Ukraine - Russia Conflict

Cyber specialists of GUR hacked the Russian Ministry of Defense​


Ukraine : pour abattre en masse les Su-34 et Su-35 russes, Kiev pourrait avoir piraté leurs avionique et systèmes embarqués

Ukraine: in order to shoot down Russian Su-34s and Su-35s en masse, Kiev may have hacked into their avionics and on-board systems

According to analyst Tom Cooper, the recent mass slaughter of Russian Su-34 and Su-35 fighters and bombers could be due to Ukraine "hacking" their onboard electronic systems, rendering them blind to any threat.


Eleven? Twelve? Thirteen? Fourteen in ten days, according to a recent article published by Newsweek, based on figures provided by the Ukrainian armed forces: in recent days it has become hard to keep track of the number of Russian aircraft, particularly the precious Su-34 and Su-35, that have been shot down by Kiev's anti-aircraft defences.

If we add to these fighters and bombers two rare Beriev A-50 detection and command aircraft, which were shot down within a few weeks of each other, the terms "hecatomb" or even "massacre" do not seem to be misused.

How can we explain the hecatomb of the Russian air force?

While Vladimir Putin's Russia is trying to extend its advantage on the ground after its deadly victory at Avdiivka, it is suffering terribly in the air, facing a Ukraine that has not yet received the reinforcements of its long-awaited F-16s. How can we explain such a bad patch?

Firstly, through increased activity near the front. As we explained a few days ago, appearances can be deceptive. The Russian break-up is partly due to a marked increase in sorties close to the front lines, with Russian aircraft once again approaching to provide direct support to ground assaults, as Forbes reiterates.

After staying well behind their lines for a long time, making extensive use of glide bombs to spread hell in the Ukrainian ranks, the Su-34s and Su-35s have ventured more often into range of the Ukrainian Patriot or NASAMS anti-aircraft batteries, which have had a greater chance of spotting and shooting them down. Statistically, the drastic increase in Russian air force losses seems logical.

But that may not be all. An Austrian analyst, Tom Cooper, offers another lead, detailed by the Kyiv Post and, it should be noted, which remains only a hypothesis at this stage: the avionics of the Su-34 and Su-35, i.e. their on-board electronic detection and countermeasure systems, could have been "compromised" by Ukraine.

Compromised avionics, with American help?

Tom Cooper notes that very early in the war, Ukraine was able to get its hands on the carcasses of Su-34s and Su-35s that had been shot down by its defences. Some of them fell to the ground in better condition than others, and perhaps their electronic systems were found intact by Kiev's intelligence services.

Including a radar section capable of detecting targets as well as threats, or jammers activated to deceive enemy systems, both radars and missiles, this cutting-edge avionics system would then have been dissected by the Ukraine, possibly with technical assistance from the United States, delighted to discover such secrets.

Tom Cooper mentions the National Air and Space Intelligence Center, which could have helped Kiev to dissect this precious Russian avionics, and consequently to find the settings and tweaks that would have enabled the Ukrainian radar and missile systems to detect and mow down their Russian targets without being detected.

As the Kyiv Post explains, pilots call this "flying fat, stupid and happy", believing in safe skies when the deadly threat is already fixed on their aircraft.

This blindness to Ukrainian detection and missiles is all the greater given that Kiev has shot down two Beriev A-50s, the rest of the Russian fleet having been grounded according to British intelligence, reported by Newsweek.

The role of these detection and command aircraft, as sharp-eyed conductors of the skies, is precisely to support the Kremlin's fighters and bombers, to detect possible threats or even missile launches, and to help the Su-34 or Su-35 get out of trouble.

The destruction of these two A-50s, as well as an Il-22 with a similar role in January, could therefore continue to weigh heavily on the survival capabilities of the Russian air force engaged in Ukraine.
Can't see how that's possible unless there's wireless comms link to their onboard MAWS and RWR, which would be f*cking stupid.
 
It was well within the 300 km operational range of an S-200D system, which is what Ukraine said it shot it with.

I know the memes about Russian incompetence, and I know Russia itself prefers to blame friendly fire rather than admitting that they were beaten by those that they consider to be subhuman vermin, but the friendly fire excuse does not make sense. The A-50 is a very big, very easily identifiable target, that flies on a very regular, very predictable trajectory. To shoot it down with friendly fire requires not mere incompetence, but actual treachery.

