Ukraine - Russia Conflict

T-72s with FPV drone and grenade protection.

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Oh, again.
The $390bn expenditure is NOT FOR 2023. The estimated expenditure for (Jan-Nov) 2023 is RUB 26.841tr (approx. $290bn). That leaves Russia with anything between a deficit in the <1% of GDP range, or a surplus.
There's a table at the bottom; should answer most questions about 2023.
You can't just assume that revenue will increase by 30% in 1 year during a protracted war. That's nonsense economics.
Well, the point about the fighter jet losses notwithstanding, it's fair to be skeptical of the growth projections.
But,
given the revenue breakup in my previous replies, Russian officials expect to rely increasingly on non-oil and gas revenues. The budget assumes a growth of approx. 19% in non-oil and gas revenues. Which, when compared to the 25.6% increase between 2022 and 2023, isn't that outlandish. And in case, you're curious, it was driven by an increase in VAT (+22.8%) and income taxes (+12.2%).
Yeah, it already doubled some VAT taxes, you can't just assume they can do that again. Increasing tax doesn't always mean more revenue, it often leads to capital flight and also emigration to other countries.


Total revenue still fell from 2022 to 2023, it was $341bn in 2022, so it's lost ~12%, it ain't going up 30% next year.
The budget also assumes oil and gas revenues to return to levels similar to 2022 (RUB 10.655tr in 2022 vs RUB 11.5tr in 2024). These combined result in a roughly 27% increase in revenue.

Oil and gas revenues fell by over 22% in 2023; this could also cause a base effect on revenue growth.

That isn't what the budget post was about, but sure, lets wait for the expenditure estimates for the initial months of next year then.
Optimistic assumptions with no basis in current trends.
 
Le marché du gaz en voie de normalisation malgré quelques soubresauts

The gas market is normalising, despite a few bumps in the road
Gas prices in Europe have fallen sharply this year, returning to their levels of two years ago, thanks in particular to lower consumption and the contribution of American gas. But room for manoeuvre remains tight.

Published on 27 Dec 2023 at 15:00Updated on 27 Dec 2023 at 18:05

After a record year in 2022, the gas market fell back into line somewhat in 2023. Over the year, the TTF index of gas prices - which serves as a benchmark for the European market - fell by around 60%. It has fallen from almost 85 euros per megawatt-hour to less than 35 euros, its level of two years ago. This is still a little higher than before Covid, but a long way from the 300 euros reached at the peak in August 2022, when Russia stopped supplying Europe by pipeline.

As a sign that the market has regained a degree of stability, prices have not risen in recent weeks despite low temperatures, particularly in November. The main reason for this is that European stocks remain virtually full. Recourse to the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market avoids drawing too heavily on reserves.
 
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bitch slap slapping GIF




With U.S. and European aid to Ukraine now in serious jeopardy, the Biden administration and European officials are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war, according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat based in Washington. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.
 
Interesting that it went through during the war. Could be a way for India to counterbalance the US and their Pannun shenanigans. The 2+2 meeting in November must not have gone well. Or perhaps there's no link, just business as usual.
business as usual, mandarins might have sensed some thing which is not in public domain. There must be some movement by the parties in war towards a negotiation.
 
business as usual, mandarins might have sensed some thing which is not in public domain. There must be some movement by the parties in war towards a negotiation.

Just finding ways to pressure India for future incidents. This Khalistan issue must be to pressure BJP during elections, although that's backfired due to the actions of the Khalistanis themselves, and the fact that nobody likes Trudeau.
 
bitch slap slapping GIF




With U.S. and European aid to Ukraine now in serious jeopardy, the Biden administration and European officials are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war, according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat based in Washington. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.

Politico. Bah bah black sheep.
 
bitch slap slapping GIF




With U.S. and European aid to Ukraine now in serious jeopardy, the Biden administration and European officials are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war, according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat based in Washington. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.

Basically what Trump's been saying for over a year.
 
A massive missile strike was launched on Ukraine on December 29. The Russian army launched a massive attack on Ukraine today. Cruise missiles Kh-101 and Kh-555 were used from Tu-95MS aircraft, supersonic missiles Kh-22/Kh-32 from Tu-22M3 aircraft. Iskander ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles and Geranium kamikaze drones were also used. Some of the missiles were shot down, some fell on city blocks, and the video shows the fall of one of the downed missiles. The Ukrainian army announced the interception of almost all Russian missiles. The strikes were carried out on critical infrastructure facilities, the Army Academy in Lvov, warehouses and facilities in Kyiv and Kharkov, and the building of the Artem rocket and space enterprise in Kyiv. There is no exact information yet. Strikes were also carried out in Dnepropetrovsk, Ternopil, Rivne, Khmelnitsk, Vinnitsa and Zhitomir.