Ukraine - Russia Conflict

Secondary detonations reported at Marynovka airfield in Volgograd region

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The crumbling remains of the russian industry have about two months left to work with plastics.

“Business has asked to level out the deficit of raw materials widely used in the production of auto parts, refrigerators and building materials. Stopping its supplies against the backdrop of sanctions could lead to bankruptcy of enterprises”​
“Representatives of several industries at once - the automotive, construction and household appliance manufacturers - have appealed to the Minister of Industry Anton Alikhanov with a request to work on the issue of a shortage of raw materials widely used in” product production​
“The letter, which was signed by more than 20 companies (Technonicol, Beko, Veratek, RusTA, Verakhim, etc.)”​
“We are talking about polymethylene phenyl isocyanates (MDI; used, for example, in the production of polyurethane foams, sealants, self-leveling floors, pipes, refrigerator components and auto parts),…”​
All the things!​
“…the deficit of which has been growing on the domestic market since the introduction of the 14th package of EU sanctions at the end of June this year.”​
🇪🇺: 🥳
“Currently, MDI is not produced in industrial quantities in Russia, the entire volume of consumed raw materials is “100% dependent on imports,” the letter states.”
Oh dear…​
“The main suppliers of products from Europe, the USA and Japan (the share of these imports in the total volume of domestic consumption, even after the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, averaged over 60%) have stopped shipments, Chinese suppliers cannot meet domestic demand, and are also reducing the volume of MDI deliveries, sometimes completely stopping them due to problems with bank payments.”​
🍿Lolololololol​
“The authors of the appeal point out that recently the largest supplier from China, Wanhua Chemical Group, announced a complete stop in accepting orders for the supply of raw materials to Russia and Belarus.”
🇨🇳: BEST FRENEMIES FOREVER!​
"This decision was a shock to the industry, since given the limited stock of market participants and the limited shelf life of MDI, the continuation of this situation over the next few months will entail the risk of shutdown and bankruptcy of existing production facilities,"​
🍿
“In addition, suppliers from Saudi Arabia (Sadara Chemical is cited as an example) have still not confirmed the possibility of supplying raw materials to Russia.”​
🇸🇦: Houthi this!​
This keeps happening 😂. Look at how big the distance is from the situation they’re in now and solving the problem.​
It’s like being stabbed and saying you’re thinking about building a factory that produces some gauze.​
“Market participants have already felt the first consequences of the sanctions, says Alexey Gorokhov, executive director of the NAPPAN association (which unites manufacturers of construction panels)…”​
This next part is fun​
“…"The cost of the remaining isocyanates that are in Russia or their unofficial delivery has already increased more than one and a half times, and the price continues to rise every week…”​
“…The possibilities to use unofficial supply schemes are very limited, so panic has already begun on the market - everyone is trying to find an opportunity for some kind of delivery, and, accordingly, the price has gone up," the expert says.”​
And it will continue to go up!​
Remember, even if they managed to evade sanctions, the price will still be incredibly high. That still hurts!​
‼️ “At the same time, speaking about the leftovers, he indicated that they would last for about two months, and “the damage from the shortfall in the supply of this component will be enormous;…”​
“…in most areas of application, there is nothing to replace it with, only finished products. <...> Ultimately, these are jobs, these are people who should receive a salary, but enterprises will not be able to provide it.””​
I’m going to remind people again of this analogy.​
It’s like Russia is in the path of an avalanche. They may try to point out that that are running away (or might in the future). But can they run fast enough to escape it? And if they can’t, will they be able to run afterwards?​
Anton Guskov points out that this is a big problem for refrigerator manufacturers. Without the polymethylene phenyl isocyanates they can’t make refrigerators.​
Listen to him describe the hopeless situation​
“"The only way to solve this problem is to start producing this material in Russia. We do not produce it, and if we do, then in small quantities and of unsuitable quality for household appliances…”​
“…In addition, the problem is that this is a substance that cannot be stored for a long time - it crystallizes due to its chemical properties. Therefore, it will not be possible to make reserves either,"”​
So…hopeless​
*sigh* here they’re going to point out possible solutions. But it’s filled with problems! (Some they don’t mention)​
First of all there’s the problem of the avalanche, and if they’re running out of supplies in 2 months, I doubt anything here will fix the situation in time​
But if we set that aside. There are still other problems.​
In order to build a factory, they need all equipment, labor, and technical know how to accomplish it. I’m not sure they have that.​
But also they need funding​
“In their opinion, the reason why the project launch is constantly postponed is that the payback period of such a project "may not suit private investors". "We see this as the main reason for the project's repeatedly postponed launch,"”said Sergei Kolesnikov.​
You also have to consider:​
1. If the private investors have enough capital available​
2. If they would would be willing to invest capital into ANYTHING considered the fear of nationalization or similar (since Russia keeps doing that)​
3. If they would have in confidence in supporting another project considering work in this field has been going on for 17 YEARS with no tangible results.​
“"And the issue of building a plant to ensure strategic raw material security with the availability of imports was apparently not taken seriously earlier; special approaches and support measures had to be applied to solve this problem."”​
Special approaches?​


