Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
- Start date
Things seem to be going well for Russia right now, but it's mostly because they can rely on the huge Soviet stockpile -- on the long term, they can't keep up. We've already seen some T-62 appear without modernization, without even some ERA blocks or "cope cage" drone protection because of the need to deliver tanks to the battlefront as fast as possible made it impossible to spend time on upgrades. Likewise for artillery, pieces from the 1940s have reentered service. Meanwhile, Western support to Ukraine has been comparatively slow to ramp up, but the dynamic is there now -- and in Europe, I'd say it's even stronger now than before due to America brilliantly demonstrating its utter unreliability. 2024 will be a difficult year for Ukraine, but 2025 will be a difficult year for Russia.
The recent Russian export ban are more a consequence of Russia's failing economy and social instability than of Ukrainian damage to Russian refineries. It's essentially subsidizing fuel to the Russian consumers.
The recent Russian export ban are more a consequence of Russia's failing economy and social instability than of Ukrainian damage to Russian refineries. It's essentially subsidizing fuel to the Russian consumers.
Russia is banking on NATO removing support for Ukraine, there is no other way Putin can win at this point.
13 Sukhois In 13 Days. The Ukrainians Are Shooting Down More Russian Jets Because The Russians Are Flying, And Bombing, More Often.
The Ukrainians’ aerial kill-streak speaks to their bravery and skill. It also speaks to a Russian compulsion to inflict as much damage as possible, as fast as possible.
www.forbes.com
I beleive patriot is playing the role.
Ukraine : pour abattre en masse les Su-34 et Su-35 russes, Kiev pourrait avoir piraté leurs avionique et systèmes embarqués
Ukraine: in order to shoot down Russian Su-34s and Su-35s en masse, Kiev may have hacked into their avionics and on-board systems
According to analyst Tom Cooper, the recent mass slaughter of Russian Su-34 and Su-35 fighters and bombers could be due to Ukraine "hacking" their onboard electronic systems, rendering them blind to any threat.
Eleven? Twelve? Thirteen? Fourteen in ten days, according to a recent article published by Newsweek, based on figures provided by the Ukrainian armed forces: in recent days it has become hard to keep track of the number of Russian aircraft, particularly the precious Su-34 and Su-35, that have been shot down by Kiev's anti-aircraft defences.
If we add to these fighters and bombers two rare Beriev A-50 detection and command aircraft, which were shot down within a few weeks of each other, the terms "hecatomb" or even "massacre" do not seem to be misused.
How can we explain the hecatomb of the Russian air force?
While Vladimir Putin's Russia is trying to extend its advantage on the ground after its deadly victory at Avdiivka, it is suffering terribly in the air, facing a Ukraine that has not yet received the reinforcements of its long-awaited F-16s. How can we explain such a bad patch?
Firstly, through increased activity near the front. As we explained a few days ago, appearances can be deceptive. The Russian break-up is partly due to a marked increase in sorties close to the front lines, with Russian aircraft once again approaching to provide direct support to ground assaults, as Forbes reiterates.
After staying well behind their lines for a long time, making extensive use of glide bombs to spread hell in the Ukrainian ranks, the Su-34s and Su-35s have ventured more often into range of the Ukrainian Patriot or NASAMS anti-aircraft batteries, which have had a greater chance of spotting and shooting them down. Statistically, the drastic increase in Russian air force losses seems logical.
But that may not be all. An Austrian analyst, Tom Cooper, offers another lead, detailed by the Kyiv Post and, it should be noted, which remains only a hypothesis at this stage: the avionics of the Su-34 and Su-35, i.e. their on-board electronic detection and countermeasure systems, could have been "compromised" by Ukraine.
Compromised avionics, with American help?
Tom Cooper notes that very early in the war, Ukraine was able to get its hands on the carcasses of Su-34s and Su-35s that had been shot down by its defences. Some of them fell to the ground in better condition than others, and perhaps their electronic systems were found intact by Kiev's intelligence services.
Including a radar section capable of detecting targets as well as threats, or jammers activated to deceive enemy systems, both radars and missiles, this cutting-edge avionics system would then have been dissected by the Ukraine, possibly with technical assistance from the United States, delighted to discover such secrets.
Tom Cooper mentions the National Air and Space Intelligence Center, which could have helped Kiev to dissect this precious Russian avionics, and consequently to find the settings and tweaks that would have enabled the Ukrainian radar and missile systems to detect and mow down their Russian targets without being detected.
As the Kyiv Post explains, pilots call this "flying fat, stupid and happy", believing in safe skies when the deadly threat is already fixed on their aircraft.
This blindness to Ukrainian detection and missiles is all the greater given that Kiev has shot down two Beriev A-50s, the rest of the Russian fleet having been grounded according to British intelligence, reported by Newsweek.
The role of these detection and command aircraft, as sharp-eyed conductors of the skies, is precisely to support the Kremlin's fighters and bombers, to detect possible threats or even missile launches, and to help the Su-34 or Su-35 get out of trouble.
The destruction of these two A-50s, as well as an Il-22 with a similar role in January, could therefore continue to weigh heavily on the survival capabilities of the Russian air force engaged in Ukraine.
Ukraine: in order to shoot down Russian Su-34s and Su-35s en masse, Kiev may have hacked into their avionics and on-board systems
According to analyst Tom Cooper, the recent mass slaughter of Russian Su-34 and Su-35 fighters and bombers could be due to Ukraine "hacking" their onboard electronic systems, rendering them blind to any threat.
