It's not going quite as Putin had hoped:
- The first day we see roughly equal losses, the surprise of the attack hurt the Ukrainian army very much... But the failed attacks on Kharkiv and on the eastern front hurt very much. Plus some ambushes. Big work by Russian infiltrators. Russian losses in the apocalypse now-style operation on Antonv airport difficult to quantify (and the same on the Ukrainian side later when Russian reinforcements arrived).
- Second difficult day for the Ukrainians, it's progressing everywhere. The saboteurs continue their work, the infiltrated troops still do some damage but start to suffer (this kind of strategy never lasts very long, I'm appalled by the number of agents lined up by the Russians, they will gradually be all neutralized so lost as the ground is not conquered fast enough). The Russian columns are advancing everywhere but it's starting to block north of Kiev, in the south the Russians are crossing the Dnieper with a few hundred vehicles towards the west (be careful, this is important).
- During the night we don't know how (no huge fighting) the Ukrainians take back the bridges on the Dnieper (after having taken them back and lost them during the day) and hold on in Kiev. Obviously the airborne operations to encircle Kiev are going very badly (the southern roads are still open today). The Russian vehicles that crossed the Dnieper in the south did not cross it again in the other direction. And no picture of their advance today, it is not hard to guess why (in fact they account for a lot of the broken down or abandoned convoys).
And in today's deluge of videos showing Russian losses, we saw in the 200 prisoners, 100 dead, 5 abandoned columns, 4 others destroyed and an incredible number of isolated wrecks and very few Ukrainian losses. This does not mean that there are no Ukrainian casualties, because the Ukrainian telephone operator has cut off the roaming for Russian and Belarusian subscribers. So no more internet. No more videos of their successes. And soldiers in the dark about what's going on because their only source of information is their radio. Saboteurs and infiltrators are now dropping like flies (about a hundred arrested on video).
And finally, the column of 400 Russian vehicles on the eastern bank of the Dnieper going towards Kiev did not move for more than 6 hours today and was still 37km away this evening.
In short, the day has been disastrous in terms of losses for the Russians, who have abandoned their units that crossed the Dnieper from the Crimea, who are suffering enormously in Kharkiv, who have units broken down everywhere and who are not advancing towards Kiev.
But they've been pushing hard to advance on Marioupol and tonight the city is almost surrounded, due to the fact that they haven't swept the ground behind them at all and that as long as they don't break through the front line to join the units arriving on the other side, they won't have any supplies (they need to break through quickly).
Last point, these are the figures published by the Russians this morning: 150+ Ukrainian prisoners (to quote). After 48 hours this shows a problem on the number of prisoners compared to their advance.
So nothing decisive, Kiev has little chance to fall tonight but nothing is decided.