😂 Ok, so…​
- the project probably won’t happen without government support (which the government may not be able to afford)​
AND​
- “the product will have no export prospects given the sanctions,”​
🇷🇺: WHO WANTS TO INVEST?​
“With the proper level of support and investments of $300–450 million, it is possible to create an enterprise with a capacity of 100 thousand tons of MDI per year in three to four years.”​
That’s about half the amount of MDI used in 2023. And they’re going to run out in 2 months!​
““However, the technology will have to be obtained in difficult ways and with a significant overpayment, since Western and now Chinese contractors will not risk preparing the documentation and implementing the EPC contract,” the expert concludes.”​
So…doomed to failure​
Look, even if they got China to help, it doesn’t sound like they could supply as much as Russia needs.​
And why would they if they’ve got Russia cornered and can just force Russian factories into bankruptcy and make them buy Chinese finished products.​
I don’t see a quick solution here! Anybody still want to say the Russian economy is going great and that sanctions don’t hurt?​
IT WILL GET WORSE​
~ The End ~​
TL;DR: the russian industry absolutely needs access to a certain category of chemicals. They don't make it. They can't import it from the West anymore. They can't import it from China either.

They can't stockpile it because it has a short shelf life. What they have now will run out in about two months.

They can try producing it themselves, but it's a huge investment and they have zero know-how in that domain. Private investors have been spooked by nationalizations.

Now it's possible that the situation isn't entirely as bad as the letter says. After all, the only way for the domestic production project to proceed, after languishing for already 17 years with no significant progress made, is to get a sizable amount of public investment money from the russian National Wealth Fund, and there are hundreds of other urgent and necessary projects constantly clamoring for NWF money. So painting a darker picture to make their begging more convincing is to be expected.

It's still pretty funny. And even if it's not as bad as claimed, it's still one more illustration of how the russian economy is spiraling the drain entirely because little crybaby pooty-poot wanted to cosplay as Peter the Great, entirely unaware that we are now in the 21st century.
 
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I don't think it's possible to get tired of russian shit burning.

Marinovka air base in russia has been extensively remodeled. I like those improvements.