Eleven? Twelve? Thirteen? Fourteen in ten days, according to a recent article published by Newsweek, based on figures provided by the Ukrainian armed forces: in recent days it has become hard to keep track of the number of Russian aircraft, particularly the precious Su-34 and Su-35, that have been shot down by Kiev's anti-aircraft defences.
If we add to these fighters and bombers two rare Beriev A-50 detection and command aircraft, which were shot down within a few weeks of each other, the terms "hecatomb" or even "massacre" do not seem to be misused.
How can we explain the hecatomb of the Russian air force?
While Vladimir Putin's Russia is trying to extend its advantage on the ground after its deadly victory at Avdiivka, it is suffering terribly in the air, facing a Ukraine that has not yet received the reinforcements of its long-awaited F-16s. How can we explain such a bad patch?
Firstly, through increased activity near the front. As we explained a few days ago, appearances can be deceptive. The Russian break-up is partly due to a marked increase in sorties close to the front lines, with Russian aircraft once again approaching to provide direct support to ground assaults, as Forbes reiterates.
After staying well behind their lines for a long time, making extensive use of glide bombs to spread hell in the Ukrainian ranks, the Su-34s and Su-35s have ventured more often into range of the Ukrainian Patriot or NASAMS anti-aircraft batteries, which have had a greater chance of spotting and shooting them down. Statistically, the drastic increase in Russian air force losses seems logical.
But that may not be all. An Austrian analyst, Tom Cooper, offers another lead, detailed by the Kyiv Post and, it should be noted, which remains only a hypothesis at this stage: the avionics of the Su-34 and Su-35, i.e. their on-board electronic detection and countermeasure systems, could have been "compromised" by Ukraine.
Compromised avionics, with American help?
Tom Cooper notes that very early in the war, Ukraine was able to get its hands on the carcasses of Su-34s and Su-35s that had been shot down by its defences. Some of them fell to the ground in better condition than others, and perhaps their electronic systems were found intact by Kiev's intelligence services.
Including a radar section capable of detecting targets as well as threats, or jammers activated to deceive enemy systems, both radars and missiles, this cutting-edge avionics system would then have been dissected by the Ukraine, possibly with technical assistance from the United States, delighted to discover such secrets.
Tom Cooper mentions the National Air and Space Intelligence Center, which could have helped Kiev to dissect this precious Russian avionics, and consequently to find the settings and tweaks that would have enabled the Ukrainian radar and missile systems to detect and mow down their Russian targets without being detected.
As the Kyiv Post explains, pilots call this "flying fat, stupid and happy", believing in safe skies when the deadly threat is already fixed on their aircraft.
This blindness to Ukrainian detection and missiles is all the greater given that Kiev has shot down two Beriev A-50s, the rest of the Russian fleet having been grounded according to British intelligence, reported by Newsweek.
The role of these detection and command aircraft, as sharp-eyed conductors of the skies, is precisely to support the Kremlin's fighters and bombers, to detect possible threats or even missile launches, and to help the Su-34 or Su-35 get out of trouble.
The destruction of these two A-50s, as well as an Il-22 with a similar role in January, could therefore continue to weigh heavily on the survival capabilities of the Russian air force engaged in Ukraine.
Hmm... Nah I'm blaming Russian incompetence and lacking SA against a likely roving German PAC-2 launcher. Recent A-50 was shot down well behind enemy lines which says friendly fire. That's not to say that if Russian air force faced off against NATO's plethora of advanced 4th and 5th gen fighters and their advanced support aircraft that Russian fighter avionics would fare well in a high-tech environment.
I think Russian fighters would go blind in a hot conflict trying to intercept NATO fighters.
It was well within the 300 km operational range of an S-200D system, which is what Ukraine said it shot it with.
I know the memes about Russian incompetence, and I know Russia itself prefers to blame friendly fire rather than admitting that they were beaten by those that they consider to be subhuman vermin, but the friendly fire excuse does not make sense. The A-50 is a very big, very easily identifiable target, that flies on a very regular, very predictable trajectory. To shoot it down with friendly fire requires not mere incompetence, but actual treachery.
In this case, Russian incompetence was in not taking the S-200D risk into account, as well as a failure to use what evasive maneuvers were available to the A-50 (if you look at the footage, you can see it was flying in a straight line dropping flares (and probably chaff, but that wasn't visible in the night sky). It wasn't diving down to try to disappear into the ground clutter and cause the missile to lose more energy to air friction.
One interesting thing to note about the whole A-50 shoot down is that it was the logical outcome of a long campaign to defeat Russia in the sky. It started with the campaign to defeat Russia in the sea. Sinking the Moskva (an air defense ship) and pushing the Black Sea fleet away from Snake Island and Kherson/Odessa area allowed Ukraine special forces to take control of the oil towers and remove Russian radars from them. Then Russia was blind to threats coming from the West of Crimea. Lots of missile raids then happened on Crimea's radar stations and air defense systems. The damage to the static and road-mobile systems was so extensive that Russia had to bring in the A-50, but then they lost two of those.
All these losses have crippled their ability to watch the Ukrainian skies and look out for Ukrainian SAMs. And so Ukraine is on the verge of obtaining air superiority thanks to clever tactics and meticulous planning. Note however that I'm not taking about air supremacy; obtaining that is going to need more than tactic and planning.
