Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[randomradio]

16% is actually very small compared to EU dependencies and they're moving to reduce by 67% at end of 2022 and remove altogether by 2030. Germany got 34% of its crude from Russia, 35% of its gas and 53% of its coal for instance in 2021.

Russia's overall oil and petroleum supplies are 7.8 million bpd as of 2021. 3.6 went to China, the rest 4.2 to the US, Europe and others. Assuming other markets compensate for some of the loss, we can say 50-50. After the initial bluster, the reduction in supplies will be gradual until it's completely eliminated. 2030 is when oil and gas consumption is expected to peak in Europe anyway. In the meantime other buyers of cheaper Russian oil will emerge to compensate, like India, SE Asia, Africa and S. America.

Post 2030, a lot of Third World countries would have become rich enough to absorb more oil into their economies, which will further compensate, until a global peak is reached.

As for gas, the planned reduction by 100bcm is just a goal. It's not necessary it will be reached. The same with the EU plan of fully ending Russian energy supplies by 2027. Words like "bloody hard" and "we can do it" have been used to describe such goals.

Worst case, the Russians could end up helping you achieve your goals even quicker.

It's simple really. EU will consume more ME oil and gas, and traditional users of ME oil and gas will switch to cheaper Russian supplies. It's merely gonna be a marketshare exchange. Plus paying in rubles will benefit the Third World a lot.

Yes, you would criticise, you've criticised for far less on this very forum in posts I have read.

I think you are referring to civilian outrage. I am referring to govts.

 

[randomradio]

Completely WRONG about everything.

Another addition to the long list of things you have will have been exposed for having no clue about. Why don't you try taking more pessimistic stances esp. w.r.t to India. It would be actually useful. You would remain entirely wrong but your powers would be used for the greater good.

Lol. What I said is true. If something's wrong, it requires a rebuttal.

India and China will grow and will want to replace dollar's influence. You are living in lala land if you think India wants the dollar to continue its hold in the global economy. Whether it takes 10 years or 20 years or more is irrelevant. Both India and China are considering digital currencies to challenge USD.

Get educated:

Besides China, Putin Has Another Potential De-dollarization Partner in Asia

Within two weeks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States and its allies have collectively imposed a series of sanctions to isolate Russia’s financial system. Recent stringent Western sanct…

www.cfr.org

Russia used to need $80 per barrel in 2014, which reduced to $44. Now, if ruble stays at 100 to a dollar, the budget balance cost will reduce to $30, for the same level of exports. If Russian exports fall by 30%, then their break even point will remain $44. I don't need to tell you what the price of oil today is. Again, this stuff is official.

You also forget that Russia has a massive surplus.

Russia posts record 2021 current account surplus of $120.3 bln

MOSCOW — Russia ran a record high current account surplus of $120.3 billion in 2021, up from $36.0 billion in 2020, central bank data showed on Tuesday.

financialpost.com

Interesting article:

Russia Exploits Two Big Holes in Financial Sanctions

The country can sell all the fossil fuels it likes and use the earnings to support the ruble or import the tools of war.

www.bloomberg.com

Where the sanctions and the economic restrictions have had more impact is on Russia’s imports, which have collapsed, according to the IIF. That means Russia’s current account surplus — the excess of its earnings from exports over its spending on imports — might reach $250 billion this year, up from $120 billion last year, which was already the biggest annual surplus in more than two decades, according to the IIF.

India and China have initiated trade in rubles, pegged to the USD. The Saudis are considering accepting yuans for Chinese supplies. Turkey is also moving to trading with Russia in rubles.

 

[randomradio]

​

Here is the table of Russian and Ukrainian losses of different categories of equipment. This data is taken from the website oryxspioenkop.com on the following page: Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

​

What can be noticed by going to this site to have the details of the destruction and other losses is that the Russian inventory decreases while the Ukrainian one increases.

For example for tanks if we refer to oryxspioenkop.com where the figures are a little different because there has been an update we have

• Tanks lost by Russians 308, of which destroyed: 129, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 131
• Tanks lost by Ukrainians 79, of which destroyed: 26, abandoned: 9, captured: 42

So the Russian inventory varies from 42 + 9 - 308 = - 257
And the Ukrainian inventory of 42 + 131 - 79 = + 94

Most Ukrainian losses will be inside the cities where they are hiding in though. Whereas the site is relying on Russians outside cities that come across such losses on roads and fields rather than inside cities. Russian losses are also primarily around cities, with much easier access to the Ukrainians.

By default we know actual losses will be more than what's covered by the site. But the captured materials should easily offset many of Ukrainian losses.

