Update on operations in Ukraine 7 April 2022
General situation
Complete evacuation of northern Ukraine. The three Russian armies engaged to the west and north of Kiev are being recompleted in Belarus and are probably unfit for combat. The 2nd AG and the 6th A held the eastern border between Soumy and Kharkiv. The 1st ABG was transferred to the Donbass-North sector in preparation for the decisive battle in April. Apart from Mariupol, the other sectors were only subject to limited operations.
Specific situations
Donbass-North
The Donbass-North combat zone can be divided into three sectors: Yzioum, the Donets River opposite the Sloviansk-Kabarovsk stronghold and Severodonetsk. The whole seems to have been taken into account by the staff of the 1st Armoured Guards Army, which came from the Soumy region, and which took under its command, and then that of the divisional staffs (3rd DM, 144th DM), around ten GTIAs and probably also the 106th Airborne Division, which had not been very involved until then. When this attacking mass was worn out in battle at the end of April/beginning of May, the Russian capacity for manoeuvre would be reduced to little. Whatever happens at that point, a long operational pause will probably be necessary.
Facing the 1st ABG, in the Yzium sector Ukrainian forces were reduced to three regular units: the 25th Airborne and the 81st and 95th Air Assault Brigades (in reality mechanised infantry brigades). The Sloviansk-Kabarovsk stronghold is firmly held by the 57th motorised brigade and several territorial or paramilitary units (police, organised militia) and Severodonetsk by the 79th Air Assault Brigade and again several territorial and paramilitary units.
The Ukrainian forces in the area represent 1/6th of the total forces. They are of good tactical level and are based on solid positions but they are already worn out.
The Russian intention is clearly to seize the Severdonetsk salient in the east as quickly as possible and above all in the west to push from Yzium towards Bervinkove, a small town of 8,000 inhabitants 30 km west of Sloviansk held by the 85th Brigade. For the time being, the aim is not to capture the Sloviansk-Kabarovsk urban stronghold but to bypass it.
Eastern Donbass
The 2nd LNR Army Corps accompanied the Russian action against Severodonetsk from the east and tried to capture Popasna, held by the 24th Ukrainian mechanised brigade, further south.
The 1st DNR Army Corps is still trying to advance westwards from the town of Donetsk on the N15 and above all the E50 motorway, but the 95th Air Assault Brigade is resisting on fortified positions.
South Donbass
The Russians are still advancing in Mariupol but very slowly. There is complete uncertainty as to when the city will be taken. It seems difficult to imagine that the Russian 150th motorised division will be able to carry on another battle at the end, for example in the direction of Zaporijjia.
Balance of forces in the Southern Donbass line between three defending Ukrainian brigades (59th, 56th and 53rd motorised/mechanised) and the Russian 42nd motorised division. The capture of Zaporizhia would be of great interest to the Russians, but for the moment they are content to bomb the town, no doubt waiting for the means to attack.
Southwest
Ukrainian attacks on Kherson from Kryvyi Rhi and Mykolayev. The recapture of Kherson by Ukrainian forces and the crossing of the Dnieper River would be a major blow to the Russians, but it is highly unlikely.