Meanwhile, the russians are still being russian. After all, besides alcoholism, lies, and corruption, what is more integral to the "mysterious russian soul" than torture?
2/ ASTRA reports that Russia's 272nd Motorised Rifle Regiment has established an illegal prison and torture facility on the grounds of the 47th Division's headquarters. Russia's largest military training facility, where the Russian Ground Forces exercise, is located at Mulino.​
3/ According to former detainees, wounded soldiers – mainly conscripts – are "illegally detained and subjected to violence" by military police. They say that men are handcuffed to a radiator and beaten in a former armoury, and kept for days without food, water or toilets.​
Here one has to note that "without toilet" is not really torture for russians; it's their natural state. That's why they steal all the Ukrainian toilets they find.
4/ This has included men wounded in the war, such as a mobilised soldier who lost part of his leg. Detainees are reportedly "not allowed to undergo medical examinations or surgeries and, according to the source, 'are kept like cattle'." At least three had their ribs broken.​
5/ An appeal to the Russian authorities names the acting commander of the unit, Captain Bogdan Romanov, as being in charge of the facility. However, the authorities have refused to open a criminal case on the grounds that nobody is being held by force.​
6/ A video published by ASTRA shows a man lying on a mattress with his right arm handcuffed to a radiator. He is addressed by the person recording the video, who remarks that it's "not healthy" to be left in the cold and notes that the prisoner has been handcuffed for two days.​
7/ The detainees are reportedly being 'encouraged' to return to the war. It's not clear why they were brought to the facility, but they are likely there because they refused to fight. Similar 'remotivation' facilities have been reported at 17 locations in occupied Ukraine.​
8/ The reported presence of conscripts is new – such facilities have tended to be used to deal with mobilised soldiers – but it suggests that the Russian army is disciplining some of those who fled the Ukrainian advance in the Kursk region. /end​
Source:​


Amusingly enough, russian bloggers still manage to pretend to be surprised at how corrupt the corrupteration of corruptsia really is, even though they're in their third year of the special military corruptation decided by corruptin to protect corruption in the Donbas. After all, besides alcoholism, lies, and torture, what is more integral to the "mysterious russian soul" than corruption?
 
Are you a complete sucker? Then have I got the investment opportunity for you!

Another constant of the russian soul, besides alcoholism, lies, corruption, and torture, is incompetence:

