Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
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So, besides the Prune posts I've cited that show the hidden cracks in the russian economy, there's this interesting paper by Vladimir Milov, a former government official of russia at the turn of the century before poo-tin started sending the country on the road to become Greater North Korea.
What's interesting is that, for example, it shows how the growth figures are spread out across sectors, and we can see how russia is actually in recession except for the military industry and, to a much lesser extent, construction (with a Chinese-style bubble going on, in fact, as construction is growing but so is the amount of unsold buildings).
So for example: russian GDP growth figure for 2023 was 3.6%. But industry growth was actually just 3.5%, less than GDP growth. However, industry growth in the defense-related sectors was between 25% and 33%.
So say your defense industry has a growth of 30%, but your total industry (including defense, but also the others) has an average growth of only 3.5%. Are you good enough at math to extrapolate what it means that the non-defense industries are lowering the growth value by an order of magnitude?
The other thing is to keep in mind how that military industry growth is funded. It's by russia's financial reserves. Let me quote a paragraph here:
So russia cannot fund its war and needs to empty its national wealth fund. It's desperate for cash, and is repeating the Soviet Union's mistakes in doing so:
Oh well, at least they have North Korea to bail them out:
What's interesting is that, for example, it shows how the growth figures are spread out across sectors, and we can see how russia is actually in recession except for the military industry and, to a much lesser extent, construction (with a Chinese-style bubble going on, in fact, as construction is growing but so is the amount of unsold buildings).
So for example: russian GDP growth figure for 2023 was 3.6%. But industry growth was actually just 3.5%, less than GDP growth. However, industry growth in the defense-related sectors was between 25% and 33%.
So say your defense industry has a growth of 30%, but your total industry (including defense, but also the others) has an average growth of only 3.5%. Are you good enough at math to extrapolate what it means that the non-defense industries are lowering the growth value by an order of magnitude?
The other thing is to keep in mind how that military industry growth is funded. It's by russia's financial reserves. Let me quote a paragraph here:
So... In 2022, russia's piggy bank could fund 30 months of defense spending. 24 months later, they can only fund six more months. Now that's logical because 30 - 24 = 6. However, it's not the whole picture, because a month of defense spending in 2022 is less than a month of defense spending in 2024, as the russian defense budget has massively increased and will keep increasing.
So russia cannot fund its war and needs to empty its national wealth fund. It's desperate for cash, and is repeating the Soviet Union's mistakes in doing so:
Anyone remembers what happened to the Soviet Union just after "the late 1980s"?
But the kremlinbots on twitter and youtube comments keep insisting that "80% of the world supports russia", how comes then that the "Global South" isn't helping? Not even with the "unlimited friendship" of China?
Oh well, at least they have North Korea to bail them out:
Exclusive-Firm making car that Putin gifted to Kim uses South Korean parts, data shows
Laughing and joking, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un cruised around Pyongyang last week in a Russian-made Aurus limousine to showcase their strengthened anti-Western alliance. The luxury sedan was intended to epitomize Russia's domestic prowess and reduced...
Seems the S-500 lasted just 14 days:
rusi.org
Russia Has Just One S-500 Air-Defense System. It Arrived In Crimea Amid A Storm Of Ukrainian Rockets.
On paper, an S-500 battery includes three radars—two of which are identical to the radars that cue an S-400. The third radar, the 77T6, is optimized for detecting fast-moving ballistic missiles—like ATACMS. But the 77T6 is just a few years old and shrouded in mystery. The 77T6’s capabilities...
rusi.org
So russian propagandists cannot talk about the bad news anymore. But they have to talk about something! So they just repeat their apology of crimes against humanity, because that's all they can talk about -- they don't have good news to report, after all.
Sometimes the American propaganda is so bad that it makes it look like that Ukraine will win tomorrow. But nothing good is happening. Not an inch of land has been vacated by the Russians. Hence belief in propaganda is declining. US is making all effort to convince of victory. It helps them in appropriating approved funds. That is all to it.
jaljeera terrorists for once have put nice infographics.
www.aljazeera.com
Russia-Ukraine war in maps and charts: Live Tracker
As the Russian offensive enters its 133rd week, we track where battles are taking place and the human cost of the war.