In this case, Russian incompetence was in not taking the S-200D risk into account, as well as a failure to use what evasive maneuvers were available to the A-50 (if you look at the footage, you can see it was flying in a straight line dropping flares (and probably chaff, but that wasn't visible in the night sky). It wasn't diving down to try to disappear into the ground clutter and cause the missile to lose more energy to air friction.

One interesting thing to note about the whole A-50 shoot down is that it was the logical outcome of a long campaign to defeat Russia in the sky. It started with the campaign to defeat Russia in the sea. Sinking the Moskva (an air defense ship) and pushing the Black Sea fleet away from Snake Island and Kherson/Odessa area allowed Ukraine special forces to take control of the oil towers and remove Russian radars from them. Then Russia was blind to threats coming from the West of Crimea. Lots of missile raids then happened on Crimea's radar stations and air defense systems. The damage to the static and road-mobile systems was so extensive that Russia had to bring in the A-50, but then they lost two of those.

All these losses have crippled their ability to watch the Ukrainian skies and look out for Ukrainian SAMs. And so Ukraine is on the verge of obtaining air superiority thanks to clever tactics and meticulous planning. Note however that I'm not taking about air supremacy; obtaining that is going to need more than tactic and planning.
I have trouble believing that A-50 got shot down by s200 maybe the previous one where it was closer to the frontline and didn't have to deploy the s200 near the front. These s200 launchers are huge and not mobile and Ukraine would have had to set up knowing an A50 would be flying in its range to achieve such a hit without Russian knowing.
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Russians are incompetence in many military areas but I just can't believe they are this incompetence that they couldn't detect such a huge launcher likely sitting for hours so close to the frontline. I'm not saying impossible but I can't logically get there yet.

Also in the video the A50 gets hit at low altitude blasting off countermeasures the missile does not have an active seeker that A50 got hit well below line of sight of s200 radar.
 
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I have trouble believing that A-50 got shot down by s200 maybe the previous one where it was closer to the frontline and didn't have to deploy the s200 near the front. These s200 launchers are huge and not mobile and Ukraine would have had to set up knowing an A50 would be flying in its range to achieve such a hit without Russian knowing.
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Russians are incompetence in many military areas but I just can't believe they are this incompetence that they couldn't detect such a huge launcher likely sitting for hours so close to the frontline. I'm not saying impossible but I can't logically get there yet.

Also in the video the A50 gets hit at low altitude blasting off countermeasures the missile does not have an active seeker that A50 got hit well below line of sight of s200 radar.
Yeah, SA-5 are not particularly mobile and the sites are easily seens from space, because the missiles and equipment is huge. It would be like a circus coming to town and nobody noticing.

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A VIDEO appeared, how the soldiers of the 60 OMBr expertly REBEAT THE ASSAULT of the Russians near Liman​


 
Running out of fuel? Russia halts oil exports

Russia has long been one of the world's leading producers of oil and gas. But the war changed everything. Many thought that Russia could use its natural resources as leverage against the West. But gas problems can go both ways.

Al Jazeera has reported that Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has approved a six-month ban on fuel exports from March. Reuters explains that oil, gas and related products are by far Russia's most important exports, representing a major source of its US$1.9 trillion economy, despite the sanctions and other blows inflicted by the war and subsequent sanctions. There are several reasons why Russia has taken this decision. Al Jazeera writes that the measure is aimed at avoiding shortages and curbing soaring prices on the domestic market, where demand has increased.

This decision, Reuters points out, also seems to meet the needs of farmers and truckers working in agriculture. After all, Russia is the world's biggest wheat exporter. At the same time, a number of Russian refineries have been hit by Ukrainian drones, affecting their oil production.

Perhaps Putin is trying to win votes ahead of the Russian presidential election on 15 March, although the result seems to be a foregone conclusion.

According to Al Jazeera, this decision will not affect Russia's partners in the Eurasian Economic Union, namely Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, as well as Mongolia and Uzbekistan. Abkhazia and South Ossetia, secessionist regions recognised only by the Moscow government and some of Russia's allies, are also exempt. Reuters explains that most importers of Russian oil are African countries, notably Nigeria, Libya and Tunisia.