And sexual deviancy can be added, too:
2/ Russia's armed forces are currently made up of four principal groupings: professional ("contract") soldiers, who join voluntarily; mobilised soldiers ("mobiks"), recruited compulsorily; convicts, who sign up in exchange for a pardon; and conscripts, who serve for one year.​
3/ Mobiks differ from conscripts in that they are principally older men (and sometimes women) in Russia's reserves who have previously served in the armed forces as contract soldiers or as conscripts. There were estimated to be around 2 million people in this category.​
4/ All males from 18-30 are subject to conscription, with all three parts of the Russian armed forces (army, navy and air force) taking conscripts. Exceptions are made for health and other reasons. Evading conscription is punishable with up to 18 months of imprisonment.​
5/ Conscription is very undesirable (for reasons which we'll cover shortly). As many as 70% of those eligible for conscription buy their way out of it by bribing a doctor or recruiting officer. The 'fee' was reportedly between $5,000-$10,000 in 2007.​
6/ This drastically skews the demographics of conscription, with the armed forces being left with the poorest and least healthy men to serve as conscripts. This leaves the Russian military with chronic problems of fitness and efficiency.​
7/ In 2007, the Russian Air Force reported that 30 percent of the 11,000 men it conscripted annually were "mentally unstable," 10 percent suffered from alcohol and drug abuse, and 15 percent were ill or malnourished.
8/ Conscripts are paid a pittance – those currently fighting in Kursk are reportedly being paid $0.75 a day – and as the lowest-ranking soldiers, they are ruthlessly exploited by those above them. This includes older soldiers (dyedi or 'grandfathers') and officers.​
9/ For decades, conscripts have been subject to extreme and often lethal forms of hazing and abuse, known as 'dedovshchina' (literally 'reign of the grandfathers'). In 2006, at least 292 Russian soldiers were killed by dedovshchina. 341 soldiers died by suicide in 2007.​
10/ This has occasionally led to lethal retaliation. In October 2019, 20-year-old conscript Ramil Shamsutdinov shot 10 of his colleagues, killing 8 of them, after being forced to stay awake for days at a time and suffering other forms of abuse. Such torture is frequent.​
11/ One video shows a young soldier stripped, beaten and then repeatedly pushed, face down, into a toilet. Later, he is show with new iron burns over his back. His tormentors urinate on him. In 2005, a conscript had to have his legs and genitals amputated after being tortured.
12/ Other forms of abuse include doing unpaid labour, being made to sell blood to earn money for the abusers, or being forced into prostitution. Conscripts in St Petersburg were forced by the dyedi to perform sexual services for influential middle-aged clients or face torture.
13/ Conscripts receive little or no military training, making them of little use as a fighting force. The mothers of conscripts in the Kursk region have complained that instead of getting any training, their sons were simply used as labour – carrying shells or digging trenches.​
14/ A fairly common form of corruption among officers is to use conscripts as unpaid labour to build or maintain their dachas (holiday homes), or hiring them out to businessmen work in building sites, fields or factories – for which the conscripts get no compensation.​
15/ Russian law forbids conscripts from fighting abroad, but officers have found ways around this. During the Ukraine war, officers have forced conscripts to sign contracts against their wishes by beating them until they gave in.​
16/ One officer recalled what he was told by another officer who forcibly recruited conscripts: "Our officers 'reeled in' guys who were conscripted. The officer says before lights out, we have to 'give birth to a contract soldier', and asks who wants to sign a contract.​
17/ Nobody wants to, and the guys start swinging until somebody gives up and signs it."Similarly, conscripts in the Kursk region have reportedly been threatened with being sent to a penal battalion for 7 years unless they sign a contract.​
18/ Even without the abuse, conscripts face terrible living conditions. In the Russian Navy's training centre located in Lomonosov, Leningrad Region, conscripts reportedly faced worse conditions than convicts and had to live in abandoned barracks buildings.
19/ "The guys were shoved into an abandoned part where there is no canteen. Imported food is disgusting. There is no hot water. There is mould, dampness and one dryer for 180 people in the barracks."​
20/ "Drying socks on radiators is not allowed, everyone wears wet clothes and gets sick. At the same time, there are no medicines, and the paramedic gives only soda and salt to gargle."​
21/ Engineering conscripts in Volgograd faced similar conditions: "There are no elementary medicines in the unit's medical centre, and what parents bring must be hidden from the officers (if it is not taken away immediately after receiving the package)."​
22/ The collapse of Russia's defences in Kursk is no surprise, as something very similar happened in the Graivoron district of the Belgorod region when the Russian Volunteer Corps briefly invaded in May 2023. It was guarded only by 23 conscripts with one officer and one mobik.​
23/ The defenders were routed almost immediately. According to the conscripts, they were not even given brushes and liquids to clean their rifles, radios and other equipment. Those serving on the border were given rifles but no ammunition.​
24/ Their mothers said that in six months of service, the conscripts only went to the firing range once or twice, while their commanders submitted false reports about daily training. The men were assigned to military professions that did not correspond to their training.​
25/ One conscript was made a medic, although he "didn't even know what aspirin and No-Spa [drotaverine] were for". Others were given old grenade launchers and mortars but no training to fire them. Some were not even trained to use their rifles.​
26/ Some of the conscripts were not even given food or water by the army. One conscript told his girlfriend that "they were eating earth there. I laughed and then realised it was no joke." Volunteers and parents brought them fresh clothes and food, which they cooked themselves.​
27/ The conscripts said they were treated badly by their commanders, who made parents feed them as well the conscripts. According to a girlfriend, the officers "drink and get violent", and take out their frustrations on the conscripts under their command.​
28/ The men were in place for months, despite repeatedly having been promised they would be rotated out or withdrawn. This didn't happen, despite appeals to the authorities by their mothers. Many became ill and some contracted pneumonia in the cold, damp dugouts.​
29/ Not surprisingly, morale was low even before the attack. One mother says: "At first the boys had an adventure. Then there was the expectation that they would be relieved, they were promised. And now there is devastation. They feel betrayed and abandoned."​
30/ Given that these issues were publicised by Russian outlets, the Ukrainians certainly know about them. It's no surprise that when they attacked in Kursk, resistance appears to have collapsed quickly and conscripts surrendered in large numbers. /end​
 
Proletarsk fire day 6.