It's basically 1 ship per month. At this rate Russia's entire Navy with be gone by the end of the decade.
You can't just assume that revenue will increase by 30% in 1 year during a protracted war. That's nonsense economics.Oh, again.
The $390bn expenditure is NOT FOR 2023. The estimated expenditure for (Jan-Nov) 2023 is RUB 26.841tr (approx. $290bn). That leaves Russia with anything between a deficit in the <1% of GDP range, or a surplus.
There's a table at the bottom; should answer most questions about 2023.
Yeah, it already doubled some VAT taxes, you can't just assume they can do that again. Increasing tax doesn't always mean more revenue, it often leads to capital flight and also emigration to other countries.Well, the point about the fighter jet losses notwithstanding, it's fair to be skeptical of the growth projections.
But,
given the revenue breakup in my previous replies, Russian officials expect to rely increasingly on non-oil and gas revenues. The budget assumes a growth of approx. 19% in non-oil and gas revenues. Which, when compared to the 25.6% increase between 2022 and 2023, isn't that outlandish. And in case, you're curious, it was driven by an increase in VAT (+22.8%) and income taxes (+12.2%).
Optimistic assumptions with no basis in current trends.The budget also assumes oil and gas revenues to return to levels similar to 2022 (RUB 10.655tr in 2022 vs RUB 11.5tr in 2024). These combined result in a roughly 27% increase in revenue.
Oil and gas revenues fell by over 22% in 2023; this could also cause a base effect on revenue growth.
That isn't what the budget post was about, but sure, lets wait for the expenditure estimates for the initial months of next year then.
business as usual, mandarins might have sensed some thing which is not in public domain. There must be some movement by the parties in war towards a negotiation.Interesting that it went through during the war. Could be a way for India to counterbalance the US and their Pannun shenanigans. The 2+2 meeting in November must not have gone well. Or perhaps there's no link, just business as usual.
business as usual, mandarins might have sensed some thing which is not in public domain. There must be some movement by the parties in war towards a negotiation.
The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy in Ukraine
For two years, Biden and Zelenskyy have been focused on driving Russia from Ukraine. Now Washington is discussing a move to a more defensive posture.www.politico.com
With U.S. and European aid to Ukraine now in serious jeopardy, the Biden administration and European officials are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war, according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat based in Washington. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.
The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy in Ukraine
For two years, Biden and Zelenskyy have been focused on driving Russia from Ukraine. Now Washington is discussing a move to a more defensive posture.www.politico.com
With U.S. and European aid to Ukraine now in serious jeopardy, the Biden administration and European officials are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war, according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat based in Washington. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.