This is not the first time the Russian government has taken such a step. Last year, a similar ban was applied between September and November in order to control prices and consumption before the winter. Is the Russian economy in a rut, has it found its rhythm while facing a major special military operation, or is this a sign that Vladimir Putin is out of breath?
 
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What are you French up to? :unsure:

When Prez Macaroni said something like this a few days ago nobody listened because it was taken as bluster but now El Jefe of Defense Staff is talking about sending some coalition of willing... so I'll ask again what are you French up to?

I'm more than willing to bet that several European countries (especially Poland & France) would be looking to enter & occupy whatever is left of Western Ukraine after Russia takes whatever they can in the East. They'll do it under various pretexts of course (they're talking about de-mining, I guess 'protecting Ukraine against further Russian attacks' will be another).

But the goal will be to forward-deploy NATO forces, creating a buffer out of whatever is left of Ukraine after the war is over**, if they have to fight Russia, they'd rather not do it on their own territory for as long as they can.

** Which I expect to happen by fall 2024/early 2025 - IF Trump wins. Otherwise it could go on much longer.
 
Running out of fuel? Russia halts oil exports

Russia has long been one of the world's leading producers of oil and gas. But the war changed everything. Many thought that Russia could use its natural resources as leverage against the West. But gas problems can go both ways.

Al Jazeera has reported that Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has approved a six-month ban on fuel exports from March. Reuters explains that oil, gas and related products are by far Russia's most important exports, representing a major source of its US$1.9 trillion economy, despite the sanctions and other blows inflicted by the war and subsequent sanctions. There are several reasons why Russia has taken this decision. Al Jazeera writes that the measure is aimed at avoiding shortages and curbing soaring prices on the domestic market, where demand has increased.

This decision, Reuters points out, also seems to meet the needs of farmers and truckers working in agriculture. After all, Russia is the world's biggest wheat exporter. At the same time, a number of Russian refineries have been hit by Ukrainian drones, affecting their oil production.

Perhaps Putin is trying to win votes ahead of the Russian presidential election on 15 March, although the result seems to be a foregone conclusion.

According to Al Jazeera, this decision will not affect Russia's partners in the Eurasian Economic Union, namely Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, as well as Mongolia and Uzbekistan. Abkhazia and South Ossetia, secessionist regions recognised only by the Moscow government and some of Russia's allies, are also exempt. Reuters explains that most importers of Russian oil are African countries, notably Nigeria, Libya and Tunisia.

This is not the first time the Russian government has taken such a step. Last year, a similar ban was applied between September and November in order to control prices and consumption before the winter. Is the Russian economy in a rut, has it found its rhythm while facing a major special military operation, or is this a sign that Vladimir Putin is out of breath?
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This post is from July 11th last year on another forum, well over 6 weeks into the Ukrainian offensive, and over 6 weeks before it ended. From memory Russia had 18.122% at the start.

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You can see that Russia still had more territory then than it does now and it took them over 6 months (Start Sep 2023) to pull it back to this. Russia is losing. That's a statistical fact. Losing on territorial control and losing in terms of lives and assets lost. Every 0.001% is 6km^2. Russia was at 17.957% before their offensive started. They have taken back 0.045% out of the 0.165% that they lost.

So Russia can carry on losing ~250,000 troops per year and territory and oil depots and ships and aircraft fro as long as it likes. Or it can accept the inevitable.
 

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Footage has appeared of an attack by Ukrainian naval drones on the presumably Russian patrol ship "Sergey Kotov" of Project 22160. Project 22160 ships were stopped being built due to the discrepancy between their tactical and technical qualities and combat operating conditions. Previously, the patrol ship “Sergey Kotov” of the Russian Black Sea Fleet repelled attacks by Ukrainian naval drones, but it is not possible to repel an attack of about 10 drones at the moment. The attack was carried out on the night of March 4-5 by maritime drones “Magura V5” of the “Group 13” unit; information about everything is on the channel. According to Ukrainian media, the ship was damaged in the stern, right and left sides, the crew was rescued, this is not officially confirmed by Russian media, there is no footage of the ship sinking.