 

[randomradio]

Nothing wrong with what companies are doing. A reorientation is required for earlier planned investments after all.

 

[Soldier35]

The Russian army used new weapons for the first time in Ukraine, the work of the remote mining engineering system "Agriculture" was filmed near Kharkov. The video shows the moment of remote installation of minefields. The operation of this installation is similar to the work of the Grad MLRS. The difference is that instead of the warhead of a 122 mm rocket, they carry cassettes with mines. After the installation of mines, this territory is plotted on an electronic map, there is no need to carry out mine clearance manually, mines can be remotely deactivated.

Movement of a column of Russian military equipment of airborne units to the area of combat missions in the Kiev region

 

[BMD]

Nothing wrong with what companies are doing. A reorientation is required for earlier planned investments after all.

That's the other side of this, people will not want to invest in Russia for years to come, because their money will not be safe there.

 

[_Anonymous_]

That's the other side of this, people will not want to invest in Russia for years to come, because their money will not be safe there.

Forget Russia, post Brexit, what are the kind of investments UK is attracting & what's the figure like for those businesses exiting, Paddy?

When your pant is full of holes in inappropriate places you don't go about sticking your fingers in the same holes of someone else's pants.

 

[BMD]

Russia's overall oil and petroleum supplies are 7.8 million bpd as of 2021. 3.6 went to China, the rest 4.2 to the US, Europe and others. Assuming other markets compensate for some of the loss, we can say 50-50. After the initial bluster, the reduction in supplies will be gradual until it's completely eliminated. 2030 is when oil and gas consumption is expected to peak in Europe anyway. In the meantime other buyers of cheaper Russian oil will emerge to compensate, like India, SE Asia, Africa and S. America.

Post 2030, a lot of Third World countries would have become rich enough to absorb more oil into their economies, which will further compensate, until a global peak is reached.

As for gas, the planned reduction by 100bcm is just a goal. It's not necessary it will be reached. The same with the EU plan of fully ending Russian energy supplies by 2027. Words like "bloody hard" and "we can do it" have been used to describe such goals.

Worst case, the Russians could end up helping you achieve your goals even quicker.

It's simple really. EU will consume more ME oil and gas, and traditional users of ME oil and gas will switch to cheaper Russian supplies. It's merely gonna be a marketshare exchange. Plus paying in rubles will benefit the Third World a lot.



I think you are referring to civilian outrage. I am referring to govts.

I just linked you proof showing that only 16% comes from Russia, the EU is more than twice as dependent and they are switching. China could easily do the same if Russia tried play hardball.

That does not help Russia have sway over China, which is what this debate was originally about.

They will manage, and China is only half as dependent, once again Russia has no sway over China.

Good, if they do. They'll hurt us a little and bankrupt themselves.

More gas will come from the US too. Paying in rubles would force the third world to buy and store a weaker currency than the $, which would impoverish them. Russia might sell oil in rubles but the global price will go up and down in $s. So they'll buy $2m worth of rubles and when they come to buy the oil it might only be worth $1.5m, so they've lost 25% of their money.

In democracies civilian outrage is represented by the government.

 

[BMD]

155 Bonus can be fire with 152 Ukrainian artillery with their specific propellant charge.

That sounds like a way forward then. Artillery would become very suspiciously accurate then.

 

[BMD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508174922837012480

It's not really about neutral status and NATO, it's about oil & gas in the East and EU membership for Russia. NATO was a red herring.

 

[_Anonymous_]

It's not really about neutral status and NATO, it's about oil & gas in the East and EU membership for Russia. NATO was a red herring.

So let's get this right Paddy. The Ukrainian Army now has a tank force larger than what they did at the beginning of the war courtesy the Ru Army . They've assassinated more than 2 dozens of senior commanders of the Ru Army including senior generals.

They've shot down 100 if not more aircrafts & heptrs of the Ru Army + Ru AF yet the comedian is talking of neutrality now. I hope he isn't doing his stand up routine. Assuming he isn't , what gives ?

 

[randomradio]

That's the other side of this, people will not want to invest in Russia for years to come, because their money will not be safe there.

Depends on the level of stability Russia ensures once the worst is over. As long as growth comes back, investors will come back. It's still a 140 million strong nation and is relatively richer than most other countries in the world.

 

[randomradio]

I just linked you proof showing that only 16% comes from Russia, the EU is more than twice as dependent and they are switching. China could easily do the same if Russia tried play hardball.

That does not help Russia have sway over China, which is what this debate was originally about.

