than 2/3 of revenues (67.2%) do not depend on oil and gas.
Therefore, the breakdown of the 2024 revenue estimate would put oil and gas revenues at approx. RUB 11.5 trillion. As noted in an earlier post, Russia's oil and gas revenues for Jan-Nov 2023 period stood at RUB 8.226 trillion.
However, the 2024 estimates would put non oil and gas revenues at approx. RUB 23.564 trillion, representing a sharp increase y-o-y over 2023. For reference, the non oil and gas revenues for Jan-Nov 2023 stood at approx. RUB 17.737 trillion.
How far this materializes remains to be seen.
For those interested in a slightly deeper dive:
Note: As per the Ministry of Finance document:
Translation:
Total spending on national defense will amount to RUB 10.4 trillion next year.
As mentioned earlier, given the inaccessibility of the main budget document on the Kremlin website, there is a detailed English publication titled (linked) -
Another Budget for a Country at War: Military Expenditure in Russia’s Federal Budget for 2024 and Beyond - by SIPRI that can be downloaded. The page is linked below:
Russia’s war against Ukraine has been waged for over 650 days and has had a significant impact on the country’s economy and society.
www.sipri.org
A few numbers from the above report:
The real GDP growth rates (2022 actuals, 204-26 forecasts) are as follows:
2022 - -2.1% | 2023 - 2.8% | 2024 - 2.3% | 2025 - 2.3% | 2026 - 2.2%.
The export price of oil (in $ per barrel) used for calculating the revenue figures are as follows:
2022 - $79.6 | 2023 - $63.4 | 2024 - $71.3 | 2025 - $70.1 | 2026 - $70
Coming back to defense spending, the figures cited in the SIPRI report (this is from the initial budget listing as of 1st Sep 2023, hence unamended) are as follows:
2023 - RUB 6.406 trillion | 2024 - RUB 10.775 trillion | 2025 - RUB 8.534 trillion | 2026 - RUB 7.409 trillion
It would indicate a general expectation for drawdowns to start from next year onwards.
(note: the linked report describes the processes, expectations and allocations in the budget in painstaking details; would advise interested folks to give it a read).