They will manage, and China is only half as dependent, once again Russia has no sway over China.

Good, if they do. They'll hurt us a little and bankrupt themselves.

More gas will come from the US too. Paying in rubles would force the third world to buy and store a weaker currency than the $, which would impoverish them. Russia might sell oil in rubles but the global price will go up and down in $s. So they'll buy $2m worth of rubles and when they come to buy the oil it might only be worth $1.5m, so they've lost 25% of their money.

Countries like India and China require cheap energy to remain competitive. With growth slowing in China to developed country levels and with their quality of life being nowhere as good as a developed country, they need all the cheap energy they can get. That's what they need to make them competitive for the next 10-15 years. The EU doesn't face the same problem because of the higher productivity of the population allowing them to create higher value goods.

Replacing Russia is an uphill task. The Russians give the EU up to 180 bcm, the Americans plan to give 15 bcm this year and up to 50 bcm by 2030. It's a very long journey. EU's main suppliers for gas will be in the ME. Syria was supposed to give Europe access to ME gas via pipeline, hence the war in Syria.

In any case, once the war is over and the Russians get what they want and retreat, some of the sanctions will be rolled back.

In democracies civilian outrage is represented by the government.

Nope. Realpolitik kicks in gear when it comes to foreign policy. Or else Pakistan would have gone to war with America a dozen times a year if their foreign policy was based on public opinion.

 

[_Anonymous_]

All the old routes of those pipelines don't take into account the newly established relationship between the Gulf Sheikdoms & Israel .

I think in the next couple of years we're going to see enhanced co operation with Israel by those Gulf Sheikdoms & redrawing of those pipeline routes. However , all this would still take a decade if not more to materialize which still doesn't address the 2030 deadlines set . Nor , if I may add , would any breakthrough technology like hydrogen or any alternative compensate for oil & gas from Russia in the said T/L.

In other words Paddy , for your simplistic brain to comprehend Germany France et al i.e all those dependant on Oil Gas & Coal from Russia are up shit creek without a paddle & there's nothing they can do about it . Putin will end up having the last laugh.

Muahahahahahaha.

 

[_Anonymous_]

T&Cs as applicable.

 

[_Anonymous_]

 

[_Anonymous_]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508322002662133762

Ukraine being assisted & encouraged by the US & EU / NATO .

 

[The enlightened]

Lieutenant General Andrey Nikolaevich Mordvichev

Dunno how to embed Telegram

Kadyrov arrived in Mariupol and met General Mordvichev, "LONG KILLED" by Ukraine

 

[The enlightened]

Lol. What I said is true. If something's wrong, it requires a rebuttal.

India and China will grow and will want to replace dollar's influence. You are living in lala land if you think India wants the dollar to continue its hold in the global economy. Whether it takes 10 years or 20 years or more is irrelevant. Both India and China are considering digital currencies to challenge USD.

Get educated:

Besides China, Putin Has Another Potential De-dollarization Partner in Asia

Within two weeks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States and its allies have collectively imposed a series of sanctions to isolate Russia’s financial system. Recent stringent Western sanct…

www.cfr.org

Russia used to need $80 per barrel in 2014, which reduced to $44. Now, if ruble stays at 100 to a dollar, the budget balance cost will reduce to $30, for the same level of exports. If Russian exports fall by 30%, then their break even point will remain $44. I don't need to tell you what the price of oil today is. Again, this stuff is official.

You also forget that Russia has a massive surplus.

Russia posts record 2021 current account surplus of $120.3 bln

MOSCOW — Russia ran a record high current account surplus of $120.3 billion in 2021, up from $36.0 billion in 2020, central bank data showed on Tuesday.

financialpost.com

Interesting article:

Russia Exploits Two Big Holes in Financial Sanctions

The country can sell all the fossil fuels it likes and use the earnings to support the ruble or import the tools of war.

www.bloomberg.com

Where the sanctions and the economic restrictions have had more impact is on Russia’s imports, which have collapsed, according to the IIF. That means Russia’s current account surplus — the excess of its earnings from exports over its spending on imports — might reach $250 billion this year, up from $120 billion last year, which was already the biggest annual surplus in more than two decades, according to the IIF.

India and China have initiated trade in rubles, pegged to the USD. The Saudis are considering accepting yuans for Chinese supplies. Turkey is also moving to trading with Russia in rubles.

To replace US Dollar, you need a country both ABLE and WILLING to maintain MASSIVE TRADE DEFICITS. Nobody can do that, either now or twenty years from now.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

For Whatever its worth , I found this thread on Twitter

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508124370186616838